Upsets in the First Round, Quarterfinal Preview

Eight teams moved on into the quarterfinals after this past weekend’s games. In the first round last year, there were zero unseeded teams that made it to the quarterfinals. All eight home and seeded teams won. This year, however, we had three teams pull off an upset and begin there “Cinderella” run to the Final Four. 

First I’d like to quickly revisit my predictions from last week. My picks went 8-0 in the first round with a few of the score predictions missing by just a few goals.  

Cornell 15, Albany 6. My pick 17-8 

The nightcap on Sunday was a two goal game at halftime before seeing Cornell’s offense break out and run away from the Dane Train in the second half. CJ Kirst continued his outstanding season, scoring six goals and showing a multitude of different ways he can score. Albany is a team to look for next spring as their top six offensive weapons will return next season.  

Richmond 13, UNC 10. My pick 11-9 

The one outlier of the weekend in terms of the faceoff x was this game. Richmond lost the battle at the faceoff x (38%) but went on to win the game. They trailed 4-0 early and looked lifeless. A switch flipped, they found their legs and they rattled off 11 second half goals to run away from UNC. The biggest thing that stuck out to me was that Richmond constantly won individual matchups either forcing an early slide or an open dodge. They got UNC’s defense moving way too much. Owen Duffy and Dom Pietramala combined for 6 goals and 2 assists. The rest of the offense scored 4 goals and 4 assists. That needs to change next year for UNC. 

Richmond will play Cornell in the quarterfinals this weekend in Hempstead, NY. The two played a one goal game back in March.  

 Penn St 13, Colgate 11. My pick 14-13 

This was my “sneaky close game” and boy did it deliver. Tie game at halftime and late in the fourth quarter Colgate took a 1 goal lead. That goal was the last shot for them in the game. Penn St responded with three in a row to win by two. I mentioned earlier that face-offs were a huge factor in a lot of wins this past weekend. Reid Gillis won 21-28 face-offs to keep this game in a settled slow pace (like Penn St wants) instead of the run and gun style (like Colgate wanted). The Big Ten wears teams down. 

Notre Dame 15, Ohio St 6. My pick 10-9 

Notre Dame won 18 out of 24 face-offs with Will Lynch dominating to keep the ball on the ND offensive end. The two time defending champs showed again that they know how to win in May. 12 different players recorded a point and Notre Dame controlled the clock and pace of play. They stole a few goals from the tenacious ride. There were a few stretches of 10+ minutes without an Ohio St shot on goal.  

The Irish opened as a 3.5 goal favorite over Penn St this coming weekend in Annapolis. 

Princeton 22, Towson 12. My pick 14-8 

An absolute runaway train in the Princeton offense constantly found open looks on Saturday afternoon against Towson. They put up 20 goals through three quarters. Another possession battle was won by Princeton and Andrew McMeekin winning 20-32 face-offs. Princeton and Towson were tied early in the second quarter but the sharpshooters combined with faceoff wins sent Princeton on a four goal run and the runaway train never looked back. 

Syracuse 13, Harvard 12. My pick 16-12 

Easily the most exciting game of the weekend was Sunday evening in the Carrier Dome. The gods of upstate New York shined their light on the Carrier dome during an unprecedented comeback in the second half and fourth quarter that saw Syracuse erase a five goal deficit in one minute and 39 seconds. Harvard did what they needed to do to beat Syracuse – AGAIN – in the dome, but they choked the final six or seven minutes away. Stop me if you’ve heard this before. The faceoff x was a deciding factor in this game. John Mullen won 24-28 for Syracuse which was expected. Syracuse’s depth is evident with 10 different goal scorers. Owen Hiltz was the hero on Sunday, scoring the game winner in OT. I wonder if their fourth quarter stretch is them “getting hot” for a deep run. Princeton will be no easy task. 

Syracuse will take on the Tigers at Hofstra on Saturday afternoon. 

Georgetown 16, Duke 12. My pick 15-13 

Duke struggled down the stretch this season. Georgetown did not. The writing was on the wall before this game even started for me. The freshman faceoff man for Georgetown Ross Prince won 20-30 and kept the ball in the sticks of the team that played like the aggressor all game. Aidan Carroll and Fulton Bayman combined for 10 goals. Their breakout seasons have been fun to watch. This team is also capable of winning more than just one game. 

Maryland 13, Air Force 5. My pick 13-7 

Maryland handled their business as the #2 seed to set up their matchup in Annapolis with Georgetown. I don’t think any team this season could comeback against Maryland after trailing 12-2 after three quarters. It was a complete effort from the Terps who had their starters resting mid-way through the fourth quarter. Air Force tried a zone early on which was broken with two quick goals from Kelly (2g) and Spanos (6g). Terps continue to win in May.  

