UEFA Champions League 2024-2025 Knockout Phase Playoffs

The League Phase of this seasons UCL has been completed and the draw for the Knockout Phase Playoffs was conducted on January 31. But before we get into this next phase lets do a quick recap for the initial League Phase which began play last September. Thirty six teams began an odd ball set of matches to establish the right to move forward. Each team played eight matches, 4 at home and 4 away. However, unlike all previous seasons, there were no groups and teams didn’t play both home and away against the same teams. Confused yet?

In this new format all 36 teams records were compiled into the standings with three sets of final outcomes.

a. The top 8 finishers automatically advanced to the Round of 16 and received byes for the Knockout Phase Playoffs, awaiting the other 8 teams.

b. Teams finishing 9 to 24 advanced to the Knockout Phase Playoffs. These 16 teams were then drawn to pairings for a more traditional home and away series with 8 teams moving on.

c. Teams finishing 25 to 36 were eliminated.

After watching this new approach I still have mixed feelings about it. Like all sports its inevitable that they expand their product to include more teams. Under the mantra of exposing more fans to the game which of course is really a euphemism for making for money. Originally I had two issues with the new approach. The first being that adding more teams doesn’t necessarily make for a better product. Under the old format of 32 teams there were teams in there that just weren’t that competitive. But the expansion to 36 teams didn’t really dilute the product much. So in that aspect I am ok with the expansion. However, the second issue still sticks to me. Under the Group Stage format, while the draw was still very important, it became even more so under the new format. Without groups and the traditional home and away matches the luck of the draw was even more a factor. But the biggest drawback to me was the ability for fans to watch the groups develop and ascertain how a certain team was fairing and what they needed to do to advance. In the League Phase approach that was pretty hard to do. Now certainly, the key, as always, was to just win your matches. But under this format there were just so many more permutations to the calculus. Overall I still favor the group format but this approach wasn’t terrible. So after the 8 match League was completed here’s how it shook out.

Champions League 2024/25 Final League Phase Table

The toughest matchup of this round. Both of these teams were heavy favorites to make the Round of 16 either by earning a bye or winning their Knockout Phase Playoff draw. Well bad news for City or Real fans but one of you are toast. The good news? This is going to be a terrific matchup! Form wise they are pretty similar with Man C being 3-0-2 and Real at 3-1-1 in their respective last 5. This is a great example of how impactful a tournament draw can be. While both of these teams may have underperformed in the League Phase, they are still 2 of the biggest soccer clubs in the world loaded with top tier talent. While I typically prefer to have the first leg on the road in this situation I think Man C is glad to be at home. They need a boost to win this matchup and perhaps being home at City of Manchester Stadium in front of over 50,000 fans may up their game a bit. I tend to think that this matchup will boil down to Erling Haaland and Phil Foden versus Antonio Rudiger and Ferland Mendy. Both teams have very strong midfields and they should balance each other out. The question for Real is can Rudiger physically matchup well with Haaland and if he does can Mendy then keep Foden away from goal? Oh but Real fans say “hey we can attack too”. And yes they certainly can with Kylian Mbappe and Rodrygo. But City then says “Gvardiol and Lewis can handle them.”  But then there’s that one guy left not accounted for. Vinicious Junior. The dude who led Real in goals during League Play with 7.

Prediction – This is just oh so close. But I think Jude Bellingham tilts it in favor of Real.

Juventus vs PSV

Now if you are a fan of the USMNT then THIS is the one to watch. Juventus will start Weston Mckennie…..somewhere. He has played just about everything but striker and keeper of late and been playing great. They also have Tim Weah who they list as a forward but he also has been playing all over the pitch of lately, mostly at outside back. PSV has Sergino Dest (who may or may not return from injury), Malik Tillman, Richie Ledezma, and Ricardo Pepi. Its likely that we’ll see at least 3 US players on the field and quite reasonable that we could see 5 if not all 6 of these guys on at the same timxe. How crazy would that be! Juventus has only gone 2-2-1 lately while PSV has 3-2-0. But be careful here. Juve plays in the much tougher Italian Serie A compared to the Dutch Erevidisie, These two teams matchup fairly well but I think the Serie A league has Juve toughened up a bit better to handle the pressure of this stage.

Prediction – Juventus goes through.

Sporting CP vs Borussia Dortmund

These two have nearly identical records of late. Sporting 2-2-1 compared to Dortmund’s 2-1-2. Why does Dortmund win? Because they are deeper and have more experience on big stage matches than Sporting. They also have a much better attacking side. Sporting has a terrific goal scored in Viktor Gyokeres (Swedish striker) but he is the only Sporting player to score multiple goals in the League Phase. Dortmund will shadow him tightly so the question is going to be can some other player produce goals for the green and white? On the other side of the pitch, Dortmund had 4 players with multiple goals in the League Phase led by Serhou Guirassy with 9 goals. Sporting is going to have a hard time keeping so many scoring threats away from the net. Maybe Dortmund will actually play USMNT forward, Gio Reyna. The player they insisted was worth in the neighborhood of $18M during the recently closed transfer window but who they also don’t rate as anything more than a late minute substitute. Maybe he’ll get some legit time in these 2 matches?

