2024 NFL: Previewing Week 16

Week 16 Games

All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Thursday December 19th

Denver at LA Chargers – The Broncos and Chargers weren’t in position to challenge the Chiefs in the AFC West this year, but it feels like both Denver and LA have taken strides forward. The Head Coaches are strong. Justin Herbert is as talented as pretty much anyone. Bo Nix seems serviceable. Denver has a higher point differential then KC.  Denver has won 4 straight games entering tonight. The Broncos and Chargers have both allowed 247 points on the season, but Denver has outscored LA 336 to 294. The Broncos are 1 game up on LA overall, and the Chargers have lost two straight. These teams faced off in mid-October, with LA getting the 23-16 win in Denver. In that game, LA raced out to a 20-0 half-time lead. In their losses the last two weeks, the Chargers have scored 17 points in both games. With JK Dobbins injured the Chargers running game has slowed. Gus Edwards had just 23 yards on 8 carries vs. Tampa Bay. The Chargers are favored here, given a 57.7% chance to win. They are 2.5 point favorite.  Denver is 9-3 overall in their last 12 games. Nix is coming off his worst showing since the beginning of the year, as he was just 20 of 33, for 130 yards, with 3 picks. (He did have 3 TDs.)  That’s 5 picks total in his last two weeks, so that’s something to watch here.  Denver is 10th overall in DVOA, with the 21st ranked offense, and 4th ranked defense.

Saturday December 21st

Houston at Kansas City – KC has won 4 in a row after their loss to Buffalo. The last three weeks, their defense is allowing under 14 points per game. All of talk coming out of their win vs. Cleveland was that Patrick Mahomes might need to miss this game after suffering a high-ankle sprain late. Head Coach Andy Reid said today that Mahomes is likely to start. Houston has won their last two games, and 3 of 4. Houston opened as a 1 point favorite here, but with the Mahomes news; they’re now a 3.5 point dog. KC is given a 61.4% chance to extend their record to 14-1, and 8-0 at home.  Houston is 9th overall in DVOA, with the 24th ranked offense, and 1st ranked defense. KC is 7th overall in DVOA, with the 10th ranked offense, and 11th ranked defense.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore – The Ravens are back to #1 overall in DVOA, with the 1st ranked offense, and 13th ranked defense. Gave some thoughts on this game here. 

Sunday December 22nd

New York Giants at Atlanta – The Falcons ended their four game losing streak with a 15-9 victory at Las Vegas. Kirk Cousins had 112 yards on 17 attempts, and is being replaced this week by Michael Pennix Jr. Loved Pennix at Washington (and Indiana before that). Looking forward to seeing how he looks these last few weeks.  Having just seen that Ravens / Giants game, it’s hard to imagine that NY team beating anyone. Still, it’s wild to see that NY is a 9 point underdog against a Rookie QB making his first start.

Detroit at Chicago – The Lions 11 game winning streak ended Sunday in their 48-42 home loss to Buffalo. Detroit is 12-2, they’ve outscored their opposition by 177 points; but it feels like all of their injuries have made them vulnerable.  If you don’t have a direct rooting interest, the Lions are easy to like. It’s easy to enjoy watching a perennial also ran build a true contender. I think a lot of people have been pulling for Detroit. “If not my team, hopefully the Lions…”  The cumulative injuries for the Lions are substantial enough to wonder if Detroit is still capable of winning multiple post-season games. But that’s a question for a couple of weeks from now. In this game, you of course have two teams who just faced off on Thanksgiving. That one was entertaining enough. The Bears losing streak has now reached 8 games. Detroit is a 71.9% favorite to win.

Cleveland at Cincinnati – I bet when HBO’s Hard Knocks envisioned filming the AFC North in-season, they didn’t anticipate the Browns being 3-11, and the Bengals 6-8. Jameis Winston had 3 more picks this past weekend vs. KC, and was benched for Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Winston’s propensity for turnovers is really remarkable. His first start was against the Ravens Oct. 27th, and he has 12 picks on the season. In other good news for the Browns, they lost Nick Chubb to another injury, this time a broken foot. The Bengals (1-5 at home) still have an outside chance of the postseason. They are a 67.3% favorite in this game. They have won their last two. Can they win out?

Tennessee at Indianapolis – Like the Bengals, the Colts are also 6-8 and have some minimal remaining post-season aspirations. That said, while Joe Burrow gives the Bengals a chance any week; Anthony Richardson currently brings more heartburn than optimism. Also, the Colts have a negative point differential. In this game, the Colts are given a 49.9% chance of winning. The Colts are 3.5 point favorite. It looks like Mason Rudolph has replaced Will Levis as the Titans starting QB.

