Early Thoughts On 2027 And An Alternative

It’s hard to be disappointed in an undesirable outcome if you didn’t have preexisting expectations which were not met.

I’m disappointed in the 2026 Baltimore Orioles to-date, because I did have expectations for this season.

When Opening Day arrived, I thought they looked like a 90 win team.

I expected a playoff ticket to be punched, and once there; you see what happens.

I hoped Jordan Westburg would return to start June, and thought he’d be missed in the time he was unavailable.
I thought too much was riding on Trevor Rogers again being a front-end starter as he had been over 18 starts in ’25; but I believed things would work with the roster overall.

I didn’t like the defense, but felt the lineup would be productive power wise, and the rotation had solid usable depth.

I wasn’t sure what to expect from 1st year Manager Craig Albernaz, but my default position was (and remains) that MLB Manager’s in 2026 have fairly minimal impact.
If anything, I thought if the team rebounded like I expected they would – he’d get a large portion of the credit.
I did think maybe he’d help the team with day-to-day focus, and details.
Mainly I thought after having only two players reach 90+ games played in ’25, that the roster would look more locked in with improved health and availability.

The Orioles have not been an enjoyable product to watch this year, but I’ve generally maintained my optimism for the roster.
I last wrote about the O’s a week ago, when they had reached the true half-way point of their ’26 season.
Going into play that night, they were 38-43, 2 games out of the 3rd Wild Card, and 3.5 games out of the 2nd Wild Card.

Part of the optimism I still had last week was tied to the rest of the American League.
A post-season run was still well within reach, if the O’s could just put some consistently positive play together over the remainder of their season.
After winning today, they’ve gone 2-5 overall since then.
Now 40-48 overall, they’ve fallen back to 8 games under .500, and are 5 games out of the 3rd Wild Card.

The O’s have been a hard watch, but I genuinely still like / believe in large swaths of the roster.
Which is again part of the reason the year has been disappointing.
I think the results should be better than they are given what exists.
Stubbornly, I still believe the roster compares pretty favorably talent wise to the rest of the American League sans New York.
At 38-43 last week, I still thought the O’s were capable of a 2nd half run (getting to the 85-90 overall wins they’d need to be in the playoff hunt).
I did say they had dug a hole.
I did say they were a bad week away from being in an even more precarious position.
I did say they’d have to play .580+ ball the rest of the year (at that point, with 81 games remaining) to finish in a possible playoff position, and that only 4 MLB teams were currently at that level.

Now?
At 40-48, they’ve had that bad week, and their backs are up against the proverbial wall even more.
At this point, they’re wearing the mask, and the firing squad is aiming at them.
They’ve got very minimal margin for error.
To get to 85 wins, they’d have to go 45-29.  (A .608 winning percentage over the last 74 games.)
To get to 90 wins, they’d have to go 50-24.  (A .676 winning percentage over the last 74 games.)

There are currently two teams in MLB with a winning percentage over .600.

Do I think the O’s are going to win 45-50 of their last 74 games?
No, I can’t say I do.
I think there is enough talent on the roster, that they’re capable of a scorching stretch; but capable of and believing they will are two different things.
The Orioles simply haven’t done anything collectively to believe the year will turn on a dime.
It would certainly be a pleasant surprise.

Acknowledging that, allows me to watch the remaining O’s games this season in a different light.
With no remaining expectations for this year, my attention turns more towards what comes next?

Before looking ahead, some thoughts on why this year hasn’t gone to plan.

I believe talent typically wins out.
Each year there are reasonable ranges of expectations for players and teams.
The greater history you have, the more detail you have; those ranges shrink.
When you have results outside of standard deviation points, you have the outlier seasons which make watching sports worthwhile.
If every result came down to a cold calculation, and there was never a surprise, there wouldn’t be a whole lot to watch.

Each year does bring surprises.
Some welcomed, some not.

The ’26 Orioles are on-pace to win 74 games.
My expectation was 90 wins.
Somewhere between 78 wins and 93 wins would have felt to me like reasonable expectations for the O’s on Opening Day.
I was on the high-side, but I saw a path where things could go wrong, and they could finish slightly under .500.
Also saw a path where they could be better than I expected.

74 wins is outside of that expected range to me, which forces other questions.
Is it a complete over-estimation of the talent by me?  That’s possible.
Is the baseline talent good enough, but there are other things going on, and if so, what would those other things be?

Not enough leadership?
Fractions within the clubhouse?
Players unhappy with their contracts?
A team of complacent, mental weaklings?
A lack of self-discipline?

