2026 NFL: Previewing Week 2

Week 1 gave us the highest-scoring opener in league history, the preseason favorite losing by 20 on the other side of the world, and the biggest underdog on the board winning outright on the road. Ten teams scored 30 or more points on Sunday, the first time that has happened since 2002 and only the third time on an opening Sunday since the merger. Nine of them came in the early window alone. The Jets and Giants both won in the same opening weekend for the first time since 2009. The Browns lost again, and are now 3-24-1 in Week 1 since returning to the league in 1999. Below are quick hits on everything we saw, an updated set of power rankings, and a look at Week 2.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Our picks going forward are straight winners. We’ll show the line and the total, but we’re only formally picking the game.

Week 1 Quick Hits

Seahawks 13 Patriots 10 – Seattle raised the banner and needed three fourth-quarter interceptions to beat the team it beat in February. Sam Darnold hurt his hip on the fifth play of the game on a Dre’Mont Jones sack; Mike Macdonald said initial tests ruled out a break. Drew Lock, who threw three passes all of last season and had not taken a first-team rep in practice that week, went 5 of 7 for 89 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter. He hit reigning Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 45 on fourth-and-1 to tie it after a Nehemiah Pritchett interception, and Jason Myers won it from 26 after Julian Love picked Maye on the next drive. Josh Jobe’s toe-tap in the end zone ended it. Drake Maye was 17 of 22 through three quarters, then threw three picks in the fourth, the first a deep ball to a double-covered Romeo Doubs with a checkdown open in the flat. Maye called it unacceptable. Christian Gonzalez blanked Smith-Njigba across ten coverage matchups. New England ran 31 times for 109 yards, with Rhamondre Stevenson and Corey Kiner combining for 62 yards of which 59 came after contact, and Maye was pressured on 38.1% of his dropbacks while taking only three sacks. A.J. Brown left in the third quarter with a high ankle sprain.

49ers 27 Rams 7 – The preseason favorite opened 10,000 miles from home in front of 100,021 at the Melbourne Cricket Ground and got run off it. San Francisco scored the final 24 points. Brock Purdy threw for 205 and three touchdowns — Demarcus Robinson on a 39-yard post, Mike Evans over new Rams corner Jaylen Watson, and Deebo Samuel to cap a 99-yard drive. Raheem Morris, coordinating against the team he coached for, held the NFL’s best 2025 offense to 290 yards, allowed the third-lowest EPA per play of the week, and stopped Matthew Stafford on a fourth-down sneak from the San Francisco 1. Stafford went 15 of 25 for 155 and said they had two good drives and that it started with him. Fred Warner and Nick Bosa both returned from long absences and were immediately themselves; Bosa hit Stafford on the first snap of the game. The Rams did not sack Purdy once. Myles Garrett recorded no tackles and three total pressures across 39 defensive snaps; he acknowledged afterward that his knee has him at less than full health, and has since had arthroscopic surgery and gone on injured reserve for at least four games. The Rams’ next four opponents are the Giants, Broncos, Eagles and Bills. San Francisco arrived in Australia a week early. The Rams landed roughly a day before a 10:35 a.m. kickoff, part of a years-in-the-making plan to keep the players on California time — the team flew 32 hours inside three days — and Sean McVay said he doesn’t believe the travel plan is the reason they lost.

Bills 36 Texans 31 – The best game on the early slate delivered. Josh Allen went 20 of 29 for 334 with two touchdowns and ran for two more, including the 34-yard winner to Joshua Palmer on third-and-11 inside the final two minutes — one snap after Kamari Lassiter dropped an interception in the end zone that would have ended it. Allen had a 28.2 Total QBR against Houston over the past two seasons and a league-best 72.8 against everyone else. Matt Burke’s defense played zone on 24 of Allen’s 32 dropbacks after playing man nearly 39 percent of the time in Houston’s two previous wins over Buffalo, and Allen posted a passer rating over 129 against both. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. did not sack him once. The Joe Brady wrinkle was Dalton Kincaid, who ran routes on 71% of Allen’s dropbacks after averaging 58% from 2023 to 2025 and caught five passes for a career-high 130 yards with catches of 35, 38 and 40. DJ Moore went for 100 and a score in his Buffalo debut and drew a 46-yard pass interference. Buffalo ran 13 personnel on 36.8% of snaps; the Rams led the NFL last season at 30.4%. Buffalo averaged 7.9 yards a play, the most Houston has allowed since DeMeco Ryans was hired in 2023, and it was the first time a Ryans defense gave up 400 yards since late in the 2024 season. Houston ran 73 plays to Buffalo’s 52 and held the ball for 36:17 and lost anyway. David Montgomery scored three times on 79 scrimmage yards. C.J. Stroud threw for 274 and two scores with no interceptions but lost two fumbles, both on Greg Rousseau strip-sacks, the second against a three-man rush at the Buffalo 28 in the closing seconds. Houston’s defense led the league in yards allowed last season and gave up its most points since December 2023.

