Orioles: Quick Hits September 13th

After a day off yesterday, the Baltimore Orioles begin a 3 game series in Detroit tonight.

The O’s remain 19 games over .500 (83-64) and have a 99.7% chance of making the post-season; but there isn’t a lot of enthusiasm to be found in Birdland currently.

There are 15 games remaining in the O’s 2024 regular season, with 6 coming against the Tigers.

Since obtaining a high water mark of 24 games over .500 on July 7th (57-33); it has been a slog for the Birds these last 57 games (26-31).

Some thoughts on what we’ve seen this year, and what awaits.

The Need To Blame Someone

When results fail to match expectations, the normal question is what went wrong?

With the Orioles struggles over the past two months, numerous theories have been put forth on what has been the primary issue.

The Charge: The O’s players aren’t responding to Manager Brandon Hyde. They’re undisciplined, and unmotivated.
My Take: I don’t know if the O’s are or are not responding to Hyde. Whatever you think of him as an in-game tactician, his teams have typically played hard.

The Charge: The offensive approach is poor, look at the hitting coaches.
My Take: The O’s offense can be very hit or miss, but they’re also 4th overall in runs scored, 3rd overall in slugging, and 11th in on-base %.
As hot and cold as the offense can ‘feel’, how much nitpicking can you do when they’re 4th overall in runs scored?

The Charge: Ultimately it was the failures of the Front Office in both the off-season, and the trading deadline.
My Take: I’ll grant you the O’s could have done more last Winter or at the Deadline; but bear in mind the Ownership change had not occurred until right at the beginning of this year, which reasonably would have impacted decision making. My primary issue with the deadline is that I thought, and still think the O’s definitely needed to add one high leverage reliever. They added some quality power arms, but not guys that have a dependable track record. Eflin has been great as an Oriole, but there should have been a second starter acquired better than Rogers. That all said, I don’t think the deadline is why the O’s haven’t played well for two months.

The Charge: The talent isn’t as good as we thought it was.
My Take: Who are we talking about here? Jackson Holliday and Adley Rutschman?  Holliday has had a very underwhelming initial 168 ab’s, and Rutschman has been in a slump for months. Holliday not immediately hitting the ground running doesn’t make me question his talent.  It just reminds me that development isn’t linear for everyone. Rutschman hasn’t performed to expectations, but I don’t question his ability.

The Charge: There has to be something else going on behind the scenes. Clubhouse disharmony.
My take: Chicken or the egg?  Is there disharmony because you are losing, or are you losing because of disharmony? It’s easy to be happy when things are going well.  When adversity strikes, you have less fun. Coming to work (or the park) becomes more tedious. Fingers start getting pointed.  There could be something else going on.  There doesn’t have to be something else going on.

With all of these aforementioned charges, I largely shrug my shoulders.
Doesn’t mean there aren’t kernels of truth with each of them; but I think the primary issue has been the injuries.
With consistent attrition, at you can’t just plug every hole in the damn.

Felix Bautista was the best closer in baseball last year.
Kyle Bradish finished 4th in the Cy Young balloting.
Grayson Rodriguez last started a game July 31st.
Jordan Westburg made the All-Star team this year, and hasn’t played since July 31st.
Jorge Mateo was giving you more offense than Holliday currently, and better defense.
John Means could have helped the rotation.
Tyler Wells could have helped the bullpen.
Ramon Urias was getting regular playing time and producing when he got hurt.
Jacob Webb has been out since August 2nd.
Danny Coulombe has been out since June 8th.
Ryan Mountcastle has been out since August 22nd.

That’s a lot to overcome.

You Perform Or You Don’t

I’m not questioning the abilities of Holliday and Rutschman; but it’s certainly fair to point out their respective production hasn’t been good enough.

Can also point at Corbin Burnes having an era over 7 in August.
Or Craig Kimbrel becoming largely unusable since the calendar turned to July.
Or Gunnar Henderson having a fantastic sophomore season, but his defense not being consistent enough.
Or Colton Cowser running hot and cold month-to-month.

At some point your best players perform well enough or they don’t.
At some point you collectively hit well enough with Runners In Scoring Position, or you don’t.
At some point your bullpen avoids regularly imploding, or they don’t.

Norby and Ortiz

Joey Ortiz’s standard stats won’t jump out at you, but there’s been a lot to like about Ortiz’s rookie season for Milwaukee. 

Connor Norby has been on a tear with the Marlins.

It’s natural to think about how they could be being utilized if they were still Orioles.

Before Ortiz was traded, I had said I wanted to see him begin the year as the O’s SS, with Henderson at 3rd.
Thought the defense would be elite, and you could evaluate where you were with Holliday at mid-year.
Henderson’s has had defensive lapses, but he has all of the physical tools necessary to be an excellent SS.
SS is clearly his position now and for the foreseeable future, and I’m good with that; but I still think he would have been better at 3rd.

For the record, I’d still make the trade with Milwaukee which sent Ortiz (and DL Hall) to the Brewers for Burnes.
Burnes August struggles aside, he’s been a legitimate front-line starter for years. He’s what the O’s needed to be obtaining.
It’s just unfortunate that Bradish wasn’t able to stay healthy.
Loved the idea of being able to put Burnes, Bradish, and Rodriguez out 1,2,3 to start a post-season series.

