2024 NFL: Previewing Week 15

No time to look back at the week that was today.

All eyes ahead as we try and get this Week 15 preview up before the Rams and Niners kick off later tonight.

Week 15 Games

All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Thursday December 12th

LA Rams at San Francisco – Interesting game here to start of the week. The Rams coming off a home vs. the Bills, and the Niners coming off a blow out win vs. Chicago. SF is a 60.8% favorite to win. All of the NFC West teams are within 2 games. LA is trailing Seattle by a game. SF is two games behind the Seahawks, and a game back of the Rams. SF lost earlier this year at LA, 27-24. By DVOA, SF is still 7th overall, with the 8th rated offense, and 6th rated defense. The Rams are 17th overall, with the 7th rated offense, and 22nd rated defense.

Sunday December 15th

Kansas City at Cleveland – The 12-1 Chiefs at the 3-10 Browns. KC is a 58.8% favorite to win at Cleveland. Jameis Winston had 2 more picks last week, and now has 9 since becoming the starter Oct. 27th. KC is just getting ready for the post-season. They’re now getting contributions in the receiving game from Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Noah Grey.  Isiah Pacheco is back at running back. The defense has allowed 17 points each of the last two weeks. The Chiefs are 8th overall in DVOA, 9th in offense, 15th in defense.

Cincinnati at Tennessee – The Bengals are 5-8 after winning at Dallas last week. That win ended their three game losing streak. Remarkably, Cincinnati still has a glimmer of hope of reaching the AFC Playoffs. Obviously they can not afford to lose this game in Tennessee. Cincinnati is a 61.8% favorite.

Washington at New Orleans – Before their bye this past weekend, the Commanders ended their three game losing streak with a 42-19 win Tennessee. Jayden Daniels had 3 TD’s in the air, and another on the ground. Washington is a 69.9% favorite to win, and a 7.5 point favorite.  The Saints have won 3 of their last 4, the lone loss being two weeks ago (21-14) against the Rams.  Derek Carr did not participate in practice today, as he’s dealing with both a hand injury and the ramifications of a concussion.

Baltimore at NY Giants – It’s the NFL, anything can happen… the difference between the best and worst isn’t that much. Still, I’d be shocked if this game was close. The Ravens are coming off a bye, and should be ticked off given their loss two weeks ago to Philadelphia. For this game to be close, the Ravens would have to cough the ball up multiple times.  The Giants pass rush (Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux) would have to go off. New York having Dexter Lawrence on IR, doesn’t help their chances. The Ravens are a 16 point favorite, and given an 81.5% chance to win.

Dallas at Carolina – The Panthers have become one of my favorite stories of the year. They looked absolutely abysmal the first half plus of the year. They had the back-to-back wins over the Saints and Giants, and then have had competitive games (all losses) the last three weeks (3 point loss to KC, 3 point loss to Tampa Bay, 6 point loss at Philadelphia). Kudos to Bryce Young. and Carolina as a whole for competing. They aren’t good. They aren’t talented enough. But they are showing some fight, and that’s really respectable.

NY Jets at Jacksonville – The 3-10 Jets at the 3-10 Jaguars.  New York has lost 4 in a row, and 9 of 10.  Jacksonville is coming off a 10-6 win vs. Tennessee.  The Jets are 3.5 point favorites. Trevor Lawrence would have to clear concussion protocol to play.

Miami at Houston – The Dolphins are 6-7 overall, and have won 4 of their last 5. A win at Houston would go a long way for Miami and their playoff chase. The Texans have been given a 54.7% chance to win this home game. Houston is coming off a win, but have lost 3 of their last 5. Houston is 11th overall in DVOA, with the 24th ranked offense, and 2nd ranked defense. Miami is 23rd overall in DVOA, with the 23rd ranked offense, and 20th ranked defense.

Indianapolis at Denver – After their back-to-back losses at Baltimore, and at Kansas City, the Broncos have won their last 3 overall to improve to 8-5. Denver has a 56.5% chance to win this home game, and are 4.5 point favorites. Against the Browns, Marvin Mims and Courtland Sutton both had 100+ yard games receiving. Jaleel McLaughlin had 84 yards on 18 carries. For the year, Bo Nix is completing 63.8% of his attempts. He’s got 17 TD’s, against 8 picks. He’s rushed for 304 yards, and another 4 TD’s. It’s been a nice year for the rookie. Denver is now 10th overall in DVOA, with the 20th ranked offense, and 5th ranked defense.