Ravens 41 Colts 23 – Baltimore outgained Indianapolis 506 to 251 and led 31-13 at the half, the fifth time in franchise history they have scored 31 before the break. Derrick Henry ran 24 times for 144 and three touchdowns at 32, moving to 125 career rushing scores — third all-time behind Emmitt Smith and LaDainian Tomlinson — and past Marvin Harrison into ninth in total touchdowns. Lamar Jackson went 17 of 25 for 324 with a touchdown through the air and another on the ground, and escaped a sack near midfield to scramble for a first down on third-and-16 in the first quarter. Roquan Smith intercepted Daniel Jones on the Colts’ second drive and Marlon Humphrey stripped Jonathan Taylor on the next one; Baltimore converted both and led 28-6. Zay Flowers had five catches for 150 and a 54-yard touchdown before pulling up with a hamstring in the second quarter. It was the first time in the franchise’s 31-year history that Baltimore had a 300-yard passer, a 150-yard receiver and a 100-yard rusher in the same game. Jonathan Taylor ran 19 times for 98 and two scores at 5.2 a carry. Declan Doyle, one of seventeen play callers either new to a team or doing the job for the first time this season, got touchdown drives on four of Baltimore’s first five possessions, and would have had five but for a holding call on center Jovaughn Gwyn that erased a touchdown pass to Ja’Kobi Lane. The Ravens took ten dropbacks from under center, the most Jackson has ever had in a game, and he went 6 of 8 for 114 yards from those looks — 14.3 an attempt with a 116.7 rating — including the 49-yarder to Zay Flowers off a boot. Henry gained 130 of his yards on nineteen under-center carries at 6.8 a pop. It was the first time in three years Indianapolis has given up 500 yards. Daniel Jones, nine months off a torn Achilles, was 19 of 31 for 166 and carried the ball once for four yards. Calais Campbell, 40, made his 260th career start, joining Jim Marshall and Bruce Smith as the only defensive linemen to reach that number.

Bengals 33 Buccaneers 27 – Cincinnati’s rebuilt defense forced four turnovers and had four sacks, and 24 of the 33 points came off Tampa Bay mistakes. Boye Mafe and Bryan Cook, both free-agent additions, each forced and recovered a fumble, and Mafe added a sack. Demetrius Knight Jr. scooped a Baker Mayfield fumble and returned it for a touchdown, Cincinnati’s first scoop-and-score since Sam Hubbard’s 99-yarder in the January 2023 wild card. Three of Tampa’s first four possessions ended in fumbles, all converted into touchdowns. Mayfield, who signed a three-year, $165 million extension this week, put three of them on the ground — two while being sacked, one stretching for extra yardage at the Cincinnati 4 with the Buccaneers about to score — and still finished 23 of 28 for 216 with a rushing touchdown. Joe Burrow was 25 of 35 for 254 and scored on six of seven drives after an opening three-and-out, the exception being a pick-six to rookie Josiah Trotter, who became the first player with a sack and a pick-six in his debut since sacks became an official statistic in 1982. Evan McPherson hit four field goals including a 55 and a 58, the first Bengal with two from 55-plus in a game. Ja’Marr Chase, questionable all week with a knee, drew four targets; Mike Gesicki led the team with seven. Cincinnati led 27-10 early in the third quarter and then stopped, averaging minus-0.19 EPA per play in the second half, second-worst of the week behind New England. The Bengals ran nine plays from under center and did not succeed on any of them.

Jaguars 34 Browns 10 – Trevor Lawrence went 18 of 23 for 245 and four touchdowns with a career-best 150.6 rating, and Jacksonville scored on six of its first seven possessions. The touchdowns went to Parker Washington, Brenton Strange, Jakobi Meyers and rookie Josh Cameron, three of them wide open. Washington, a pending free agent in the middle of contract negotiations, caught the first one diving and flashed a pay-me sign. Deshaun Watson threw an interception on the opening drive of his first start in nearly two years, nearly threw another on the second possession, recovered his own fumble, and was sacked five times. Cleveland went 1 for 8 on third down, took 11 penalties, and failed to score a touchdown on both trips inside the 20. Their only points before a 46-yard Watson-to-Denzel Boston score with 1:52 left came after a 74-yard Raheim Sanders kick return. Watson had been 7-0 in his career against Jacksonville. Lawrence went 10 of 12 for 179 and three scores on throws travelling ten or more yards, and had two tight-window completions all afternoon. New Cleveland coordinator Mike Rutenberg, replacing Jim Schwartz, played zone on 20 of Lawrence’s 25 dropbacks, blitzed three times and generated no quick pressures. Jared Verse did not record a hurry in his Browns debut.

Steelers 20 Falcons 13 – Atlanta’s quarterback question got answered in the worst way available. Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa were both declared out, so Cooper Rush started — a free agent until training camp, with almost no first-team work, reportedly dealing with back spasms the day before. Kevin Stefanski wasn’t going to expose Jack Strand in Week 1, so Atlanta ran an extremely conservative plan and still gave up both Pittsburgh touchdowns off Rush turnovers. T.J. Watt had two sacks and a 35-yard pick-six on a telegraphed dump-off. Pittsburgh also rested him: Watt, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig each played around 40 snaps with Jack Sawyer taking 23, and 37-year-old Cam Heyward played 33 of 61 after leading all NFL defensive linemen in snaps last season. Heyward batted down three passes. Aaron Rodgers was 24 of 40 for 221 and a touchdown to Pat Freiermuth, with DK Metcalf dropping several. Per Next Gen Stats, Rodgers averaged 9.2 air yards per target, his highest as a Steeler, with a 2.95-second time to throw, his third-highest — and Patrick Graham played exclusively zone on Atlanta’s dropbacks after Pittsburgh was man-heavy a year ago. Rush threw two interceptions, and Atlanta managed only two drives all afternoon that gained more than 30 yards. The Falcons were also without both of their intended starting edge rushers — Jalon Walker tore an ACL and is out for the season, and James Pearce Jr. is suspended for the first eight games — which is why Za’Darius Smith, signed less than a month ago at 34 after retiring midway through last season, was the one getting home. He sacked Rodgers twice. Bijan Robinson accounted for 173 of Atlanta’s 238 yards. Kyle Pitts was shut out. Nick Folk, one of the most reliable kickers in the league the past three seasons, missed two. Atlanta took nine penalties for 96 yards.

Lions 31 Saints 30 (OT) – Detroit led 21-0 and needed a stop on a two-point conversion in overtime to survive. Jahmyr Gibbs carried a career-high 29 times for 156 and two scores with five catches. Jared Goff was 26 of 39 for 206 with two touchdowns and no turnovers, both scores going to Amon-Ra St. Brown, who finished with 67 receiving yards, and got the break of the afternoon when Chase Young knocked the ball loose on a sack and New Orleans returned it for a touchdown, only for review to rule Goff’s arm had started forward. Dan Campbell said outright he thought they’d lost that one. Tyler Shough threw two interceptions and lost a fumble and then went 35 of 56 for 410 and three touchdowns, converting a fourth-and-12 from his own 23 and hitting Chris Olave for 43 to set up the tying score with 1:07 left. Detroit went three-and-out and Ryan Wright missed from 62 as time expired. In overtime Kellen Moore took the two-point try rather than extend the game, saying he didn’t want to give Detroit the ball back with 1:34. New Orleans outgained Detroit 469 to 369 and lost on the turnover margin. Christian Mahogany was carted off with a right knee injury.

Jets 23 Titans 10 – New York never trailed, out-gained Tennessee 367-195, held the ball nearly 39 minutes and put together a 19-play drive that consumed almost twelve minutes of the first half. Breece Hall ran for 102 and a score. Geno Smith went 19 of 24 for 215 with no interceptions in his return to the team that drafted him, coming off a league-high 17 picks a year ago. The defense that finished 32nd in passing EPA in 2025 without recording a single interception got three sacks with Aaron Glenn calling it himself, one from No. 2 overall pick David Bailey and one from Kingsley Enagbare. Cam Ward was 19 of 32 for 140 with a late touchdown to Elic Ayomanor and said the Titans are better than what they showed. Robert Saleh, calling the defense himself against the team that fired him five games into 2024, said the Jets got after them. Tennessee pushed the opening kickoff out of bounds, burned a timeout to avoid twelve men on the field, and lost a Chimere Dike fumble on a kickoff after he’d already been checked for a concussion on his first punt return. Glenn deactivated Blake Grupe, claimed off waivers from Indianapolis on Aug. 31, and elevated Jason Sanders from the practice squad, who hit from 33, 51 and 52.

Eagles 24 Commanders 22 – Washington was a yard from overtime. Jayden Daniels found Antonio Williams on third-and-goal from the 1 with 1:01 left, and Moro Ojomo blew up a shovel pass to backup tight end John Bates on the two-point attempt. Nick Sirianni is 6-0 in openers. Jalen Hurts was 14 of 25 for 203 with three touchdowns — two of them to Dallas Goedert on third down, both down the middle of the field — and added 46 rushing yards including a 22-yard scramble on third-and-18 that saved the game. Dontayvion Wicks, acquired from Green Bay in April, had a career-long 64-yard catch and a touchdown. Zack Baun had 12 tackles, a sack and a tipped pass inside the final two minutes. DeVonta Smith, the new No. 1, finished with three catches. Philadelphia’s line was the problem: three sacks allowed, constant pressure, four of the team’s five penalties on linemen, two holding calls on Cam Jurgens, and a third quarter that produced 59 yards and one first down. Daniels went 18 of 34 for 164 and two scores behind a line missing Laremy Tunsil, and Washington ran for 132. Dan Quinn said the miscues were the margin — a high snap cost an extra point, Drew Stevens missed from 54, and Stefon Diggs took a 15-yard unsportsmanlike for hugging the goalpost after his touchdown, which is why Washington kicked the extra point there rather than going for two.

Vikings 39 Packers 22 – The one game where the book and the model took opposite sides, and the book won it. Kyler Murray played eleven snaps, threw an interception, and left with a concussion on a slide that drew an unnecessary roughness flag on Javon Bullard. Carson Wentz, brought back this year essentially as a mentor, went 12 of 19 for 133 with three touchdowns and a 123.5 rating, and Minnesota scored the game’s final 29 points. Two of the three went to Justin Jefferson, who finished with eight catches for 92 and matched his entire 2025 touchdown total, and Jefferson caught the two-point conversion that gave Minnesota its first lead. Minnesota hit Jordan Love fifteen times, sacked him four, and held Green Bay to 3.1 yards a carry. Three of Minnesota’s four second-half touchdown drives started in Green Bay territory, following a long kickoff return and two turnovers. Green Bay reportedly became the first team in NFL history to lead by 12-plus with twenty minutes remaining and lose by 17-plus. The turn was a Matt LaFleur decision: up five, he waved off a made 40-yard Trey Smack field goal to take an offside penalty and go for fourth-and-1, and Jordan Love was stuffed by rookie Domonique Orange. Minnesota then drove the other way while Green Bay committed four defensive penalties on the same possession, including an illegal contact that erased a third-down sack and a holding call that erased an end-zone interception. Love finished 21 of 42 for 387 and two touchdowns to Christian Watson, including an 81-yard career-long, behind a line that gave up four sacks and two fumbles with Aaron Banks inactive and Donovan Jennings making his first career start. Dallas Turner was credited with nine pressures, Andrew Van Ginkel with two sacks and the strip that set up the clinching score.

Bears 59 Panthers 37 – The highest-scoring opener in NFL history, eight points past the previous mark of 88 set in Tampa Bay’s 48-40 win over New Orleans in 2018. Chicago’s 59 tied the 2019 Ravens for the most points ever scored on offense in a season opener and broke a franchise record for an opener that had stood since 1948. Caleb Williams threw for 269 and two scores and ran for 65 and two more on ten carries, all rushing career highs, and hit 70 percent completions for the first time under Ben Johnson. The efficiency is the part to take seriously: Williams’ off-target rate was a league-worst 20.2% last season and came in at 13.8% here, and his completion percentage over expectation went from minus-6.7 — worst among regular starters in 2025 — to plus-11.4, third-best of Week 1. Chicago ran for 291 as a team at 7.5 a carry, its most since 1984, and produced four runs of 25-plus yards, matching its entire 2025 total. D’Andre Swift, extended for $33.75 million this week, went for 124 and three touchdowns; Kyle Monangai added 100 including a 61-yard score. Seven touchdowns on twelve drives after an opening-possession fumble, 10 of 14 on third down, four for four in the red zone, 552 total yards. Kalif Raymond, 32 and signed this offseason, led the team in targets, catches and yards. Colston Loveland did not catch a pass. Carolina’s 16.1% pressure rate was the lowest of any defense in Week 1. Johnson spent his postgame on the defense, which allowed 478 yards and 24 first downs and never got Williams on the ground. Bryce Young threw for 361 and three scores in the best opener of his career, with Jalen Coker going for 138 and two. Carolina lost it on three turnovers — a muffed punt by Jimmy Horn Jr., a Tetairoa McMillan fumble on a scoring drive, and a Young interception — and on penalties, including two by Derrick Brown in the red zone that extended Chicago drives and a Trevis Gipson offsides on third-and-2 that would have given Carolina the ball back.

Cardinals 26 Chargers 14 – The week’s biggest underdog won on the road. Los Angeles ran 51 plays to Arizona’s 72 and held the ball 22 minutes to 37. Justin Herbert was 17 of 27 for 209 with a touchdown and an interception and was sacked three times, including on fourth-and-goal from the 3 before halftime when Trey Pipkins, in at left guard, was beaten inside immediately. The Chargers’ fourth quarter was a blocked punt recovered at their own 3, an interception on a double-covered deep ball, a turnover on downs, and a sequence of incompletion, false start, false start and holding that produced second-and-30. Los Angeles gained 117 yards in the second half, and Arizona held the ball for 19 of the first 30 minutes while averaging 4.5 yards a carry against an interior of Dalvin Tomlinson, Jamaree Caldwell and Teair Tart. Omarion Hampton averaged under half a yard before contact on twelve carries. Jim Harbaugh had been 6-0 in NFL season openers. Mike LaFleur became the first Arizona head coach to win his debut since Don Coryell in 1973, in the stadium where he called plays for the Rams last season. Jacoby Brissett threw for 277 and opened the game with a 27-yard completion to Trey McBride. Jeremiyah Love, questionable with an ankle and the entire Arizona backfield after James Conner and Trey Benson went on IR, scored on a 5-yard run. Chad Ryland hit four field goals. Ladd McConkey had 60 yards on the opening drive and 22 the rest of the way before leaving with a hip injury.

Raiders 27 Dolphins 13 – Las Vegas opened with a 16-play, 93-yard drive that took 8:58; they had one touchdown drive of 90-plus yards all of last season, when they finished last in the NFL in both yardage and scoring. Kirk Cousins completed his first ten throws and finished 21 of 30 for 160 with three touchdowns and two interceptions, becoming the 15th quarterback to reach 300 career touchdown passes and moving one ahead of John Elway. Ashton Jeanty, whose ankle the staff said they were counting on him to play through, ran for 102 and caught six for 45 with two of Cousins’ scores. The Raiders did it without Brock Bowers, who did not play following knee surgery; Michael Mayer caught six in his place. Maxx Crosby had 1.5 of the five sacks on Malik Willis and became the third Raider with 70 for his career. Willis threw for 220 and said the sacks were on him. Klint Kubiak got a game ball and then pointed at a fourth quarter in which three of four drives ended in punts and the other in an interception.

Giants 28 Cowboys 20 – John Harbaugh’s first game outside purple. New York held the ball 36:40 to 23:20, punted once all night, and gave Dallas two second-half possessions. Jaxson Dart was 23 of 29 for 230 with three touchdowns and a 134.2 rating, attempted two throws past 20 yards and completed neither, and added 54 rushing yards while conspicuously sliding away from contact. Isaiah Likely caught all eight of his targets for 78 and two scores in his New York debut, and Patrick Ricard was on the field for 27 of the Giants’ 35 rushing plays. Cam Skattebo ran for 81 on 18 carries in his first game back from a broken fibula and dislocated ankle. Malik Nabers, playing 350 days after tearing an ACL, had six catches for 69. Dak Prescott was 22 of 34 for 175 with two touchdown passes and a costly interception — a third-down throwaway before halftime that Jevon Holland ran down, after which New York went 55 yards in 29 seconds. The Giants never sacked Prescott but pressured him nine times, and he went 0 for 8 throwing under pressure against 22 of 26 when clean. It was Dallas’s worst defensive performance by EPA per drive since 2017, and Christian Parker largely declined to blitz despite generating pressure on five of seven blitzes through three quarters. Dallas took eight penalties for 85 yards, including a taunting flag on Javonte Williams that pushed Brandon Aubrey’s extra point back far enough to miss it.

