College Football 2025 – Reviewing Week 4, Previewing Week 5

After four weeks of games, there is growing clarity of the college football landscape.

All percentages mentioned below, come from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 4 Quick Hits

Miami 26 Florida 7 – A third consecutive loss for the Gators is a storyline; but the Hurricanes looking like a legitimate power is a larger one. Florida was 0 for 13 on 3rd down. Some combination of their own ineptitude and some credit to Miami. Miami’s Carson Beck only had 160 yards, but the Hurricanes were able to rush for nearly 200 yards. Four Miami players had at-least four catches. Four sacks for the Miami defense.

Oregon 41 Oregon State 6 –  Just an unfair in-state match-up at this point. Maybe Oregon State’s program starts trending up next year with the new revival of the Pac 12.  The Ducks continue to take care of business. Through four games, Oregon has allowed just 37 points. QB Dante Moore threw for 4 TD’s, and 305 yards. He now has 11 TD’s, against 1 pick on the year. 280 yards rushing for Oregon, and three different receivers had at-least 60 yards receiving.

Florida State 66 Kent State 10 – Tommy Castellanos was 10 of 13 (in his three games as a Seminole, Castellanos has 38 total attempts) for 205 yards. He also ran it 7 times for 54 yards and 2 scores. 498 yards on the ground and 8 TD’s for the Seminoles rushing offense. Yes, Kent State is a below average MAC team, but that’s still an impressive showing for FSU.

Texas 55 Sam Houston State 0 – Conference USA’s SHST is now 0-4. Texas blowing them out isn’t surprising or impressive. It is worth noting though that Arch Manning had 309 yards passing with 3 TD’s, and he ran for two more scores. He punctuated one score with some smack talk. He was feeling himself. It only matters if he builds off of this, but if this outing got his confidence back up (and his mechanics were more sound than they had been in the previous three weeks); that’s a good thing for the Longhorns. 607 total yards for Texas. SHST was 2 of 14 on 3rd down, and 0 for 2 on 4th.  Texas Sophomore WR Ryan Wingo (6’2, 214lbs) had 93 yards receiving and 2 scores.

Indiana 63 Illinois 10 – Yikes. This was one of the more interesting games of the weekend going into Week 4, but by halftime the Hoosiers were 35-10.  Indiana HC Curt Cignetti was quoted postgame as saying, “We broke their will.” Yeah, that will happen when you run for 312 yards, and hold the opponent to 2 rushing yards. A Bret Bielema team dominated physically? A 53 point loss is going to stick with the College Football Committee even if Illinois rebounds.  Indiana served some notice here, that they intend to get back to the CFP. Despite the halftime lead, they did not ease off the gas. That’s fully about building their resume. Junior QB Fernando Mendoza has now thrown for 975 yards, and 14 TD’s without a pick. This is back-to-back weeks with 5 TD’s for him, and he’s been 40 of 43 on his attempts. The Indiana defense had 7 sacks, and a pick.

Oklahoma 24 Auburn 17 – SEC fans seemed to enjoy Oklahoma struggling last year in their introduction to their new conference. The Sooners look more like a traditional OU team this year. QB John Mateer is regarded as one of the best college QBs. The Sooners defense was able to sack Auburn 9 times!

Ole Miss 45 Tulane 10 – Tulane might contender for an American Athletic Conference title this year, but a result that reminds that there are levels to this! The Rebels Senior QB Trinidad Chambliss threw for 307 yards, and ran for 112 more.

Texas Tech 34 Utah 10 – I knew that the Red Raiders spent a lot of NIL money acquiring their roster; but I went into this game anticipating the Utes would win at home. This was a 13-10 game with 10 minutes left, but it was all Texas Tech down the stretch as the Red Raiders would put up three unanswered TD’s. An important road Big 12 conference win for TT. Utah typically has a strong defense. They let up 484 yards here, and TT was 9 of 17 on 3rd. Texas Tech starting QB Behren Morton left the game in the 3rd with a concussion. Will Hammond came on, and was 13 of 16 for 169 yards and 2 scores. Hammond also ran for 61 yards. Not a bad half from him!

