The Baltimore Orioles are currently seven games out of a playoff spot. While such a deficit isn’t completely insurmountable, it is still the kind of deficit that makes it pretty clear that they should be sellers at this year’s trade deadline.
So, let’s explore some of the big questions about this year’s deadline for the Orioles.
Who wants Ryan O’Hearn?
There’s a very good chance O’Hearn will be one of the best hitters moved this deadline, so it seems fair to say that virtually every contending team will take an interest in him.
However if we want to really be specific, let’s look at some contenders who haven’t gotten much offense from their first basemen and/or their designated hitters.
The first candidate for O’Hearn would be the Houston Astros. The current leaders of the American League West have gotten a .646 OPS from their first basemen, while their designated hitters have provided a similarly weak .621 OPS.
Houston has dealt with both an underwhelming season from Christian Walker and an injury to Yordan Alvarez, creating the perfect storm to find themselves needing someone like O’Hearn.
Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres could desperately use an upgrade at DH.
The DH spot in San Diego’s lineup has produced an OPS of just .542, a figure that quite remarkably isn’t even the worst OPS for DHs in baseball.
While Houston and San Diego jump out to me as the two contenders who could most desperately use O’Hearn, an .853 OPS would be a welcome addition to any lineup in the majors.
Who wants Cedric Mullins?
After ending April with a .927 OPS, Mullins has significantly cooled down, posting a .547 OPS since May 1.
While Mullins’ underwhelming May and June might have reduced some of his trade value, it still seems pretty likely he’ll be a desirable target at the deadline.
The first potential suitor for Mullins comes from the team with the league’s worst offense from their center fielders: the Cleveland Guardians.
Cleveland’s CFs have had a .516 OPS this year, a figure that is more than 150 points lower than the league average at the position.
The Guardians currently sit at 40-42 and are 2.5 games out of a playoff spot, so it’s hardly a guarantee they’ll be buyers.
If Cleveland decides against going shopping for a center fielder, then Mullins might find himself taking a short road trip to New York or Philadelphia.
The Mets and Phillies are both comfortably in playoff spots right now and also find themselves with underwhelming situations in center.
The Mets rank 20th in OPS from their CFs, while the Phillies sit in 23rd place for their production in center.
Who else is selling, besides the obvious candidates?
I can tell you right now with a very high degree of confidence that teams like the Colorado Rockies, Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates and the Athletics will be sellers at the deadline.
However, there’s also plenty of teams who aren’t obvious sellers today, but could become ones as we approach the end of July.
The aforementioned Guardians, as well as five other teams, find themselves within three games of .500, a no man’s land that could make them buyers or sellers depending on how July plays out.
The Diamondbacks particularly feel like a team worth monitoring to see if they end up being sellers. If Arizona is ready to punt on this season, Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez on the market could potentially drive down price for Ryan O’Hearn.
The Diamondbacks also seem like the most likely seller among these six teams because they find themselves five games out of a playoff spot, while none of the AL teams are more than three games out.
Is anyone with control for next year moving?
The Orioles trading players like Mullins, O’Hearn, Zach Eflin or Tomoyuki Sugano should be entirely uncontroversial, as all of them will become free agents after this season.
However, the Orioles potentially moving someone still under team control for at least 2026 is when things could get interesting.
For example, 2.5 years of control for Felix Bautista could be an enticing trade chip to many teams and could bring back a better return than half a season of someone like O’Hearn. However, that kind of move would still mean the Orioles would need to find a new closer for 2026 and 2027. It’s also hardly a guarantee that Bautista’s hypothetical return would include players ready to make a meaningful impact on the 2026 and 2027 teams.
If the Orioles stick to trading rentals, it’d signal that the front office views this season as an unfortunate fluke that can be fixed next year. However, moving anyone with control for next year’s team would indicate the front office believes this roster needs a bigger reset and the implications that come with that.
BSL Analyst
Rose Katz is a recent graduate of the University of Maryland’s journalism school, where she worked for The Diamondback as the online managing editor and a sports blogger. As a student, she spent almost all of her time on campus in The Diamondback’s newsroom or at Xfinity Center, Ludwig Field and Maryland Stadium. Rose gained intern experience with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN).