College Lacrosse: To Play in May, Prove You Belong 

The NCAA focuses a lot of their attention at building the bracket based on RPI, which uses key metrics like strength of schedule, key wins and key losses to rank teams. RPI generally spits out a comprehensive list of the top teams, but in a sport like lacrosse where teams mostly play 12-16 games, I think the sample size is too small to MOSTLY focus on the one stat. Teams play four or five out of conference games in February and early March which essentially formulates the basis of the RPI in each conference. Once conference play begins it becomes much harder for teams to improve their RPI. In my opinion the RPI isnt a ranking of what have you done lately, it is a ranking of a much larger sample size that takes into account more who you play than what you have been doing lately. 

Ohio State sits at 11-1 and in most polls the #2 team in the country. They have not lost since February, they have wins over Penn State (RPI #3), Notre Dame (RPI #6). Their RPI is 11th and they firmly sit on the bubble. 

Compare that to a Harvard team who is 8-2, #5 in RPI with their best win being Syracuse (#7 RPI). They dont have as bad of a loss as Ohio State’s to Utah but this is where I have an issue. When a team wins 11 in a row after a February 1st loss, you cannot sit and justify the decision they should be on the bubble. I know RPI is generally mathematics based but this is where it goes way over my head.  

Eye test matters. Ohio State is a tournament team in my opinion. As is Cornell (9th in RPI) with games remaining against Harvard, Syracuse, Dartmouth and the Ivy League tournament. They have received the vast majority of votes in every weekly poll for a month. They have the Tewaaraton favorite (by a longshot) and their only loss is to Penn State. The RPI rankings dont make sense to me and I think there needs to be another variable added.  

My updated Bracketology figures in both RPI and current polling to compile what I think are the teams most worthy of postseason lacrosse. 

Early April Top 20 

1. Cornell
2. Ohio State
3. Princeton
4. Syracuse
5. North Carolina
6. Army
7. Maryland
8. Notre Dame
9. Richmond
10. Penn State
11. Harvard
12. Duke
13. Michigan
14. Georgetown
15. Rutgers
16. Fairfield
17. St Joes
18. Boston U
19. Dartmouth
20. Hofstra

 

Bracketology 

1. Cornell (Ivy League) vs Robert Morris (NEC) / Sacred Heart (MAAC)
2. Harvard vs Army (Patriot)
3. North Carolina vs Duke
4. Princeton vs Georgetown (Big East)
5. Syracuse vs Richmond (A10)
6. Ohio State vs Fairfield (CAA)
7. Penn State vs Notre Dame
8. Maryland (Big Ten) vs Bryant (AE) / Jacksonville (ASUN)

 

This time of the year is essential for a lot of teams to grind out conference wins to prove they belong in one or two of the lists above. Like I spoke to earlier, sometimes just winning the games is not going to be enough in the eyes of the selection committee. Sometimes their eyes need to be opened to HOW teams are winning (or losing) games. That can make or break decisions about the select few spots in the bracket. 

At this point, the Ivy League, Big Ten and ACC are viewed as the three top conferences and likely the only conferences that will receive at-large bids in the tournament. You can make an argument for the Patriot League (Army and Boston) and a big maybe for the A10 (Richmond and St Joes). Both Boston and St Joes could steal the automatic qualifier which puts the committee in a tough spot with this year’s bubble teams like Army, Richmond, Duke, Notre Dame, Michigan. Obviously a lot can change between now and early May. Teams WILL have out of conference opportunities to increase their RPI and therefore also their image in the eyes of the committee. 

Take for example Boston hosting Duke this past weekend. Wonderful opportunity for the Patriot League to have their status bumped up. Unfortunately Duke controlled this game after it was tied 2-2 early. Their defense didnt give Boston anything easy and their offense went on a few multi goal runs to break the game open including outscoring Boston 8-2 in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. 13 different players registered a point for the Blue Devils. ACC teams like Duke consistently have more depth and we saw that first hand on Saturday. 

Plenty of opportunities still exist for in conference RPI boosts and we saw a couple this past weekend. Since losing two straight in February, Syracuse has won six straight and none more impressive than their 14-9 win over Notre Dame. This score does not show the whole picture as it was Cuse who dominated this game. After the Irish scored three goals in 4 minutes to begin the game, Syracuse held ND scoreless for the next 40 minutes while going on an 8-0 run. They played bully ball in the dome and Notre Dame was not ready for it.  

Rutgers is in the rankings for the first time this season after handing Maryland their second Big Ten loss. The Terps are still considered a lock after their dominant out of conference performance, but these two losses have to be concerning for Maryland fans. It will not get easier for Maryland as they finish the season with Ohio State and then a rivalry game vs Hopkins. 

The Big Ten is a jumbled up mess. If I were to power rank them it would be Ohio St, Maryland, Penn St, Michigan, Rutgers, Hopkins. Ohio State moved to 3-0 in the conference after their win in Baltimore against a Hopkins team whos wheels are running off the track. Penn State got their first conference win in Ann Arbor via a second half comeback and some massive saves late from Jack Fracyon. 

Cornell survived a first half upset bid from Brown. CJ Kirst helped them pull away and inched closer to the all-time NCAA goals record. With Yale’s win and Dartmouth’s loss, their game this coming weekend will be for the fourth Ivy League tournament spot. You never know how sneaky this Yale team could be if they somehow find themselves alive in a month. House money. 

North Carolina avoided a trap game with their pumping of Virginia. The Tar Heels are a final four caliber team. 

Loyola gets one line for their one win. They beat Bucknell in OT for their first win of the season. 

One under the radar conference to look out for down the stretch is the CAA. Hofstra, Fairfield and Towson are all capable of beating each other. 

Upcoming Games to Look For 

Fairfield-Delaware this weekend could be closer than anticipated as Delaware was receiving some buzz during the preseason. Wouldnt surprise me if the Blue Hens made a run in the CAA tournament as well but we will see how they hang with the top team this weekend. 

Army Navy because its Army Navy. Navy released their new uniforms for this weekend’s matchup. Love that they do this stuff for lacrosse too. 

https://x.com/navymlax/status/1909381166479614055?s=46 

Mentioned this one earlier, but Yale and Dartmouth are playing for the #4 seed in Ivy Tournament. Winner needs to handle business rest of the way obviously but to make a run into May you need to win now. Loser leaves town game. 

Penn St and Hopkins both need to win some Big Ten games. Hopkins is battling for their postseason life and after a couple of losses Penn State has gotten back on track.  

Ohio State/Maryland could be a potential quarterfinal or Final Four game. The Ohio St offense has been so lethal the past few weeks. They dont just have one guy, multiple scorers have emerged. Curious to see how slow Maryland tries to play this game. Seems to be the theme with Tillman coached teams lately. 

Upstate New York’s finest, two of the hottest teams in the country in an April out of conference game. Cuse played bully ball in the dome last week but their toughest task is CJ Kirst. If they can slow him down can they also slow down Long and Goldstein. If Cuse takes down Notre Dame and Cornell in back to back weeks they might vault into the #1 spot. 

Another big weekend of college lacrosse on tap. Enjoy it, only a couple months left.