Week 1 Quick Hits
- #1 Georgia looked as good as advertised in its 34-2 win over Clemson. After a slow start in the 1st Half by the offense, the Bulldogs ripped off four touchdowns on their first five 2nd half possessions. Their defense was stifling for all 60 minutes. They allowed just 188 yards total and only 46 rushing yards on 23 attempts. The Dawgs will face tougher competition as the season wears on, but as of today they are the team to beat.
- I’m not sure what else to say about the decline of Clemson that hasn’t been said over the last three seasons. It’s pretty clear they are no longer among the sport’s elite. The elephant in the room is obviously Dabo Swinney’s refusal to take players from the transfer portal. In the portal/NIL era, it’s akin to going into a boxing match with one hand tied behind your back. That said, there are other issues. They are obviously lacking in the elite QB play that they had with Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence behind center. There are no playmakers for opposing defenses to fear. After enjoying years of coaching stability during their great run from 2015-2020, they have had to adapt to a lot of turnover on the staff. It all adds up.
- No one is suggesting Swinney needs to go all Deion Sanders or Mike Norvell when it comes to the portal. The Tigers still recruit enough quality high school talent to maintain a decent foundation. They just need to find a handful of impact players to fill some gaps. A great example of a program who selectively takes portal players to fill-in here and there was right across the sideline from them last Saturday. Georgia took just 11 players from the portal this past offseason. Two of those players, WRs Colbie Young and London Humphreys, scored TDs against the Tigers. Don’t you think just a few guys like that could make a difference for the Tigers?
- Speaking of Florida State’s Mike Norvell, we now have a great example of the other extreme to Clemson, demonstrating you can’t expect to build a team almost entirely via the portal….at least not if you want sustained success. Nearly every impact player on last year’s 13-0 ACC champion came via the transfer portal. Some did stay for more than one season (QB Jordan Travis actually transferred in while Willie Taggart was still coaching), but they haven’t recruited the high school talent that other elite teams have. To use an NFL analogy, the most successful teams build their foundation via the draft, then fill in the rest via free agency and trades. Consider high school recruiting to be the equivalent of the draft, and the transfer portal to be free agency, and that’s pretty much the same formula college programs should emulate.
- With the Seminoles now 0-2 in ACC play, it looks bleak for them to make the CFP. (Side Note: It seems odd that a team would open its season with two straight conference games. Whoever made the Seminoles’ schedule did not do them any favors). Time will tell how good Georgia Tech and Boston College actually are, but one thing is clear regarding FSU: they can’t run the ball and they can’t stop the run. Barring a big turnaround in those departments, wins will be hard to come by in Tallahassee.
- Miami has to be the prohibitive favorite in ACC after Week 1. That was quite a beatdown they put on Florida in The Swamp. Unlike the Seminoles, the Canes look very strong on both lines. Add to that the play of transfer QB Cam Ward, who for at least one day provided the kind of playmaking at QB Miami has lacked for seemingly decades, and perhaps there is [finally] a very special season brewing in Coral Gables. I still have my doubts about Mario Cristobal’s game and clock management abilities (there were a couple head-scratching decisions in the 41-17 win)….but between the talent they’ve assembled and the obvious issues Clemson and Florida State have, it may not matter as Miami gears up for a run at its first ever ACC title and CFP appearance.
- Meanwhile, in Gainesville Billy Napier greatly extended his odds of being the first head coach fired (-300) over Arkansas’ Sam Pittman (+200). About the only silver lining for the Gator faithful was a chance to see 5-star freshman QB DJ Lagway in what was essentially garbage time. For what it’s worth, Lagway did look promising in leading the Gators on their best offensive possession of the game while the Hurricanes were still playing many of their defensive starters. Of course that could all be for naught if Napier does get fired and Lagway decides to head for the transfer portal. Oof.
- Count me among those who isn’t overly concerned about Oregon’s struggles against Idaho. The 10-point margin of victory over the Vandals definitely belies some of the statistics. The Ducks out-gained the Vandals 487 yards to 217. QB Dillon Gabriel was 41-of-49 for 380 yards and 2 TDs. Oregon nearly doubled-up Idaho in time of possession. Meanwhile Idaho’s first TD came on a gimmick play and their second TD was set up by one.
- There are still areas that clearly need improvement for Oregon, primarily the offensive line. Gabriel was often throwing under pressure and the Ducks averaged a paltry 2.9 yards per rush. Idaho’s defense also sold out in preventing Oregon from getting big plays. The Vandals also got some key defensive stops on their end of the field. That won’t cut it for the Ducks this week against a Boise State team that features a potent offense led by Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty at RB.
- Still, no need to overreact. While it was a different team, in ’21 Oregon opened the season at home with a shaky 7-point win over Fresno State….then the very next week went into The Horseshoe and beat Ohio State.
- Count me among those who were impressed with USC’s win against LSU Sunday night. I was definitely among the skeptics in the belief that Lincoln Riley would realize the goal of changing his entire approach towards defense in one offseason (if he would be able to do it at all). It’s still early, and the Big Ten season has a way of exposing your warts, but while it’s not a Top 10 unit by any means I’d say the Trojans are at least trending in the right direction. One wonders, if only Riley had placed this sort of emphasis on that side of the ball while he had Caleb Williams?
- As for LSU, they might want to take a look at their scheduling. In the Brian Kelly era they are 0-3 in season openers. All three were at neutral sites against power conference foes (USC, and FSU in ’22 and ’23). They’ll switch it up somewhat next season by opening at….Clemson. Best hope Dabo keeps tilting at windmills regarding the transfer portal.
My Top 12
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Texas
- Alabama
- Oregon
- Penn State
- Ole Miss
- Notre Dame
- Missouri
- Michigan
- Utah
- Miami
Week 2 Picks
Texas at Michigan, Noon ET, FOX (Texas -7) – Beyond RB Donovan Edwards I don’t think Michigan’s offense, which has so many new faces from last season, can keep up with a loaded Longhorns squad.
Iowa State at Iowa, 3:30pm ET, CBS (Iowa -2.5) – I know it was only Illinois State, but anytime the Iowa offense puts up 40 points in a game you take notice. This should still be a low-scoring affair, but I’m confident the Hawkeyes can cover at home.
Tennessee at NC State, 7:30pm ET, ABC (Tennessee -7.5) – Not making a big deal over the Pack’s struggles Week 1 against Western Carolina (they trailed headed into the 4th Qtr), but I think the Vols and Nico Iamaleava are set to announce themselves to the nation as a playoff contender.
Boise State at Oregon, 10pm ET, Peacock (Oregon -19.5) – As I mentioned above, I’m also not worried about the Ducks Week 1 showing. Their offense should be more productive against what was a very leaky Bronco defense at Georgia Southern. And while the stout Ducks defense is unlikely to shut down Ashton Jeanty, they should slow him just enough to cover.
Mike Lowe
College Football Analyst
Mike is a Baltimore native living in Portland, OR since 2007. He currently runs his own business specializing in video production and online marketing. Prior to that he was a legal technology consultant, worked for 9 years at Johns Hopkins University and served 6 years in the Air Force. He also enjoys travel, food, beer, and is a volunteer at the Oregon Humane Society.