The Baltimore Orioles have been eliminated from the 2024 postseason, after scoring 1 run in two games against the Kansas City Royals.
Other teams will continue to advance, and ultimately another City is going to celebrate a World Championship.
For the Orioles, their attention has to immediately turn to 2025.
How will this team change between now and mid-February when there is a return of pitchers and catchers?
What are the immediate questions that Orioles GM Mike Elias and others will be addressing?
Who’s Leaving?
It seems likely that Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander have played their last games for the Orioles.
If that’s factual, than we can project Heston Kjerstad to replace Santander in RF.
The O’s currently projected ’25 rotation would be Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer, Albert Suarez, and Cade Povich.
It seems apparent that if Burnes is elsewhere in ’25, that the O’s will be looking to add a starting pitcher to join Rodriguez and Eflin at the front of the rotation.
Here is a listing of Free Agents.
I’d be willing to throw Burnes a lot of money per year, but I’m sure I’d be advocating for less years than he figures to find from someone as a Free Agent.
The RHP turns 30 on October 22nd. I think he’s got 3-4 really productive years left in him. I’m pretty sure someone will offer him 5-7 years. I’m completely sure the O’s won’t offer him a deal of that length.
My hunch is that the Orioles will trade Ryan Mountcastle, and free up 1st base for Coby Mayo.
What’s The Everyday Lineup Then?
If Kjerstad takes over for Santander, and I’m right that Mountcastle is traded and replaced by Mayo; then you are looking at a regular lineup of:
Gunnar Henderson SS
Jordan Westburg 3rd
Ryan O’Hearn DH
Kjerstad RF
Adley Rutschman C
Colton Cowser LF
Mayo 1st
Jackson Holliday 2nd
Cedric Mullins CF
Right now Birdland is going to be bitter given the struggles of the past 3 months, followed by this two game series vs. the Royals; but that’s a fun group to look forward to.
Kjerstad isn’t going to match Santander’s 2024 season, but he has a decent chance of approximating Santander’s career averages.
Do Westburg and Cowser have additional ceiling?
After getting their feet wet here in ’24, will Holliday and Mayo be ready to regularly produce in ’25?
Will Rutschman put his ’24 2nd half struggles behind him in ’25?
How Good Will Felix Bautista Be?
Bautista was the best closer in baseball in 2023.
He obviously missed all of 2024.
All signs are that he’ll be ready to go when Spring Training begins.
Will he be ready to again dominate, or is he going to be a work in progress?
Is Brandon Hyde The Guy?
In 2024 baseball, the Manager only makes so many decisions.
Many (if not most) of the in-game decisions have been discussed between the Manager and the Front Office prior to games.
ie, “If this situation occurs, we are doing this.”
Knowing that, I’m not sure how much credit / blame Hyde should get for the in-game decisions we see.
It seems to me that a Manager’s job in ’24 is primarily about his ability to communicate effectively with his Players, the Coaching Staff, the Front Office, and the Media.
You can’t be effective and throw guys under the bus.
You have to be accountable,
You have to hold others accountable.
Does Hyde do a good job with that?
I have zero way of answering that with any insight.
When the Orioles were going through their 2018-2021 struggles, I thought Hyde deserved to get through the other side and lead a quality team.
He’s done that, and the Orioles have won a lot of games these last two years.
Someone closer to the situation needs to evaluate if he’s a true leader of men.
Someone closer to the situation needs to evaluate if he does an effective job of holding players accountable.
I will say, his teams have generally played hard for him.
I’ll also say if you made a change at Manager, would you just be making a change to make a change?
Meaning if you (the Front Office) are communicating most of the in-game decisions to the Manager pre-game, what difference would you be hoping to achieve with a new Manager?
A Gunnar Extension?
Henderson is years away from Free Agency, but he’s only going to continue to get more expensive.
The first big splash of Orioles Owner David Rubenstein’s tenure, should be backing up the Brinks truck for the 23 year old SS.
Write out a number which will look astounding today, and probably seem normal in a few years.
If Henderson declines, he declines, but there should absolutely be a ‘wow’ offer made.