Chiefs 31 Broncos 10 – Kansas City ran 31 times for 220 yards against the defense that took their division away, and the Denver questions now outnumber everyone else’s. Kenneth Walker III, the Super Bowl MVP who signed a three-year, $43.05 million deal in free agency, carried 23 times for 173 — the most by a Chief since Jamaal Charles went for 226 in 2012, the year before Andy Reid arrived — including a 60-yard touchdown on fourth-and-1 to open the third quarter. Patrick Mahomes, in a brace nine months to the day after tearing his ACL, scored on a 15-yard run on the opening drive and threw for 184 and two scores. Reid also pulled out a play his staff found in black-and-white footage from the 1930s, lining Mahomes up in a three-point stance next to Justin Fields and shovelling to Walker for a two-yard score. Denver finished with 176 yards of offense in Davis Webb’s first game calling plays. Bo Nix threw for 131 with an interception and a lost fumble. Jaylen Waddle, acquired from Miami for a package of picks, caught one pass for two yards, and he and Courtland Sutton combined for three catches and 13 yards. Evan Engram had Denver’s only touchdown. Per Next Gen Stats, the Broncos missed 28 tackles, the most by any defense in a game since at least 2018, and Walker alone forced 14 of them — the most by a Chiefs player in a game over that same span.

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Updated Power Rankings

We said in the preseason piece that we’d lean on the summer work and move for injuries and for evidence that actually changes a roster, not for one Sunday. That’s what this is. Seven teams moved more than two spots and five of those moves are injury-driven.

Week 1 DVOA, which Aaron Schatz is publishing with opponent adjustments for the first time this early in a season, lands close to this order at the top and far from it in the middle. It has San Francisco first, Jacksonville second and Baltimore third, with Chicago the top offense and Pittsburgh the top defense. It also produced something that has never happened in the fifty years of the metric: every 1-0 team graded positive and every 0-1 team graded negative. That is a warning as much as a finding. One week of results with no counter-evidence anywhere in the league is exactly the condition under which a rating system and a power ranking will agree with each other for no good reason.

The blended DAVE ratings, which are still 83% preseason forecast on offense and 98% on defense, tell a different story: Seattle first, Buffalo second, the Rams third despite ranking 29th in the week’s raw numbers, and Baltimore ninth.

1. Bills (3) — Beat a legitimate contender on the road, and FTN now has them as Super Bowl favorites.
2. Eagles (4) — Won. The offensive line is a real concern we did not flag in August.
3. Ravens (5) — A three-possession road win. Held here rather than higher because Indianapolis is a middling team and the receiver room is in trouble.
4. Rams (1) — Myles Garrett is on IR for at least four games and they lost by 20. DAVE still has them third, which is the case for not dropping them further.
5. Seahawks (2) — The defense won them the game, and DAVE has them first. Darnold’s hip determines where they sit next week.
6. Chiefs (11) — The largest rise on the board. Mahomes’ knee held, the defense graded second in Week 1 DVOA, and they ran for 220 with an undrafted rookie at left tackle.
7. 49ers (14) — Purdy, Warner and Bosa healthy in the same game, plus a line that led the league in rushing success rate.
8. Texans (7) — Lost at home and scored 31 on the team that led the NFL in yards allowed last year. Fourth in DAVE.
9. Lions (9) — Survived. The interior line is now a crisis.
10. Broncos (6) — 176 yards of offense and 28 missed tackles, the most by any defense in a game since at least 2018. Held at 10 rather than dropped further because one road loss in a division opener is one road loss.
11. Bengals (12) — Four takeaways is not a plan, but the personnel showed up.
12. Patriots (10) — A.J. Brown out several weeks from a thin room.
13. Chargers (8) — Lost at home as a nine-and-a-half-point favorite.
14. Bears (16) — The league’s top offense by DVOA and its 25th defense.
15. Jaguars (17) — Beat a team with no quarterback. Denver will tell us more.
16. Steelers (20) — The No. 1 defense in Week 1 DVOA, against a third-string quarterback. Moved up because we are picking them outright on the road this week and the two positions have to agree.
17. Packers (13) — Still without Parsons and Jacobs, and the line is now the bigger problem.
18. Vikings (19) — Won with their third quarterback.
19. Buccaneers (18) — Mayfield completed 82 percent and lost by himself.
20. Cowboys (15) — The defense was the whole thesis and it produced the worst EPA-per-drive performance the franchise has had since 2017.
21. Saints (21) — Came back from 21-0 on the road and lost by a point.
22. Giants (24) — Controlled a division game wire to wire.
23. Commanders (25) — Lost by two in Philadelphia without Tunsil.
24. Colts (22) — Outgained by 255 yards at home, and Kansas City is next.
25. Panthers (23) — Gave up 59 and 291 on the ground, and graded 32nd on defense.
26. Cardinals (30) — One road win doesn’t fix the quarterback room or the hardest schedule in the league.
27. Raiders (29) — Won without Bowers.
28. Falcons (26) — Held, because Cooper Rush is not the team.
29. Jets (28) — Won a road game by 13 and did it the boring way.
30. Titans (27) — Last in Week 1 DVOA at -88.3%.
31. Browns (31) — Held.
32. Dolphins (32) — Held.

