World Cup 2026 – USMNT and Group D

Several weeks ago we took a look at the upcoming WC. The setup for this tournament and how the groups might shake out in what will be the first WC expanded to 48 teams. So there’s no need to go into any backdrop here’s a link if you missed that.

Here we are on May 26th and the roster is official. Yes it was leaked several days ago but its here. Its real. And this will be the biggest tournament in FIFA history and it will be at home for the USMNT. This is huge for every nation but even more so for the Stars and Stripes. A dream to be playing the sport you love and here at the highest level. But then its to another level for our guys. Playing at home really is that much more special. Look for sightings of Clutch the Bald Eagle everywhere this summer!

Full USMNT World Cup roster

Goalkeepers (3): Matt Freese, Matt Turner, Chris Brady

Center backs (5): Chris Richards, Tim Ream, Mark McKenzie, Auston Trusty, Miles Robinson

Fullbacks (5): Antonee Robinson, Sergiño Dest, Alex Freeman, Joe Scally, Max Arfsten

Central midfielders: (4): Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie, Cristian Roldan, Sebastian Berhalter

Attacking midfielders/wingers (6): Christian Pulisic, Tim Weah, Malik Tillman, Gio Reyna, Brenden Aaronson, Alejandro Zendejas

Strikers (3): Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi, Haji Wright

And as expected the internet has been lit up for a couple of days now discussing the roster. Who made it. Who didn’t make it. What is Manager Mauricio Pochettino thinking. My overall thoughts but first with a premise. Its easy to get caught up in sports with these kinds of debates. Much ends up centering around a guys personal favorite players and its entertaining but only to a point. Two comments.

1. No one is more familiar with the players and the tactics planned than the coaching staff. They have access to film, discussion with their club coaches, and most importantly first hand time seeing them in the matches leading up to the WC and what gets overlooked by many fans. At every camp we see the friendlies and how things appear in that 90 minute window. What we don’t see is the week or two of daily training. How the players have adapted to their instructions. How the players have interacted with each other off the field. At the end of the day Pochettino said it simply as this. Our job is not to pick the 26 best players but the 26 players who make up the best team.
2. The decision has been made. Its time to get behind this team, top to bottom, 100%. There will be plenty of time to question the decisions including what we see in the matches. But save that for after the tournament. Now focus on supporting the USMNT all the way. Do or die its our team and its time to see what we have.

Now with that caveat here’s my thoughts on why some guys made it and some didn’t. Most of the roster names itself. To keep this from being a novel here’s the list of guys that were universally expected on the roster.

Goalkeepers – Matt Tuner and Matt Freese

Center Backs – Chris Richards, Mark McKenzie, Tim Ream, and Auston Trusty

Fullbacks – Antonee Robinson, Sergino Dest, Alex Freeman, and Max Arfsten

Central Midfield – Tyler Adams and Wes McKennie

Attacking Midfield and Wingers – Christian Pulisic, Malik Tillman, Tim Weah, and Brenden Aaronson

Strikers – Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi, and Haji Wriight

Thats 19 of 26 players pretty well etched in stone. Yes there was some discussion on Haji Wright but once Patrick Agyemang went down with an Achilles heel injury Wright’s spot was pretty solidified.

Here’s a quick rundown of the remaining 7 players that did make it and several others that didn’t.

Chris Brady – The rules are you must carry 3 goalkeepers. There were a couple of MLS keepers you could have chosen but Brady is a fine choice for the third keeper.

Miles Robinson – The biggest question surrounding Robinson’s inclusion isn’t as much about why him but why 5 center backs. I think the answer is two fold. First Chris Richards is coming off an ankle injury and second Tim Ream is 38 years old. Robinson brings experience and solid defending ability. Should Poch have gone with another Center Mid?

Joe Scally – Not much controversy here. Scall has been a solid player in the German Bundesliga and is a strong defender. Doesn’t offer as much going forward as Dest and Freeman but he’s a better defender.

Sebastian Berhalter – Seb is a solid overall midfielder. Has very good attacking vision and is ok defensively, although it remains to be seen if his defensive skills are up  to handling the talent he’ll see at the WC. But there is one key reason he’s on the roster. Historically speaking, about 30% of the goals scored at the WC come from set pieces. Seb has THE best free kick on the roster. Period. And he and Chris Richards have been especially good at teaming up and finding a goal.

