Best Case, Worst Case, And Reasonable Expectations For The Ravens Positional Groups

The 2024 NFL season begins Thursday night with Baltimore facing the Chiefs in Kansas City.

As the year begins, what are the best case, and worst case scenarios for the Ravens positional groups?

What are ultimately the reasonable expectations we should have for each unit?

WR:  Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholar, Tylan Wallace, Denote Harty, Devontez Walker

Best Case: Flowers builds off of his productive rookie season (77 catches, 858 yards, 5 TD’s), and increases his Yards Per Reception (11.1) from last year. Year 4 is the breakout year for Bateman. Bateman becomes the reliable move-the-chains WR the Ravens need him to be, and puts up approximately 70 catches, and 800 yards. The numbers don’t need to be flashy, but he needs to show up each game, and his presence needs to be felt. Nelson Agholor has been consistently healthy in his career. That continues for another year at age 31.  In ’21 the Baltimore native Harty averaged 15.8 ypc on 36 grabs.  Walker was drafted to stretch the field. You want to be able to pick spots for him, where he has a chance to take the top off of defenses.  Wallace was a very productive college WR at Oklahoma State, and has been a plus Special Teams player as a pro.

Worst Case: The worst case is that either Flowers or Bateman misses significant time. Bateman did suit up for 16 games in ’23, but was limited to 7 in ’22, and 12 in ’21. The next worst case is that Bateman does regularly play, but there are long-stretches where you don’t even notice him on the field. Agholor continuing to be a reliable 3rd WR is reasonable. If injuries force him to be one of the top two WR’s, that’s a problem. After having those 36 catches in ’21, Harty has had just 17 over the last two years. Might be a usable 4th WR, but again it’s a problem if he has to relied on. Walker is a rookie, and a 4th round pick. You can’t rely on him to give you anything. While Wallace put up big numbers in college, he has had just 7 receptions in 3 years as a pro.

Reasonable Expectation: If Flowers and Bateman both play 15+ games, the Ravens should get solid WR production.  If the duo combines for anything less than 30 games, WR could become an issue.

TE: Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Charlie Kolar

Best Case: In ’21, Andrews played 17 games and had 101 receptions. Replicating that year is the best case. When Andrews was out of action down the stretch last year, Likely emerged.  WR depth might be a question, but the TE depth is not. Andrews and Likely on the field together, should happen consistently. It’s Year 3 for Kolar. Even with two quality options in-front of him, it’s possible that Kolar finds a couple of grabs per game.

Worst Case: After 17 games played in ’21, Andrews was limited to 15 games in ’22, and 10 games in ’23. He’s now in his 7th year, and turns 29 Friday. Are his best days behind him? Likely was a complete non-factor last year until Andrews got hurt. With Andrews back, will he revert to being invisible?

Reasonable Expectation: Andrews and Likely team to be as good as any 1-2 punch at TE as there is in the league. If WR depth does become an issue, Kolar gets additional time, with the Ravens utilizing all three of their talented TE’s.

Offensive Line: Ronnie Stanley, Andrew Vorhees, Tyler Linderbaum, Daniel Faalele, Patrick Mekari, Josh Jones, Roger Rosengarten, Ben Cleveland, Nick Samac, Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu 

Best Case: Stanley played in 13 games last year. That was his most since ’19, and having played just 18 games total over ’20-’22. Another 13 games feels like best case to me. If he plays at an above-average level when he is available, that would be great. Vorhees was a 1st team All-American at USC in ’22, and then tore his ACL in the ’23 Draft Combine. 6’6, 310lbs, said to be back moving well. There is upside there. A Pro Bowler last year, Linderbaum can become an All-Pro in ’24. The Australian born Faalele is huge at 6’8, 380 lbs. He was a 1st Team All Big-Ten in ’21, and he now enters Year 3 in the league. This is Year 6 for the versatile Mekari, who has 36 career starts under his belt.  If he has to start all year, you hope he’s an average RT.  Best case to me would be that he holds down the fort for a few weeks, and that Rosengarten forces his way into the lineup. Jones was a 3rd round pick of Arizona in 2020. When / if Stanley misses time, can he give the Ravens a viable stand-in? Like Faalele, Cleveland is massive (6’6, 370 lbs). Cleveland was a 3rd round pick out of Georgia in ’21, coming off a 3rd team All-American season in ’20. He gives you solid depth behind Faalele.

Worst Case: The worst case is that Stanley is average at-best when he plays, and misses real time similar to the ’20-’22 seasons. If he doesn’t hold down LT, and Jones isn’t up to the challenge when he plays; things could spiral for the line and the offense as a whole. There is some upside with Vorhees and Faalele, but not a lot of playing experience. Are they ready to perform? I like the profile of Rosengarten, and feel like the Ravens added good talent there in the 2nd round. My first impressions in the limited snaps I saw from him this Spring, is that he has work to do in the weight room. If he isn’t able to force his way into the starting lineup soon, Mekari’s best attribute (versatility) gets limited by his need to be at RT.

Reasonable Expectation: I’m feeling a bit better about the O-Line as the season arrives than I did before camp. I’m buying into the Vorhees, and Faalele upside. I’m feeling good about Jones, Rosengarten, and Cleveland as usable depth. I think it’s unreasonable to expect Stanley to ever again play at his 2019 All-Pro level, but there have been reports of him being in better shape this year. If he gives the Ravens 13 games and plays at an average level, the line might not be a strength, but it shouldn’t be a crippling liability either.