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Three Storylines to Watch

1. Mobile quarterbacks are moving under center, and Week 1 says it works.

Baltimore took ten dropbacks from under center against Indianapolis, the most Lamar Jackson has ever had in a game, and he went 6 of 8 for 114 yards from those looks with a 116.7 rating. Derrick Henry gained 130 of his 144 yards on nineteen under-center carries. That isn’t a Baltimore quirk. Washington and Arizona hired coordinators this offseason with the same intention for Jayden Daniels and Kyler Murray, and the logic is identical everywhere: shotgun makes play-action legible to a defense, and it flattens the angles on outside zone. Put the quarterback under center and the run game gets harder to diagnose and the boot concepts come free.

The reason this matters beyond scheme trivia is that it was supposed to be the thing these quarterbacks couldn’t do. Jackson has taken about five percent of his career snaps under center, the second-fewest of any quarterback with fifty starts since 2018 — and he has the highest NFL QBR from under center over that stretch at 81.2. Eight seasons and three coordinators went by before anyone built a plan around it. Cincinnati, meanwhile, went the other way: Joe Burrow’s evolution was supposed to include more under-center work, and the Bengals ran nine such plays with a zero percent success rate.

If Week 1 is any indication, the Bears will be the RedZone must-watch team of the season — Schatz’s preseason DVOA projections had Chicago’s offense second in the league and its defense thirty-second, the widest split of any team, and the opener produced exactly that.

2. Three defenses changed their coverage identity, and two of them got torched.

Houston played zone on 24 of Josh Allen’s 32 dropbacks. In the two previous Texans wins over Buffalo, they played man nearly 39 percent of the time and Allen went 6 of 22 for 94 yards with an interception against it. Allen posted a rating over 129 against both coverages Sunday. Cleveland, under new coordinator Mike Rutenberg, replaced the aggressive man scheme Jim Schwartz ran with passive zone, blitzed three times, generated no quick pressures, and watched Trevor Lawrence go 10 of 12 for 179 and three touchdowns on throws past ten yards. Pittsburgh played nothing but zone against Atlanta and graded out as the No. 1 defense in Week 1 DVOA, though Cooper Rush is not the test that number implies.

All three now face a different problem in Week 2. Houston gets Burrow. Cleveland gets Baker Mayfield coming off an 82 percent completion day. Pittsburgh gets Drake Maye, whose three fourth-quarter interceptions all came from abandoning the underneath throws a zone defense is happy to concede. Patrick Graham also gets Joey Porter Jr. back from a back injury, and Porter is a press-man specialist, which is a strange fit for what the Steelers just showed.

3. Four teams spent heavily on defense this offseason. One week in, the returns look nothing alike.

Cincinnati sent a first-round pick to the Giants for Dexter Lawrence and signed Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger. Dallas added Rashan Gary, Von Miller, Jalen Thompson, Cobie Durant and two first-round picks, and hired Christian Parker from Philadelphia. Buffalo fired Sean McDermott and handed the defense to Jim Leonhard. Houston returned the unit that finished first in yards allowed and second in scoring.

Cincinnati got four takeaways and four sacks, though against a quarterback who put the ball on the ground three times by himself. Dallas produced its worst performance by EPA per drive since 2017 and declined to blitz despite generating pressure on five of seven attempts. Buffalo blitzed 31 percent, got very little home, and left holes behind it. Houston gave up 7.9 yards a play, the most under DeMeco Ryans, and got no sacks from Danielle Hunter or Will Anderson Jr.

The cleanest read available is that none of these units has been tested the way it will be. Cincinnati goes to Houston. Dallas hosts a Washington front that just made Philadelphia uncomfortable. Buffalo hosts Detroit on a short week. The spending was the easy part.

