Following a regular season which saw them finish with a record of 24-7 (14-6 Big Ten Conference), Maryland reached the Big Ten Tournament’s Semifinal Round for the first time since 2016 but failed to advance further after suffering a heartbreaking loss to Michigan. They were selected as the West Region’s 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and will face off against 13-seed Grand Canyon on Friday afternoon in Seattle. If they were to advance, they’d play the winner of 5-seed Memphis vs. 12-seed Colorado State on Sunday. This is Maryland’s highest NCAA Tournament seed since 2015.
Grand Canyon Lopes (13)
ESPN BPI Ranking: #87
KenPom Rankings: #93 (#149 ORtg, #67 DRtg; #14 AdjT)
NET Rankings: #92 (0-1 Quad 1, 1-3 Quad 2, 9-2 Quad 3, 15-1 Quad 4)
Torvik Rankings: #83 (#127 AdjOE, #60 AdjDE; #15 AdjT)
Grand Canyon finished the regular season with a record of 23-7 (13-3 Western Athletic Conference), and won their conference tournament by knocking off top-seeded Utah Valley in the championship game. This is their third straight NCAA Tournament appearance, and they won their first-ever tournament game as a 12-seed last season when they upset 5-seed Saint Mary’s. Bryce Drew is in his fifth year as their head coach after spending the previous four seasons at the helm of Vanderbilt.
The Lopes are a team led by their defense which averages 15 forced turnovers per game, tied for 13th-best in the country. They also have good size in their frontcourt for a mid-major, led by 6’10”, 250 pound center Duke Brennan (10.7 ppg, 9.2 rpg). Much of the team’s scoring rests with their wing pairing of 6’8” JaKobe Coles (14.8 ppg) and 6’7” Tyon Grant-Foster (14.5 ppg). They also rebound well, combining to average 11.7 per game.
While Grand Canyon possesses good size in their frontcourt, they don’t shoot the ball from the perimeter very well at all. As a team, they’re averaging 31.5% from beyond the arc and rank as the 285th-best team nationally in that regard. And while they’re one of the best in the country at getting to the free throw line on their drives, they’re only shooting 73.3% from the charity stripe. The majority of their offensive threat comes from the fast breaks they’re able to produce from the turnovers that they force.
On paper, Drew’s team doesn’t appear to be a terrible matchup for Maryland. The Terrapins take care of the ball well, meaning that Grand Canyon likely won’t be able to produce as many opportunities as they typically do on the fast break. Conversely, they’re prone to turnovers on the offensive end and Kevin Willard’s squad is one of the best nationally at creating points off of takeaways. Defending without fouling on the Lopes’ drives will be key, and they should look to pack the paint and force them to take shots from beyond the arc.
#16 Memphis Tigers (5)
ESPN BPI Ranking: #46
KenPom Rankings: #51 (#72 ORtg, #40 DRtg; #27 AdjT)
NET Rankings: #49 (6-1 Quad 1, 5-2 Quad 2, 11-2 Quad 3, 7-0 Quad 4)
Torvik Rankings: #60 (#88 AdjOE, #48 AdjDE; #30 AdjT)
Memphis finished the regular season with a record of 26-5 (16-2 American Athletic Conference), and won their conference tournament as the top seeded team. They’re back in the NCAA Tournament after missing out last year, and will be looking for their first tournament victory since 2022. Penny Hardaway is in his seventh season as the head coach of his alma mater.
The Tigers are led by an efficient defense, which is one of the best in the country at blocking shots. Maryland fans will be familiar with Illinois transfer Dain Dainja, who’s averaging 14.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg, and 1.3 bpg. He’s joined in the frontcourt by Nicholas Jourdain, who averages 6.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, and 1.1 bpg. They have good size, force a good number of turnovers per game, and are a well-balanced unit on that end of the floor.
Offensively, they’re one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country. They shoot 38.0% from beyond the arc, good for 17th-best nationally. As you’d expect given their frontcourt’s size, they get plenty of offensive rebounds and second-chance points. They love to run on the fast break, and get a lot of their points in transition. Sophomore guard PJ Haggerty leads them in scoring with 21.8 ppg, and has made 38.4% of his attempts beyond the arc this season.
Similar to Grand Canyon, Memphis’ strengths seemingly match up fairly well against Maryland. They’re extremely prone to turnovers on the offensive end, averaging 13.8 per game which is good for 331st-best in the country. Oddly enough given their size, they allow a ton of offensive rebounds. That failure to box out would play into the Terrapins’ favor, as Julian Reese and Derik Queen have the ability to feast on second-chance points. While the Tigers get to the free throw line at a good rate, they’re only converting at a 70.2% rate.
Colorado State Rams (12)
ESPN BPI Ranking: #53
KenPom Rankings: #42 (#43 ORtg, #49 DRtg; #252 AdjT)
NET Rankings: #47 (3-5 Quad 1, 7-2 Quad 2, 4-2 Quad 3, 11-0 Quad 4)
Torvik Rankings: #38 (#34 AdjOE, #46 AdjDE; #243 AdjT)
Colorado State finished the regular season with a record of 22-9 (16-4 Mountain West Conference), and won their conference tournament as the 2-seed. They’re back in the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year, and will be looking for their first Round of 64 victory since 2013. Niko Medved is in his seventh season as their head coach.
The Rams are a well-balanced team, efficient on both the offensive and defensive ends of the court. Senior wing Nique Clifford leads the way for them offensively, averaging 19.0 ppg and 9.7 rpg while shooting 39.8% from beyond the arc. They don’t get to the free throw line all that often, but when they do they’re one of the best-shooting teams in the country from the charity stripe. Size is not a strength for them, and their frontcourt is led by 6’7” Rashaan Mbemba and 6’8” Jaylen Crocker-Johnson.
Defensively, they do their best work inside the paint which is fairly surprising given their lack of size. They switch well on ball-screens, making drives into the lane difficult. Their frontcourt’s ability to box out bigger defenders is impressive, and they don’t allow many second-chance points.
Medved’s team might be the most popular 12-seed in the tournament this year, and it’s for good reason. Aside from failing to get offensive rebounds, there isn’t much that they don’t do well. They’re a well-balanced team without many glaring weaknesses. Maryland’s size would be their biggest advantage, and they would also likely get a number of open looks from the perimeter after drawing the defense inside.
Terps Analyst
Zack is a financial analyst for a defense contractor in Washington, DC. The Owings Mills native focuses most of his efforts on Maryland Football recruiting and individual coach and player pieces; but also covers Terps Basketball. He has established relationships with Big Ten beat reporters across the conference, which he utilizes in his game previews. Now a Sr. Terps Analyst for BSL, Zack can be reached at: zack.kiesel@baltimoresportsandlife.com.