Taking A Closer Look At Momentum Entering The Playoffs

It’s hardly a secret that the Baltimore Orioles are entering this year’s postseason after a rather pedestrian end to the regular season. 

After finishing the first half with a record of 58-38, they spent the second half as a .500 team, going 33-33 which included a 13-12 record in September. Of course, their September record does include a 5-1 stretch to end the year but still, it’s fair to say that fans might struggle with optimism about how they finished the year.  

So, let’s put how the Orioles finished this year into context. We’ll begin by looking at how recent teams to make the World Series finished the season before comparing them to the Orioles and then we’ll see how Baltimore’s finish to the season stacks up against everyone else who made this year’s postseason.  

2023 

Texas Rangers (winner): 90-72 overall, 38-33 second half, 15-14 in September/October
Arizona Diamondbacks: 84-78 overall, 32-39 second half, 15-13 in September/October 

You don’t need to go back very far to find a pair of teams who made the World Series without amazing finishes to the regular season.  

Both of last year’s teams had pedestrian performances across September and October, with the Rangers quite notably losing three of four against the Seattle Mariners at the end of the season to hand the division to the Houston Astros.  

Meanwhile, the D-Backs’ 15-13 record to end the year helped them survive a second half where they were seven games below .500. Their 32-39 second-half record was the fourth-worst mark in the National League, but it certainly didn’t seem to matter once they began the postseason. 

2022 

Houston Astros (winner): 106-56 overall, 47-24 second half, 22-9 in September/October
Philadelphia Phillies: 87-75 overall, 38-32 second half, 14-17 in September/October 

While 2023’s World Series featured a pair of teams who didn’t exactly finish the season on a heater, that wasn’t the case for the 2022 Astros. After an 11-10 April, Houston won at least 60 percent of their games in every other month.  

As for the Phillies, they performed better after Joe Girardi’s departure following a 22-29 start, but their improvement under Rob Thomson didn’t include a strong finish to the year. They spent September going on two separate five-game losing streaks and went 2-5 against an Atlanta Braves team they would later eliminate in the Division Series.  

2021  

Atlanta Braves (winner): 88-73 overall, 44-28 second half, 18-11 in September/October
Houston Astros: 95-67 overall, 40-31 second half, 17-13 in September/October 

The Braves were certainly an example of a team who heated up as the year progressed. After losing on June 16, Atlanta was 30-35 and eight games out of first. Following that loss, Atlanta ended the year by going 58-38, a .604 winning percentage that helped them win the NL East by 6.5 games. Their 18-11 record in September/October included a 12-2 heater to finish the season. 

Meanwhile, the 2021 Astros weren’t quite as impressive as their 2022 version, with worse records across the full season, the second half and in September/October. However, it’s not like a 40-31 second half and 17-13 record after August 31 is limping to the finish line, just a demonstration that they did better the following season.  

(2020 didn’t have a 162-game season as you might recall, so we’re skipping it.) 

2019 

Washington Nationals (winner): 93-69 overall, 46-27 second half, 17-11 in September/October
Houston Astros: 107-55 overall, 50-22 second half, 19-6 in September/October 

The Nationals quite infamously began their 2019 season 19-31, sitting 12 games below .500 after they lost on May 23. However, they flipped a switch after that loss and their record after from that point forward was 74-38. As you can guess, that 74-38 record included a 46-27 second half and a 17-11 record in September/October. 

In comparison, the 2019 Astros finished the season better than the Nationals and better than their 2022 and 2021 counterparts. They barely missed a second-half winning percentage of .700 (it was .694) and their 19-6 record in September/October was the best in the American League.  

2018 

Boston Red Sox (winner): 108-54 overall, 40-24 second half, 15-11 in September/October
Los Angeles Dodgers: 92-71 overall, 39-28 second half, 19-9 in September/October 

While the Red Sox definitely had an excellent second half, they still cooled down a bit relative to their first-half pace. They had a .694 winning percentage in the first half and their second-half winning percentage took a mild dip down to .625. Their September was also pedestrian by the standards they had set during the rest of the season, posting their only month with a winning percentage below .600. However, their underperforming in the second half and September didn’t exactly make a dent as they won the World Series in five games. 

Over in Los Angeles, the Dodgers began 2018 in a lukewarm manner, sitting at 30-31 after a loss on June 6 but ended the year going 62-40 with pretty strong records in the second half and in September/October. The Dodgers also had to play an NL West tiebreaker that year, beating the Colorado Rockies in game 163 to give them a bonus boost of momentum entering that year’s postseason. 

So, how do the Orioles stack up? 

Compared to the last ten teams to make a full-season World Series, the Orioles have the second-worst record in the second half, only sitting above last year’s D-Backs. And if they were to win the World Series, they would do so with a second-half record worse than the prior five full-season winners. 

Meanwhile, their record in September/October is slightly better, with their winning percentage ranking higher than the 2023 Rangers and 2022 Phillies. 

In addition to comparing this year’s team to previous pennant winners, it also seems useful to see how their finish to the season ranks relative to everyone else in this year’s postseason. (I’m including the Braves, D-Backs and Mets due to when this will be published even though one of them won’t make it.) 

The Orioles don’t look particularly impressive here either, but if you’re a big believer in momentum then they might’ve gotten pretty lucky to avoid the Detroit Tigers in the Wild Card round.  

The Tigers own the AL’s best record for both the second half and September while the Kansas City Royals had the tenth-best second-half record among possible playoff teams and will be the only team to enter the playoffs with a losing September.