If I told you before the season the Baltimore Orioles would be 11-17 because of their starting pitching, I doubt you’d be surprised.
However, if I told you the Orioles would also be 11-17 due to underwhelming starts from several of their younger hitters, I’d imagine that’d be a bit more shocking to learn.
While veterans like Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn have enjoyed a productive April, the same can’t be said for other players with less experience.
So, what have the younger players been doing right and wrong so far this year? Let’s find some good news and bad news for the offensive approaches of the Orioles’ younger players.
Jackson Holliday
Good news: An excellent chase rate
While Jackson Holliday’s BB% is slightly below-average at the 45th percentile, it’s not for a lack of trying. Holliday’s chase rate is in the 91st percentile, demonstrating an excellent ability to understand the strike zone. Holliday has swung at just 19.2 percent of his pitches outside the zone, a figure that ranks second on the Orioles and 16th in baseball among batters with at least 75 plate appearances.
Bad news: The batted-ball data isn’t blowing anyone away
Holliday having a good grasp of the zone is an encouraging sign, but it’d go much further if he had better numbers when he does decide to swing. Holliday’s average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are all sitting below the 50th percentile. His hard-hit percentage is in the 44th percentile and his exit velocity is in the 42nd percentile, so it’s still possible that a couple scorched line drives could improve those figures in the small sample of April.
Gunnar Henderson
Good news: The exit velocity and hard-hit rate are some of the best in baseball
Gunnar Henderson has been absolutely smoking the ball to start this year. He has a 95.6 MPH average exit velocity and a 57.9 percent hard-hit rate that are both better figures than what he provided during last year’s excellent season. His average exit velocity is in the 99th percentile, while his hard-hit rate is in the 95th percentile. Henderson only trails Oneil Cruz for average exit velocity among those with at least 75 PAs.
Bad news: The walks are down, the strikeouts are up
Hitting the ball hard is never a bad thing but it does lose some of its impact if you’re below the 20th percentile for both your walk rate and strikeout rate. Henderson’s strikeout rate in prior seasons never resembled prime Tony Gywnn, but this season has still been the highest K% of his career at 28.9 percent. Meanwhile, the dropoff in walks is far more concerning. Last year Henderson had a BB% of 10.8 percent that ranked in the 80th percentile and this year that figure has dipped down to 5.6 percent, placing him in the 21st percentile.
Adley Rutschman
Good news: He’s waiting for his pitch and consistently making contact when he sees it
Adley Rutschman is currently enjoying the best chase rate of his career, swinging at only 18.5 percent of pitches outside the zone, good for a 96th percentile chase rate. His strong eye is paired with an excellent ability to avoid swinging-and-missing, with a whiff rate that’s in the 94th percentile. Laying off balls and putting strikes in play is always going to be a one-two punch you want to see in a hitter and Rutschman has been doing an excellent job at both of those.
Bad news: The hard-hit rate could use some work
Quite frankly, Rutschman’s Baseball Savant page has the fewest concerns of the Orioles’ hitting core. His expected batting average and expected slugging percentage both say he’s had some bad luck with getting well-hit balls to turn into hits, and he seems due to get some breaks sooner or later. With that being said, Rutschman’s hard-hit rate is still in the 25th percentile. Hard-hit rate has always been a weak spot for Rutschman’s advanced stats, with the figure never ranking higher than the 35th percentile in his career.
Heston Kjerstad
Good news: He’s regularly elevating the ball
When Heston Kjerstad puts the ball in play, there’s an awfully good chance it’ll be in the air. His groundball percentage is 35.4 percent, a figure that ranks in the top 50 among those with at least 75 PAs this year. Kjerstad’s GB% is also second on the Orioles, trailing only Cedric Mullins. Kjerstad’s ability to regular keep the ball in the air has led to an 84th percentile barrel rate.
Bad news: He’s chasing and whiffing far too much
Kjerstad’s combination of swinging at balls and swinging-and-missing makes it awfully hard for him to put together good at-bats. Kjerstad’s chase rate is in the 12th percentile, while his whiff rate is slightly improved in the 16th percentile. Unsurprisingly, Kjerstad’s chase rate has led to a walk rate that ranks 216th out of 217 batters with at least 75 PAs.
BSL Analyst
Rose Katz is a recent graduate of the University of Maryland’s journalism school, where she worked for The Diamondback as the online managing editor and a sports blogger. As a student, she spent almost all of her time on campus in The Diamondback’s newsroom or at Xfinity Center, Ludwig Field and Maryland Stadium. Rose gained intern experience with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN).