The State Of The Orioles Rotation

24 runs. The most runs the Orioles have given up in a game since their 30-3 debacle against the Texas Rangers back in 2007, and tied for the 3rd most the franchise has ever given up in a game. The starting pitcher for the game, none other than the Orioles’ big offseason pitching acquisition, 41 year-old Charlie Morton, now 0-5 with a 10.89 ERA. 

The Morton Problem 

While it’s obvious how rough Morton has looked just by watching him, let’s look at some numbers from his season so far (min. 20 IP, via FanGraphs): 

• Morton’s 10.89 ERA is the worst in baseball—more than three full runs worse than the second-worst mark (Tanner Houck, 7.66).
   

• His -0.3 fWAR is the second-worst in MLB.
   

• His -2.90 -WPA (Loss Advancement) is the worst in baseball. This essentially tells us the number of losses a player’s negative plays solely are responsible for.
   

• His 53.5% HardHit% is the second-worst in baseball. 

Some additional context helps explain why Morton has been so poor this season. Morton’s Location+, a FanGraphs metric that measures a pitcher’s command by comparing where a pitch should be thrown versus where it’s actually thrown, sits at 88, second-worst in baseball. His Stuff+, which measures pitch quality—velocity, spin, movement, etc.—is also below league average at 95.  

In short, Morton’s command has been terrible, and his raw stuff isn’t good enough to make up for it. The eye test agrees. 

The question of how much longer the Orioles can continue putting him out there needs to be asked, as once again (similar to last year’s Craig Kimbrel experiment) the Orioles are at odds with what to do when a “washed up” player is given an offseason contract far richer than anything they should have received. 

 Enough on Morton.  

Rotation Rundown 

Let’s take a look at how the rest of the Orioles starting rotation has performed so far.  

Tomoyuki Sugano 

Sugano has been the most consistent of the currently healthy Orioles starters, pitching to a 3.43 ERA and leading the staff with 21 IP. Despite this, I have my concerns with Sugano going forward.  

Sugano’s 9.2% Strike-Out rate is second-worst in the MLB and his xERA (Expected ERA) of 6.40 is actually worse than Morton’s (5.71). What does this mean? Sugano hasn’t been fooling batters and has maybe gotten a little lucky to begin the season.  

While I don’t want to fully discredit his solid start to the season and I do expect him to continue to adjust to MLB hitters, I would ultimately expect some slight regression from his current ERA. I think as O’s fans we would all be very happy if Sugano can maintain an ERA in the mid to high 3s as the season goes on.  

Dean Kremer 

To start 2025, Dean Kremer has essentially done what Dean Kremer has always done, have flashes of greatness (his most recent start against Cleveland) and have clunkers (his prior start where he surrendered 6 runs in 4.2 IP). I do expect Kremer to settle in as he gets more starts under his belt. Unlike Sugano, Kremer’s xERA of 4.61 suggests he’s actually pitchered better than his 6.41 ERA indicates.  

By the end of the season, assuming he stays healthy (a big assumption for this current Orioles roster), I expect Kremer to finish with somewhere around 10 wins and an ERA in the low 4s – essentially filling the role of a mid-to-back-end starting pitcher. Kremer is a pitcher that the Orioles desperately need some consistency out of as we wait for the big names to come back. 

Cade Povich 

I really want Cade Povich to figure it out. I’ve got a soft spot for him, but the reality is he has really struggled so far in the majors. While his first three starts showed promise (8 K vs. BOS, 2 or fewer walks each start), things unraveled in his last outing: 5 walks, 3 HRs, and out before finishing the 4th in front of a sold-out Friday night crowd at OPACY. 

While I do have some optimism for Povich given his age and moments of brilliance, he is also a huge unknown at a time where the Orioles so desperately need some consistency in their pitching staff.  

Injury Woes 

While I hate to blame the way this season has started on injuries, it needs to be said: 

 

• Grayson Rodriguez (IL15) – Elbow & Shoulder: Rodriguez’s timetable is currently totally up in the air as the Orioles seek second opinions on recent MRI results. While the Orioles ‘remain optimistic’ that Rodriguez will pitch sometime in 2025, we don’t have much to go off of right now.
   

• Zach Eflin (IL15) – Lat Strain: Reports are that Eflin is making good progress in his recovery from a lat strain suffered earlier in April. The next step for Eflin will be to throw a bullpen session hopefully in the next few days, and from there determine his timetable for return. It still remains to be seen whether Eflin will need a rehab assignment or not once cleared to resume pitching.  

 

• Kyle Bradish (IL60) – UCL: Following Tommy John surgery in June 2024, Bradish is expected to return sometime in the second half of the 2025 season at the earliest.  

 

• Tyler Wells (IL60) – UCL:  Following reconstructive elbow surgery in June 2024, the Orioles are hoping Wells can return around the All-Star Break.  

 

• Albert Suarez (IL60) – Shoulder: Suarez’ shoulder injury is expected to keep him out for months, with no clear timetable for a return. 

 

It isn’t lost on me, or on any Oriole fan for that matter, that the 5 pitchers above could quite literally comprise the Orioles full starting rotation when healthy (with the exception of maybe Suarez, although he pitched well in the role last year).  

Front Office Frustrations 

A rotation starting with Rodriguez, Eflin and Bradish followed by some starter/long-reliever combination of Wells, Sugano, Kremer, and Suarez is almost certainly a Top 10 pitching staff in the MLB, even with the glaring absence of Corbin Burnes. However, given the injury histories of many of these pitchers along with their question marks going into the season, us Orioles fans can do nothing but scratch our heads at the moves Elias made (and didn’t make) in the offseason.  

With a great young core of players currently on extremely team-favorable contracts, (2025 Salaries: Jackson Holliday: $765K, Gunnar Henderson: $782K, Jordan Westburg: $772K, Colton Cowser: $775K, Yennier Cano: $773K etc.) this offseason was the time to spend up on some difference-making pitchers, because if not now, when? 

Final Thoughts 

It’s rough to think that all those years of losing and stockpiling talent (and drafting well) to create an incredibly strong farm system which then turned into 100+ and 90+ win seasons the past 2 years would all culminate to what we’re seeing now.  

Admittedly, the season is young and we are prone to overreacting and recency bias, but if the Orioles continue posting a league-worst ERA it is difficult to envision any real lasting improvement. While continuing to wait for our key pitchers to get healthy, I’m sure I will not be the only one wondering if Orioles ownership and Mike Elias have officially squandered their chance to create something truly special in Baltimore.