Changes To Waltimore?
I happen to love the current dimensions at Oriole Park.
Love the deep wall, and the extra alley space it created.
I might be in the minority with Oriole fans (and Oriole RH hitters).
Some of that is just my preference of how the game is played.
I prefer lower scoring games vs. the Little League LF the Orioles had for decades.
I also think when you consider the Orioles were 3rd overall in Slugging % this year, it’s hard to argue that the Wall is killing them.
But given the complaints I’m seeing from some Oriole fans, it wouldn’t be shocking to me if the Wall was brought back in some.
Was The 2nd Half & Ouster From The Playoffs Reason To Make Wholesale Changes?
For some, the answer here is going to be a resounding yes.
They’ll point to the lackluster performance from the O’s July 1st on, and the O’s getting swept out of the Playoffs and say changes are clearly needed.
I just can’t get there myself.
For me, the story of ’24 was that the O’s didn’t have Bautista for one pitch.
Got pretty much nothing from Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells.
Lost Westburg and Rodriguez for a couple of months (plus Danny Coulombe, and Jacob Webb).
And that Craig Kimbrel just imploded when the calendar turned to July.
In the last week of the regular season, when the O’s got some guys back, I think we saw the O’s look more like the pre-July O’s.
As far as the Wild Card Series goes, it’s two games.
Philosophically, I just believe there is only so much you can take from two games.
To be a hypocrite though, I’d suggest there should be some consideration about the offensive approach.
Overall, it’s hard to be displeased about the O’s 2024 offense.
As mentioned, they finished 3rd overall in slugging. And most importantly they finished 4th overall in runs scored.
By any measure, that’s a productive offense.
Still, we did see a team that struggled to manufacture runs when the homers weren’t flying.
And people said throughout the year, that is an issue which could be further exploited in the postseason against better pitching, and increased pressure.
The O’s weren’t particularly good hitting with RISP during the year. They missed the limited opportunities they had the last two days.
I still think it’s a very good offense overall, that could be excellent next year (if Holliday and Mayo are productive).
But while I’m all about exit velocity and hitting the ball hard; I’d think some guys (cough Rutschman cough) could be better served by not thinking about launch angle on every pitch.
Take what you are offered, go with the pitch, focus on more on liners to the gap.
Understand game situations better. Meaning if it’s a tie game in the 4th, and you want to try and hit one 500 feet; great.
But if it’s the 8th, and that runner has to be advanced, adjust.
To be fair, I recognize I sound like an old man yelling at the Moon here.
Overall Final Thoughts?
I love the everyday aspect of baseball, and miss it tremendously when it’s gone.
It’s going to be a long wait from now until the O’s gather in Sarasota next February.
If you are broken up about losing this Wild Card series, I’m not going to tell you that you shouldn’t be.
If you are bitter that the O’s got swept out of the ALDS last year, and now swept out of this Wild Card; I get that.
If you are incredibly annoyed that the O’s managed to produce just 1 run in these two games played, I get that too.
But I’d be lying to you, and myself if I acted like I felt the same.
My general take is that anything can happen in a two game series, and there just isn’t that much to take from it.
I think the O’s have a very talented core returning, and I expect they’ll win another 90+ games in 2025.
If I’m down about anything, it’s knowing that Santander and Burnes are likely gone.
Santander (career .776 OPS) had an .814 OPS this year with 44 homers.
He hit well from both sides of the plate, and had some huge moments.
Burnes had a poor August, but finished ’24 with a 2.92 era over 194.1 innings.
He made 32 starts, and gave the O’s a real presence at the front of their rotation.
I think Kjerstad can approximate Santander’s career averages, but you have to expect he won’t match Santander’s ’24.
Can the O’s find another starter that slots up-front with Rodriguez and Eflin?
We will see.
The Orioles are going to have an extended window of contention.
I think they are regularly going to be in the hunt for years.
This was Year 2 of that window.
It didn’t end how any Oriole fan would have hoped.
I’ll be counting down the days until the ’25 season begins, and the O’s get to try again.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.