Reviewing the Deadline moves, I said at the time that I didn’t love the Norby, Kyle Stowers for Trevor Rogers deal.
Rogers has a chance to help the team next year in a 5th starter capacity.
That’s fine, and we can evaluate him next year, after seeing what adjustments the O’s make with him.
But what I didn’t like about the deal was that I thought Norby should have been moved as a sweetener in a larger deal vs. being used as the primary chip for someone like Rogers.

There was no problem from me with trading Norby.
But trading him and not getting a contributing piece back hurt.

Injuries happen.
Under performance (particularly with young players) happens.
Had Norby still been around, it’s quite possible he would have been regularly starting with the O’s since the Westburg injury.

The O’s Position Today

At 83-64, the O’s are 2 games back of the Yankees in the AL East.
The Orioles are currently the lead Wild Card, with a 4.5 game lead on the Kansas City Royals.

If the playoffs began today, the O’s would be facing the Royals in the Best of 3 Wild Card Round.

The O’s went 4-2 vs. KC this year.

ESPN currently gives the O’s the following percentages:

Making The ALDS 64%
Making The ALCS 29%
Making The World Series 15%
Winning The World Series 7%

The Postseason Roster

The postseason roster is 26, and can be reset after each round of the playoffs.

It’s hard to imagine Kimbrel being part of the roster at this point.
They are reluctant to even use him in lower-leverage situations right now.

Obviously the primary question with roster consideration is will the guys current on IL be available?

Webb looks ready to return.
Coulombe is back pitching with the Tides.
Rodriguez threw a side session Wednesday.
Westburg is swinging in the cage, and doing full baseball activities.
Urias told reporters last week that being back before year end was possible.
Mountcastle is expected back before year end.

I’m not sure where he would necessarily fit, but Heston Kjerstad has had 5 games on his rehab assignment and is hitting.

That’s a lot of reinforcements, and a different looking roster vs. what’s available tonight in Detroit.
What you exactly get from them of course will be to be determined, and ultimately the story.

My current guess: 

Starting C) Rutschman (1)
Starting Infield & DH) Urias, Henderson, Westburg, Mountcastle, O’Hearn (5)
Starting OF) Cowser, Mullins, Santander (3)
Bench) McCann, Jimenez, Slater, Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad (6)
Starters) Burnes, Eflin, Rodriguez (3)
Bullpen) Cano, Dominguez, Soto, Perez, Akin, Webb, Coulombe, Suarez (8)

2025

I get that most people aren’t ready to talk about ’25 until ’24 is finished playing out; but a couple of quick thoughts here.

Anthony Santander has an .833 OPS, and 41 homers.
He’s produced vs. both LHP and RHP this year.
If he leaves in Free Agency, the expectation is that Kjerstad takes over in RF.
Santander for his career has a .779 OPS.
Obviously he’s above that level this year.
Kjerstad could be a .750 guy next year, but that’s a drop in offense at the position from this year.

If the O’s were at all comfortable with Coby Mayo’s defense at 3rd, he’d currently be getting all of the starts at the hot corner.
That isn’t happening.
We can expect his O’s future is going to be 1st and DH.
That means Mountcastle is likely traded this off-season.

Even if Mountcastle is traded, and Mayo takes his spot; you then have Mayo and Ryan O’Hearn for 1st and DH next year; with the Orioles desiring to get Rutschman 40-50 games at DH.
The next factor there is Samuel Basallo who is ending ’24 at Norfolk.
Do the O’s believe he can stay behind the plate?
After a half season of at-bats next year at Norfolk, will they want to bring him up?
If so, is O’Hearn moved at that point, with Rutschman and Basallo sharing C and DH?

I’d still make a play at extended Burnes.
My thinking is his best days are likely behind him, but he could still be very good and dependable for several seasons.

I’d be fine with giving him high end average annual value over 3-4 years.
I suspect some other team will be willing to give him the 5-7 years though.
If you can pump up the AAV, and get a shorter-term deal done, I think that would be ideal.
If he’s offered similar dollars per year, over extended years, I unfortunately think you have to say goodbye.

If in your head, you consider Burnes gone after this season ends, then you’ll enter the off-season with Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer, Albert Suarez, and Cade Povich being the projected rotation.
Rogers would go to camp, and compete with Povich.
The clear goal would be finding a starter to hopefully team with Rodriguez and Eflin at the front of the rotation, and knock the others back a spot.
Here are the current would be Free Agents. 

Some of those guys could possibly work on short-term, make good contracts.
I’d think the O’s would be more inclined to pursue a starter via trade.
However, the system isn’t as deep as it was.

Cedric Mullins dug a big hole for himself earlier this year.
Since June, he’s been pretty good. Remarkably, he’s up to a .719 OPS, which looks just like his .721 marks in ’22, and ’23.
With his resurgence over the last few months, you’ll feel fine about him being the CF to begin ’25, vs. feeling like you either needed to pencil in Cowser for CF (and hunt for a new LF), or find another replacement for Mullins in CF.