81 Down, 81 To Go

The Baltimore Orioles reached the mid-point of their 2026 season yesterday when they suffered a 5-1 loss against the Angels last night.

With the loss, the O’s are 38-43, putting them on-pace to win 76 games this year.

Some thoughts on what we’ve seen through the initial 81 games, and what awaits over the next 81.

Hasn’t Been Fun, But Not Dead Yet

The first half has been a difficult watch for Orioles fans.

Not just because they are 5 games under .500, but because the mediocrity seen so far this year is seen as a continuation of failed expectations which have plagued the O’s since the second half of the ’24 season.

They are in 4th place in the American League East, 10.5 games back of division leading New York.

That’s a big enough deficit to believe a division title is likely out of reach; and thus can be forgotten about at this point.

But at 2 games out of the 3rd Wild Card, and only 3.5 games back of the 2nd Wild Card; obtaining a playoff spot remains a reasonable goal.

Certainly one of the most significant reasons that we can still envision a run to the post-season as possible is because only the Division leaders and first two Wild Cards are at or above .500 currently in the American League.

Still, while the O’s have yet to play well for any extended stretch, they’ve done an admirable job of not being knocked out either.
There have been a couple of times the team was teetering, but they’ve been able to avoid complete disaster.

What’s It Going To Take?

The two teams which ultimately claim the 2nd and 3rd Wild Card spots in the American League will probably win between 85 and 90 games.

To finish with 85 wins, the O’s would have to go 47-34 the rest of the way.  That would be a .580 winning percentage over the next 81.
To finish with 90 wins, the O’s would have to go 52-29 the rest of the way. That would be a .642 winning percentage over the next 81.

There are only 4 teams in baseball right now that have a winning percentage at or above .580.

After the All-Star break in ’24, the O’s were .500 down the stretch.
Last year they they finished with 75 wins.
As we said above, their on-pace for 76 wins here in ’26.

Clearly they’ve dug a hole.
And they are in a position where a poor week of play could prove to be too much to overcome.

Mathematically they’re not facing some insurmountable hole.
Are they capable of 47 to 52 wins in these next 81 games?
I think answering that comes down to perspective.

If your perspective is that the O’s are 146-163 in their last 306 games and this is just who they are – that’s understandable.
The end of ’24 was disappointing.  ’25 was a mess.
There are similarities and differences with those rosters and this team.
My take is that I like the talent on the roster currently, and I think they’re pretty well positioned to take off here in the 2nd half.

What Is There To Be Optimistic About?

I’ll answer by asking the inverse, what has gone so right in the 1st half, that we can’t reasonably expect that to continue in the 2nd half?

Rico Garcia has pitched like an All-Star this year.
He might be able to bottle this up and continue this run for a few more months; but what he’s done is so far beyond expectations, it shouldn’t be a surprise if there is regression.

Yennier Cano is having his best year since 2023.
I feel pretty good about his ability to sustain this, but maybe he comes back to Earth some.

I liked Brandon Young as extended rotation depth to begin the year, I wouldn’t have expected him to have made 12 starts so far, and certainly wouldn’t have anticipated him being this good.
If you tell me he’s more likely to be a 5th starter going forward, or fall out of the rotation vs. maintain this current production – I get the argument.

If the answer is these three have been so good, it’s not reasonable to expect them to continue to produce at these levels – that’s off-set by the players we can expect more from.

In ’24, Gunnar Henderson slashed .281 / .364 / .529.   So far this year, he’s slashing .230 / .301 / .429.
Players have off years.  Maybe this will be a fully lost year for Henderson, similar to Ripken Jr’s ’92 after his 2nd MVP season in ’91.
Or maybe Gunnar will shake this first half funk and put up a second half closer to expected levels.

Adley Rutschman is having his best offensive year since ’23. He’s also now on his second IL stint.
Maybe he stays more available in the 2nd half?

The O’s offense has been fairly inconsistent, and not hot for any extended stretch.
Their still 8th overall in Runs Scored, including 3rd overall in the American League.

They’ve got four starters (Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Shane Baz, Young) currently pitching well.
They’ve got reasonable other options in Trey Gibson, Dean Kremer, Cade Povich, and Chris Bassitt (with Kremer, Povich, Bassitt all getting closer to working their way back).

Ryan Helsley has returned to the bullpen.

Blaze Alexander has shored up the defense at 3rd, and been on fire offensively since the calendar turned to May.

Biggest Wild Cards To Obtaining A Wild Card?

A month ago today, Rogers had a 6.96 era.
He’s been able to drop that to 5.30 after his 7 shutout innings in LA vs. the Dodgers Saturday.
He’s been strong in June. If he’s able to sustain this and look the part of a front-end starter for the remainder of the year, obviously that’s transformative to the roster as a whole.

Sam Basallo has had a good start to ’26.
He’s talented enough he could just ‘Hulk’ out the rest of this year.

