This year’s offseason for the Baltimore Orioles was the latest demonstration of a theme that has been present since Mike Elias’ first draft: a conservative approach to acquiring starting pitching through free agency and the draft.
The best way to summarize Baltimore’s conservative approach to free agent starting pitchers is that the Elias front office has never signed one to a multi-year deal.
Jordan Lyles got one year entering 2022, as did Kyle Gibson before the 2023 season and this year has also seen Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and Gibson (again) get just one-year deals.
Lyles had the 22nd-biggest deal among free agent starting pitchers that offseason, while Gibson’s first contract ranked 24th for deals entering 2023 and this offseason saw Morton sit in 19th place for deals given to starting pitchers.
It’d be one thing if the Orioles were afraid of massive commitments like Max Fried getting eight years or Jacob deGrom getting five years, but they haven’t even signed anyone from the middle class of free agency. There’s a huge gap between avoiding eight-year mega deals and knowing that the Athletics, a team that will be playing in a literal minor league park, were able to make a multi-year commitment for a free agent pitcher this offseason when the Orioles didn’t.
Signing innings eaters is a low-risk, modestly priced way to shore up your rotation, but a contending team using free agency exclusively for that type of pitcher isn’t exactly the most inspiring way to spend your money.
Baltimore’s conservative approach to pitching also exists in how long they wait to select their first pitcher in the draft.
The Orioles have done an absolutely splendid job at drafting position players under Elias, and I promise I’m not writing this article to argue they should’ve taken a pitcher instead of Adley Rutschman or Gunnar Henderson. However, much like free agency, there’s a reasonable middle ground they’ve largely avoided when it comes to acquiring pitching.
If Elias is still afraid of first-round pitchers after Mark Appel and Brady Aiken then it’s hard to blame him. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the best approach is largely avoiding any pitchers inside the first 125 picks of the draft.
The Elias front office has overseen six drafts so far, and in just two of them did they end up selecting a pitcher earlier than the 125th overall pick.
With the benefit of hindsight, the 2021 draft particularly stands out as one where the Orioles could’ve benefitted from a less conservative approach to acquiring pitching.
The Orioles started strong by selecting Colton Cowser and Connor Norby but then picked a slew of other hitters with underwhelming minor league careers. Reed Trimble, John Rhodes and Donta’ Williams were the next three picks and none of them are in MLB.com’s most recent top 30 Orioles prospects.
Trimble was the 65th overall pick, while Rhodes was #76 and Williams was #106. Those picks were always going to be fliers unlikely to make the majors, but it couldn’t have hurt to at least make those fliers pitchers instead of hitters. The likely best-case scenario for someone like Trimble would’ve been a solid prospect struggling to find MLB at-bats like Kyle Stowers, while the likely best-case scenario for a pitcher taken at #65 is someone who could have a real chance at contributing to the current major league rotation.
In the interest of fairness, the Orioles have been much less conservative in acquiring pitching through trades. Landing Corbin Burnes last year was a wonderful piece of business and deadline addition Zach Eflin will be this year’s Opening Day starter.
However, every trade the Orioles have made to buy pitching has included players they weren’t afraid to get rid of. Players like Joey Ortiz, Stowers and Norby were fine prospects, but none of them had a realistic path to being a starter in Baltimore.
The only problem with making these kind of trades is the Orioles have seemingly run out of this type of prospect. There’s still top-20 prospects like Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo and promising players who haven’t reached AAA like Enrique Bradfield Jr., but no second-tier top-100 prospects stuck in AAA like Ortiz.
The lack of trade chips like Ortiz and a timid approach to adding pitching through the draft and free agency could create a major test for how aggressive the front office is willing to be when making trades going forward. If Morton and Sugano are underwhelming but the Orioles are still in playoff contention, will someone like Mayo remain untouchable?
The main defense for this approach is that investing resources in pitching carries a greater risk than investing in hitters due to the injury-prone nature of pitchers. The Orioles have already seen young arms like Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish deal with injuries, while Gerrit Cole highlights the injury risk for the teams willing to splash the cash in free agency.
However, the problem with this line of thinking is basically every approach to building a rotation comes with its own risks. Morton and Sugano on one-year deals don’t carry the long-term risk of a big contract, but they do come with the short-term risk of missing the playoffs because your rotation is counting on a 41-year-old Morton and a 35-year-old Sugano making his American debut.
The Orioles have thus far avoided the ramifications of their approach to drafting and signing starting pitching through a strong lineup and decent trades, but this year is shaping up to be the biggest test yet for this philosophy. Perhaps everything will turn out just fine, but if not, we’ll have to ask some tough questions about how the Elias front office approaches building a rotation.
BSL Analyst
Rose Katz is a recent graduate of the University of Maryland’s journalism school, where she worked for The Diamondback as the online managing editor and a sports blogger. As a student, she spent almost all of her time on campus in The Diamondback’s newsroom or at Xfinity Center, Ludwig Field and Maryland Stadium. Rose gained intern experience with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN).