2024 NFL: Previewing Week 12

Week 11 wasn’t particularly enjoyable here in Baltimore, but it was one of the more interesting weeks around the NFL.

Let’s review the week, and look ahead to Week 12.

Week 11 Quick Hits

Eagles 26 Commanders 18 – Philadelphia took control of the NFC East with their Thursday night win over DC.  The Eagles outscored the Commanders 20-8 in the 4th Quarter, improving to 8-2 on the year, and dropping DC to 7-4. Saquon Barkley had 146 yards and 2 TD’s on 26 carries. Philly was 9 of 16 on 3rd down, while DC was just 3 of 12.

Packers 20 Bears 19 – A 4th consecutive loss for Chicago, as the Packers blocked a FG attempt as time was expiring. Christian Watson had 4 catches and 150 yards for the Packers. Jordan Love had 261 yards on just 17 attempts. Green Bay improved to 4-1 on the road.

Lions 52 Jaguars 6 – Lions are more intimidating than Jaguars.  Detroit is just crushing teams. They’ve outscored the opposition by 159 points. They’ve won 8 in a row. They’re undefeated on the road. In this game, both Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams combined for 15 catches, 285 yards, and 3 TD’s.

Vikings 23 Titans 13 – Minnesota improved to 8-2 on the year, 4-1 on the road. The Vikings had 5 sacks and a pick. Minnesota did have trouble rushing the ball, as Aaron Jones and Cam Akers had 25 carries for just 64 yards.

Dolphins 34 Raiders 19 – Things getting a little interesting with Miami, as they improved to 4-6. Tua Tagovailoa had 3 TD’s. Can Miami get to 9 wins? Their remaining schedule is New England, @ Green Bay, New York Jets, @ Houston, San Francisco, @ Cleveland, @ New York Jets. Things are pretty dire with the Raiders, but at-least they can feel good about Brock Bowers, as the Rookie TE had another big game (13 catches, 126 yards, and a TD).

Rams 28 Patriots 22 – LA is now 5-5, and like SF and Seattle; trail Arizona by a game in the NFC West.  Matthew Stafford had 4 TD’s. Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp both went up over a 100 yards receiving. Drake Maye had another good showing, with 282 yards and 2 TD’s.

Saints 35 Browns 14 –  New Orleans had 21 4th Quarter points, and won their second straight game under new Interim Head Coach Darren Rizzi. Jameis Winston had 395 yards passing, but the Browns were just 3 of 13 on 3rd down. The Saints had 214 yards rushing.

Colts 28 Jets 27 – Anthony Richardson was back starting, and had 3 total TD’s. What a disaster this season has been for the Jets. Up until about two weeks ago, I expected New York to get in the playoff mix. Not happening. Stick a fork in them. Should be a real fun few remaining games for Aaron Rodgers. This has to be it, right?

Steelers 18 Ravens 16 – I gave my post-game thoughts here.  Couple of days later, I’ll say that I still expect the Ravens (7-4) to win the AFC North over the Steelers (8-2). Pittsburgh is a solid team. Playoff worthy. I don’t see a lot of upside. That said, give them (particularly Mike Tomlin) for getting the maximum out of this roster.

Broncos 38 Falcons 6 – Denver improved 6-5, while Atlanta fell to 6-5. That’s back-to-back losses for the Falcons, and three losses in their last five. Atlanta losing at Denver wouldn’t have been a surprise, or a horrible loss; but getting smoked? That sets off alarm bells. Denver outgained Atlanta 400 yards to 226. Denver was 6 of 11 on 3rd down. Atlanta loses by 32, and they only had 1 turnover. Rookie Bo Nix had 4 TD’s for the Broncos. At 6-5, Denver is in a pretty good spot to make the playoffs right now.

Seahawks 20 49ers 17 – San Francisco had won at Seattle a month ago. This game, they had Christian McCaffrey back and they lose. I’m high on the Niners overall talent, but it’s getting harder to believe they can put things together. This was a bad loss. Not that Seattle isn’t capable, but the ramifications of losing were significant. The Niners needed this game. Instead of being up on Seattle with two head-to-head wins, they’re tied. They’re also tied with LA, and trail Arizona by a game.  What’s also concerning is that SF’s remaining schedule (@ Green Bay, @ Buffalo, Chicago, LA Rams, @ Miami, Detroit, @ Arizona ) has a number of challenges.

