Maryland Trying To Earn Their Way Back To The Elite

Sunday night, Derik Queen propelled the University of Maryland into the Sweet 16 with his buzzer beater vs. Colorado State.

That was fun.

There was elation in the moment.

Had Queen’s shot gone awry, it would have been pretty disappointing.

Give Colorado State all the credit they deserve; they played hard, and largely controlled the game.
It was a typical NCAA Tournament game, where you can see the favored team is getting tight, and the underdog is reveling in the moment.

Losing that game would have been disappointing for Maryland, because it would have represented a missed opportunity.
Queen will be entering the NBA Draft.  Julian Reese’s Maryland career is ending, as is Selton Miguel’s.

Will Maryland be able to adequately replace those components in the Portal?
Will Kevin WIllard be staying in College Park, or moving on to Villanova?

Those are big questions for whenever this ’24-’25 season officially ends.

What we know is that this season didn’t end Sunday, and Maryland was able to do enough to survive and advance.
We also know that this is just the third Sweet 16 appearance for Maryland since winning the National Championship in 2002, and for the moment that should be savored.

Maryland’s had some quality teams since their Championship.
The 2009-10 team had a chance to do real damage, but were knocked out in the 2nd round when Michigan State knocked down a 3 with a second to go.
The 2016-17 team had a lot of hype, and did advance to the S16, before getting smacked around by Kansas.
The 2019-20 team is forever a what-if team, their season eliminated by COVID like everyone else.

There are other teams since 2002 which have been good; these three aforementioned season are just a few which immediately came to mind.

Since joining the Big Ten for the 2014-15 season, Maryland has been a tournament team 8 times (including ’19-’20).
They’ve generally been good, but they’ve yet to be great.
They shared a Conference Regular Season Title in ’19-’20.
They have yet to win a Big Ten Conference Tournament.

2002 is a long time ago.
The program hasn’t cut any nets since the ’04 ACC Tournament Championship.
Despite this long lack of net cutting, my expectations for the program have remained.

The minimal annual standards I have for Maryland is a Top 5 finish in league play, finishing in the Top 25 Nationally, and getting to the Sweet 16.
That’s what constitutes a successful season in my eyes.
Anything less than that, is not enough.

This will be a successful season regardless of what happens tomorrow.
They did finish Top 5 in league play.
They will finish in the Top 25.
They did reach the Sweet 16.

For the Non Blue Blood programs; the traditional thinking was you wanted to stack such seasons together, and build.
Claw your way from competitive, to solid, to conference contender, to National power.

That’s what Maryland did from 1994-2002.

But the game has changed in this portal era.
Program building still exists, but what constitutes program building has changed.

It’s no longer going to be about stacking classes, and developing players over the course of multiple years.
It’s about winning today, and then finding a way to win tomorrow with an immediate new cast of characters.

Things change quickly, as any Maryland fan can attest to, if they think back to just last year.
The ’23-’24 Terps were abysmal (for Maryland) finishing 15-17 overall, and 7-13 in conference play.
They couldn’t shoot, and apathy was setting in amongst the fanbase.

Queen committed to Maryland last February. Obviously that was huge.
That was followed by Reese deciding to stay for his Senior year, when surely he could have gone elsewhere. That was also big.
Miguel, Ja’Kobi Gillespie, and Rodney Rice were targeted additions in the portal, that choose to come to College Park.

The Crab 5 was born, and they’ve been a lot of fun to watch this year.
Queen’s tenure in College Park is going to be short, but he etched himself a position in Maryland lure with not only making the shot, but by demanding the ball in that situation.
You can inject his, “I’m from Baltimore, that’s why,” line directly into my veins.
Just priceless.

Win or lose tomorrow, we know Maryland is going to have to build around new names for next season.
You’d like to think that with the success they’ve had this year, it will make it that much easier to find the next additions; but that remains to be seen.
Obviously seeing what happens with Willard will become step 1.

I said above that getting to the Sweet 16 should be savored, at-least for a moment.
If you think about where the MD program has been and gone through since the National Title, I think that’s self-evident.
For us now older Maryland fans, we should also remember how young these Terps are.
Reese – the elder statesman – was born June 30th, 2003.
Or in other words, a year after MD’s National Title.

Yikes.

When you are young, you think you have forever in-front of you.