There are lots of things outside of talent, which matter in life and sports.
Other aspects which determine why people and players succeed or fail.
Drive, intensity, work ethic.  An ability to work with others.  Hustle, desire, competitiveness, enthusiasm, grit.

If you told me you could choose between two players of near comparable skill, and Player A apparently had all of the intrinsic gifs you would seek in an individual, while Player B had known character questions; sure sign-me for Player A, even if Player B grades as the slightly better talent.

But while there are tests, and certainly human interactions, which can help you determine how someone grades with soft-skills, aptitude, and motivation; those results aren’t readily available on FanGraphs, and Baseball Savant.

As such, I’m uncomfortable attributing character grades to individuals I don’t know.
There can be glimpses of things that show through the TV, and make me like a player more.
BJ Surhoff had an intense focus, readily apparent to all, and you didn’t have to be holding a microphone in-front of him to know that.
Nolan Reimold busted has ass down the line everytime.
Adam Jones went cleats up into 2nd base, looking to wipe out a potential double play.

Those things stood out.

What did we know about Nick Markakis?
He showed up ready to play most days, so we appreciated the work-ethic and consistency.
He had a reputation of being a clubhouse leader, but not because he was boiling over with intensity, or known for fiery speeches.
Teammates loved him apparently because he posted up.

It helped that the O’s were good around him.
Otherwise, more might have been asked of him.
Go back to 1988 and how Eddie Murray was covered locally at that point.
Murray’s on-track then for a Hall-of-Fame career, but the O’s had gone from ’83 World Champions, to the worst team in baseball in ’88.
The steady, consistent, quiet approach that was respected and revered in ’83, is now viewed as stand-offish and a character flaw 5 years later.
Did Eddie change?
Or was he a convenient scape-goat and target for the Media and an angry fanbase?

Again, my point here being there are things outside of talent which matter to the success of teams and players, but grading those things are difficult.
There are things we as fans can observe from our seats and couches, but most of our arm-chair analysis of such is circumstantial at-best.

Could there be existing issues outside of talent, which are impacting the O’s team performance?
Maybe?
I’m certainly not in a position to judge that.

Let’s say you are world’s preeminent Sports Psychologist, and the O’s have brought you into the clubhouse to evaluate.
And you’ve determined there are issues outside the field, which are impacting play on-the-field.

Okay.

Now what?

Can you quantify that?
How much of the O’s performance would you attribute to those issues?

Again, I can’t answer that.
I don’t know that those issues exist, and if they do – I certainly don’t know how much weight to give it.

Call me crazy, but I think the O’s primary issues are:

• Their 22nd in ERA.
• Their not as brutal defensively as some say, but it’s being kind to say defense isn’t a strength.
• Nor is their baserunning.
• The bullpen is missing at-least one needed high-leverage arm.
• Their best player is having a down year.
• The rotation needed Rogers and Kyle Bradish to be consistent front-end starters; and they’ve got 13 Quality Starts in 32 outings.

If you want to point to character questions, I don’t know what do with that.

If you want to discuss the talent just not being good enough, that’s a discussion we can have.

Sometimes, players and teams over or underachieve expected results, and I’m not sure there is always a great reason for it.

Gunnar Henderson is one of the most talented players in baseball, and he’s having a pretty pedestrian season.
Are there deep underlying reasons for that, or is that just baseball?
Why does Cal Ripken Jr. have his 2nd MVP season in ’91, and follow that with a very mediocre ’92?
I’d suggest the answer is that baseball is a game predicated around failure and adjustments.
More often than not, you are going to fail.
Sometimes even the best aren’t able to make the necessary in-season changes.

Sometimes things just don’t work out.

If you determine there are talent, or character issues with the roster, and believe those issues need to be reconciled with needed wholesale change; have at-it.

My determination is that the talent is largely good enough to win with.
I’m not in position to judge if there are character questions.
And if there are character questions, I don’t know how to quantify.
As such, I’d be largely inclined to run things back with tweaks vs. larger changes.
More cosmetic changes (paint job) vs. demo work.

