NFL Divisional Round Preview / Saturday Games

There are 8 teams left in the NFL Playoffs, and their each in action this weekend with the Divisional Round.

After bye weeks in the Wild Card Round, the AFC’s and NFC’s respective #1 seeds Kansas City and Detroit return to the field.

5 of the 6 Wild Card games were largely non-competitive.

3 of the 4 Divisional Round games have lines with favorites of 6.5 points or more.

All percentages mentioned below are from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.
All DVOA numbers from FTN Fantasy.  You can find the final 2024 season DVOA numbers at FTN Fantasy here.

Saturday January 18th

Houston at Kansas City

I didn’t have Houston winning by 20 over the Chargers, but I thought it was possible they could get up for one game and spring an upset.
I have a harder time seeing the Texans putting things together two weeks in a row though, especially against a rested Chiefs team.

Against LA, Houston got 4 Justin Herbert picks.
Seems unlikely that Patrick Mahomes is going to cough the ball up multiple times.

Joe Mixon had 106 yards on the ground against the Chargers, and will play against Kansas City, but he’s officially listed as questionable with an ankle.
The Texans will need a big performance from Mixon to compete, and obviously he won’t be near 100%.

Nico Collins is coming of a 7 catch, 122 yard, 1 TD game; but none of the other Texans had more than 34 yards.
Collins will be keyed on by the Chiefs. How many plays do the other pass catching options (Dalton Schultz, Robert Woods, John Metchie) make?
Houston will need some production from each of them, but really need at-least one of them to show themselves to be enough of a threat as to pull some attention away from Collins.

Not all of Herbert’s picks were his fault completely. Houston’s defense does get some credit there.
First Team All-Pro Derek Stingley came away with two of the interceptions.

The Texans defense also had 4 sacks, with Will Anderson, and Mario Edwards Jr each having 1.5.

The Chiefs had an interesting year.
Despite being the 2x defending Super Bowl champs, and going 15-2; it felt like KC was largely under-appreciated by the football public.
Maybe that sentiment comes down to apathy.  “Ohh, those guys. Again?”
Or maybe it was largely related to the KC offense not being the overwhelming force they once were. Still, by DVOA, the KC offense finished a respectable 8th overall.
They are still formidable, and they largely improved during the year.
They never really got to employ the Raschee Rice, Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy trio the envisioned over the Summer; but they adjusted.
DeAndre Hopkins was acquired. Brown returned to action December 21st.  Worthy got more snaps then the KC Coaching staff probably expected when the season began.
The running game wasn’t great all year, largely because Isiah Pacheco was limited to 7 games.  But Kareem Hunt returned, and gave them something, and Pacheco at-least became active again at the end of November.
The defense remained strong.
The coaching staff is excellent.
KC is entering the post-season with a legitimate opportunity to 3 peat.
That would be a remarkable achievement in any era, but particularly today.
They’ve already been to the AFC Championship Game 6 consecutive years, which is just insane.

It became cliche during the year to read articles, or hear talking heads say, “What’s wrong with Mahomes?”
I don’t think there was anything wrong with him.  The offense they available most weeks wasn’t built to light up the scoreboard.
His yards per attempt were 6.8 vs. his 7.8 career average.
Do you think that was him, or his surrounding cast?
I’d know how I’d bet.

It’s very hard to compare eras in football in my opinion because of how the rules have changed.
I’ve seen some over the years anoint Mahomes as the best ever.
That feels disrespectful to me of other greats, who didn’t play in this offensive era, and I feel are every bit his equal.
Even in this era, I don’t know that I necessarily feel he’s any better than Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, or Joe Burrow.
The flipside here is that I do believe he has to be regarded as the current GOAT, even if his numbers aren’t as eyepopping, at-least until / if Jackson, Allen, Burrow are ever wrapping their hands around the Lombardi.
It’s a team game, and QBs probably get both too much of the credit, and too much of the blame; but Mahomes’ is a 3x Super Champ, 3x Super Bowl MVP, and a 2x MVP.
He’s been a Canton lock for sometime, and if he were to win it all again this year – then the only story left for him is how many of Tom Brady’s career accomplishments can he chase down?

DVOA Rankings:
Houston – 16th overall, 26th rated offense, 3rd rate defense, 8th rated special teams
Kansas City – 8th overall, 8th rated offense, 12th rated defense, 12th rated special teams

The Chiefs beat Houston 27-19 in Kansas City December 21st.
In that game, Mixon was limited to 14 carries, but the Texans rushed at a very healthy 4.9 yards per attempt.
That was also the game Tank Dell got hurt, and he was having an impact 6 catches, 98 yards, and a score before he had to leave.
Both teams were 7 of 13 on 3rd down.
Both teams averaged 5.4 yards per play.
KC held possession an extra 7 minutes, and won the turnover battle 2-0 as CJ Stroud was picked twice.

