College Football 2024 – Week 12 Overview

This past Tuesday the College Football Playoff Selection Committee released their initial rankings.

Their Top 12 was:

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. Tennessee
8. Indiana
9. BYU
10. Notre Dame
11. Alabama
12. Boise State

Let’s review how those teams faired in Week 11, and preview Week 12.

All percentages mentioned below, come from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 11 Quick Hits

Oregon 39 Maryland 18 – The Terps faired better in the trenches on both sides of the ball than I anticipated. Dillon Gabriel finished with 183 yards on 34 attempts. Oregon’s two remaining regular season games are at Wisconsin, and home vs. Washington. Against the Badgers, Oregon is a 75.6% favorite to win, and vs. the Huskies the Ducks are a 89.3% favorite.

Ohio State 45 Purdue 0 – The Buckeyes improved to 8-1 overall, 5-1 in the Big Ten with a shutout vs. the Boilermakers. 4 sacks, and a pick for the Ohio State defense.

Ole Miss 28 Georgia 10 – Georgia fell to 7-2 overall, and 5-2 in the SEC.  Carson Beck had another pick, and just 186 yards over 31 attempts. Ole Miss didn’t get much going on the ground, but three different Rebels had 4 catches. Ole Miss had 5 sacks and a pick. Georgia’s remaining schedule is Tennessee, UMass, and Georgia Tech.  The remaining schedule for Ole Miss is at Florida, and home vs. Mississippi State.

Georgia Tech 28 Miami 23 –  The Hurricanes had looked vulnerable in a handful of previous games. Yesterday, they weren’t able to overcome a deficit vs. the Yellow Jackets.  Georgia Tech rushed for 271 yards, and held Miami to a season low 23 points. With all of the rushing yards, Georgia Tech held possession for nearly 35 minutes.  Miami’s remaining schedule is Wake Forest, and at Syracuse.

Texas 49 Florida 17 – The bye looked to do the Longhorns well. They led 35-0 at halftime. Quinn Ewers threw for 5 TD’s. 562 total yards for Texas. Three games left on the schedule for Texas (at Arkansas, Kentucky, at Texas A&M). They are 85.9% favorites vs. the Razorbacks, 94.8% favorites vs. the Wildcats, and 77.2% favorites vs. the Aggies.

Penn State 35 Washington 6 – The Nittany Lions were not hung over from their Ohio State loss, leading 28-0 at halftime vs. the Huskies. Penn State was 10 of 13 on 3rd down, and had 486 total yards, including 266 yards rushing. 5 sacks for the Nittany Lions defense. Penn State’s remaining schedule is at Purdue, at Minnesota, and Maryland.  Penn State is at-least a 73.2% favorite in each game.

Tennessee 33 Mississippi State 14 – The Volunteers are now 8-1 overall, 5-1 in the SEC. RB Dylan Simpson had 149 yards on 30 attempts. Dont’e Thornton had 104 yards receiving.  The Volunteers defense had 4 sacks, and a pick. They also held the Bulldogs to 3 of 13 on 3rd down. Three games left for Tennessee (at Georgia, UTEP, at Vanderbilt).

Indiana 20 Michigan 15 – It was finally a close game for the Hoosiers, but they won again. Michigan’s defense was good enough to slow Indiana, but their passing game too limited to win. If you are a Indiana fan, maybe you are encouraged that you were able to win without scoring a lot, and that you held the Wolverines to 69 yards on 34 rushing attempts. Indiana’s last two games are at Ohio State, and home for Purdue.

BYU 22 Utah 21 – Down 11 at halftime, the Cougars won the 2nd half 12-0 for the win. The winning score coming on a Field Goal as time expired. Utah’s Athletic Director Mark Harlan says the game was stolen from them by a holding penalty on a would have been sack on BYU’s last drive. Maybe, but the Utes still had an opportunity to come up with a stop. Generally I find it weak for losing teams to cry about calls. For a someone like Harlan who should be a role model for a bunch of young adults; it’s downright pathetic. BYU held Utah to 259 total yards. The Cougars somehow found a way to win when they were 1 of 12 on 3rd down. Three games left on the regular season schedule for BYU – Kansas, @ Arizona State, and Houston.  BYU is a 61.1% favorite vs. the Jayhawks, a 50.6% favorite vs. the Sun Devils, and a 84.8% favorite vs. the other Cougars.

Notre Dame 52 Florida State 3 – This Seminoles season has been remarkable for it’s futility. Understand that the wheels completely came off, and things snowballed; but with FSU now 1-9 overall it’s worth remembering they were a Top 10 preseason team.  The Irish will be expected to win out vs. Virginia, Army, and at USC.

Alabama 42 LSU 13 – This was probably the most impressive showing of the week, with the Crimson Tide not caring at all about Baton Rouge at night. Alabama was 10 of 13 on 3rd down. Just 18 pass attempts for Jalen Milroe, as the Tide (led by Milroe) rushed for 311 yards on 48 attempts. Alabama will be expected to win out against Mercer, at Oklahoma, and Auburn.

Boise State 28 Nevada 21 – A one score game against a 3-8, 0-5 Nevada team didn’t win any style points; but Boise State remains the Group of 5 favorite. Three games left for the Broncos at San Jose State, at Wyoming, and Oregon State.  Boise State is a 83.2% favorite vs. the Spartans, a 94.3% favorite vs. Cowboys, and a 90% favorite vs. the Beavers.

After Week 11, ESPN is Projecting the Committee’s Updated Top 12 as:

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Tennessee
6. Indiana
7. BYU
8. Notre Dame
9. Alabama
10. Georgia
11. Miami
12. Boise State

(Ole Miss, SMU, Texas A&M, Kansas State)

We will see what the official rankings are, but some thoughts on the ESPN projection:

• 4 Big Ten teams, and 4 SEC teams in the projected field, with the Big 12 Champion, the ACC Champion, Boise State representing the Group of 5, and Notre Dame as an Independent at-large.
• Indiana is pretty well positioned to make the CFP, as long as they are competitive this week at Ohio State.
• Georgia is 7-2 overall, 5-2 in the SEC.  Ole Miss is 8-2 overall, 4-2 in the SEC.  Georgia has better wins (at Texas, Clemson) than Ole Miss, but Ole Miss controlled the head-to-head yesterday.
• If BYU and Colorado both win out in the regular season, will the Big 12 get 2 teams into the CFP, or will they be limited to the Conference Championship Game winner?
• SMU is leading the ACC at 5-0, with their lone overall loss being a 3 point game to BYU. The Hurricanes losing yesterday was good for Clemson. Quietly the ACC currently has 5 ranked teams.
• Penn State has 1 win (Illinois) vs. a ranked team. I don’t think they’ve done enough to be 4th right now.

Week 12 Games Of Note

Texas at Arkansas – The Razorbacks are .500 in SEC league play. They did have a 19-14 win over Tennessee a month ago. They were destroyed by Ole Miss Nov. 2nd, and had a bye yesterday. Will they be ready to challenge the Longhorns?

Clemson at Pittsburgh – #23 at #18.

Utah at Colorado – The Buffaloes have won 6 of 7, and their last 3.  They are a 10 point favorite vs. the Utes.

Tennessee at Georgia – The Volunteers are given a 38.2% chance of getting the road win in Athens. The Bulldogs are 8.5 point favorites.

Kansas at BYU – The Jayhawks have won 2 of their last 3. They put 45 on Iowa State yesterday, and the week before lost a 2 point game at Kansas State.

Indiana at Ohio State – Currently #8 vs. #2.  The Hoosiers are given a 26.9% chance of the road win.