April Has Been A Disaster; 135 Games Left After Today

The Baltimore Orioles lost both games in a double-header yesterday in Detroit, meaning that win or lose today; the O’s are 1-6-2 in their first 9 series of 2025.

Woof.

There are 135 games left (83%) in the Orioles season after today, starting with a 3 game set to end April at home beginning tomorrow vs. the Yankees.

I believe in the Orioles positional talent.
I believe the rotation can stabilize.
As such, I’m still of the opinion that t he O’s can turn their season around and reach the postseason.

But to paraphrase Yogi Berra, “It’s getting late early out there.” 

The O’s are 6 games under .500 entering today.
They are 5 games back of the Yankees in the AL East.
They’ve been outscored by 32 runs.

I don’t think the O’s are dead and buried, but they are digging a significant hole.

This start to the season is forcing the issue with Manager Brandon Hyde.
I said before the year began, that I thought he had until Memorial Day regardless, even if they started slow. I also expected him to get through the year.

At this point, I’m not sure he makes it to May.
To be clear, I’m definitely not placing the majority of blame on Hyde.
I’m mostly indifferent with him, but if someone is going to take the fall, it’s going to be him.

From what we see, I don’t love a lot of Hyde’s decision making; but I also don’t think tactical choices from a ML Manager mean much in 2025.
Where I think a Manager still has influence in today’s game is with communication (to the Players, the Press, the Front Office), and holding players accountable.

We see Hyde’s comments to the Press, but I won’t presume to know how effective he is with communication to the Players and Front Office.
As far as holding players accountable?
Again, that’s a matter which is probably unfair for me to judge that from my couch.
I will say that the O’s make a lot of unforced errors (baserunning, mental lapses, etc).
Most of the blame there should go to the players themselves, but there has been a prevalence of sloppy play from this roster dating to last June.
The O’s often seem unprepared.
Hyde has to take some blame there.

My prevailing opinion with ML Managers is that Players perform or they don’t.
If they do, Managers get too much credit.
If they don’t, Managers get too much blame.

If the O’s Front Office feels Hyde’s falling short in preparation, and that can be improved on – great.
I feel that letting Hyde go now, would largely just be about giving everyone a restart.

While Hyde might be the one who gets the ax, the biggest culprit of the Orioles poor start is GM Mike Elias.

I’ve never thought Elias was a magician.
I’ve liked him because he has systematically worked a plan, and that’s largely been absent in my time following the Orioles.

I think he’s built a team that can have a sustained run of annual contention.
I expect this group to annually contend.

Elias wants to keep as much of his controlled talent as possible and fill out the roster with short term deals.

I think the idea is that keeps the window open, and gives you more bites at the apple vs. going in on any one particular year.
Generally I support that mindset, because I think when you get to the postseason, it’s largely short-sample-size (SSS) and a level of randomness.
But of course you have to get to the postseason first to have the opportunity to see if things go right for you in those SSS’s.

The decisions Elias made this past Winter don’t look good.
It looks like a poor allocation of available resources.

My opinion is that Elias is smart enough to adjust and again,  I still think this ’25 team will recover.
I remain a big fan of Elias, but if you are creating a pie chart and allotting percentage’s blame for this start – Elias gets the largest slice.
That doesn’t make me want to see him gone though.
But as someone that is largely ambivalent on Hyde, and is a fan of Elias – I do think it has to be said that even if Hyde takes the immediate fall, what we’ve seen this first Month largely falls on Elias.

As I’ve said a few times though here, I still think the O’s can turn this year around.

Here are a few reasons why:

1) The O’s are 18th in runs scored, and 15th in slugging % coming in to today. The positional talent is strong. Cedric Mullins has had a strong start. Ryan O’Hearn too. Ramon Urias has produced in the opportunities he has received. Outside of them, most everyone else is underachieving. Mullins will come back to Earth, but nearly everyone else should be expected to do more. I think this should be an offense which finishes Top 5 in runs.

2) At this point I need to see Grayson Rodriguez active and healthy (and then stay active and healthy for a prolonged stretch) before buying in there. But when he was sent for a 2nd opinion on his shoulder, I was expecting the next story to be that he was done for the year. The fact that the O’s are currently believing he’s on track to begin a throwing program in a few weeks beats the alternative. If he can join the O’s by mid-June, and stay available; that’s going to provide a lift.

2a) Zach Eflin is getting closer to returning. Getting Rodriguez back at this point feels more like hope vs. something you expect.  Eflin is returning.

3) Between Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich, and Brandon Young; I feel like the O’s should be able to find reliable starts from two of them. If you are getting competitive outings with regularity from two of them – with Eflin – the rotation can stabilize. In this sense, stabilize doesn’t mean ‘good’, it means going from complete dumpster fire to viable.

4) I don’t like any plan that relies on Kyle Bradish returning to the rotation, and immediately picking up where he left off; but the updates we’ve seen do seem promising. He was Cy Young caliber in ’23. I’m not expecting to see that version of Bradish if he becomes available this year. But if he’s starting games in August, he doesn’t have to be at that previous level to help.

5) If the O’s are within striking distance of a Wild Card at the deadline, I’d expect that Elias will find a Eflin level starter to trade for. Eflin, trade acquisition, hopefully Rodriguez as the top 3 starters, with Gibson / Kremer / Sugano / Povich / Young holding up spots 4-5, with Bradish possibly also returning would give the O’s a chance to finish strong.

6) Colton Cowser should be back to begin June. That will help the OF defense, and gives the lineup a boost.

7) Felix Bautista is looking more like his ’23 self each time out.  Yennier Cano has been strong.  Andrew Kittredge is getting closer to returning, and he’ll help the pen.

The O’s were a .500 team over their last 60 games in 2024.
This April has been a brutal watch, which may ultimately cost Hyde his job.
I believe Elias is capable of delivering the O’s their 4th World Championship, but his off-season is the primary reason for the O’s rough start to ’25.
There is still time for the O’s to turn this ship around, but it’s not going to be easy.
If the O’s lose today and fall to 10-17, they’d likely need to go 78-57 the rest of the way to be in a good position to grab one of the Wild Cards.
Not impossible, but that’s a .578 pace for the last 135 games.
That certainly feels daunting based on what we’ve seen so far.

Taking 2 of 3 from New York would be a start.