As you age, years blur, season’s blur, even decades blur.
More yesterday’s, than more tomorrow’s.

Life wise, I’m sure these young Terrapins feel like forever is in-front of them.
Basketball wise, I hope they realize all they definitively have available to them is tomorrow.

As a fan of the Terps, I’m thankful to this roster for bring relevancy back to Maryland basketball.
That’s great, and if their season ends tomorrow, they’ll still be remembered for such.

But now I want to be greedy.
Maryland has only made the Elite 8 four times ever.
Tomorrow is an opportunity to reach that step, and extend the season another two days at-least.

Florida should be expected to win tomorrow.
They’re the #1 seed.
They’re 32-4, and finished 14-4 in this year’s loaded SEC.

ESPN Bet has the Gators as 6.5 point favorites.
ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor is giving Florida a 61.6% chance of winning.

In the KenPom rankings, Florida is 3rd overall with the 2nd rated offense, and 10th rated defense.
Maryland is 10th overall, with the 22nd rated offense, and 6th rated defense.

Florida has 10 players who averaged over 10 minutes per game.
Their deeper than MD, and will try and utilize that depth to wear down Maryland’s starters.

Guard Walter Clayton Jr was 1st Team All SEC, averaging 17.9 ppg, and shooting 38.7% from 3.
Forward Alex Condon was 3rd Team All SEC, averaging 11.1 ppg, with 7.8 boards.

Guard Alijah Martin averaged 14.6 ppg, shooting 35.4% from 3, and averaging 1.6 steals per.
Guard Will Richard averaged 13.5 ppg, shooting 35.6% from 3, and averaging 1.7 steals per.

Florida averaged:
85.4 points per game
41.9 rebounds per game
15.9 assists per game
69.4 points allowed per game

Maryland averaged:
81.4 points per game
41.9 rebounds per game
14.4 assists per game
66.6 points allowed per game

Florida is favored with reason, but Maryland is good enough to beat anyone on a given night.
Colorado State played MD loose and attacked, in-part because they didn’t have any burden of expectations.
The same will be true for Maryland against the Gators.
Maryland has a chance to take the fight to Florida, and make Florida uncomfortable.
Maryland’s chances will elevate if they can keep extending the game, and make Florida feel increasing pressure.

I don’t think Maryland to play their A+ game, and get a C- game from Florida to win.
But I do think Maryland clearly has to play well from the jump.
They were slow to start last Thursday against Grand Canyon, and slept-walk too long against Colorado State.
It’s hard to envision MD pulling the upset, if they go through any lengthy scoring droughts.

I don’t think there is any secret of what MD has to do to have a great chance:

• Queen and Reese have to stay on the floor.  Foul trouble for either would be a problem.  Maryland will want to work the ball to them inside, and try and get Florida in foul-trouble of their own.
• The Terps need to get to the line at a good clip, and make their shots at the charity stripe.
• Maryland has to avoid giving the ball away, and just losing possessions.
• The Terps have to rebound.  Limit the second possessions for Florida.
• Gillespie, Rice, Miguel have to knock down their looks. I don’t think they have to play above their heads, but it would be difficult to win if any of them are particularly off.

The bench also needs to give MD something.

Jordan Geronimo has been fantastic down the stretch with his energy and athleticism.

Tafara Gapare has been on a milk carton since getting sick at the end of January.  He was a difference maker off the bench in the 1st half of Big Ten play.
I’d love to see him give MD some useful minutes tomorrow.

Gillespie, Rice, and Miguel are going to rack up the minutes, but DeShawn Harris-Smith, and Jay Young have to give MD something when they touch the floor.
Doesn’t have to be scoring. Can just be good defense, and creating opportunities for others.

Overall, the entire team has to walk on the court tomorrow and be motivated by what is in-front of them.
One of the reasons this team has been fun to watch, is they have done a great job of showing up each night.
Even with the games where they haven’t played well in long-stretches, they’ve found ways to get back into every game and give themselves a chance.
They’ve lost 8 times this year, but the margins in those defeats have been 4,5,6,4,2,3,3,and 1 point.
A couple of bounces MD’s way during the regular season, and the Terps might have been looking like a 2 seed.

Florida expects to advance.
Maryland gets the opportunity to prove they’re Elite.