If Spring Training finishes smoothly, we should expect to see Colton Cowser as this year’s Opening Day center fielder. However, it seems quite likely that we’ll end 2026 with Enrique Bradfield Jr. taking over the position.
Bradfield Jr. is expected to offer the Orioles excellent fielding and speed from day one, but also comes with offensive question marks. MLB.com lists him as having a 50-grade hit tool paired with a 35-grade power tool, and he has hit just seven homers across 209 career minor league games.
So, what are some of the possible outcomes for someone with Bradfield Jr.’s projected skillset? Let’s dig in.
The 99th percentile, best-case outcome: Kenny Lofton
A six-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glover, it’d be quite the success story if Bradfield Jr. turns his speed and fielding into a career like Kenny Lofton’s.
Lofton was one of the best base-stealers in the sport’s history, finishing 15th all-time in stolen bases and leading the American League in stolen bases on five separate occasions. His volume of stolen bases was also helped by his on-base percentage, producing four different seasons with an OBP above .400 and another three seasons with at least a .370 OBP.
Defensive WAR from Baseball-Reference also rated his fielding highly, with Lofton having four seasons with a dWAR of at least 2.0. Across Lofton’s 17-year career, the only times he was worth negative dWAR came in the final two years of his career.
Lofton also offered some respectable pop for someone with his speed, providing four different seasons with an isolated power above .120 in at least 400 plate appearances while stealing 40+ bases as a center fielder. The only two center fielders to do this more than four times were Cesar Cedeno and some fella named Ty Cobb.
Lofton but with less power: Juan Pierre
With seven homers in 209 minor league games, Bradfield Jr. reaching Lofton’s power production would be pretty impressive, so let’s look at someone who offers contact and speed without much pop.
Juan Pierre had six seasons with an average above .300, clearing 200 hits in a season four times and only ending the year with an average below .275 once.
Pierre was also a nuisance once he got on-base, clearing 60 stolen bases in three seasons and averaging 43.9 steals per season. However, he was a bit reckless on the bases and was constantly among the league leaders for being caught stealing.
Pierre also hit just 18 homers in 14 seasons and failed to hit a homer in three separate seasons. He did manage to record double-digit triples four different times, but that hardly did enough to give him a respectable slugging percentage.
If Bradfield Jr. ends up with a career similar to Pierre, he’d still have plenty of seasons with a positive WAR, but there’s still quite a gap between Pierre’s best years and Lofton’s.
(Bob Phelan suggested Michael Bourn, who is also a good example of someone in the Lofton and Pierre mold from the 2000’s and 2010’s.)
The reigning AL Gold Glove winner in Center: Ceddanne Rafaela
Lofton and Pierre are definitely good comparisons for Bradfield Jr., but we should also take a look at some more modern players. Why not start with the reigning Gold Glove winner in the AL?
Ceddanne Rafaela was a quite deserving winner of the Gold Glove in the AL, thanks to being in the 99th percentile for outs above average on Baseball Savant. Unsurprisingly, Rafaela’s range also meant he was a speedy runner with a 92nd percentile sprint speed. Interestingly enough, Rafaela’s baserunning speed didn’t really translate to stealing bases: he had only 20 steals in 25 attempts.
However, Rafaela does start to differ from Bradfield Jr. once we look at the offensive profile. Rafaela was given 50-grade power as a prospect by MLB.com and hit 16 homers in 156 games last year.
Rafaela’s fielding, speed and adequate amount of power led to a 4.7 bWAR last year, which ranked 28th among all position players and was fourth for center fielders.
Bradfield Jr. finding enough power to ever hit double-digit homers in the majors seems like a tall task, but if he can pull it off, he could be a top-five center fielder in the sport.
The worst-case scenario on offense that’s still a net positive: Billy Hamilton
From 2015-2017, Billy Hamilton had a slashline of .245/.298/.324, producing a .622 OPS and a 66 OPS+ while still averaging 2.3 bWAR per 162 games during that span.
Hamilton averaged 75.8 steals per 162 games during across those three seasons, a pretty remarkable amount for someone who didn’t even reach base in 30 percent of his PAs during that three-year period.
As you would expect, Hamilton’s speed also translated to excellent range in center. In 2016 he was in the 100th percentile for outs above average and the 97th percentile in 2017. (Baseball Savant doesn’t have fielding data for 2015.)
You’d hope Bradfield Jr.’s average and OBP aren’t that terrible, but Hamilton proves that 70 steals per season with elite defense is still someone worthy of a starting spot.
BSL Analyst
Rose Katz is a recent graduate of the University of Maryland’s journalism school, where she worked for The Diamondback as the online managing editor and a sports blogger. As a student, she spent almost all of her time on campus in The Diamondback’s newsroom or at Xfinity Center, Ludwig Field and Maryland Stadium. Rose gained intern experience with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN).