The 6PM August 3rd Trade Deadline is fast approaching, and there is still ambiguity of where and what the Orioles are.
2.5 games out of the 3rd Wild Card, you can argue that the O’s have a viable path to reaching the post-season. FanGraphs gives the O’s a 21.2% chance of making the playoffs currently.
Conversely, with the O’s still 4 games under .500, and a number of on-going injuries; you could argue that there isn’t much reason to believe the remaining 53 games will be demonstrably different than the first 109.
There are 6 games between now and the Deadline next week. Every game matters at this point.
The Atlanta Series
Against the NL East leading Braves, the O’s played in three 1 run games this last weekend. With the bases loaded and none out in the 10th yesterday, the O’s were on the precipice of a series win. Alas, things went awry. So close, so far away.
It was a competitive series against a quality team, but it was frustrating to not get the series W.
Going by current records, the O’s have one of / if not the strongest remaining schedule.
So if the Birds reach the post-season, they’ll have earned their way there by playing well against quality teams the rest of the way.
There is a reminder there that the O’s didn’t do enough earlier on, when the schedule was a bit lighter.
With the remaining schedule dwindling daily, losses that were possibly wins feel especially compounded at this point of the season.
Unlike football, there isn’t a lot of time in baseball to celebrate wins or tough losses.
There isn’t a week in-between games, there is another game the next day.
In that sense, yesterday is over, and the O’s are on to Detroit, and I agree with that mentality.
Realistically though, the Orioles have to play at a consistently elevated level these last 53 games.
If a win is there for the taking, they can not squander those opportunities.
My only other note from watching the Braves for a couple of days, was that even with Atlanta making a couple of unusual unforced errors; that’s a quality defensive team that is typically not going to force their pitching staff into recording extra outs.
Certainly a juxtaposition with the O’s when looking at how the Orioles defense regularly gives opposing offences additional opportunities.
The O’s are 12th overall in Runs Scored, and 12th overall in ERA.
Does this feel surprising to you?
Both numbers continue to trend upwards for the O’s.
Overall run differential continues to trend towards even.
Taken together, I think the O’s are generally a bit better than how most O’s fan would grade them – but the defensive liabilities are limiting.
Loved that deal, and was frankly surprised it wasn’t significantly higher. Kyle has had a solid year, and he’s been strong the last month (2.96 era, 24.1 ip), but he hasn’t been overly sharp overall after missing all but 14 total starts over 2024 and 2025. There have been control issues, which can often be the last thing to come back after surgery. Still, I would have expected the soon to be 30 year old to get a larger deal in an extension. These total dollars are very workable. Already I think it looks like a steal. If he finishes strong, and continues to look more-and-more like his 2023 self, than the contract just looks that much better.
This deal, the Basallo extension, the Alonso signing, the Baz extension; it’s been fun to see the O’s locking up multiple pieces.
Trevor Rogers
Rogers is set to hit Free Agency after this 2026 season.
Unless the O’s collapse over the next 6 days, it would be surprising to see the O’s trade him by the deadline.
As I’ve said before a few times now, I’d pay for him to be a 3rd starter, and maybe not expect him to be that – but would have some reasonable hope he could be more than that.
If you can get a deal done with him – and the Bradish contract provides a viable framework – then you’ve got the makings of a pretty solid rotation locked in.
He had a 2.05 era over 5 starts in June, and he’s followed that up with a 1.48 era over 4 starts in July.
You can probably expect some up-and-down fluctuations from him going forward, but he’s not yet 29 and he’s very impressive extended stretches last year and this year.
If he were to leave in Free Agency, I have zero expectations of the O’s adding someone with equal or better ceiling.
Brandon Young
Where would the O’s be without Brandon Young?
He started the year as the O’s 8th starter, and he’s 8-2 with a 3.13 era.
Over 97.2 ip, he’s allowed 92 hits, 9 homers, 34 walks, and has 80 k’s.
He’s been remarkably consistent, and he’s one of the primary reasons the O’s can still dream of playing games that matter in October.
Updating The Injuries
Adley Rutschman – The O’s 2026 All-Star rep is on the IL for the 3rd time this season. Per The Baltimore Sun, he was seen throwing the ball Saturday at Camden Yards, but has yet to resume catching the ball. Rutschman played 2 games (catching one) in Houston after the break, and then went on the IL with a wrist injury. Those wrist injuries are usually extended inflammation. My guess is that it didn’t just flair up after the one start catching vs. the Astros. Which makes me wonder if he should have spent the entirety of the All-Star break with no baseball activity? He is eligible to return to action Wednesday July 29th, but that currently doesn’t seem likely.
Sam Basallo – The O’s shutdown Basallo from baseball activities for a few days to let his shoulder calm down. He is eligible to return to the O’s this Friday July 31st, but as with Rutschman – that doesn’t seem likely.
Blaze Alexander – It was reported 10 days ago that there was no time table for Alexander’s return. He was placed on the IL retroactive to July 13th, and his non-displaced fracture typically takes 6-8 weeks to heal.
Ryan Helsley – Was transferred form the 15 day IL to the 60 day IL 8 days ago. After being placed on the IL, the soonest he could return is August 29th.
Definitely a different looking O’s lineup without Rutschman and Basallo.
The O’s really needed Helsley to be an All-Star caliber closer this year, and he’s largely been unavailable.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
CES has given the lineup a boost in his first 7 games with the Orioles.
Encarnacion-Strand started the 2024 season as Cincinnati’s 1st baseman. 2024 and 2025 was marked by injuries and non-performance.
This year he has a productive 274 ab’s at the AAA level before his promotion to Baltimore. We wondered who would step-up when Alexander went down, and at-least temporarily Encarnacion-Strand has answered the call.
Dylan Beavers
Beavers is 13 for 44 so far in July, slashing .295 / .380 / .364. The game winner Saturday was nice. When he’s going like this, he puts up a bunch of good ab’s which is fun to watch. Doesn’t overswing, finds contact. There are definitely things to like about his game.
Tyler O’Neill
TON has a .983 OPS in 38 July ab’s, with 4 of his 6 homers on the year coming this month. People might not like seeing his name in the lineup, but have to ride that hot hand.
Tyler Wells
For the season, Wells has appeared in 41 games.
Have to feel good for him, after he was limited to just 7 combined starts over 2024 and 2025.
In those 41 games, he has a 2.82 era, with 51 innings, 53 hits, 12 bb’s, and 53 k’s.
Over the last 30 days, he’s 1-1, with a 1.88 era, and 3 saves.
His Baseball Savant page shows a lot of red.
Up Next?
The O’s are beginning a 3 game series in Detroit.
The O’s are 2.5 games back of the 3rd Wild Card (Cleveland), and the Tigers are 3.5 games back of the Guardians.
Detroit is 6-4 over their last 10, but has lost their last 2.
The Tigers are 21st in Runs Scored, 22nd in On-Base %, and 18th in Slugging.
Detroit is 5th overall in ERA.
The scheduled pitching match-ups are:
Bradish vs. Montero
Kremer vs. Melton
&
Rogers vs. Skubal
The trade rumors around Skubal are getting a lot of attention.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.