162 games have been played, and the 2024 regular season is now in the books.
The Baltimore Orioles finished 91-71, and are the lead Wild Card in the American League.
The Kansas City Royals (86-76) are the AL’s 2nd Wild Card, and will be their opponent.
The Royals are one of the biggest stories in baseball, going from a 56-106 last place finish in the AL Central in ’23, to reaching the postseason this year.
The O’s were 4-2 against KC in the regular season.
2024 Regular Season Team Stats
Runs – Orioles 4th, Royals 13th
Batting Average – Orioles 7th, Royals 10th
On-Base % – Orioles 12th, Royals 19th
Slugging – Orioles 3rd, Royals 13th
ERA – Orioles 14th, Royals 8th
Royals Depth Chart
C – Salvador Perez
1B – Yuli Gurriel
2B – Michael Massey
3B – Maikel Garcia
SS – Bobby Witt Jr
LF – MJ Melendez
CF – Kyle Isbel
RF – Adam Frazier
DH – Tommy Pham
SP – Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Brady Singer, Michael Lorenzen
Bullpen – Lucas Erceg, Kris Bubic, Sam Long, John Schreiber, Carlos Hernandez, Angel Zerpa
Bench – Freddy Fermin, Hunter Renfroe, Garrett Hampson, Paul DeJong, Robbie Grossman
Relatively Healthy; The Orioles Again Look Like The Orioles
Heston Kjerstad returned to the Orioles Sept. 15th.
That was followed by the returns of Jordan Westburg, Ryan Mountcastle, Ramon Urias, Danny Coulombe, and Jacob Webb.
The O’s had lost 5 consecutive series before taking 2 of 3 earlier this week in New York.
That was followed by a sweep in Minnesota to end the regular season.
Suddenly the vibes are improving.
Suddenly people who had left the O’s for dead are buying in again.
I guess count me as surprised that some people seem surprised by this uptick in play.
Nearly a fourth of the roster has turned over here in these last two weeks.
Of course they look more like the team they had been before the calendar turned to July.
Getting Back To The Playoffs Is An Accomplishment
For the first time since ’96,’97 the Orioles are in the postseason for back-to-back seasons.
The Orioles had a quality run during the 2012-16 seasons, but despite reaching the postseason three times, there were never any back-to-back trips.
The Orioles are back in the playoffs without one pitch thrown from Felix Bautista.
The Orioles are back in the playoffs with Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells combining for 75 innings.
The Orioles are back in the playoffs with Grayson Rodriguez making his last pitch of the year July 31st.
The Orioles are back in the playoffs with Craig Kimbrel imploding after June.
Before this series with KC begins, take a second to enjoy that this is just Year 2 of what is going to be an extended window of success.
Despite having their share of adversity, the Orioles are back in the playoffs.
The regular season is an extended marathon, to give yourself an opportunity to run a sprint.
Postseason Baseball
ESPN is currently giving the Orioles a 64% chance to beat KC in the Wild Card Series and advance to the ALDS.
Additionally, ESPN gives the O’s a 25% chance to make the ALCS, a 12% chance to make the World Series, and a 5% chance to win the organization’s 4th World Championship.
I’ll say this before a postseason pitch is thrown.
I don’t think postseason baseball tells you all that much.
My opinion on that won’t change if KC wins Games 1 & 2, and sweeps the O’s out of the postseason, or if the O’s are dogpiling Nov. 2nd after winning a 7 game World Series.
The samples are too small.
This Wild Card series is 3 games.
Winning or losing that series will tell you nothing, but plenty of narratives will still be written either way.
The O’s enter this postseason having lost their last 8 playoff games (2014 4-0 to Kansas City in the ALCS, 2016 1-0 to Toronto in the then 1 game Wild Card Round, and 2023 3-0 to Texas in the ALDS).
If the O’s win this Wild Card series, you’ll see some people (maybe even some players) saying they learned from last year. Last years experience helped them now.
If the O’s lose this Wild Card series, you’ll see some people say, “They haven’t learned how to handle the postseason pressure yet.”
Either side of that coin is a joke.
Nothing is going to be learned here.
That doesn’t mean it can’t be enjoyed though.
Again the regular season is about earning this opportunity.
And while I think there is a very high degree of luck on who advances and wins these short-series; that’s ok.
The O’s earned the opportunity to be back in this dance.
Hopefully things break right for them, and they get hot here at the right time.
Baseball – particularly regular season baseball – is different than the other sports.
It’s a daily grind. It’s monotonous. The challenge is showing up each day.
The other sports have analytics, but not to the overwhelming level of baseball.
The increased totality of MLB regular season games (as compared to other sports) allows for further inspection, and analysis.
But even baseball’s best statistical analysts will warn fans each year that it takes time (typically two months of play) for many numbers to stabilize and normalize.
There are some statistical measures (particularly defense, even with the improvements via Statcast) which don’t even necessarily normalize over the course of 162 games.
If we know that it can take two months of play for numbers to normalize, how much can you read into a 3 game, 5 game, or 7 game series?
I don’t think we can.
Yet, you’ll have no problem finding reaction to the pending results.
Some player will be deemed clutch.
Some player will carry a scarlet letter to signify they can’t handle the pressure.
Postseason baseball is different than regular season baseball.
If the regular season is about rigorous repetition and evaluation with daily increased information; than the postseason is about magic, or at-least the illusion thereof.
We aren’t going to learn anything in this short-series, but the O’s have the better roster, and have the homefield advantage.
You grind as a team all year to get to this point.
The Orioles played poorly from July on, because the guys wearing the O’s uniform didn’t pitch well enough, hit well enough, or defend well enough.
The O’s have got some important bodies back, and they look better, as should be expected.
Turn off any inclination at larger evaluation, and just enjoy the moment.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.