College Football 2025 – Week 1 Overview

Preseason prognostications are fun, but then the lights turn on and games get played.

And once games are live, opinions can be changed quickly.

Week 1 of the 2025 College Football Season is now in the books*; and this long weekend was just the latest reminder of why you play the games.

*Bill Belichick and North Carolina does host TCU tonight.

All percentages mentioned below, come from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 1 Quick Hits

South Florida 34 Boise State 7 – The Broncos spent all Summer as the presumptive Group of 5 favorite. Travelling across the country to face the Bulls in Tampa, Boise State got out to a 7-0 lead after the 1st Quarter, but never scored again. Boise had a prolific rushing attack lats year with Ashton Jeanty. Against USF? Just 122 yards on the ground over 38 carries. Notre Dame is the only ranked team on Boise’s schedule. If the Broncos lose in South Bend, but win out otherwise; will that be enough for them to reach the playoff? The non-competitiveness of this loss will be hard for people to forget. USF has in-state trips to Florida, and Miami the next two weeks. If the Bulls are competitive in those games, maybe you’ve got a team that will surprisingly push Tulane, Navy, Memphis, UTSA, and Army for the AAC title.

Nebraska 20 Cincinnati 17 – The Huskers won this neutral site (Kansas City) game vs. the Bearcats. While the location was neutral, the crowd was not – as followers of Nebraska dominated the stands. This is year 3 for Nebraska Head Coach Matt Rhule, and that fanbase is clamoring for a returning to relevance. In Rhule’s 3rd seasons at Temple, and Baylor he had 10 and 11 seasons. While they got the win, Nebraska rushed for just 3.2 yards per carry, and allowed 7 ypc on defense. Their defense had zero sacks.  QB Dylan Raiola did have five different WR’s catch at-least 5 balls though.

Auburn 38 Baylor 24 – The SEC gets a road W in Big 12 country. Neither team had a turnover.  Baylor had 483 yards (419 in the air, 64 on the ground). Auburn had 416 yards ( 308 on the ground, 108 passing).  The Tigers ground and pound allowed Auburn to hold the ball for 33 minutes. Auburn QB Jackson Arnold didn’t do much throwing the ball, but he did run for 137 yards, and 2 scores over 16 carries. The Tigers defense had 4 sacks. Auburn has expected wins the next two weeks (Ball State, South Alabama) before beginning a three game stretch ( @ Oklahoma, @ Texas A&M, vs. Georgia ) vs. ranked teams. Baylor trips to SMU on Saturday, where the Bears are given a 33% chance of pulling the road upset.

Ohio State 14 Texas 7 –  A defensive struggle between Preseason #1 and #3.  Both teams are expected to be in the CFP.  Texas losing at Ohio State certainly doesn’t eliminate them. The Buckeyes getting the win over the Longhorns will certainly be a nugget for their resume. Arch Manning didn’t light the world on fire, and was largely inaccurate. Texas did make a late rally, and he had a strong throw to the outside which was pretty. Even on the Texas’ last play, he showed something getting the ball off despite heavy pressure. Manning had 90 attempts as a Freshman. Didn’t have any in game like this. I think you can logically expect him to grow as the year progresses. Texas’ run defense was strong, as they held OSU to 89 yards on 31 attempts. OSU had 3 ranked teams (Illinois, Penn State, Michigan) left on their schedule. Right now they’re a 81.6% favorite to win at Illinois on Oct. 11th. They’re a 61.2% favorite at home vs. Penn State on Nov. 1st, and they’re a 70.9% favorite to win at Michigan on Nov. 29th. Hard to imagine a scenario where Ohio State doesn’t make the playoff. They’ll be #1 in the new polls.

LSU 17 Clemson 10 – The SEC Tigers beat the ACC Tigers at Clemson’s Death Valley. Clemson had been receiving a lot of hype all Summer with Dabo Sweeney helping leading that charge. Pretty disappointing performance for them. Sorry, I’m going to be harder on Senior Cade Klubnik not getting it done at home vs. a quality team, vs. a inexperienced Sophomore not getting it done at Ohio State.  Klubnik was 19 of 38 for just 230 yards, and a pick. To be fair to him, he got no help from the running game as Clemson was held to 32 yards on 19 attempts!  LSU didn’t have a great night running against Clemson’s strong D-Line, but they did manage 110 yards, and 3.8 per attempt.  That gave them something. This will be a big win for LSU’s overall resume.  Clemson figures to win, and at-least be in the mix for the ACC Title. Clemson only has 2 more ranked teams on their schedule (FSU will likely be a 3rd when the new polls come out). LSU on the other hand, had 6 more games vs. ranked teams. 3 of them coming on the road.