Early Thoughts On 2027

• If I’m Orioles Owner David Rubenstein, the first determination to make is about Orioles GM Mike Elias. Is he the right fit for the job or is he not?  The majority of Birdland would probably vote no right now. I’d vote yes. The only vote that really matters is Rubenstein’s.  If Elias is going to be back for ’27, the O’s should announce that and take that ambiguity off the table.
• What is the organization doing with Adley Rutschman? The O’s are 8 games under .500 with 24 games until the Trade Deadline. Rutschman is under team-control through ’27. If the O’s are seemingly out of Wild Card contention at the deadline, there has to be consideration to trading Rutschman. He’s more valuable to another team (and thus should extract more return) with 1.2 years of team control remaining vs. being traded this off-season, or sometime next year. Adley is 28 years old.  He’s been on the IL twice this year. When he has been available, he’s having his best offensive year since ’23.  If the O’s didn’t trade him, and just kept him under control through next year, he hits the Free Agent market in October 2027 at age 29, preparing to turn 30 in February ’28.  I like having him and Samuel Basallo together. I’d think Rutschman would also enjoy having someone he can split time with behind the plate vs. a normal backup.  I’m sure Rutschman would like a 7-8 year deal which would take him to his late 30s.  I’m sure the O’s would prefer a 5 year deal. Rutschman is a good, not-transformative player. With Basallo, I’m more open to a Rutschman extension than I have been previously.  An in-season deal might not be realistic. Rutschman might also want to get to Free Agency and the open market vs. doing any deal.  If I’m the O’s, I’m pushing extremely hard right now for an answer. “We’d like to find a deal that works for both sides, is that possible?”  If he’s not open to doing a deal now, or if what he would want is outside of what you are prepared to do; then trading him by August 3rd needs to be in-play.  That doesn’t mean I would definitely trade him though. He’d bring back more if traded now vs. the off-season, or next year sometime; but I don’t think he’d bring back a huge return regardless.  If you make him available, and you love the offer, you can pull the trigger.  If you don’t like the offer, you live with that, and have him available for next year.
• Rogers is a Free Agent after the year. Free Agent pitching is expensive obviously. He showed an ability to pitch like an ace over 18 starts last year. That upside means something. So does the lack of consistency in his career. Can both sides work an extension at 3rd to 5th starter prices? I’d sign up for that. Id pay for him to be a 3rd starter – maybe not expect him to be that – but would have some reasonable hope he could be more than that. If he isn’t traded in season and pitches we’ll during the remainder of the year, a deal probably becomes unlikely unless he wants to remain because of a comfort factor. If the O’s believe in him, they should pursue a deal now.  Make him a reasonable offer now. Make him take it or turn it down.  If he turns it down, then you probably have to trade him at the Deadline and get something back for him.  An extension is ideal for the O’s. If he’s gone, you are going to want to replace him in the rotation. Would be costly in dollars (Free Agency) or trade (player capital).  Is an extension ideal for Rogers?  Would someone give him a deal for more than 3rd starter Free Agent money?  Maybe?  After his year last year, and turning things around over the last month here in ’26; is he comfortable in an O’s uniform?
• So, when I’m starting to think about ’27, I’m starting with Elias, Rutschman, and Rogers.  It seems to me you’d need answers with those items before turning attention to anything else.
• Once you’ve answered those questions, you can decide what do with Taylor Ward. Like Rogers, he’s a Free Agent after this year. If you’ve moved Rutschman, and Rogers, then you probably move Ward as well. If you’ve found deals (again, realize in-season deals with either Rutschman or Rogers is unlikely, and probably highly unlikely to do deals with both) with Rutschman and/or Rogers, I might be inclined to also try and find an extension for Ward now too. A Ward extension would be a 1 or 2 year deal. I’d look at him as an average everyday regular.  You could try and upgrade the position. We will look at possible Free Agents later. Maybe someone catches the eye. You could let him go, and there are multiple ways you could make up for his current production. Hell, you could just bring back Leody Taveras for another year, and have a Taveras, Cowser, Beavers OF penciled in for ’27.  But he played 156, and 157 games the last two years with the Angels, and has played nearly everyday with the O’s. The homers are drastically lower than anticipated, but the on-base % is way higher than expected. He’s a legitimate everyday player, despite his defense being a bit below average in LF. He’s also turning 33 in December which is part of why an extension would be a 1 or 2 year deal.  I’m not in love with Ward, but he feels like another adult in the room.
• Blaze Alexander has been my favorite Oriole to watch the last few months. I also remain a big fan of Westburg, and will be anxious for him to get back next year; and hopeful he can put his injuries behind him. If Westburg stays available, and claims 3rd, then Alexander is either a Super Utility guy, or potentially could end up competing for time with Jackson Holliday at 2nd.
• If Rutschman is back for ’27, you’ve got him and Basallo holding down C and DH.   Obviously Pete Alonso has 1st for sometime.  Westburg staying healthy enough to hold down 3rd will remain a question. But if he does, and Rutschman is back; it becomes harder to find potential ab’s for Coby Mayo.  I would think the O’s would want Westburg to prove his health before moving Mayo.  Mayo is never going to be a good 3rd baseman imo, but I do think he made strides towards serviceable this year.  And despite the sub .200 batting average, we’ve seen some glimpses of the bat.  The power plays obviously. He needs to commit to going to RF more.  I thought he looked extremely stiff in his ’25 audition. He looks like he has better flexibility and plate coverage this year; but the results have been inconsistent. He’s 25 in December. I think there is too much offensive potential (and team control) to give him away until you feel comfortable about Westburg’s health, but also think he’s looking at needing injuries in-front of him to stay an Oriole and find regular playing time in ’27.
• Cowser’s April was below what you’d expect from him. His May better than you’d expect. And is June was more in the ballpark. He’s slashing .227 / .319 / .373 right now.  My July 1st guess is that he’ll be one of the starting OF’s on Opening Day 2027, but he’d really benefit from finishing strong these next 3 months. How we feel about Cowser as an everyday player at the end of ’26, will certainly impact some of our perceptions on what’s possible for the ’27 O’s.   Similar take for Beavers.  The O’s (Albernaz) has said he believes Beavers can be a plus fielder.  Would like to see more of that the next few months.
• Basallo looks like will be an offensive force.  The arm is strong defensively.  Even as a part-time catcher (if Rutschman is back), he needs to refine his work behind the plate.  If Rutschman is traded, one of my concerns would be how will Basallo’s offense be impacted if he’s forced to catch more?
• After 14 combined starts during ’24 and ’25, Bradish has not consistently reached his ’23 levels (4th in the AL Cy Young balloting). His command has been an issue.  But we’ve also seen numerous games where he looked like his old-self. The optimistic take on the year so far is that he’s stayed available to make 17 starts.  Can he sprint to the finish?
• Holliday is 23 in December.  Last year was his first full season in the bigs. He had improvement in ’25 vs. his ’24 big league audition. This year started with the hamate bone surgery. Right now, he’s batting .196 through his first 102 ab’s of ’26.  He was the 1st overall selection of the ’22 Draft, and became the top overall consensus player in the Minors. I don’t need or expect the 22 year old to be a finished product. I do expect a player of his pedigree to start being more consistently additive than we’ve seen so far. Do think he’s getting closer to average defensively at 2nd. Better around the bag, movements more natural. I really disliked that the O’s were giving him time at 3rd in the Minors on his rehab. As if he needed something else to worry about.  Again, you start thinking about next year, part of that thinking will be determined by how Holliday finishes ’26.
• Shane Baz, Dean Kremer, and Brandon Young figure to make up 3/5s of the O’s ’27 Opening Day rotation.
• Ryan Helsley joined the O’s on a 2 year contract.  Albernaz said after the game today, he’s dealing with elbow discomfort and will get further testing. Not to jump to conclusions, but that feels a bit ominous. Hopefully he’s okay. He already missed roughly 6 weeks of this season.  Felix Bautista is hoping to rejoin the O’s in September.  A dream scenario would be having both healthy, available, and performing next year. The odds of that don’t feel great.
• Here is MLBTR’s Top 10 Free Agent’s To Be Power Rankings. Michael King, Casey Mize, Adrian Morejon, and Ian Happ all look like guys the O’s could possibly pursue.  A larger look at the Free Agent class is here. 
• Going back to Ward, would you prefer a larger investment in someone like Happ?  Cowser and Beavers in CF, and RF; with Enrique Bradfield and Nate George possible internal candidates to push for time at some point in ’27? Bradfield played 108 MiL games in ’24, followed by 76 last year. So far this year, he’s played just 40. There are no questions about his glove and speed. There are plenty of questions about his bat. Now you have to question his ability to stay on the field. Even if you wanted to hand CF to him for his glove, you’d be hard pressed do so, given his inability to stay available.

Alternative Scenario

Let’s say Rubenstein wants to move on from Elias, who are possible alternatives?

Jon Daniels – Former Rangers General Manager.  Currently a Senior Advisor with Tampa Bay.

Kim Ng – Former Marlins General Manager.  Currently outside the game entirely.

James Click – Former Astros General Manager.  Now VP of Baseball Strategy with Toronto.

Michael Fishman – Yankees VP / Assistant GM under Brian Cashman.

Amiel Sawdaye – Diamondbacks SVP / Assistant GM under Mike Hazen.  Baltimore native, Graduate of Pikesville High, and University of Maryland.

Cal Ripken Jr. –  The HOF, has an Ownership share, and is doing some Player Development work.  Obviously the name would sell, and the Ripken Way still carries weight. Especially with the current fundamental issues with the ML team.  Feels like Ripken would need to surround himself with a lot of Front Office experience.