RB / FB: Derrick Henry, Justice Hill, Rasheen Ali, Keaton Mitchell (PUP), Patrick Ricard

Best Case: Henry remains one of the best backs in the league, and helps the Ravens shorten games and punish teams when they lead. It’s not hard to picture the Ravens up in games in the 4th, and opponents getting tired of tackling the imposing 247 lb RB.  It’s Year 5 for Hill, and he’s more than just a Special Teams ACE at this point. He had nearly 400 yards on the ground last year, with 28 receptions. He can make plays in space. After two first-team All-AAC years at East Carolina, Mitchell went undrafted in the ’23 Draft. Baltimore signed the son former Raven Anthony Mitchell, and Keaton came off the Injured List in October and immediately looked like a force. Seeing him go down with the ACL tear in Week 15 was a tough blow. Mitchell will start this year on the PUP list, but is expected back. Ricard is coming off a 2nd team All-Pro season, and is a 4x Pro Bowler. Each year I see comments from Ravens fans saying, “Got to get Ricard off the field more often, and add more play makers. Offense too predictable with him.”  While I understand the predictable argument, I vehemently disagree overall. The physicality he brings, the blocking he brings, is huge. There are teams who are going to cry looking at Henry and Ricard together.

Worst Case: Henry turned 30 in January. He’s piled up over 2,000 carries in his career, and his YPC last year (4.2) was his lowest since 2017. RB’s can get old in a hurry.  Does the tread fall off the tires?

Reasonable Expectation: Henry is not 2020 2,000 yard Henry, but he remains a force. Hill is productive when used, and Mitchell gives the Ravens a potential X-Factor when he becomes available.

QB: Lamar Jackson, Josh Johnson

Best Case: A 3rd MVP for Jackson.

Worst Case: Jackson played 12 games in each of the ’21 and ’22 seasons. If Jackson’s on the field, the Ravens generally win.  If your MVP caliber QB isn’t available for significant stretches of time, obviously that changes your potential fortunes.

Reasonable Expectation: Another high quality year. Maybe his yards per attempt on the ground ticks back up after his reported weight loss.  The reasonable expectation is that he’ll get a lot of credit when things go right, and blame when things go wrong. At all points during the year, the narrative from most people will be, “He has to show something in the post-season.” 

Defensive Line: Justin Madubuike, Michael Pierce, Travis Jones, Broderick Washington, Brent Urban

Best Case: Madubuike is coming off a 2nd team All-Pro season, continues to be excellent. After a torn-biceps limited him to 3 games in ’22, Pierce played all 17 games in ’23. Jones is entering his 3rd year, and expectations are high for him.

Worst Case: Washington and Urban are both solid depth, but the prospects for the line change dramatically if one of the starters go down.

Reasonable Expectation: An above-average group which becomes excellent if Jones’ breaks out.

Linebackers: Odafe Oweh, Roquan Smith, Trenton Simpson, Kyle Van Noy, David Ojabo, Chris Board, Malik Harrison, Tavius Robinson, Adisa Isaac

Best Case: Smith is the All-Pro, and a true leader.  Oweh has flashed at times. In Year 4, maybe he puts it all together.  Simpson is immediately productive, and Van Noy replicates his ’23 production. Now in his 3rd year, Ojabo is now beyond the torn Achilles he suffered at the 2022 Michigan Pro Day, and shows an ability to regularly help on 3rd down. Adisa Isaac – coming off his 1st team All Big-Ten season – takes advantage of any playing time he gets, and helps give the Ravens some pass rush later in the season.

Worst Case: Oweh remains inconsistent.  Simpson spends most of ’24 learning on the job, and is a big drop down from ’23 Patrick Queen. 33 year old Van Noy is not able to match the career high 9 sacks he had last year. Ojabo doesn’t stay on the field long consistently enough to factor, and Isaac isn’t ready to produce.

Reasonable Expectation: Smith by himself means the Ravens have one of the best linebacker groups in the league. If the light fully turned on for Oweh, and Ojabo could stay on the field; it’s fun to think about what the could achieve. Reasonably, you can expect some help from Oweh, but maybe less than you’d hope for.  Ojabo you have to completely wait and see.  I think Simpson will be solid, helped by being next to Smith. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect him to be as good as Queen was last year.

Secondary: Brandon Stephens, Kyle Hamilton, Marcus Williams, Marlon Humphrey, Nate Wiggins, Jalyn Armour-Davis, Eddie Jackson, Ar’Darius Washington, TJ Tampa, Beau Brade, Sanoussi Kane

Best Case: There is definitely a scenario where the Ravens have the best Secondary in the league. Stephens should have been a Pro Bowler last year. Hamilton was an All-Pro.  Williams is a play maker whenever he’s on the field. Humphrey is a 3x Pro Bowler, 1x All-Pro.  Wiggins was the Ravens 1st round pick.  If that group is regularly on the field together, good luck to opposing passing attacks.

Worst Case: Humphrey didn’t look right in his 10 games last year after his foot injury.  Williams has played in just 20 games over his first two years with the Ravens. Wiggins looks frail. Can he hold up all year, if he’s needed for more snaps than currently anticipated?

Reasonable Expectation: Williams will miss some time. Humphrey doesn’t get back to his ’19 All Pro levels, but he’s better than he was last year.  Armour-Davis, Washington, Tampa, and Brade give the Ravens useful snaps. Stephens is very good. Wiggins looks excellent in coverage, and is fantastic as a 3rd Corner. Hamilton is maybe the best Safety in the game.

Special Teams: Jordan Stout, Justin Tucker, Nick Moore, Harty

Best Case: Tucker is / remains the best Kicker in the league.  In ’19, Harty was a Pro Bowler for his work in the return game.

Worst Case: Tucker missed 5 FG’s in 2023, and only made one kick over 50 yards over 5 attempts.  Worst case is this is the start of a slide.

Reasonable Expectation:  If Tucker is no longer the absolute best, he’ll still be among the best.