Facts And Opinions After 23 Games

After their 7-5 12 inning win last night at Kansas City, the Orioles improved to 11-12 in these early days of the 2026 campaign.

Much of early-season baseball is trying to determine what’s real, and what’s an aberration?

If you have a player with a historical track-record – and you are looking at numbers that dramatically positively or negatively vary from expected levels – then you are expecting a return to the norm; or are seeking understanding of why things have changed.

23 games is only 14% of a 162 game grind, and 14% of a Major League season isn’t a particularly telling period of time.

That said, these games certainly count, and their results will have season long-impact.

Based on what we’ve seen far, what are the realities?  What are the concerns?  And lastly, what are opportunities for improvement?

In homage – and with the usual apologies –  to former Baltimore Sun / Comcast Sportsnet / Baltimore Ravens Columnist John Eisenberg; here is my version of John’s Fact & Opinion column based on what we’ve seen from the Orioles so far.

Fact: The Orioles are 16th overall in total runs, 17th in on-base %, and 21st overall in slugging %.

Opinion: The O’s run production is going to be tied to how well they slug. This is a team which was expected to have plus power.  If they don’t start slugging dramatically better, the team is not good enough other wise to contend.

Fact: Pete Alonso has a .642 OPS in his first 86 ab’s as an Oriole.

Opinion:  Alonso is pressing some.  I’m sure he wanted to get off to a better start with his new team. It would be surprising to me if he doesn’t end the year with 35 homers.  I’m not worried about him producing. He figures to find himself. Defense has been better than I anticipated. He also deserves some credit there, as it’s been reported he took extra work at 1st this Spring to improve.

Fact: Gunnar Henderson has 11 XBH’s – including 7 homers – in his first 97 ab’s of the year.  He has also struck out 33 times. His 30% K% far above his 23.4% K% career average.  He’s 3 for his last 30, and his batting average has fallen under .200. Fielding wise, Henderson is sporing a -2 Outs Above Average for his play at SS.

Opinion: There is a lot on Gunnar’s shoulders, and maybe asking the soon-to-be 25 year old to produce like an MVP is unfair.  Still, he had a 7.9 fWAR season two years ago. When you put up a year like that, at that age; expectations going forward are going to be sky high. Gunnar’s end year numbers will be outstanding. But as we’ve said previously, the O’s need more of the Henderson who was MVP caliber in ’24 vs. the All-Star caliber version of Henderson we saw in ’25.  Maybe he is feeling the pressure to be the Elite of the Elite?  Or maybe it’s just a poor 30 ab’s that any player goes through. One way he can lead this team is with his glove, and being consistent day to day with that.

Fact: Out of Dylan Beavers, Colton Cowser, Samuel Basallo, and Coby Mayo; Beavers leads that pack with a .211 batting average. The other three are under .200.

Opinion: I can be confident that Alonso will get going, because he has the track-record of doing so.  What these four are, remains a question. With the injuries to Jordan Westburg, Adley Rutschman (back in the lineup tonight), and Tyler O’Neill; this group has had more ab’s cumulatively than they probably otherwise would have already had. Still, in any scenario, how well this group plays is going to be part of the story for the ’26 O’s. The primary reason the O’s lineup looks thin right now, is that they aren’t getting enough from this group.

Westburg’s injury created a potential 2 month (at-minimum) audition for Mayo.  For as long as Westburg is out, Mayo has a chance to claim 3rd, if he’s not a butcher defensively, and he’s providing regular power. The defense at 3rd is never going to be good, but you could live with him there if he makes the routine, and he hits. If he doesn’t hit, he’ll lose the opportunity. He had a big September, and a strong Spring; but he’s 8 for 54 to start the year. He’s not seizing the moment.  (EDIT 4/22: Mayo had homer #1 last night, a monstrous shot to left.)

Cowser has 18 k’s in 48 ab’s.  He only as 3 ab’s vs. LHP, and he’s carrying a .167 average.  I was willing to write off his ’25 season as a mostly injury-filled year where he was never quite right; but the clock is ticking. In ’24, he played 153 games, and slashed .242 / .321 / .768. If Cowser replicates that here in ’26, that goes a long way to giving the lineup further depth. Right now, it looks like he’s completely overwhelmed by any breaking pitch. Is he a Major League regular, or is he a platoon bat at-best?

Beavers had a 19% BB% last year.  This year, that’s dropped to 10.8% so far.  Slugging down obviously.  He’s been negative in RF, CF, and LF so far.  Beavers was never some uber prospect. He’s got some useful tools. You have to continue to earn your name in the lineup.

Basallo had 2 hits, and 2 walks last night and raised his on-base % to .275.  The power is outrageous.  I’m quite sure Basallo is going to get regular opportunities all year. The lightbulb turning on completely, would make a real difference with the lineup.

Fact: After tonight, Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, and Shane Baz will have made 15 total starts.