Cristian Roldan – Roldan has played his entire career in the MLS. Some fans still want to snub the MLS thinking if you don’t play in Europe then you aren’t good enough. But Roldan is exactly the kind of player Poch likes in his team. The general tactics we employ calls for midfielders with high energy rates and not prone to mistakes. Roldan is very good in both these aspects.  The flip side here is that some fans felt we needed a stronger defender and that Aiden Morris or Tanner Tessman, both who have had European seasons might have been a better choice here or chose over Scally. The general concern, and it is valid, is that we may lack cover for Tyler Adams. Tyler likely cant start all 3 group games. We’ll see.

Alejandro Zendejas – This is the one surprise for me. He has not been the best when he’s put on the Nats jersey. But he has been killing it in Liga MX this year and has been one of the best players in that league. He does have solid technical skills and a great shot. Personally I liked Diego Luna in this spot a little more. Zendejas is the more technically skilled player but I think Luna’s energy and the spark he provides would have fit well. This was probably the hardest decision Poch had to make. Which of these two guys to take. Only had room for one and he chose Zendejas.

Gio Reyna – Reyna has had a pretty marginal club career for several years now. Some of that injury related and some of it form related. You can’t look past the fact that he has gone to several different clubs and managers and can’t seem to find the field. But the flipside is that he has still shown quite well when he’s put on the USMNT jersey. He has the attacking vision and technical ability to create some late game magic moreso than most anybody on the roster. He’s the guy who if we are down a goal you bring on for the last 20-30 minutes. Again, I could have taken Luna here but Reyna, when his mind is right, is a very special player.

Before we get to the actual WC matches the US has two friendlies. This Sunday against Senegal and then next Saturday against Germany. Word of caution. Its easy to get excited going into the opening match against Paraguay if we do well in these friendlies just like its easy to go in all bummed out if we don’t do well. Surely we’d rather look good headed to the tournament but the results here can be misleading. The purposes of these friendlies is to PREPARE for the WC and the results are secondary. So why even have them if they don’t mean much and you risk injury? Good questions. Here’s the why behind pre WC friendlies.

• The training sessions are used to drill into the players what their roles is, when they are to defend, when they are to attack, who are they providing cover for, who is covering them, etc. And those nuances have to be drilled, drilled, and drilled again. But the bottom line is that you still have to see those instructions play out in actual game situations. You can simulate game pressure in training sessions but its not the same as when facing an opponent. Getting a team all on the same page is job #1 heading into the tournament.
• The training sessions will be conducted with a wide variety of tactics planned to be implemented against the three Group Stage opponents. And like they say in the military the best plans are great until the bullets start flying. The other teams have a say in how things go. The staff needs to test players in certain roles and responsibilities. How quickly do they adjust real time when those have to change in game because the opponent has thrown a wrinkle at you. Who best fill backups to those players for managing fitness and any card accumulation issues?
• Most of these players are coming off long and arduous club seasons. Are they still fit both physically and mentally. Any lingering issues. Who is ready to go multiple 90 minute matches and for those who aren’t what is their expected capacity.

Of course, fans are anxious to watch these friendlies as an expectation on what we might see in our Group Stage matches. Again a word of caution. Most certainly we will get a general sense of how our team is going to play. Will they play 3 across the back? Will they play a 4 man backline with the outside backs pressing into the attack?  Who will pair with Adams in the center of the midfield (more on this later as I think this is THE key question heading into the Paraguay match. Will the wingers tend to stay on their ‘appointed’ side of the field or will they freely switch? Will the striker stay solo up top as a target outlet or will they be paired in attempt to widen the defense? So there is a lot to discern from these two friendlies just don’t get fooled into thinking you’ve got it all figured out before the tournament. Almost guaranteed the Poch will not be showing all his cards!

Ok here it is!

Group D

Composite FIFA Ranking – 105. This is the most balanced group in the tournament. Paraguay comes in at 40 and no other group’s lowest rank team is better. While there is no top 10 team since the US, as a host, was seeded in Pot 1, there are no “easy” teams either. This group, top to bottom, is the most competitive.

Australia (30) – Coach Tony Popovich has kept his coaching approach from the Australian League to his national team. Defense, effort, and strong set pieces. And those things tend to make you a tough out in a tournament format. Sure they don’t have any true superstars but they play collectively better than the sum of their parts. And don’t forget in 2022 they made the Round of 16. They are in their 6th straight WC so they know the drill.

Paraguay (40) – They qualified in the toughest Federation in terms of WC qualification of all of them. CONMEBOL Their matches are played in hostile environments, and often at altitude and high humidity conditions. They finished ahead of Bolivia and Chile. In their 18 qualifying matches they only scored 14 goals. Horrible right? But they only allowed 10 leading them to a 7-7-4 record. They will bunker, play a low block, stall and delay, and hope to find a magic game winning goal (most likely Miguel Almiron). Expect to see a lot of draws in this group.