Prediction – Dortmund advances.

Club Brugge vs Atalanta

Atalanta was the top seeded team for the Knockout Phase Playoff sitting just a single point from auto advancing with a bye. And they have been playing well coming in on a 3-1-1 run. Their front line of Ademola Lookman (4), Charles De Ketelaere (4), and Mateo Retegui (3) (he also leads the Serie A in goals scored so far in the Italian league) accounted for 11 goals in their league matches. But the problem for Club Brugge doesn’t end their. Atlanata 7 other players score during this phase. They come at you in so many ways they are tough to defend. But Club Brugge has some weapons of their own and in this setup it going to start with the defense. Belgian National Team keeper Simon Mignolet is going to have to keep Atlanata off the scoresheet. But I don’t see it happening. They haven’t  been playing that well lately (1-2-2) and in fact were the final team to quality for this phase. Four teams ended up tied in points and they were third among those teams in goal differential at -4 so they got in over GNK Dynamo who sat at -11. This doesn’t bode well for the Belgian side.

Projection – Atalanta advances.

Feyenoord vs Milan

Milan comes in running 4-0-1 and Captain America has been playing lights out. Christian Pulisic is probably in the best form of his career right now and is clearly loving playing in Italy. He has scored 6 goals and assisted on 6 others. Those assists putting him tied for 2nd and 3rd in the Serie A. Milan had an interesting run during the League Phase. An all or nothing deal. They won 5 and lost 3 with no draws. Perhaps it was something in the water this winter in Europe? The teams that finished 10 through 13th in the League all had identical 5-0-3 records with goal differential dictating their final standings. Pulisic tends to rise to the occasion in big matches. Lets hope that continues here. Feyenoord simply has been slumping of late going 2-0-3. They had lost 3 in a row until a 3-0 win last Saturday over cross town rival Sparta Rotterdam. But Sparta sits near the bottom in the Dutch league so don’t make too much of that, They need to play better. Much better. They are lead by Algerian forward Anis Hadj Moussa and Dutch midfielder Antoni Milambo who each tallied 3 goals in the previous phase. Oddsmakers see this one as a near coin flip with a slight nod to Milan. I trust Captain America.

Projection – Milan moves on.

Celtic vs Bayern Munich

Another on of don’t let their form fool you. They come in with identical 4-0-1 records of late. And they both sit in first in their respective domestic leagues. But Bayern plays in the much tougher German Bundesliga while Celtic plays in the much weaker Scottish Premiership. Odds makers have them at over 90% to advance. Here’s a look at the likely starting 11 for the German side from back to front: Neuer; Laimer, Upamecano, Kim, Guerreiro; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Coman, Musiala, Olise; Kane. Now lets compare that to the expected Celtic starting XI: Schmeichel; Johnston, Carter-Vickers, Trusty, Taylor; Engels, McGregor, Hatate; Kuhn, Idah, Yang. No offense to Celtic fans, and I love Cameron Carter-Vickers and Austin Trusty both USMNT players and Kasper Schmeichel son of goalkeeping legend Peter Schmeichel. But to be brutally honest this one should be over after the first leg in Glasgow. f

Projection – Bayern, nuff said.

Monaco vs Benfica

Here’s an interesting matchup. Both ended up middle of the pack in the league tied with 13 points. Neither come in playing very well or for that matter very bad. Both are on a 3-0-2 stretch. Benfica had a +4 goal differential compared to a 0 for Monaco in the league. Yet odds makers have Benfica a 4-1 favorite to move on. Why is that? In a nutshell I think it boils down to this. The goal in the league phase was to advance. Certainly, you wanted a top 8 slot to auto advance to the Round of 16 but in the end its about moving on. Once teams had pretty well secured advancement yet no real shot to get an auto spot they didn’t necessarily play their strongest players. Give some playing time to younger players and rest your main starters. Both which can pay dividends down the road. And when you compare rosters you just don’t see the depth or talent on Monaco compared to Benfica. One of Monaco’s best strikers, USMNT Folarin Balogun is out injured. Benfica has aging Angle Di Maria directing the attack. While the 36 year old Argentinian isn’t the scoring threat he once was he still is very capable of orchestrating an offense. Too much for Monaco to handle.

Projection – Benfica advances.

As with years past all UCL matches are shown on the CBS Sports family of channels, primarily on the streaming service Paramount Plus. Lots of great soccer the next several weeks. But don’t miss the Man City vs Real Madrid for great soccer or the Juventus vs PSV match to watch a bunch of US guys on the field at the same time.