If history tells us anything, it’s that the Ravens’ season starts now.
So much strife has occurred within the Ravens fanbase, even in just 10 games. The defense, which was thought to be elite, gave up 32.3 points per game before the bye week. Lamar Jackson got hurt. The offensive line—which had been a strength—was uncharacteristically unstable. Baltimore’s men up front rank 24th in sacks allowed, yet have helped its running game rank 2nd in the league in yards per carry.
It’s almost as if the Ravens don’t know who they are, but they’re starting to figure it out.
Early losses to Super Bowl contenders are one thing, but losing three straight home games for the first time in 18 years is something much different.
Before this season, the Ravens had never lost three consecutive homes games under John Harbaugh. That said, the Ravens are one game behind the Steelers in the AFC North, with both games against Pittsburgh yet to play. Just about everything they wanted at the beginning of the season is still there for the taking.
The combined win percentage of the opponents Baltimore has played so far is 49.5 percent (51-52). The combined win percentage of Baltimore’s opponents going forward is 50.0 percent (35-35-1). In other words, the Ravens will face virtually the same difficulty going forward as they have thus far.
Although they figure to face the same kind of teams, they’re actually in a better position now, as they’ve worked out a lot of kinks in their play calling and gameday operation. That said, the conversation about a successful Ravens season focuses on one man: Jackson.
The 2-time NFL MVP has missed two Wednesday practices in successive weeks. It’s not a big deal now, but would be worth noting if it continues. Even if it’s more or less a veteran day off, he’s the quarterback—the integral player on the team. He shouldn’t miss practice if he’s healthy, period. Three months ago, we talked about Lamar’s win percentage by month. September was always a shaky month for him, as was proved again this year. The flip side was that once the calendar turned to October, he and the Ravens are off to the races.
In his career, Jackson has won 55.0 percent of games he’s played in September while winning 78.4 percent of games after that. Combine that with his 73.3 percent regular season win percentage when starting, and suddenly the uncertainty that clouded this team in the beginning of the season starts to dissipate.
If those numbers bear out accordingly, the Ravens should be looking at a 2025 record of 10-7 or 11-6. That should be enough to get them into the playoffs, if not win the AFC North. From Week 11 onward last year, the Ravens went 5-2 and finished with a regular season record of 12-5 (4-2).
Can they continue such late season success? If that question is based mostly on Jackson’s health, the very next criteria to look at would be pass protection. It doesn’t matter if Myles Garrett is on a historic run. That is not an excuse to just let another man dominate you at will. If the Ravens don’t clean up their pass protection quick—like, this week—they will slowly and surely run out of gas on their quest for playoff football, as the Jets rank 4th in the NFL in sacks.
There is absolutely no way this game should even be close. But if the Ravens mess around and don’t put teams away (like they’ve been known to do this year), they will lose. The Jets might not be a good team, but they’re an NFL team. Way too often do the Ravens play to their competition.
This is a statement game. Dominate, and dominate early, to show you’re back as a playoff threat. But more importantly, stack an early lead to get key players some valuable time off as the following game will take place just four days later.
Speaking of future games, let’s take a brief look at how the playoff picture looks now and how it could look at the end of this season.
AFC/NFC current playoff seedings
1) Denver (9-2)/Philadelphia (8-2) – BYE
2) New England (9-2)/Los Angeles Rams (8-2)
3) Indianapolis (8-2)/Chicago (7-3)
4) Pittsburgh (6-4)/Tampa Bay (6-4) – Division Champs
5) Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)/Seattle (7-3)
6) Buffalo (7-4)/Green Bay (6-3-1)
7) Jacksonville (6-4)/San Francisco (7-4) – Wildcard Teams
AFC/NFC projected playoff seedings
1) Broncos/Eagles – BYE
2) Patriots/Rams
3) Colts/Buccaneers
4) Ravens/Bears – Division Champs
5) Texans/Seahawks
6) Bills/49ers
7) Chargers/Lions – Wildcard Teams
Could it be that the Ravens host an AFC South team in the Wildcard round, then go on the road in the Divisional round to face Denver, and then on the road again to play the AFC Championship in New England? I think we’ve seen this movie before. As JP in Angels in the Outfield would say, “It could happen!”
Baltimore has avoided a truly terrible season because of a favorable schedule, honestly, and because of grit and perseverance. How far they go from here really depends on just that—grit and perseverance. The Ravens have such a rare opportunity ahead of them. They’re one of five teams in this league (Chiefs, Eagles, Lions, and Bills) that have the capacity to go from a 2-touchdown loss to a 4-touchdown win. Their potential is almost endless. So, where do the Ravens go from here? As I wrote last month: “Honestly, that’s completely up to them.”
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.