LA Rams at New York Jets – The 8-6 Rams are tied for 1st in the NFC West. The Jets are 4-10, and playing out the string. NY did end their 4 game losing streak with a win at Jacksonville. NY has averaged 29 points per game the last two weeks. In the win vs. the Jaguars, Aaron Rodgers had 3 TD’s, and connected with Davante Adams often – as the WR had 9 catches for 198 yards and 2 scores. I don’t love LA traveling across the country for an early game. Also don’t like for LA that they could be playing a Jets team that is mentally free of any expectations. Still, you’d like to think LA would take care of business against an inferior team. The Rams are a 51.1% favorite to win.

Philadelphia at Washington – The 12-2 Eagles head to DC to face the 9-5 Commanders in this NFC East battle. These teams faced off last month in Philadelphia, with the Eagles winning 26-18. In that game, Brian Robinson was held to 63 yards on 16 carries (3.9 yards per carry). Washington was just 3 of 12 on 3rd down. On the other side, Saquon Barkley had 146 yards and 2 scores. The Eagles outgained Washington 434 yards to 264. This week, the Eagles are a 58.8% favorite. Washington is 12th overall in DVOA, with the 6th ranked offense, and 24th ranked defense. The Eagles are 5th overall in DVOA, with the 9th ranked offense, and 3rd ranked defense.

Arizona at Carolina – At 7-7, the Cardinals are a game back of both the Rams and Seattle in the NFC West. This past week they ended their 3 game losing streak with a 30-17 win over the Patriots. James Connor had a big game with 110 yards on 16 carries, with 2 scores. Arizona was 10 of 15 on 3rd down, and held the Patriots to 0 of 6. Arizona is a 74.6% favorite vs. the Panthers.

Minnesota at Seattle – I’ve been slow to come completely around on the Vikings. I started in the preseason thinking they wouldn’t be a playoff team, but could be a competitive ‘bad’ team. Did say it would be interesting to watch Sam Darnold with the Vikings weapons. Then Minnesota rolled off 5 wins in succession to begin the year, and you had to buy into them as a likely playoff team. And that’s how I’ve generally viewed them. A playoff team, without much ceiling. But they’re entering this week at 12-2. The defense is showing up weekly. They have real weapons, and Darnold has been terrific. I’m still skeptical of them putting together multiple post-season wins, but a team this consistent can’t be totally discounted either.  As we mentioned above, Seattle is in a tie for the NFC West lead. One thing that has limited the Seahawks this year, is that they are just 3-5 at home. Geno Smith was knocked out of the game last week vs. Green Bay, but the Seahawks are optimistic he will be available against the Vikings. They need Smith to not just be available, but to be good.  For the year he has 14 TD’s against 13 picks. Minnesota is a 58.9% favorite to get the road win.

New England at Buffalo – The last two weeks, the Bills have scored 90 points. They’ve also allowed 86. Overall the Bills have won 8 of 9, and that includes wins vs. KC, and at Detroit. Their last 3 games are NE at home, Jets at home, and at the Patriots. Buffalo is a 14 point favorite in this game, and given an 82.5% chance to win.

Jacksonville at Las Vegas – The 2-12 Raiders host the 3-11 Jaguars.  Vegas is 1-5 at home, while Jacksonville is 1-6 on the road. Vegas is a 1.5 point favorite. Have to think both of these franchises are about ready to blow things up and try again.

San Francisco at Miami – Two teams that entered the year with post-season aspirations. Two teams that enter Sunday not in very good shape.  San Fran is 6-8. They’ve lost 4 of 6. They’re coming off a 12-6 loss to the Rams. The injuries have piled up, and become too much. The Dolphins are also 6-8, and have lost 2 of 3 after a 3 game winning streak. The 49ers are given a 54.4% chance of winning in Miami.  I listen to the Bill Simmons podcast via The Ringer.  I thought Bill and ‘Cousin Sal’ were a bit too harsh in their overall critique of Tua Tagovailoa this week; but also right in their overall description of Tua as a guy that needs everything around him to go right to win games.

Tampa Bay at Dallas – The 8-6 NFC South leading Buccaneers head to Dallas to face the 6-8 Cowboys.  Dallas is 1-6 at home. Tampa Bay has won 4 games in a row, including an impressive 40-17 beating of the Chargers last week. In that game, Baker Mayfield threw for 4 TD’s, and RB’s Bucky Irving and Rachaad White combined for 30 carries and 181 yards. That play action game is huge for Baker. Mike Evans had 159 yards on 9 grabs. Tampa is 5-2 on the road, and are a 70% favorite to win in Dallas.  Tampa Bay is now up to 14th overall in DVOA, with the 7th ranked offense, and 17th ranked defense.

Monday December 23rd

New Orleans at Green Bay – The Packers looked like a Super Bowl contender in their 30-13 beating of the Seahawks last weekend. Green Bay is a 14.5 favorite at home, and given a 83.5% chance to win.