College Football 2024 – Week 11 Overview

On Tuesday night, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will release their initial rankings.

The people that were largely against the expansion of the CFP, would often talk about how games would mean less.

I think the inverse is proving true.  Yes, in past years, Penn State might have been effectively eliminated from playoff contention with their loss yesterday, and you argue that would have made the stakes of that game even higher.  But when these rankings come out, there is going to be the vast excitement of not just the fanbases which are currently projected to be in, but with the next 4-8 fanbases which will be doing the math, and looking at the remaining schedules and picturing scenarios where they could play themselves into the Tournament.

Let’s review Week 10, and preview Week 11.

All percentages mentioned below, come from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 10 Quick Hits

Boise State 56 San Diego State 24 – 541 total yards for the Broncos, who were 9 of 13 on 3rd down. Boise State held the ball for 39 minutes. The Broncos are at-least an 88% favorite to win in each of their remaining 4 games.

Oregon 38 Michigan 17 –  The Ducks first year in the Big Ten now includes wins over both Ohio State, and the Wolverines. Oregon held Michigan to 3.8 yards per carry on 28 attempts. Oregon has at-least a 76.2% chance of winning each of their remaining 3 games.

Georgia 34 Florida 20 – Carson Beck had 3 picks for the third time this year, and he has 8 picks in his last 3 games. 457 total yards for the Bulldogs, but this offense doesn’t scare you. Defensively they did hold Florida to 259 yards, and limited the Gators to 3 of 16 on 3rd down.

Ohio State 20 Penn State 13 – If I was a Penn State fan, I’m not sure how I’d feel about James Franklin.  He’s at the helm of a program that has had a lot of historical success, but could have fallen off a cliff after the Jerry Sandusky scandal. Since taking over the Nittany Lions in 2014, he’s gone 95-40, with four previous Top 10 finishes. Under his tenure they’ve been to the Rose Bowl twice, the Fiesta Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Outback, Citrus, and Peach Bowl’s. He’s also now 1-10 vs. Ohio State, and 1-9 vs. Top 5 teams. Penn State is at-least a 69% favorite to win their last 4 games. If they win out, they’ll be well positioned to be an at-large team. In this game, they got out to 10-0 lead, and then were outscored 20-3 the rest of the way. Ohio State controlled the game on the ground, with OC Chip Kelly having a strong game plan.  The Buckeyes are 70% plus favorites in each of their remaining 4 games, including vs. Indiana Nov. 23rd. Oregon figures to reach the Big Ten Championship. If Ohio State wins out, with that head-to-head vs. Indiana, they’ll get a chance face the Ducks for a second time.

Miami 53 Duke 31 – The Hurricanes are going to put up points. They’ve also shown they can allow points (this was the 4th game where they’ve allowed at-least 31). The Hurricanes are 77% plus favorites in each of their remaining 3 games.

Tennessee 28 Kentucky 18 – 478 total yards for the Volunteers against a solid defensive Kentucky team. Tennessee has 4 remaining games, where they’ll be significant favorites in 3 of them (Mississippi State, UTEP, @ Vanderbilt), and a decent underdog in the other ( @ Georgia ). 3 sacks, and 2 picks for Tennessee vs. Kentucky.

South Carolina 44 Texas A&M 20 – Knew South Carolina was coming off a bye, and had beat up Oklahoma, and played Alabama in their previous two games; but I didn’t see this one coming. I was pretty high on the Aggies; but their CFP chances took a sizable hit here. They’ll need to beat Texas in the season final, and get a fair amount of help. One thing going for them is that their other loss on the year was vs. Notre Dame, and not in-conference. At 5-1 within the SEC, they could still play their way into the SEC Championship game.

Texas Tech 23 Iowa State 22 – The Cyclones are unbeaten no more, but they are favored to win out in their remaining 4 games.

Louisville 33 Clemson 21 – Thought the Tigers might be pushed here, but didn’t expect them to lose. Clemson had the ball for 38 minutes. They were 5 of 6 on 4th down. They had 450 total yards, with no turnovers, and still lost. Clemson is favored to win out, but they’re no longer favored to reach the ACC Championship.