Buffalo at Detroit – The game of the week, as the Bills head to the Motor City. Both teams enter the game with Super Bowl aspirations. Buffalo put up 42 points last week in LA, but their 7 game winning streak ended. The Lions have won 11 straight, but unfortunately continue to lose defensive players to injury. By DVOA, Detroit is 1st overall, with the 4th ranked offense, and the 3rd ranked defense. Buffalo is 4th overall in DVOA, with the 2nd ranked offense, and 10th ranked defense. Detroit is given a 57.5% chance to extend their winning streak to 12, and the Lions are a 2.5 point favorite.

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia – The Keystone State battle.  The 10-3 AFC North leading Steelers vs. the 11-2 NFC East Eagles.  With the Lions defensive injuries, have the Eagles become the favorite in the NFC? They enter this game riding a 9 game winning streak. The Steelers have won 7 of 8. Philadelphia is given a 60.5% chance to win, and a 5.5 point favorite. Philadelphia is 5th overall in DVOA, 12th overall in offense, and 4th in defense. The Steelers are 12th overall in DVOA, 18th in offense, and 8th in defense. An upset win here for Pittsburgh would make it very difficult for the Ravens to potentially catch the Steelers in the North.

New England at Arizona – After beating the Jets 31-6 November 10th, the Cardinals were 6-4 and in pretty good position. That’s been followed by 3 successive losses (at Seattle, at Minnesota, and Seattle at home). The Seahawks have surged past in the NFC West with the two head-to-head wins. Arizona is a 71.8% favorite to beat the Patriots, and get back to .500. In their loss last week to Seattle, the Seahawks were 7 of 15 on 3rd down. Zach Charbonnet ran all over Arizona for 134 yards.

Tampa Bay at LA Chargers – LA outscored 17-6 in the 2nd half last week, but the Chiefs won on their last second FG.  LA has won 5 of 7, but with JK Dobbins sidelined, the running game has slowed. Gus Edwards averaged just 3.6 yards per carry on his 10 attempts last week. The 8-5 Chargers (4-3 on the road) a slight 51.5% favorite to beat the Bucs.  Tampa Bay looked dead in the water when SF beat them Nov. 10th. That loss had the Bucs at 4-6. Since then, TB has won their last 3. This past week vs. Vegas, TB 2022 3rd round RB Rachaad White had 90 yards on 17 carries, helping set-up the Baker Mayfield play action game. The Bucs had three WR’s with four receptions each. With Atlanta’s inability to capitalize, the Bucs are now leading the NFC South.

Green Bay at Seattle – The Packers have won 7 of 9. They’re coming off a 3 point loss at Detroit. They aren’t going to catch the Lions in the North; but in my opinion they’re right there with Detroit and Philadelphia as the class of the NFC.  (Can understand Vikings fans saying, what about us? That’s fair, I slightly like GB better, but it’s close.) Should I be giving more love to Seattle? They’re 8-5 now.  We talked about their two recent wins over Arizona. Seattle has won their last 4 in a row. They’ve got talented WR’s. We mentioned Charbonnet’s game last week above. He now has 7 TD’s. If Seattle can get a consistent ground game going, they’re a threat in any one game vs. anyone. Another good sign for them, they’re 5-1 on the road. Green Bay is given a 62.5% chance of winning, and are a 2.5 point favorite.  Green Bay is 3rd overall in DVOA, 3rd in offense, 11th in defense. Seattle is 15th overall, 16th in offense, 9th in defense.

Monday December 16th

Chicago at Minnesota – The Bears have lost 7 in a row, and are 4-9.  The start of their losing streak being that Hail Mary finish at Washington. The year got away from them obviously, but there are real pieces to move forward with. Strengthening up the O-Line has to happen. That’s next year though.  This week, the Vikings seem likely to improve to 12-2 overall, and 7-1 at home. It’s been a great year for the Vikings given the middling expectations they entered the season with. I prefer the Packers slightly when thinking of the NFC as a whole, but that doesn’t diminish with Minnesota has accomplished. When JJ McCarthy was lost for the year, the general feeling from most was that Minnesota would finish below .500. Give it up for Sam Darnold. The 27 year old QB has 27 TD’s against 10 picks. He’s thrown for 3,300 yards. Against the Falcons Sunday, he had 5 TD’s. The Vikings are a 65.3% favorite to win this divisional match-up.

Atlanta at Las Vegas –  Is there a team more unlikable than the Falcons? They were 6-3 after beating Dallas November 3rd. Since then, they’ve lost their last 4. As we said above, Darnold threw for 5 TD’s against the Falcons last week. In that game, Minnesota was 8 of 12 on 3rd down. Minnesota’s Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson had 15 catches for 265 yards. As talented as the Vikings WR duo is, you should be able to slow down of them. Vegas shouldn’t be a problem for the Falcons, if Atlanta decides to show up, but the 2-11 Raiders being given a 43.9% chance of the upset isn’t nothing. Built into those analytics are some type of figuring that Atlanta might just Atlanta all over the place.