Opinion: Rogers coming back to Earth his last couple of times out, and Bradish having four different starts where he’s allowed 3 bb’s has me a bit concerned. Their giving you a chance to win; but for the O’s to reach their upside potential – this duo has be consistent front-end starters. Baz is currently anchored in as the 3rd starter. He’s been livable / reasonable so far. My hope with him, is that he occasionally flashes more. Consistently, it’s reasonable to expect him to look like the mid-rotation starter he is.  And every now and then we should expect a clunker. But we should also expect every now and then that he reminds us of the arm talent. If he’s not going to get more k’s, I’d like to see his ground ball % go up.

Fact: Jackson Holliday is back with AAA Norfolk. The initial 11 game stint with the Tides ended when he was still experiencing pain / soreness after the hamate bone surgery. He got some rest, went to Frederick, and is now back in AAA.  (EDIT 4/22: Holliday left last night’s game with Norfolk with further right-hand discomfort.)

Opinion: If he puts together a few games with Norfolk, and the soreness is behind him; then he’ll be closing in on rejoining the Orioles. When that happens, I’d expect he’d retake 2nd base, and Jeremiah Jackson would shift to 3rd. If Mayo isn’t taking advantage of the opportunity right now, J.Jackson certainly is.  I don’t think Jackson is going to put together a .846 OPS for a season, or be a 6 win player like he’s on-pace to be; but you’ve got to keep riding his bat as long as he continues to hit.  A good problem to have would be that Holliday returns and showing further growth, Jackson continues to hit, and then Westburg becomes available at the end of May.

Fact: As we noted above, Rutschman is back on the roster tonight.

Opinion: He hasn’t been a lot of fun to watch the last two years, but the lineup looks infinitely better with him. He started off ’26 with 6 doubles in 34 ab’s before his IL trip. That was great to see after a total of 37 doubles over 893 ab’s during ’24 and ’25.  Hopefully he picks up where he left off.

Fact: Leody Taveras is 15 for 44, with a .998 OPS.  Blaze Alexander is 10 for 52, with a .462 OPS.

Opinion: Taveras isn’t going to win Most Valuable Oriole, and Alexander shouldn’t be on DFA watch.  Both players can help a roster, and the O’s are fortunate that Taveras has been hot given the lineup struggles around him. The 12th inning Grand Slam last night was fun. It feels like he’s taken over CF, but I don’t know how long that lasts. Right now, his Baseball Savant page is very red. If Cowser doesn’t come to life, continued regular ab’s are available for him. He did have 143, and 151 game seasons with the Rangers in ’23, and ’24. For his career though, he’s carrying a .660 OPS over 1,800 career ab’s.  If you get to Memorial Day, and he’s at .700 or under, and Cowser hasn’t turned things around; the O’s will likely be ready to promote Enrique Bradfield, who would give the O’s OF defense a lift if nothing else.  Alexander is getting a start in RF tonight.  Curious to see how that goes. They like his versatility. His bat is better than it has shown so far.

Fact: Chris Bassitt has made 4 starts, and given the O’s a total of 16 innings. In his last start, Bassitt went 5 scoreless, to drop his era to 6.19. In his 16 innings of work, he’s allowed 23 hits, with 11 bb’s, and just 7 k’s.

Opinion: 5 scoreless is something to build off, but he was still laboring. Credit to him for the gutsy, veteran outing; but I’m not sure he turned a corner. It didn’t look sustainable. Another positive outing his next time out would reduce some of my anxiety about his current prospects.

Fact:  Keegan Akin, Andrew Kittredge, and Dietrich Enns are getting closer to returning to the O’s bullpen.

Opinion: Who do they replace? I’m an Albert Suarez fan after what he gave the O’s in ’24, but he’s probably one of the answers here. Cameron Foster another.  Who is the 3rd arm?

Fact: The O’s are 11-12, 3rd place in the AL East, 2.5 games back of the New York Yankees. If play ended today, they’d be a half game out of the 3rd AL Wild Card.

Opinion: There is a lot of consternation in Birdland about the current product, which I agree with to a degree. The current product isn’t good enough to be a real contender. There are legitimate alarm bells. They aren’t getting on-base at a high enough %.  The power has been lacking so far.  The starting pitching has been meh. The defense has been limited. Baserunning errors from last year have carried over. But there are reasonable answers for every existing issue. Reasons to believe things can improve. And while the O’s are going through these current issues, their still right around .500.  Hover around .500, and hopefully push over that mark. Get healthy. Don’t get buried. Enter June with the best existing internal options. Then you’ll have two months to see how that roster performs before the deadline, and determine what needs you actually have, and what has to be addressed.  Long way between now and then.  Right now, it’s about building a mentality of fighting everyday. Learning how to win again. Regularly stack series wins. They lost 3 of 4 in Cleveland, after losing 2 of 3 vs. Arizona.  You took Game 1 vs. KC last night. You have an opportunity at a series win tonight.  Start there.