2024 NFL: Previewing Week 5

I think the primary question in the NFL as the league heads into Week 5 is, “Are we sure we know who is good?”

Pittsburgh, Washington, Minnesota, and Seattle are leading their respective divisions.

Are they legitimate? Has their performance been a mirage? Somewhere in-between?

The first few weeks of every season serves as an annual reminder that the NFL is built for parity.
There are always a few true contenders, along with a handful of horrible teams.
Then there is the vast middle, and each week is about availability (health) and individual match-ups.

The league is designed for teams to come up, and for teams to fall back.

Sometimes some previous preconceived notions get erased quickly.

Week 4 Quick Hits

Cowboys 20 Giants 15 – The Cowboys won a game they had to have, but I don’t think anyone came out of that game feeling better about Dallas.

Falcons 26 Saints 24 – Atlanta gets the home win in this NFC South Division game. A 58 yard FG from Younghoe Koo with 2 seconds left for the win. Felt like an even matchup. Two teams capable of winning the South, and the ceiling of winning a game in the playoffs. Atlanta won with Bijan Robinson only having 7 carries. To best help Kurt Cousins, feeding Robinson should be a priority.

Bears 24 Rams 18 – Chicago won with Caleb Williams being held under 160 yards.  Bears RB D’Andre Swift had a big game, after doing absolutely nothing the two previous weeks.

Vikings 31 Packers 29 – I expected Green Bay to win here, but it took Jordan Love too long to wake up after missing the last couple of games. Minnesota was up 28-0, and the Packers almost came all the way back. Kudos to Green Bay for playing their way back into the game, but extra kudos to Minnesota for holding on and getting the divisional road victory. 3 more TD’s for Sam Darnold.  My sense going into the year was that Minnesota was a 7 or 8 win team. Good enough to bite you, but not good enough to be a playoff team. With 4 wins already in the book, the Vikings are in great shape.

Colts 27 Steelers 24 – Understand that going from Anthony Richardson to Joe Flacco must have changed the Steelers defensive game plans; but I would have thought the vaunted Steelers defense would have punt the clamps on regardless. Flacco attacked the Pittsburgh defense, and moved the ball around. While Richarson’s talent is evident, he’s also incredibly raw. Flacco might represent a better chance to win games now. Najee Harris had 19 yards on 13 carries for Pittsburgh.

Broncos 10 Jets 9 – Come on.  Denver was on the road for the 2nd straight week. NY was at home.  Denver’s Bo Nix was 12 of 25 for 60 yards. Aaron Rodgers and the Jets offense couldn’t put up more than 9 points? Breece Hall had 10 carries for 4 yards. That’s a bad loss for a Jets team which believes they are a Super Bowl contender.

Bucs 33 Eagles 16 – Moving on from Head Coach Nick Sirianni seems more likely by the day. There appears to be real dysfunction with the Eagles. Their talent is better than they’ve looked so far.  The Bucs rebounded from their poor showing vs. Denver to get the win here and move to 3-1.

Bengals 34 Panthers 24 – Cincinnati got their first win, but they didn’t dominate their former QB Andy Dalton and the Panthers. Carolina did run for 155 yards. Carolina had 5 players with at-least 3 receptions. On the positive side for Cincinnati, there were more players who added something. Chase Brown and Zack Moss had 30 combined carries. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins combined for 145 yards receiving.

Texans 24 Jags 20 – Not the prettiest game for Houston, but they ended the day 3-1, and had Jacksonville leaving Houston 0-4. Trevor Lawrence is being paid too much to perform as a Top 20 QB.

Commanders 42 Cardinals 14 – Another good night for Jayden Daniels, coupled with 101 yards on the ground from Brian Robinson. Bigger story for me, was the Commanders holding Arizona to 14.  Cards have a decent offense. Washington is supposed to have a poor defense. Washington came up with 4 sacks. If their defense is closer to average vs. being a liability; then maybe DC is in position to win the NFC East.

49ers 30 Patriots 13 – Christian McCaffrey has bilateral Achilles tendinitis. I don’t want to be dismissive of that. There are only so many true difference makers in the game, he’s one of them. Still, Jordan Mason now has three 100+ yard rushing games on the year, and is averaging 4.9 yards per carry.  He hasn’t shown to be a weapon receiving like McCaffrey, but he is giving the Niners regular rushing production. And with SF still having George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings; Brock Purdy has options in the passing game. With the Pats, this should have been Jacoby Brissett’s last game starting.

Raiders 20 Browns 16 – Cleveland is 1-3.  Yes, Deshaun Watson seems washed; but the Browns defense was supposed to be elite. Back-to-back losses vs. the Giants, and Vegas. The Browns got 5.8 yards per carry from Jerome Ford, but he only had 10 carries. Do the Browns move on from Watson as the starter?  Time for Jameis Winston? Vegas got to 2-2, with Gardner Minshew throwing for just 130 yards.

