NFL Divisional Round Preview / Sunday Games

We previewed the NFL’s two Saturday Divisional Round games here.

Today we look at the two games scheduled for Sunday.

All percentages mentioned below are from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.
All DVOA numbers from FTN Fantasy.  You can find the final 2024 season DVOA numbers at FTN Fantasy here.

Sunday January 19th

LA Rams at Philadelphia

I thought the Rams had a chance to beat the Minnesota Vikings in the Wild Card round, due to the respect I have for the Rams Head Coach Sean McVay, and with their QB Matthew Stafford.
I don’t think I saw them effectively having that game won by halftime.
Vikings QB Sam Darnold was sacked 9 times!
Part that astounding number was Darnold holding the ball too long; but the Rams defense clearly deserves credit as well.
Stafford averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, and they get production on the ground from Kyren Williams (4.8 yards per attempt).
Puka Nucau had 5 catches.
If the Rams can get Cooper Kupp unlocked vs. the Eagles; it’s not impossible to envision a possible upset Rams win in Philadelphia.

Not impossible, but not likely.

The Eagles went 14-3 on the season, 8-1 at home during the regular season.
Last week in their Wild Card game, they beat a capable Packers team 22-10.
The Rams dominated the Vikings with their pass rush.
The Eagles controlled the Packers by picking off Jordan Love 3 times.
Jalen Hurts had his first game action since December 22nd, when he was knocked out with a concussion after just pass attempts.
Against Green Bay, Hurts didn’t have huge numbers, but the biggest thing was that he was healthy and available.

I think Hurts is a bit of a victim of his own success.
His ’23 season was excellent, and he was in MVP consideration.
He deserved the kudos he received that year, but I think the expectation bar was raised to a level which might not be consistently realistic.
I see Hurts as a guy you can win games with. A leader.
I don’t think he’s a guy that is going to be a guy that is the primary reason a team wins week to week.
If you just look at him as a capable distributor, who can be a piece of a strong team – you probably like him.
If you are looking at him to be the guy which carries the Eagles to a title, you are probably going to be left wanting.

The Eagles have bevy of weapons (Saquon Barkley, First Team All-Pro, AJ Brown, 2nd team All-Pro, DeVonta Smith, Jahan Dotson, Dallas Goedert). Their LT Jordan Mailata was also 2nd team All-Pro LT.
Despite these assets, the Eagles offense was just 13th overall by DVOA.

The commentary I often saw about the Eagles offense was that it was boring.
Boring or not, only 6 teams scored more points, and the Eagles outscored their opponents by 160 points on the year.

Maybe the thought process of some is that with that group of weapons, Hurts and the Eagles offense should have gaudier offensive numbers.
Okay, but again the Eagles went 14-3.
They controlled their opponents.

Maybe both points of view are accurate.
It’s a formidable crew, and for whatever reason they didn’t reach the ceiling their ability suggests they should have.

With all of this talk about the Eagles offense, maybe I’m missing the larger point; which is their defense is 1st overall by DVOA.
LB Zack Baun was 1st Team All-Pro.
DL Jalen Carter was 2nd Team.

When these teams faced off November 25th (a 37-20 Eagles win) in LA, Stafford was sacked 5 times.
The Rams were able to run a bit though, as Williams averaged 4.5 yards per carry.
Nacua went off in that game for 9 catches, and 117 yards.  Kupp contributed with 8 catches and a score.

Maybe not a good sign for the Rams that they got 17 catches from Nacua and Kupp in that game, and it wasn’t close to being enough.

Barkley had 255 yards, and 2 scores on 26 carries. If you take out the 72 yard run he had, he still had 183 yards.
Crazy.
The Rams allowed all of those yards on the ground, and Brown still had 109 yards and a score through the air.

Barkley is going to get his yards.
But LA can’t have him gouge them to that degree and have any chance.

DVOA Rankings:
LA – 17th overall, 10th offense, 26th defense, 19th special teams
Philadelphia – 5th overall, 13th offense, 1st defense, 14th special teams

The Eagles are a 6.5 point favorite, and given a 65.4% chance of winning.

Baltimore at Buffalo

I’m finding it to be an interminable wait until 6:30 tomorrow night for this game.

The Bills and Ravens both have a lot of pressure on them.

Maybe there is more pressure on the Ravens, as this is the third Baltimore team since 2019 to have an all-time great DVOA season.
The National narrative is that Lamar Jackson and the Ravens get it done in the regular season, and wilt in January.
There is similar talk about the Bills overall, but there has been a feeling expressed by many that Josh Allen has elevated a limited supporting cast.

In ’18, Jackson took over for Joe Flacco in the middle of his rookie season. The Ravens would lose as favorite to the Chargers, but again, Jackson was a rookie who hadn’t even started all year.

In ’19, Jackson is MVP of the league in his 2nd season, and first year as the full time starter.  The Ravens got trucked by Derrick Henry. Sometimes the best team doesn’t win, especially when a great player puts his team on their back.  Jackson didn’t have a great game, but did have 500 yards of total offense.

In ’20, the Ravens got revenge on the Titans in the Wild Card game, before losing at Buffalo in the Divisional round.  Jackson was knocked out of that game with a concussion.

In ’21, Jackson gets hurt and doesn’t finish the year.
In ’22, Jackson gets hurt and doesn’t finish the year. The Ravens lose a competitive game to Cincinnati with Tyler Huntley starting.

Last year in ’23, the Ravens beat Houston, and then lost at home in the AFC Championship to Kansas City.
Yes, the Ravens were favored. Yes, the Ravens were the better team, and didn’t play well at all.
Can hold that game on Jackson and the Ravens, but an awful lot of teams have lost to KC these past 7 years.