Oregon 59 13 Montana State – The Ducks being too much for FCS Power Montana State wasn’t surprising. One thing which stood out was that Oregon had 254 yards rushing, and 253 yards passing. Have seen people questioning Oregon’s weapons, but that’s good balance. A whole lot of Ducks got touches, that has to be encouraging for them. Coming off of his 10.5 sack season last year, LB Matayo Uiagalelei had 2 to begin his 2025 campaign. The next three weeks for Oregon are vs. Oklahoma State, Northwestern, and Oregon State.  The Ducks being big favorites vs. each.

Florida State 31 Alabama 17 – This game was a perfect example of how you just don’t know until you see it.  Florida State had a very strong 2023 season, that ended with an embarrassing 63-3 loss to Georgia in the Orange Bowl. To be fair, FSU had a lot of NFL departures prior to that game. 2024 was a complete disaster for FSU from beginning to end. Coming into this game, you had to wonder where things were for Mike Norvell’s program. Alabama came into the game ranked 8th Nationally, with most predictions seemingly expecting an uptick for the Crimson Tide in Kalen DeBoer’s second year the helm.  When Alabama started the game running downhill on FSU, I thought it the early look of a game which could get out of hand quickly. Instead, FSU met the physical challenge, and started tackling with ferocity and moving the ball on the ground with strength. The crowd got into the game, and the Seminoles player seemed to feed off of Transfer QB Tommy Castellanos. Castellanos was 9 of 14 throwing, but also had 78 yards rushing. The stat line wasn’t huge, but the impact was there. 236 yards rushing, and 4 TD’s on the ground for FSU.  3 sacks and 7 Tackles for Loss for the FSU defense.  This year FSU has a home game vs. Miami, and road games at Clemson, and Florida. Alabama has four ranked teams left on their schedule. Replacing Nick Saban was never going to be easy for any coach. But we’re 1 week into DeBoer’s second year, and it definitely feels like the ‘Bama program has taken a step back.

Utah 43 UCLA 10 – The Utes first season in the Big 12 went a bit sideways last year. This year, they are seemingly under the radar both within the Big 12, and also Nationally. They piled up 287 yards rushing against the Big Ten’s Bruins.  UCLA spent a lot of money for QB Nico lamaleva.  Iamaleva was 11 of 22 passing (136 yards), and had 47 yards rushing. Any thought of UCLA being a Big Ten sleeper ended quickly. Utah has three ranked teams left on the schedule, and each of those games are home.

Miami 27 Notre Dame 24 – This was a good game between two good teams. I was surprised when Carson Beck was being billed as a possible #1 overall NFL selection when he was at Georgia; but fans of the Hurricanes have to be thrilled to have someone with his experience and pedigree able to step-in to replace Cam Ward. The Miami defense came up with 3 sacks, 5 tackles for loss, and a pick. Miami gets a tune-up vs. Bethune Saturday before facing South Florida, Florida, and Florida State over three successive weeks. That trip to Tallahassee could have lasting implications on the ACC hierarchy. The Hurricanes do not face Clemson in the regular season at-least.  Notre Dame of course is not tied to a conference and has to secure an at-large bid to reach the playoffs. Losing a tight game at Miami in August won’t disqualify them, but they didn’t add the W to their ledger either. The Irish are off this weekend, and will then host a very capable Texas A&M squad. Just 94 rushing yards for the Irish vs. Miami. Will be curious to see if they get a ground game going vs. the Aggies.

Week 2 Games Of Note

Iowa at Iowa State – In-state rivalry game, with the Cyclones currently in the Top 25.

Oklahoma State at Oregon – As mentioned above, the Ducks are big favorites, but I don’t think anyone knows what the Cowboys are at this point. Mike Gundy typically has a competitive team, and this year he apparently has 65 new players on the roster. Last year they were horrible (3-9 overall, 0-9 in league play), but in ’23 they were 10-4.

Ole Miss at Kentucky – Conference game.

Kansas at Missouri – Big 12 at SEC.

South Florida at Florida – The Bulls beating of the Boise State will surely have caught the eyes of the Gators.

Arizona State at Mississippi State – Big 12 at SEC.

Michigan at Oklahoma – Year 2 for Michigan Head Coach Sherrone Moore, and Year 3 for Oklahoma Head Coach Brent Venables. Both teams ranked.  Big Ten at SEC.  Both teams with huge program expectations, but neither expected to be a real power this year.  It’s nice opportunity for either program to get a quality win.

 

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