College Football 2025 – Where We Stand Headed Into Championship Weekend

The regular season has concluded and we know who some of the playoff participants will be, and approximately where they will be seeded. But there are still spots to be filled and intrigue abounds. Let’s go!

 

Who’s In?

Ohio State and Indiana finished ranked 1 and 2, respectively. When they meet in the Big Ten Championship Game it will strictly be for a conference banner and the #1 overall seed. The loser is very unlikely to drop out of the Top 4, so there really isn’t a great deal hinging on the outcome of this one. If you were to ask both teams what they really want most out of the game, it would almost certainly be no serious injuries.

Georgia is in a similar spot sitting at #3. They will play Alabama for the SEC Championship (again), but probably remain in the Top 4 even if they lose. The Tide have definitely had their number over the years, even without Nick Saban stalking the sideline, so winning this one would feel nice for the Bulldogs. But if you were to force them to choose between winning or emerging from the game healthy, I think they’d choose the latter.

#4 Texas Tech was the main beneficiary of Texas A&M’s loss. They now hold a spot for a first round bye and should keep it if they defeat BYU in the Big 12 Championship Game. Lose and they probably drop, but not all the way out of the playoff bracket. The Red Raiders defeated the Cougars 29-7 in Lubbock in November.

Oregon and Ole Miss also moved up after the Texas A&M loss to #5 and #6, respectively. At that spot the Ducks will be hosting one of Tulane/North Texas/James Madison on Dec 19th or 20th. The Rebels, who rightfully were not dropped after Lane Kiffin’s departure, will host one of Virginia/Tulane/North Texas on the 19th or 20th. More on how that might shake out later.

I need to give Texas A&M their own little section here. They dropped from #3 to #7 after their 27-17 loss to Texas, which also eliminated their chances to play for the SEC title. I’ve long assumed the Aggies deserved their high ranking after beating Notre Dame in South Bend in Week 3. Now I’m wondering if they are a low-key fraud. What else is on their resume besides that? Of the SEC teams they played, only one had a winning record in conference….Texas, a loss. Their best SEC win came against Missouri, a team that had exactly zero wins against opponents that finished with a winning record. Of the bottom five teams in the SEC standings, the Aggies played them all. Half of the SEC teams they played fired their coach. I think you get my point. Nonetheless, they should still end up hosting a game at home in the first round, even if they drop a spot. (see: Alabama)

Oklahoma held on to their #8 spot from last week. Right now they would host the #9 team at home. But that could change. While they are unlikely to move up, they could get bumped down and have to hit the road in the first round.

Alabama jumped Notre Dame from #10 to #9 after beating 5-win Auburn. Why? Apparently the committee was impressed that they went on the road and won a rivalry game where they were impressive in the 1st Half (much less so in the 2nd Half) and specifically praised the coaching staff for going for it on a 4th-and-goal in the 4th Qtr, with the game tied, instead of taking the field goal for a 3 point lead. Whatever. The Irish won convincingly at Stanford, but I guess it wasn’t enough, and if things break wrong for them Saturday they could get left out (again, more on that in a bit). As for Alabama, I have to believe if they lose to Georgia they won’t drop out of the playoff bracket. The big question is what happens if they win? How far should they move up? Ahead of Oklahoma, who defeated them couple weeks ago? Should they ascend all the way to the Top 4? They would have some great wins (Georgia twice, Vanderbilt and Tennessee). But the stench of that opening loss at Florida State….how much does that hurt?

 

Who Has Work To Do, Or Needs Help?

So #10 Notre Dame is now surprisingly in a precarious spot, and they need to root for the chalk to hold Saturday, especially in the Big 12. Obviously they can only get in as an at-large, and with two teams ranked well below them certain to get in as conference champions, they cannot fall below #10. But the bigger risk is if #11 BYU upsets Texas Tech. The Cougars automatically be  in the playoff as a conference champion, whether they jump Notre Dame in the final rankings or not. That’s why getting leap-frogged by Alabama was such a big deal. Now it’s possible that if Alabama loses to Georgia they would drop back down to the 10 spot, making the Tide a potential victim if BYU pulls the upset. But that would seem an odd move by the committee. The more I see how this whole rankings thing works, the more confused I get.

Since we touched on BYU already (they must win, or they have no chance) that leaves #12 Miami and #13 Texas as teams who will probably generate a lot of discussion, but have no realistic chance of moving into the field. The Hurricanes are simply the victim of an ACC tie-breaker process that left them out of the conference title game in favor of 7-5 Duke. So if Miami wants to do some lobbying, do it at the next conference meeting. Still, it’s pretty dumb that the best team by far in the conference can’t even play for the title. As for Texas….yeah, you have some great wins on your resume (Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M). And no shame at all in that 7-point loss at Ohio State. The 25-point loss at Georgia is a bit unsightly, but it was losing to 4-win Florida is what truly sank your chances. Sorry, but you gotta take care of business against teams like that.