Indiana 47 Michigan State 10 – The Hoosiers dream season continues, with Kurtis Rourke throwing 4 more TD’s. Michigan State had -36 rushing yards on 32 attempts. Indiana is highly favored in their home games against Michigan and Purdue, and given a 29.7% chance of winning at Ohio State on Nov. 23rd. If the beat the Wolverines, and Boilermakers and have a competitive loss vs. the Buckeyes; where will that have Indiana? How will they be viewed in comparison to Penn State?

Houston 24 Kansas State 19 – This was a second loss (both in the Big 12) for K-State. Houston won with only 234 yards of total offense, helped by K-State having 2 turnovers.  They are strong favorites vs. Arizona State, and Cincinnati at home, and given a 44% chance of winning at Iowa State. If they were able to win out, they do have a head-to-head win vs. Colorado in their back pocket, but that is the only conference loss for the Buffaloes right now.

SMU 48 Pittsburgh 25 – The Mustangs are now 8-1 overall, and 5-0 in the ACC. With Clemson losing; they are well positioned to reach the ACC Conference Championship. They are at-least 76% favorites in each of their 3 remaining games. They’ve gone one loss this year, a 3 point loss vs. Big 12 leading BYU.  How high will SMU be ranked in the CFP rankings Tuesday? In this game, the Broncos had 467 yards, including 303 passing, where they averaged 9.9 yards per attempt.

Ole Miss 63 Arkansas 31 – The Rebels are now 7-2 overall, and 3-2 in the SEC. They are favored in each of their 3 remaining games, including this week vs. Georgia where they are a 53.9% favorite. Beat Georgia, and win out, finish Top 4 in the SEC; and Ole Miss might end up in pretty good shape.  515 yards and 6 TD’s for Jaxson Dart in this game.

Army 20 Air Force 3 – The Cadets are 8-0, but two of their last four games are Notre Dame, and Navy. They’ll be huge underdogs vs. the Irish, and while they’re currently a 66% favorite vs. the Midshipman; that feels more like a pick’em game to me.

Minnesota 25 Illinois 17 – The Golden Gophers continue to climb and are now 6-3 overall, 4-2 in the Big Ten.  Illinois is going to fall out of the Top 25.

Week 11 Games Of Note

Miami at Georgia Tech – Similar to yesterday vs. Duke, Miami will probably win fairly comfortably. This game interests me, again with just wondering how the Hurricanes look. Particularly the defense.

Florida at Texas – The Gators are given a 9% chance of winning in Austin. Not expecting an upset here. But they had a 14 point loss to Georgia yesterday, and a 6 point OT loss at Tennessee Oct. 12th. How competitive is this game? Texas was off yesterday.  They had the loss vs. Georgia two weeks ago, and the 3 point win vs. Vanderbilt last week. The Longhorns need to look better here.

Georgia at Ole Miss – As we said above, Old Miss is favored here.

Colorado at Texas Tech – The 6-2, 4-1 Buffaloes head to Lubbock to face the 6-3, 4-2 Red Raiders. Texas Tech is coming off of their win yesterday at Iowa State. Colorado is a 63.6% favorite in this game. The Buffaloes are favored not just here, but in their other 3 remaining games. With just the lone conference loss, Colorado could be heading the Big 12 Conference Championship.

Alabama at LSU – The 6-2, 3-2 Crimson Tide head to Death Valley to face the 6-2, 3-1 Tigers.  Both teams have to avoid a 3rd loss.  Alabama is coming of a bye, and is a 70% favorite to win on the road. LSU doesn’t lose many night games in Baton Rouge. LSU is also coming off a bye, after losing last week vs. Texas A&M.  I don’t think it’s realistic to say the seat would be warm for Kalen DeBoer, or Brian Kelly with a loss; but some sniping from the fanbases will occur for whoever doesn’t win here.

BYU at Utah – Going into the season, I liked Utah to win the Big 12.  Instead, they’re 4-4 overall, and 1-4 in their new league. A number of close losses, but they just haven’t got much from their offense. Part of it has been health. I still believe in the Utes as a program. Coming off a bye, facing an in-state rival, is this a game where BYU stumbles? BYU is a 59% favorite to get the road win.