Bills 30 Chiefs 21 – Fun game. Two of the best teams obviously.  Bills got to 9-2 overall, 5-0 at home. KC experiences their first loss of the year. Bills had 104 yards rushing, 55 from Josh Allen. Bills had four receivers with at-least 40 yards. Buffalo had 2 sacks, and picked Patrick Mahomes twice. Just 8 yards on 2 receptions for Travis Kelce. The KC Defense didn’t record a sack.

Chargers 34 Bengals 27 – Cincinnati rallied after being down 24-6 at halftime, but weren’t able to win. Another close loss on a game they could have won. At 4-7 they should be done when talking about the playoff race. Feels like they’d have to run the table, or at the minimum win 5 of their last 6.  LA has become a good team under first year Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. They can run the ball. They can get after QB’s with their pass rush. They have one of the most talented QB’s in the league. Those traits are going to give you an opportunity most weeks.

Texans 34 Cowboys 10 – 109 yards, 3 TD’s for Joe Mixon.  If I was a Texans fan, I’d be wanting to see John Metchie, Dalton Schultz, and Robert Woods provide regular help to Mixon, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell. The Houston Defense had 5 sacks, and a pick.

Week 12 Games

All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Thursday November 21st

Pittsburgh at Cleveland – Short week, after a physical game vs. Baltimore.  Could the Steelers be upset?

Sunday November 24th

Minnesota at Chicago –  The Bears would like to end their losing streak. Minnesota trying to stay within striking distance of Detroit, and also ahead of Green Bay. Vikings are a 59% favorite on the road. Minnesota is currently 4th overall in DVOA, with the 17th ranked Offense, 1st ranked Defense, and 20th ranked Special Teams.

Detroit at Indianapolis – The Lions are a 73.4% favorite here. They’re also a 7 point favorite.  Seems like the Lions would have to cough the ball up multiple times for the Colts to be positioned to steal the game. Detroit is 1st overall in DVOA (at a currently historical level), 2nd ranked Offense, 2nd ranked Defense, and 1st ranked Special Teams.

New England at Miami – The Dolphins can pull within a game of .500 if they win here.

Tampa Bay at NY Giants – Baker Mayfield and the Bucs have lost their last 4. They’re still favored here, given a 69.9% chance of the road win.

Dallas at Washington – A get right game for the Commanders.  The Cowboys ineptness cures all woes.

Kansas City at Carolina – After losing their first game of ’24, Kansas City gets to travel to Carolina where they’re a 10.5 point favorite over the Panthers. I can’t envision a scenario where Carolina wins.

Tennessee at Houston – The Texans are 4-1 at home. The Titans are 1-4 on the road. Houston is now 11th overall in DVOA, 24th ranked Offense, 3rd ranked Defense, and 10th ranked Special Teams.

Denver at Las Vegas – The Broncos can further boost their playoff chances here.

San Francisco at Green Bay – The Niners need a win over a quality team.  A road win over a quality team might get them going. But Green Bay is favored here (54.4% chance to win, 2.5 point favorite). SF is still ranked 6th overall in DVOA, with the 5th ranked Offense, 6th ranked Defense, and 31st ranked Special Teams.

Arizona at Seattle – The Cardinals have grabbed a 1 game lead over each of other three NFC West teams.  Seattle is coming off the road win at SF.  Arizona is given a 54.9% chance of winning here. After this game, these teams will face off again two weeks from now in Arizona.

Philadelphia at LA Rams – The Eagles have won their last 6. They’re up to 7th overall in the DVOA rankings, 14th in Offense, 5th in Defense, and 13th in Special Teams.

Monday November 25th

Baltimore at LA Chargers – The Ravens (2nd overall in DVOA, 1st in Offense, 13th in Defense, 21st in Special Teams) head West to face the 9th overall Chargers (13th in Offense, 10th in Defense, 17th in Special Teams).  The Ravens are given a 60.6% chance of winning, and are a 3 point favorite.  LA has won their last 4.