QUARTERFINAL PREVIEW 

To me all four of these games are dream matchups for the lacrosse fan. Arguments can be made for both sides on all four games. I see a couple of spreads that say 3.5 at the moment and I am inclined to think none of these games finishes more than a two goal win. The storylines are endless.  

Can CJ Kirst lead his team to championship weekend in pursuit of the Tewaaraton and National Championship in the same season? 

Will Notre Dame make it back to vie for a three-peat?  

Georgetown could make their first Final Four since 1999. 

Syracuse’s championship drought sits at 15 years. Princeton’s sits at 23. 

#1 Cornell vs Richmond – Saturday, 12pm 

Back in early March, Richmond hosted the Big Red and held a two goal lead to start the fourth quarter. Cornell ended up winning the game but if it tells you anything, let it tell you that Richmond is talented enough to beat Cornell and make the Final Four. They have the talent to keep up with the Big Red offensively. The athleticism of their midfield to win one on one matchups allows their finishers to get open off the slide and Lucas Littlejohn finds space like no other. My concern on Richmond’s side is an obvious one: stopping (or at least slowing down) CJ Kirst. Mitchell Dunham won the A-10 defensive player of the year. He held Kirst to 3g, 1a in March. Can he do it again? AND can the rest of the defense play well enough to hold the Cornell supporting cast at ease? I think that is the big Key for Richmond in this one. Zach Vigue is a goalie that can get hot. The formula is no big days. 12 goals max is the goal for the Spider defense. Let’s see if they can execute. In the end I think this will be closer than expected but Richmond is truly running into a buzz saw of an offense in Cornell. Cornell 14, Richmond 12. 

#3 Princeton vs #6 Syracuse – Saturday, 2:30pm 

This game is tough for me to predict because the strength of both teams lies on the offensive end. The depth of both teams offensively combined with getting hot at the right time doesn’t give me an edge either way. 22 goals for Princeton in the first round. 10 second half goals for Syracuse to mount a comeback in the first round. Croddick and McCool are both streaky goalies and I don’t see an edge here. Defensively Billy Dwan and Colin Mulshine are lock down but others show holes. My edge lies in the faceoff unit and John Mullen. I don’t think he will go 70% or even 65% but a slight edge in possessions could give Cuse the upper hand in a game that I think will be tightly contested. Possessions, transition opportunities, converting on man up and ground balls will all be huge. All should be points of emphasis this week during practice. I am going to hope for a fast paced game with lots of goals and a tightly contested ending. Keeping my prediction from last week. Syracuse 15, Princeton 14. 

#5 Penn State vs Notre Dame – Sunday, 12pm 

Kevin Corrigan and Notre Dame are not a group to mess with when May rolls around. Their beat down of Ohio State was utterly impressive. They seem to save some or a lot of juice for these games. Penn State struggled with a Colgate team who likes to run and gun somewhat like the Irish. No, this is not a cake walk for the Irish back to the Final Four but I would be very surprised to see Penn State pull the upset. This is one of the 3.5 goal spread games. Notre Dame has the grit and the fuel to win in May. Penn State’s depth concerns me on the offensive end. Matt Traynor and Hunter Aquino will have matchups with two First-Team All-Americans in Shawn Lyght and Ben Ramsey. If Notre Dame can continue to get productive shifts from their offensive midfielders than Chris Kavanagh and Jake Taylor will cash in on the off balance and off schedule defense. Penn State will not be the first team in three years to beat Notre Dame. Notre Dame 14, Penn State 10 

#2 Maryland vs Georgetown – Sunday, 2:30pm 

I’ve fallen in love with the Georgetown team that has emerged since their three goal performance against Denver. They play fast, they score, they defend well and they are the hottest team in the country. John Tillman will have a game plan to make this a boring game. That’s what Maryland does. To win, Georgetown needs to control the pace and make the Terps play at a blistering fast pace, similar to what they did against Duke. A tall task in it of itself, but to do it in May is unheard of. Georgetown’s freshman faceoff man Ross Prince should find some success against a Maryland unit who has been inconsistent. If the Hoyas let Maryland get stops and turn it into transition opportunities, it might be a long day. Keep it a close game and they will be in it. Maryland will look to play transition and if nothing is there they’ll take their foot off the gas to kill clock and tire out the Georgetown defense until they find the best look. Ty Banks needs to be great. Anderson Moore needs to make saves. I think Georgetown pulls the upset. I don’t trust the Maryland offense enough after Erksa and his matchup with Ty Banks is one of the toughest in the country. Georgetown 13, Maryland 11. 

So the quarterfinals are set. 2 Ivies, 2 Big Ten, 2 ACC, A-10 Champ and Big East Champ will travel to Hempstead, NY and Annapolis, MD to punch their ticket to Boston, MA and the Final Four.