2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions

The 2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket has been released, and the Madness tips off Tuesday night with the First Four, culminating with the NCAA Championship Monday, April 6th in Indianapolis.

Here we give our initial predictions – with it being assured that we will second guess ourselves many times before the First Round gets underway Thursday afternoon.

East Region: 

1 Duke
16 Siena

8 Ohio State
9 TCU

5 St. John’s
12 Northern Iowa

4 Kansas
13 Cal Baptist

6 Louisville
11 South Florida

3 Michigan State
14 North Dakota State

7 UCLA
10 UCF

2 UConn
15 Furman

East First Round Winners: Duke, Ohio State, St. John’s, Kansas, South Florida, Michigan State, UCLA, UConn
East Second Round Winners:  Duke, St. John’s, Michigan State, UConn
East Sweet 16 Winners: St. John’s, Michigan State
East Region Winner:  St. John’s

Something To Watch In The East: South Florida was 15-3 in an underrated American Conference. Louisville’s Mikel Brown will need to come up big there to avoid the perceived upset. Some great Coaches in this Region – Pitino, Izzo, Hurley.  Does Kansas’ Darryn Peterson just go off? It’s fun being the age where I fully remember Cameron Boozer’s father’s career.  Fantastic year for Boozer.

Midwest Region: 

1 Michigan
16 UMBC / Howard

8 Georgia
9 Saint Louis

5 Texas Tech
12 Akron

4 Alabama
13 Hofstra

6 Tennessee
11 Miami (OH) / SMU

3 Virginia
14 Wright State

7 Kentucky
10 Santa Clara

2 Iowa State
15 Tennessee State

Midwest First Round Winners: Michigan, Georgia, Akron, Alabama, Tennessee, Virginia, Kentucky, Iowa State
Midwest Second Round Winners: Michigan, Alabama, Virginia, Iowa State
Midwest Sweet 16 Winners: Michigan, Virginia
Midwest Region Winner: Michigan

Something To Watch In The Midwest: UMBC can get an opportunity at another #1 seed if they can beat Howard in the play-in. Texas Tech will have Christian Anderson available, but JT Toppin is out for the year after his ACL injury last month. I’m not going to call it, but Santa Clara beating Kentucky wouldn’t be a surprise. Iowa State was 6th overall via KenPom, I might be undervaluing them as I have them losing to UVA in the S16. Michigan lost their backup PG LJ Cason to injury in late February, and that has impacted their rotation. Alabama and Michigan could be a shoot-out. Alabama’s offense is good enough to win. Taking Michigan, as the Wolverines are Top 10 via KenPom in both offense and defense.  I was happy for Miami (OH) that they saw their name called, and disappointed for them that they’re in the play-in.

South Region: 

1 Florida
16 Prairie View A&M / Lehigh

8 Clemson
9 Iowa

5 Vanderbilt
12 McNeese

4 Nebraska
13 Troy

6 North Carolina
11 VCU

3 Illinois
14 Penn

7 Saint Mary’s
10 Texas A&M

2 Houston
15 Idaho

South First Round Winners:  Florida, Clemson, Vanderbilt, Nebraska, VCU, Illinois, Saint Mary’s, Houston
South Second Round Winners: Florida, Vanderbilt, VCU, Houston
South Sweet 16 Winners: Florida, Houston
South Region Winner: Houston

Something To Watch In The South: I think Florida has an easy path to the S16. I’ll take the Gators over Vanderbilt if they meet again, but the Commodores did just beat Florida by 17 in the SEC Tournament. VCU has won 16 of 17, I like that consistency, and UNC isn’t the same since losing Caleb Wilson. Florida vs. Houston would be a great game.

West Region: 

1 Arizona
16 LIU

8 Villanova
9 Utah State

5 Wisconsin
12 High Point

4 Arkansas
13 Hawaii

6 BYU
11 Texas / NCST

3 Gonzaga
14 Kennesaw State

7 Miami (FL)
10 Missouri

2 Purdue
15 Queens

West First Round Winners: Arizona, Utah State, High Point, Arkansas, BYU, Gonzaga, Miami, Purdue
West Second Round Winners: Arizona, Arkansas, Gonzaga, Purdue
West Sweet 16 Winners: Arizona, Gonzaga
West Region Winner: Arizona

Something To Watch In The West: Not taking Utah State over Villanova because of Willard.  The Aggies were 15-5 in a quality Mountain West. High Point was 15-1 in the Big South, and 6th overall in the most recent Mid-Major poll. They score, and Wisconsin was just 52nd overall via KenPom in defense.  I’m not going to take Arkansas over Arizona, but that’s a dangerous game for the Wildcats. BYU’s AJ Dybantsa is the currently projected #1 pick in the NBA Draft. They’ll be favored in Round 1, but I don’t envy them having to face a major-conference team that will have gotten their feet wet in the play-in game. I don’t think this is a great Gonzaga team, but I have confidence in Mark Few being able to find two wins here. Purdue vs. Gonzaga is a coin-flip for me, but I’ll take the Zags. Don’t see either one of them beating Arizona.

Final Four: St. John’s, Houston, Michigan, Arizona

Championship: Houston vs. Arizona

Champion: Arizona

Calling for an All-Big 12 National Championship feels like a reach, but these are two excellent teams. The Wildcats are 2-0 vs. Houston, including the Big 12 Championship. Hard to beat a quality team 3x, but I think that’s what happens, if these teams face off once more.