How about Jackson Holliday?
The 22 year old 2nd baseman has a .674 OPS in his first 85 ab’s this year (.690 last year).
Maybe he’s not ready to be more than this.
Maybe he really emerges in the 2nd half and breaks out?

Biggest Questions? 

• Kyle Bradish has been strong the last couple of turns. Will he hit a wall at some point after not pitching much the last two years?
• There are 32 games between now and the August 3rd MLB Trade Deadline. If the O’s are at-least 16-16 in this stretch, will O’s GM Mike Elias look to move some of the current Top 10 Minor League prospects for help to the Major League roster?  At the minimum, it seems likely the O’s bullpen will need to obtain a high leverage reliever.
• Again, I think Rogers is the biggest Wild Card for the current roster. If he can match this last month going forward, that’s the front-end starter production the O’s need. He probably has to continue to ascend if the O’s are going to like their post-season chances as the Deadline. If for some reason he falls off, but the O’s still like their overall position – would Elias be able to obtain a starting pitcher of note?
• Dylan Beavers is getting closer to return.  When he does, how does playing time sort out between himself, Colton Cowser, and Leody Taveras?
• What does the next 5 weeks look like for Andrew Kittredge, Keegan Akin, and Tyler Wells?  Helsley’s return should help the pen. As should the rotation improving in-front of them. We talked above that maybe we see Garcia, and Cano fall back a bit. O’s need this Kittridge, Akin, Wells trio to help.  Wells has struggled vs. RHH, but has yet to allow a run (7.1 innings) here in June.

 

The Alternative

I’ve struck a fairly positive tone here given that the O’s are 5 under .500, and 17 under for the last 306 games.

I think the O’s are in a good position to take off, but as I also said above; they are also in a position were another poor week could bury them.

So, if they continue to be middling or things go completely off the rails between now and the Trade Deadline, what happens then?

The biggest question would be what do you do with Rutschman?  This is the best he’s looked offensively in sometime.
Assuming this latest IL stint (concussion) is more precautionary vs. serious; he’ll be back soon.
This version of Adley is felt when he’s not in the lineup.
He’s under team control through the ’27 season.
You’d get more for him now with a 1.3 years of team control vs. trading him this off-season, or next year.
You could a build a winning 2027 team without Rutschman, but most people would probably think the O’s were waiving the white flag on ’27 if he’s moved this August.
You could of course bring him back for ’27, but again, you’d get less if you attempted to trade him later.

In a scenario where the O’s wind-up trading Rutschman this year, you’d have to think that Taylor Ward, and Rogers (both Free Agents to be) would be moved.

Helsley is under contract through ’27. If there is a sell-off, maybe he goes? Probably not.

Garcia would be moved.  Honestly I think there is a chance Garcia is traded even if the O’s believe their a contender come August.

If Kremer or Bassitt get back and are competitive, either of them could be attractive to someone. Bassitt a Free Agent to be.  Kremer under contract through ’27.

If the O’s are not feeling good about where they are at the Deadline, then Henderson likely hasn’t turned things around.
If he hasn’t, then there wouldn’t be any thought of trading him then with perceived value ‘down.’
You still have him under control through ’28.  At the minimum, the O’s would look to retool for ’27, hoping for a Gunnar rebounding leading to either ’27 contention, or his value swinging back-up for a trade.
On the other-hand, his ability is recognized by everyone. If he was made available now, with 2.3 years of team control remaining, there would be plenty of suitors making big offers.

If the O’s get to August, and trading off Rutschman was a legitimate option, Orioles Owner David Rubenstein would likely be forced into some type of public pronouncement regarding Elias.
Presumably Ownership wouldn’t sign-off on Elias moving Rutschman if Elias wasn’t going to be at the helm for the ’27 season.
And if the O’s are in a selling position at the Deadline, Elias’ status going forward will need to be clarified to the public.

The MLB Draft

The 2026 MLB Draft is July 11th – July 13th.

In many Mock Drafts, the O’s continue to be connected with Georgia Tech CF Drew Burress with the 7th overall pick.

So What Happens Here In The 2nd Half?

The Yankees are 10 games ahead of the O’s.  NY is 4th overall in runs scored, and 2nd in ERA.
If you want to say NY has proven to be a better team, that’s fair.

I don’t see anyone else that’s definitively more talented than the O’s in the AL.

I respect the other divisional foes – Tampa and Toronto –  but the Rays have little power, and the Jays have a below offense overall.

Seattle can pitch, the Athletics can hit.

Chicago, Cleveland, Minnesota, Texas, Houston all have their own strengths and weaknesses.

A couple of these teams will kick things into a higher gear, and to be fair to the Rays; they’re already 10 games over .500.

But put the O’s roster up against any of them, and I don’t think it’s orange colored glasses to say the O’s are as talented as any of them.

As I’ve said, I think they’re pretty well positioned to make a run.

Now we will see if they can find their stride.