A look at Tomoyuki Sugano (and who’s left on the market)

It’s been extremely well known among Orioles fans ever since the offseason started that bolstering the pitching staff needs to be the top priority for the team, especially after losing Corbin Burnes to free agency as well as Tyler Wells and Kyle Bradish to injury (for at least part of next season).

So far, the Orioles haven’t done much as far as pitching goes, but they did make an interesting move earlier this month, signing 35-year-old Japanese pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano to a one-year, $13 million deal.

Sugano has spent his entire 12-year career with the Yomiuri Giants in the NPB over in Japan, and posted some pretty gaudy numbers last year, including a 1.67 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and a 2.6% walk rate over 156.2 innings. Now, he also only had 111 strikeouts, meaning he’s not a massive strikeout machine (which could hinder him in the majors) but rather a command and control kind of guy. He also comes with a kitchen sink style approach, throwing six different pitches, including a pretty nasty-looking splitter. 

Now, obviously NPB stats don’t necessarily predict how a guy is going to pitch in the U.S., but the fact that Sugano posted such ridiculous numbers last year is at least encouraging, even if he does regress.

Regardless, the Orioles’ rotation needs help, and Sugano looks at least more interesting than Trevor Rogers or Albert Suárez.

If the season started today, the Orioles’ rotation would likely look like this: Zach Eflin/Grayson Rodriguez/Dean Kremer/Tomoyuki Sugano/either Trevor Rogers or Albert Suárez.

Even with Bradish likely coming back midseason (and potentially Wells at some point), that’s still not the rotation you want to have if you’re a team with World Series aspirations. So after the Sugano signing, who’s left for the Orioles in free agency?

We’ve seen just about all of the big aces get signed, but obviously the big elephant in the free agency room is Corbin Burnes. The latest reports suggest Burnes is seeking a deal in the $245 million range, which if the Orioles committed to that, would be the biggest contract in team history by nearly $100 million.

Given recent reports and the fact the Orioles and Mike Elias in general have been reticent to sign players to very large, long contracts, it’s not seeming likely that Burnes is going to end up in Baltimore. So after him, who else is there?

It’s important to note before diving into some of these players that obviously the Orioles could make a trade (for say, Dylan Cease or Ranger Suárez for example) that could fill the hole Burnes left, and if I had to make a guess, I’d say they’re more likely to do that than anything. However, let’s take a look at a few of the remaining pitchers out there in free agency:

 

• Jack Flaherty: It’s deja vu all over again, perhaps Jack Flaherty ends up back in Baltimore? As far as seasons to have before you become a free agency, Flaherty couldn’t have asked for better, posting a 3.17 ERA with a 29.9% strikeout rate and a 1.07 WHIP over 162 innings. It’s worth noting that Flaherty’s time with the Tigers was notably better than his time with the Dodgers, posting a 2.95 ERA with a 3.12 FIP with the Tigers and a 3.58 ERA with a 4.16 FIP with the Dodgers. In L.A., Flaherty’s slider got notably worse and he wasn’t quite the same pitcher he was in Detroit, and that would make me nervous giving him a deal around the five-year, $115 million MLB Trade Rumors projects him to get.

• Justin Verlander: We all wondered how long it would take for Father Time to catch up to Justin Verlander and it feels like it has. Last year, amid injuries, Verlander pitched to a 5.48 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and an 18.7% strikeout rate. Also notably, Verlander saw his fastball velocity drop and had an 11.5% on his slider, which normally sits around 20% or higher. It’s entirely possible Verlander could turn things around, if anyone can he can, but it feels like this is the beginning of the end of his career.

• Max Scherzer: Speaking of old guys who are probably bound for the Hall of Fame, Max Scherzer turned in a better year than Verlander did, posting a 3.95 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and a 22.6% strikeout rate over 43.1 innings. Assuming Scherzer’s slider still keeps working the way it has been (a 36.7% CSW last year is ridiculous), he should at least be somewhat productive. Obviously also an injury risk too.

• Andrew Heaney: Whatever upside Andrew Heaney used to have has sort of faded, making him more of a decent four or five guy if you want a lefty in the rotation. A 4.28 ERA last year with a 1.25 WHIP and 22.9% strikeout rate is pretty whatever, and while there were some starts where Heaney did a good job locating his fastballs up high and his breakers down low, it didn’t happen consistently throughout the season. Could the Orioles help him make a tweak to be more consistent start-to-start? Sure, but the Orioles also don’t need another project.

• Nick Pivetta: Nick Pivetta’s season last year was a rollercoaster of great starts (6 IP, 2 ER, 10 K against the Blue Jays in August) and awful starts (5 IP, 5 ER, 3 BB, 2 K against the Astros the start before that). He could be an interesting guy if he could consistently make his fastball/sweeper/cutter combo work, and maybe the Orioles could help him do that (and help him stop giving up as many home runs as he often does). It’s also possible Pivetta accepts the qualifying offer from the Red Sox and chooses to wait another year for free agency, so we’ll see what happens. (EDIT: Pivetta did decline the qualifier.)

• Jose Quintana: Speaking of pitchers who have trouble with consistency – Jose Quintana posted some pretty decent season-long numbers last year with a 3.75 ERA over 170.1 innings, but that also came with a mediocre 1.25 WHIP and a miserable 18.8% strikeout rate. When Quintana can locate his changeups and curveballs down in the zone consistently while locating his fastballs up and sinkers arm-side, he can look pretty darn good, but he definitely does not do that consistently.

• Spencer Turnbull: He’s another project pitcher, but one the Orioles could probably sign for pretty cheap and one that has shown plenty of flashes in the past. Turnbull found his groove in Philly for a good handful of starts and then the Phillies decided “hey Taijuan Walker looks cool, let’s start him instead” for whatever reason. Then, Turnbull got hurt and that was kind of that. Turnbull has battled injuries over the years but when he’s been healthy, he’s shown lots of potential. Obviously Turnbull isn’t even remotely close to the answer for the Orioles’ rotation, but if they did sign him, to me he’s definitely more interesting than someone like Trevor Rogers.