Chiefs 17 Chargers 10 – Justin Herbert suited up, and gave LA a chance.  As the Chargers become increasingly more physical under Harbaugh, this match-up will continue to be more fun.  The Chiefs got to 4-0, but they’ve now lost Hollywood Brown for the year, Isiah Pacheco for sometime at RB, and now Rashee Rice for time to be determined (more tests being taken). Can the Chiefs get past these injuries? Well, it helps having Andy Reid at Head Coach, and Patrick Mahomes at QB.  Start with Travis Kelce, and Xavier Worthy as pass catching weapons.  Kareem Hunt had a good week running the ball (14 carries, 69 yards). Clyde Edwards-Helaire is tracking to get back soon.  JuJu Smith-Schuster had 78 receptions with KC just two years ago. If there is enough blocking up-front, I think the Chiefs can make that mix work.  I’d assume they’d be looking to add another WR to that mix though.  Davonte Adams? Adams is said to want to play with a QB he’s played with before (Rodgers, Jets or Derek Carr, Saints); but I figure he’d be okay playing with Mahomes. Is that a trade the Chiefs can make? Would the Raiders trade him within the division?

Ravens 35 Bills 10 – The Ravens held the Bills to 3 of 13 on 3rd down.  Baltimore ran for 271 yards.  The Ravens controlled the line of scrimmage.

Titans 31 Dolphins 12 – Tyler Huntley’s arm strength is very limited, and that just limits an offense. It’s not just about the inability to throw down the field. Will Levis left the game with a shoulder injury, and Mason Rudolph entered and did a better job moving the Tennessee offense.

Lions 42 Seahawks 29 – Jared Goff was 18 of 18, with 2 TD’s. Both teams are now 3-1.  Geno Smith had 395 yards, and played fine; but I don’t think Seattle’s best formula is him having games with 56 pass attempts.

Week 5 Games

Thursday October 3rd

Tampa Bay at Atlanta – The 3-1 Bucs at the 2-2 Falcons.  ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor gives Atlanta a 53.9% chance of winning. Tampa Bay grabs real control of the division with a win, things stay cloudy if the Falcons win.

Sunday October 6th

New York Jets at Minnesota – One of the more interesting games of the weekend. Every team has a puzzling game here or there, but how the Jets game played out vs. the Broncos last Sunday was odd. Are the Vikings really going to get to 5-0? Darnold gets to play one of his former teams.

Carolina at Chicago – The Panthers are more representative with Dalton starting, but they still aren’t good obviously. Opportunity for Chicago to climb over .500.

Baltimore at Cincinnati – With a win, the Ravens are 3-2, and the Bengals will be 1-4.  If Cincinnati wins, both of these teams are just 2-3 after 5 weeks. Carolina was able to run on the Bengals. That doesn’t bode well for Cincinnati.

Miami at New England – Brissett is apparently starting this game, which means there is literally zero reason to watch.

Cleveland at Washington – The Browns are 0-2 vs. the NFC East already.  Washington is given a 63.2% chance of winning by ESPN’s Predictor. Commanders in position to get to 4-1.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville – The Jags are 3 point favorites at home.  Do they get their first win? Flacco to start for the Colts?

Buffalo at Houston – Bills coming off the beating at Baltimore.  Houston hasn’t looked quite right the last two weeks (loss at Minnesota, win vs. Jacksonville). One team here gets to 4-1.  Stefon Diggs is going to get a ton of discussion before and during the game. Joe Mixon missed practice today for Houston.

Las Vegas at Denver – 2-2 Vegas at 2-2 Denver.  The Raiders have been outscored by 19 points. The Broncos have outscored the opposition by 7 points, and have only allowed 55 points through 4 games.

Arizona at San Francisco – The Niners are 7 points favorites here.  That seems about right.

Green Bay at LA Rams – Love came on as the game Sunday vs Minnesota progressed.  He should look that much more right this week. Doesn’t look like he will have Christian Watson available though. Green Bay really can’t afford to lose here.

New York Giants at Seattle – The Seahawks should grab their third home W, and improve to 4-1.

Dallas at Pittsburgh – Seems like a game which could get ugly for the Cowboys. Dallas can’t run, so Dax Prescott is going to drop back a lot, and probably get hit a lot. Can Dax get hot, and keep Dallas in the game? I’m sure he’s looking at what Indianapolis and Flacco did Sunday and thinking that’s possible. What does Dallas do defensively against the Steelers rushing attack.  Justin Fields will have some designed runs similar to what Lamar had a couple of weeks ago.  Najee Harris isn’t Derrick Henry, but he’s going to get 18-20 rushing attempts. Harris is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Does that low ypc continue, or does he breakout vs. Dallas? Micah Parsons didn’t practice today. Is he going to play? Dallas is definitely going to be without DeMarcus Lawrence who has been placed on IR. On top of that, Dallas isn’t going to have WR Bradin Cooks for this game, as Cooks has an infection.

Monday October 7th

New Orleans at Kansas City – The Chiefs are 5.5 point favorites, and ESPN’s Predictor gives KC a 60.6% chance of winning. I’m curious to see how the Chiefs offense looks. Hollywood Brown didn’t get in a regular season snap this year, but this will be the first game without Rice. The Chiefs have scored less points each week so far (27, 26, 22, 17).