Overall, my point being I think the national take on Jackson struggling in the post-season is overblown, but that’s definitely the general sentiment that exists.
Which is understandable to a degree. That feeling will exist until Jackson proves it wrong.

Buffalo’s playoff history with Allen is:

In ’19, Allen made the playoffs for the first time in his second year. They lost an OT game at Houston.

In ’20, the Bills beat the Colts and Ravens before losing to Chiefs in the AFC Championship.

in ’21, Buffalo won the Wild Card game over New England, before again losing to KC in the Divisional Round. Allen earned some further respect, with a big performance.

In ’22, the Bills won the Wild Card game over Miami, before losing to Cincinnati in the Divisional Round.

In ’23, Allen and the Bills again won a Wild Card game, this time beating the Steelers; before losing to the Chiefs in the Divisional Round.

You’ll see and hear some commentary that Allen has to breakthrough in the Playoffs; but ultimately I think most rationale people recognize the Chiefs have been better teams than the Bills.
While there is again some pressure on Allen and the Bills to breakthrough; if the Bills season ends tomorrow night I think the majority of the football world will say Allen didn’t have enough surrounding him.

Is that fair?
Maybe.

I do think the Ravens have the deeper, more talented roster.
That’s shown in the numbers of respective All-Pros, and Pro Bowlers.
Shown in the DVOA numbers.
There should be no shame to Allen, and the Bills as a whole if they lose to the Ravens.

But it goes too far to me, when I hear takes effectively saying Allen is lifting up the Little Sisters of the Poor on his own.
Allen’s great. He’s the main reason Buffalo is a threat.
He does have some talent around him.

As I said in the Wild Card preview last week:

The Bills finished the year 13-4, and won the AFC East.
A popular narrative to prop up Allen’s MVP candidacy is that there isn’t a ton of surrounding offensive talent.
That seems odd to me as James Cook and Ray Davis is a strong duo at RB, and Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid is a quality group of pass catchers.
Seems clear that Allen was more comfortable this year not having to look for Diggs on every possession.
Defensively the Bills recently got back LB Matt Milano.  That certainly helps a run defense which has struggled this year.
Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver, and AJ Epenesa are other quality defensive pieces.
In addition to Allen, the Bills sent OT Dion Dawkins to the Pro Bowl.

I’ve been very confident in this match-up from a Ravens perspective all week, but maybe a bit less-so as kickoff nears.
If the Ravens play their A game, I don’t think anyone beats them.
But how often do you get the A game?

I think too many Ravens fans, and frankly too much the National media has been overly dismissive of Buffalo’s chances.
I don’t like that.
Like the Ravens, the Bills outscored their regular season opponents by 157 points.
The Bills are at home.
I think Jackson is the best QB and player in the game, and should again be the NFL MVP; but Allen is certainly in the same elite tier.

Every pick I see is taking the Ravens.
That feels odd to me, as this is a pick’em type of game.

The confidence I’ve had and have with the Ravens in this game is less about the Ravens 35-10 head-to-head win the Ravens had in September; and more about the difficultly the Bills have had stopping the run all year.

For the season, Buffalo allowed 4.5 yards per carry.
I’m feeling pretty good about Jackson and Henry doing damage against the Bills run defense.

The Ravens are more talented overall, and should be able to run.
Those are reasons to believe.

But the Bills are a quality team, at home, with an elite QB of their own.
It shouldn’t surprise any Ravens fans, if tomorrow ends up being an unhappy night in Baltimore.

If you are hanging on to the domination the Ravens showed in the September game, I’d caution you that the Bills will look different tomorrow. 
Of course, if you are a Bills fan, I’d remind you that the Ravens will also look different. The Baltimore defense has improved considerably the last 6-8 weeks, and the Ravens did have success against Allen and the Bills when their Secondary was in total flux.

So, who wins tomorrow?

Tell me who executes.

Who wins on 3rd down?

Who makes plays in the RZ?

Does the wind, cold, and possible snow impact ball control and the passing (and kicking) games?

Who turns the ball over?

DVOA Rankings:
Baltimore – 1st overall, 1st rated offense, 6th rated defense, 23rd rated special teams
Buffalo – 4th overall, 2nd offense, 11th defense, 28th special teams

This should be a close game.
If it becomes a shootout, that could be uncomfortable.

I think the Ravens are going to win.
I think the Ravens should win.
I’m not allowing myself to believe the Ravens can’t lose this game, or that it would be some huge upset if they don’t.

The Ravens lost the AFC Championship game last year on January 28th.
The 2024 season began with another loss to the Chiefs on September 5th.

If the Ravens can get past Buffalo, they’ll have earned another opportunity to play the Chiefs.
Kansas City has just beat Houston, and advanced to the AFC Championship for a remarkable 7th consecutive season.

The wrestler Ric Flair used to say, “To be the man, you’ve got to beat the man.”

If the Ravens want a chance to beat the man, and take down the 2x defending champs; they’ve got to beat the Bills first.

The Ravens are a 1 point favorite, and the Bills are given a 50.3% chance of winning.

Quick Takes: 

• I loved that Jackson came out running against Pittsburgh, and I’d like to see that again tomorrow vs. the Bills.
• Nobody likes tackling Henry, and it becomes even harder in the 4th Quarter in the cold. Make the Bills get tired of tackling. Buffalo has run a lot of lighter sets. Make them pay for that.
• Who gets the assignment of spying Allen on 3rd down? Don’t let Allen keep moving the chains with his legs.
• Doesn’t seem like Zay Flowers is likely to play. The Ravens didn’t need Flowers against the Steelers. Is his absence more on display vs. Buffalo?
• Just like last week, my take is that if Flowers isn’t available, I want to see more 2 TE sets with Mark Andrews, and Charlie Kolar; and Isaiah Likely split out.