Memphis 32 Arkansas 31 – The Tigers improved to 4-0, and will be favored in each of their remaining AAC games after beating the SEC’s Razorbacks.

Tulsa 19 Oklahoma State 12 – Mike Gundy has been the Oklahoma State Head Coach since 2005. He’s won 170 games for the Cowboys, including a second Fiesta Bowl win in 2021. He’s a 3x Big 12 Coach of the Year, and has had 11 teams end the year ranked. He’s also coming off of a 3-9, 0-9 season and is now 1-2 to begin ’25. This was a Tulsa team which got destroyed by Navy last week, and had also lost to New Mexico State. Things aren’t going to get easier for OSU as the Big 12 conference schedule begins.

Syracuse 34 Clemson 21 – Clemson came into the year as the recognized favorite in the ACC, with expectations of not just reaching the CFP – but being a factor once there. They’re now 1-3, and 0-2 in the ACC.  Playoff talk is done, and Clemson fans seem to be tiring of Head Coach Dabo Swinney. Swinney took over Clemson in 2008. He’s won 181 games for the Tigers. That includes two National Championships, and four National Championship Game appearances. They’ve been ranked at the end of each season since 2011.  But after finishing 1st to 4th Nationally each year from 2015 to 2020; they’ve spent the last four years finishing somewhere between 11th to 20th. They expected a return to dominance this year. Instead they’re entering Week 5 not ranked.

Reviewing The Conferences

AAC – Navy is 2-0 in conference. North Texas, and Rice are both 1-0.  Memphis, South Florida, and Tulane have yet to play a conference game.

ACC – Georgia Tech is 4-0 overall, and has the head-to-head vs. Clemson. Miami and Florida State are both in the National Top 10.

Big 12 – Iowa State and Texas Tech are both 4-0 overall, and 1-0 in league play. Houston is 3-0 overall, 1-0 in the Big 12. BYU, TCU, and UCF are each 3-0, and have yet to play a game within the Big 12.

Big Ten – Ohio State and Penn State are 1 and 2 Nationally, but haven’t played a game in the Conference.  Oregon is 6th Nationally, 4-0 overall, 1-0 in the conference. USC is 4-0, 2-0 in the league. Indiana and Maryland are both 4-0 overall, with a league win. Washington is 3-0, and hasn’t played a Big Ten game yet.

Conference USA – Delaware, Louisiana Tech, and Western Kentucky are each 3-1 overall, and 1-0 in the conference.

Mid-American – Buffalo, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Ohio, and Toledo are each 2-2 overall, with Buffalo and Western Michigan both 1-0 within the conference.

Mountain West – Fresno State is 4-1 overall, 1-0 in the MW. Utah State, and Boise Stare are 3-1, and 2-1 respectfully; each 1-0 in the league.

SEC – The are 10 ranked teams in the SEC. Ole Miss is 2-0 in the league. LSU, Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Georgia, each 1-0 in the SEC. LSU, Georgia, Texas, and Texas A&M each in the National Top 10.

Sun Belt – Coastal Carolina, and Southern Miss are both 1-0 in the conference. Texas State is 3-1 overall.

Week 5 Games of Note

USC at Illinois – Can the Trojans get to 3-0 in the conference? Does Illinois rebound by Indiana?

Ohio State at Washington – The Buckeyes are a 10.5 point favorite, and given a 68.8% chance of winning.

LSU at Ole Miss – LSU is the 3rd ranked team in the country, but given just a 26.7% chance of winning at Ole Miss.

Oregon at Penn State – The Nittany Lions were off in Week 4.  In Week 5, they host the Ducks.  PSU is a 3.5 point favorite, and given a 51.1% chance of winning at home.

Alabama at Georgia – Both of these teams were off in Week 4. Georgia opens as a 3.5 point favorite against the Crimson Tide, and the Bulldogs are given a 54.8% chance of winning at home.

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