The ACC-mageddon scenario I’ve alluded to in the past has almost come to fruition. #17 Virginia will play Duke (again, 7-5) for the conference title. If the Cavs win, they are in. We have no idea where the committee would put Duke if they actually ranked every team in FBS, but safe to say it would not be ahead of the AAC champion, or #25 James Madison if they win the Sun Belt, and maybe not even ahead of UNLV if they win the Mountain West. So yeah, the ACC will most likely be left out if Virginia loses. Bad look.

The AAC Championship is a play-in game between #20 Tulane and #24 North Texas, with the winner getting the #12 seed if Virginia wins, or the #11 seed if Duke wins. #25 James Madison must defeat Troy, then hope for chaos in the ACC.

So if the playoff were to be seeded today, here would be the matchups for the first two rounds:

 

Coaching Carousel

Too much activity to list it all here, but I have random thoughts on a couple things.

I’m not sure how much more there is to say about the Lane Kiffin situation that hasn’t already been said. I’ll just add my 2-cents:

• I understand why he thought LSU was a better job than Ole Miss, and respect his right to make that choice
• The timing stunk, and that’s not all his fault, but that he did leave Ole Miss just as they were officially set to be in the CFP will never stop being a bad look for him
• The belief that he should have been allowed to stay at Ole Miss to coach them in the CFP while also working for LSU is absurd, and Ole Miss made the right decision in telling him to pound sand when he tried to leverage them into letting him do it
• Yes, I know the coaches at Tulane (Jon Sumrall to Florida), North Texas (Eric Morris to Oklahoma State) and James Madison (Bob Chesney to UCLA) will be doing exactly that if their teams make it to the playoff. But I don’t believe that’s an apples to apples comparison. Their current teams do not compete against or recruit in the same waters as the teams those coaches will take over.
• People talk about feeling sorry for the Ole Miss players. Yeah, I’m sure this was a distraction and change they did not want. But I don’t think we need to take pity on them. Those players will rally around each other and maybe even have a chip on their shoulder to prove to everyone that they, and not Lane Kiffin, are the reason Ole Miss is in the playoff for the first time. The Rebels aren’t one of the favorites to win it all, with or without Kiffin, but they’ll be fine.
• Ok, that was more like 5-cents. Sue me.

No idea what is going on at Penn State. They fired James Franklin in October, presumably to get a jump on finding his replacement, and here we are in December and all we know for sure is BYU’s Kalani Sitake turned them down a couple days ago. Um….what have you been doing the past month-and-a-half??? James Franklin found himself another job weeks before you’ll get around to hiring his replacement, for crying out loud. The early signing period for high school players came and went, and only two players signed up for a team with no permanent head coach. Many who were committed have gone elsewhere, including several with Franklin at Virginia Tech. Latest word is they are interested in Iowa State’s Matt Campbell. I think that’d be an excellent choice. Why weren’t you on him weeks ago???

 

Games of the Week (With the Most CFP Impact)

#24 North Texas at #20 Tulane – 8pm ET (Friday), ABC, Line: North Texas -2.5, O/U 66.5

It’s green on green violence as the Mean Green take on the Green Wave. Both teams will part ways with their head coach after their seasons end. As the over/under indicates, this could be a high-scoring affair in a CFP play-in game. However, the weather in New Orleans currently calls for steady rain, which could be a factor in slowing down the more offense-reliant North Texas. That plus home field makes me lean underdog.

Pick: Tulane win/cover

#11 BYU vs #4 Texas Tech (Arlington, TX) – Noon ET, ABC, Line: Texas Tech -12.5, O/U 49.5

This is a rematch, first won by Texas Tech 29-7, and the game was even more lopsided than the score indicates. In the Cougars defense, leading rusher LJ Martin was hampered by a shoulder injury that day, and they uncharacteristically turned the ball over three times. So I expect a closer game, and unlike the Red Raiders this is do-or-die for BYU. Still, I don’t think it will be enough….Tech is simply the better team.

Pick: Texas Tech win/BYU cover

#9 Alabama vs #3 Georgia – 4:00pm ET, ABC, Line: Georgia -2.5, O/U 48.5

Georgia is just 1-7 against Alabama under Kirby Smart. You know the Bulldogs would love to start evening the ledger. But with no real CFP implications on the line for them I wonder just how focused and committed they’ll be. Alabama should know the result of the Big 12 game by kickoff, and if Texas Tech wins they can probably feel secure in knowing they’re still in if they lose this one. But I have a hunch they’d love to insert a bit of chaos into the rankings and force the committee to move them higher, to at least hosting a first round game in Tuscaloosa. And if BYU wins, they’re likely playing for their playoff lives.

Pick: Alabama win/cover