Evaluating The Terps After 10 Games

Yesterday the University of Maryland Terrapins dropped a 83-78 decision at #8 Purdue. This left the Terps at 8-2 after 10 games.

Maryland has 3 more games (each out of conference) here in ’24 (St. Francis, Syracuse, and Maryland Eastern Shore) before jumping back into Big Ten play January 2nd at Washington.

Before looking ahead to what awaits, some thoughts on what we’ve seen so far.

Through 10 Games

• Maryland is up to 19th overall in the KenPom Rankings, with the 36th rated offense, and 13 rated defense.
• In the NET ratings, the Terps are 13th.
• The two losses (Marquette, and Purdue) were by a total of 9 points against teams currently ranked 6th, and 11th in the latest AP Poll.
• The two best wins (Ohio State, and Villanova) are against teams currently 29th and 43rd in the KenPom Rankings.
• The Terps have 6 players (Derik Queen, Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice, Julian Reese, Selton Miguel, Deshawn Harris-Smith) averaging 20+ minutes per game.
• Four Terps (Queen, Gillespie, Rice, Reese) are scoring at-least 12.2 ppg.  Miguel is averaging 9.9.
• We continue to see that the athleticism has been significantly improved. MD is getting more fast-break points than last year. The defense is capable of sustained pressure, and gets out on the wings. Loved the defensive effort vs. Ohio State.
• Braden Pierce has been lost for the year with an eye injury.  Chance Stephens has been limited to 6 games. Jordan Geronimo just 5 games (he did get a few minutes of action yesterday, after being out of action since the Marquette game Nov. 15th).
• The starting 5 is in really good shape with Rice starting. The bench has some options, but could really use Stephens and Geronimo to stay available going forward.  Harris-Smtih seems more comfortable as a reserve, and his shooting woes aren’t as magnified. I like what we’ve seen from Jay Young, but he’s scoreless in his last two games (Ohio State, Purdue). His playing time was also significantly decreased vs. those teams, and Marquette. Which is an indication Coach Willard is not ready (at-least yet) to give him extended larger time against major conference teams. Tafara Gapare is a lot of fun to watch. It’s important that in his minutes (particularly with Reese’s propensity to pick up fouls) that he rebounds. Just 1 board in 15 minutes yesterday vs. Purdue. If Stephens can’t round into shape, there’s an opportunity for Malachi Palmer to get a few minutes here and there.
• Queen dropped in his first couple of collegiate 3’s yesterday, which is a testimony to his overall skills. I like that he plays like a traditional center. He wants to be in the post, he goes to the basket. He’s leading MD with 17.5 ppg, and 8.7 boards per game. When MD needs a basket, Willard and Queen’s teammates are looking for him, and Queen is looking for the ball.  The 6’10, 250lb Freshman has a baby face, but he plays like a man. The future pro is MD’s best player, and showing up in MD’s biggest games.
• Maybe the only thing that didn’t go right for MD against Ohio State was that Rice was 0 for 6 from 3. He came back yesterday and hit 3 of his 7 attempts. I really like his mid-range game. I’d like to see not settle for 3’s. Would also like to see him get to the line more often.
• Miguel has been held scoreless twice, and is averaging 12.4 ppg in the other 8 games. He’s scored in double figures each of the last 4 games. He’s now shooting 37.2% from 3 on 4.3 attempts per game. He plays with a ton of energy.
• Gillespie is making 41.8% of his 3 point attempts (5.5 per game), and he’s 18 of 19 at the foul line. In his first two games of Big Ten play, Gillespie averaged 20.5 ppg, with 4 assists. He looks very comfortable, and largely under control.
• Reese fouling out yesterday after just 23 minutes on the floor was unfortunate. In MD’s two losses, Reese has averaged 8.5 boards; but also just 3.5 points. Last year Reese played 31.9 minutes per game. Right now he’s averaging just 22.2 minutes. That figures to go up. Every game, MD needs Reese to rebound, shot-block, hit his foul shots when he get to the line (72% this year vs. 56.8% last year). Against the best teams MD has faced this year (Purdue, Ohio State, Villanova, Marquette), he’s averaged just 2.25 foul shot attempts (vs. his season average of 5 per game).

Rising Expectations

Last year was a very difficult watch for MD fans, and apathy in the program was at a high. 10 games into the ’24-’25 season, and expectations are on the rise.

Purdue is the top ranked Big Ten team in KenPom at #12.

UCLA is next at 14, Illinois is at 17, as mentioned above MD is 19th, Oregon 20th, Michigan 21st, Michigan State 22nd, Ohio State 29th, Penn State 33rd, and Wisconsin is 37th.

All to say that it appears the Big Ten has plenty of quality teams, but maybe nobody that is truly elite.

The only ranked teams on the remaining schedule are:

@ Oregon (12th)
UCLA (24th)
Wisconsin (20th)
Michigan State (21st)
&
@ Michigan (14th)

There are numerous opportunities on the remaining schedule for quality wins, and absolutely zero games on the schedule which look particularly intimidating.

The Big Ten Preseason Media Poll had MD finishing 10th.
CBS Sports Big Ten preview had MD finishing 11th.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s Preseason Projected Bracket had MD as one of the first 4 teams out.
The initial KenPom poll had MD 37th Nationally entering the year.

It could be argued that MD should be a Top 25 team already.
Currently they are receiving votes.

CBS Sports current Power Rankings has MD 15th.

The Bracket Project’s current Bracket Matrix has MD as an 11th seed. 

To me, MD looks like a Top 25 team, with strong Sweet 16 aspirations.

Using ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor, MD’s estimated chances of winning each of their remaining games are:

St. Francis – 99%
Syracuse – 78.1%
MD Eastern Shore – 99%
@ Washington – 77.9%
@ Oregon – 43.3%
UCLA – 64.9%
Minnesota – 89.4%
@ Northwestern – 53.1%
Nebraska – 78.3%
Illinois – 30.3%
Indiana – 56.7%
Wisconsin – 72%
@ Ohio State – 40.5%
Rutgers – 85.4%
@ Nebraska – 55.4%
Iowa – 78.7%
USC – 86.4%
Michigan State – 63%
@ Penn State – 51.6%
@ Michigan – 44.5%
Northwestern – 76.7%

So, based on this, MD is currently projected to finish the regular season 25-6.

Add a couple of wins in the Big Ten Tournament, and MD would be looking at a strong seed on Selection Sunday.