Turkiye (22) – Returning to the WC for the first time since they reached the semi-finals in 2002, they are one of the favorites in this group. They play attacking soccer with outside backs that will push forward to provide numbers in the attack. The downside is that they are then susceptible to counter attacks especially with speed. This team has a bunch of quality players most notably central midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu, Christian Pulisic’s teammate at AC Milan. Their primary attacking threat is Arda Guler, the Real Madrid attacking midfieler/winger.  Watch this team when you can. They are not boring.

United States (16) – The pressure on this team to perform is immense. They are stuffed with talent and playing at home. Its not atypical for the USMNT to be playing on US soil but to not have “home field” advantage in many cases. Due to the large migrant population in the US and the need to play at large stadiums to generate revenue they often times play to crowds that aren’t even 50-50 in our favor. That will change during the WC. They should have solid US fan attendance and not grouped with any teams with overly large presence in the US,. The issue for the US has been the opposite of what makes Australia so good. They have a tendency to play to a level less than the sum of their parts. This was especially prevalent during CONCACAF qualifying there the US only finished 4th. However you need to look no further than the FIFA window last November where we beat group mate Paraguay, then demolished the #17 team in the World, Uruguay 5-1. Nobody saw that coming. So the pieces are there, now its up to Poch and the players to put it all together and show up big time on the home world stage.

Now before my overall group prediction lets look at the 3 US matches.

US v Paraguay (June 12th, SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles)

Being the first match, coming out strong is important. Paraguay is going to concede possession to the US. Don’t be surprised if we have a 65-35% possession advantage. And expect that the US will have more shots than Paraguay,  The outcome of this game will boil down to a couple of keys.

• Can the US finish their shots. Winning the game only counts on the scoreboard.  Expected goals (xG) is a telling stat, but that’s all it is, a stat.
• Does the defense stay home enough or recover fast enough to not get beat by a counter. And if they do get beat, can the US keeper come of with that one big time save?

Prediction – US wins 2-1.

US vs Australia (June 19th, Lumen Field, Seatte)

The second group stage match is oftentimes the most important one. If a team comes out poorly in the first match then they almost certainly need a result in the second one. If they come out strong in the first match they can pretty much assure advancement with a result in the second match giving them the ability to rest or try different tactics and player combinations in matchday 3. But in this WC, this is the most important match for a personal reason. Yours truly will be sitting in the stands! A life long dream come true.  This match will go much like the first match. The US is the better side but they must play like it. The Aussies will not sit back quite as much as Paraguay so this could be an exciting back and forth match. Keys for us here:

• Control the midfield. Make decisive penetrating passes to Balogun and Pulisic to work for shots inside the area.
• Attacking play combinations on the wings. Robinson and Pulisic on the left side and Weah/Tillman and Dest/Freeman on the right side. Get behind the Australian defense and we win this game.
• Solid defending on set pieces. Richards and whomever he is paired with in the back.

Prediction – US wins 1-0.

US vs Turkiye (June 25th, SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles)

Clearly the marque matchup of the group. There is a strong chance that both teams will have assured advancement so this match could be less exciting than had it been the first match of the group. You usually want to win your group but in a potential situation like this that may not be the priority, If both teams are advancing then:

• Rotation to maintaining player fitness and eliminate any card accumulation issues will be a prime consideration.
• Winning the group will give the winner a 3rd place group finisher in the first knockout round. But the bracket is set such that winning Group D then your first knockout match leads to a likely meeting with Belgium. Finishing second would give you a tougher first knockout stage match but potentially an easier next knockout match.

Now if one team must get a result then I expect this match to be a slugfest. The team needing a result will attack relentlessly while the team already advanced is likely to rotate heavily and bunker and hope to withstand the pressure.

Now here’s where it gets really interesting. If both teams need a result then this will be a chess match. No team wanting to make a fatal mistake so only probing when they have clear advantage in numbers but not overcommitting to lose defensive shape. All while keeping an eye on the score board to see how the Australia vs Paraguay match is going.

Prediction – I think this has draw written all over it.

So bottom line time for Group D.

Prediction – US wins the group with Turkiey taking second. Australia and Paraguay match is key to which one of them advances out of 3rd place.

If this transpires then the US wins it first knockout match and setups up a rematch with Belgium.

This will be closer than the last time around!