The Chiefs are an 8 point favorite, and currently given a 62.7% chance of advancing to their 7th consecutive AFC Championship Game appearance.

Washington at Detroit

The Commanders and Jayden Daniels extended their good vibes in the Wild Card round, as they beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to earn a trip to Detroit.

It’s a no-lose scenario for the Commanders at this point.
Daniels has had one of the all-time great rookie QB seasons, and they seem well positioned going forward.
If their season ends against the NFC’s #1 seed, there is no shame there.

Washington won the ’91 Super Bowl, beating Detroit in the NFC Championship.
Since that Super Bowl title, Washington had won a total of 3 playoff games before last weekend, with their last playoff win being January 7th, 2006.

So yeah, Washington is playing with house money here.

There are no expectations from anyone that Washington is going to Detroit and win.

I’d think the path to a possible upset would be getting into a shootout.
Get out to an early lead, and watch the pressure build for the Lions.
Their the favorite.
Their the home team.
Their the team coming off a bye.
If Washington can hang around, and not be buried early; there’s a chance.

Against the Bucs, Daniels averaged 7.7 yards per passing attempt, and also had a team high 13 rushing attempts.
If Washington is going to make this game at all surprising, it has to be more than just Daniels.
Brian Robinson Jr had 16 yards on 10 attempts against Tampa. That won’t work here.
Robison averaged 4.3 yards per attempt on the year. I’d think you’d him to go for at-least 15 carries, and 60 yards.

Dyami Brown was a 3rd round pick in 2021.
This year he had just 30 catches for 308 yards (10.3 yards per reception).
Against Tampa, Brown had 5 catches on 5 targets for 89 yards, including a long of 30.
I’d think Washington would need similar production vs. Detroit as Terry McLaurin is going to get the majority of the Lions attention.
TE Zach Ertz had 66 caches, and 7 td’s during the year.  Washington will need him to come up big in the red zone.

As the regular season was ending, it seems like the general vibe amongst NFL fans was that the injuries Detroit had sustained during the year were becoming too much to overcome.
Then Detroit beat up the Vikings 31-9 in the regular season final, and everyone seemed to be back on the Lions bandwagon.

Maybe multiple things can be true at once?
i.e. Detroit has suffered a lot of injuries this year, and that has increased their vulnerability to a degree.
You can also only be so vulnerable, when you’ve gone 15-2, and outscored your opposition by a league high 222 points.

What do you think about Jared Goff?
Would it surprise you that the former #1 overall pick now has 5 NFL season with at-least 4,400 passing yards, and 5 seasons with at-least 28 TD’s?
He’s in a system that works for him.
He’s surrounded by a lot of talent.
He plays more than half of his games in a dome.
But he’s more than just a guy, and should generally get more respect than he does.

RB David Montgomery was knocked out of action in the mid-December game vs. Buffalo, but he’s been back practicing this week, and is expected to be available tomorrow.
Regardless of Montgomery’s availability, 2nd year back Jahmyr Gibbs just put together a year.  1,412 yards rushing at 5.6 yards per attempt, with 16 TDs!  Coupled with 52 receptions, 517 yards, and another 4 TDs.
That’s a monster year.

Detroit had 4 pass catchers (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, and Gibbs) with at-least 52 catches.  St. Brown and Williams both went over the 1,000 yard mark, with St. Brown hauling in 115 receptions, and Williams averaging 17.3 yards per catch!  St. Brown was 1st team All-Pro.

The skill guys can be set-up for a great year, when you place 3 different offensive lineman (Penei Sewell, Kevin Zeitler, and Frank Ragnow) onto the Pro Bowl roster.  Sewell was 1st team All-Pro.

Defensively, Aidan Hutchinson is still out, though he’s telling people he thinks he could be available for the Super Bowl should Detroit advance.
DT Alim McNeil is a Pro Bowler.  Safety Kerby Joseph was 1st team All-Pro with 9 picks.
Former Raven Za’Darius Smith had 9 sacks on the year between his time with Cleveland, and then Detroit.
2023 1st rounder Jack Campbell had 131 tackles.

Punter Jack Fox was 1st team All-Pro.

DVOA Rankings
Washington – 10th overall, 6th offense, 23rd defense, 9th special teams
Detroit – 2nd overall, 3rd offense, 5th defense, 1st special teams

Detroit is a 9.5 point favorite, and currently given a 73% chance of advancing to the NFC Championship Game.