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Week 2 Games

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Three games this week have the market and the model on opposite sides, after only one in Week 1 — and one of them is not close. DraftKings has Denver favored by 2.5 at home against Jacksonville; ESPN’s predictor gives the Broncos a 36.9% chance of winning. Detroit at Buffalo carries the highest total of the week at 53.5. San Francisco is laying the most points at 13.5.

Thursday September 17th

Detroit at Buffalo – Buffalo’s first game in its new stadium, and Detroit walks in on four days’ rest after an overtime game. The Lions are the more banged-up team by a distance: Christian Mahogany was carted off with a knee injury on top of Cade Mays being out 8-10 weeks and Seth McLaughlin in concussion protocol, which leaves the interior line thin behind the thin, and both starting safeties remain ineligible until Week 5. Jahmyr Gibbs took 29 carries in Week 1 and now plays again in five days. On the other side, Buffalo’s offense looked like the version that wins games nobody expects them to — Kincaid’s route share jumped to 71%, DJ Moore cleared a hundred in his debut, and the 13-personnel wrinkle at 36.8% of snaps was not on anyone’s tape. The question is whether Jim Leonhard’s defense can hold up, and Jared Goff is a poor opponent to find out against. Goff doesn’t create pressure problems for himself and he punishes coverage busts, which Buffalo had several of in Houston. Buffalo is a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 53.5, and given a 66.9% chance of winning. That total is the highest on the board and says the market expects neither defense to settle this.

Match-Up to Watch: Dalton Kincaid and the Buffalo tight end grouping against a Detroit defense missing Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch. Kincaid put up 130 yards against the league’s No. 1 EPA defense. Detroit is starting its third and fourth safeties.

Our Pick: Buffalo.

Sunday September 20th

Carolina at Atlanta – The first division game of the year for both, and both arrive damaged in opposite ways. Carolina scored 37 and gave up 59, with Bryce Young throwing for 361 in the best opener of his career behind a line still missing both starting tackles into late October. Atlanta scored 13 with Cooper Rush and got 173 of its 238 yards from Bijan Robinson. Whether Michael Penix Jr. is available is the entire game. If he is, Atlanta’s passing offense goes from an active liability to something Carolina’s defense — which just allowed 291 rushing yards and could not get a quarterback on the ground — has to account for. If it’s Rush again, Atlanta needs a defensive performance like the one it just gave, holding Pittsburgh to 264 yards, and a cleaner day than nine penalties for 96 yards. Carolina is a 1.5 point road favorite with a total of 43.5, but Atlanta is given a 55.4% chance of winning. That is the tightest line on the board and one of three games this week where the number and the model disagree.

Key to the Game: Atlanta’s quarterback. Everything else in this matchup is legible; this isn’t.

Our Pick: Carolina, on the assumption Atlanta doesn’t get Penix back. If he plays, we’d flip it.

New Orleans at Baltimore – Baltimore is a 7.5 point favorite with a total of 46.5, and given a 76.2% chance of winning. Our pick here.

Match-Up to Watch: Nate Wiggins against Chris Olave.

Minnesota at Chicago – Chicago scored 59 and allowed 478 yards; Minnesota came back from 12 down in the fourth with its third quarterback. Kyler Murray’s status is the swing — O’Connell said he seemed fine after the game but gave no timetable, and O’Connell had named Carson Wentz the backup ahead of J.J. McCarthy only last week, so an absence means Wentz rather than the 2024 first-round pick. Brian Flores against Caleb Williams is the real interest. Williams completed 58.1 percent last season with the worst completion percentage over expectation among regular starters, and in Week 1 he posted the third-best CPOE of the weekend against a Carolina defense that generated the lowest pressure rate in football. Flores will not be that accommodating. Chicago’s defense is the counterweight: Kyler Gordon can’t play until Week 5, Coby Bryant isn’t expected until January, and Jaylon Johnson is working through an arm injury. Chicago scored 59 without a single catch from Colston Loveland, who we named a preseason breakout and who remains the piece Johnson built his Detroit offenses around. Chicago is a 5.5 point favorite with a total of 49.5, and given a 59.9% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Caleb Williams against Brian Flores’ pressure looks. Flores blitzes more than anyone, and the entire question about Williams is whether the accuracy holds when the pocket isn’t clean.

Our Pick: Chicago.

Cincinnati at Houston – The cleanest test of the week. Our published line on Cincinnati was that the defense doesn’t have to be good, it has to be average, and Week 1 produced four takeaways from a Tampa Bay team that handed them over. Houston does not give the ball away often, and just ran 73 plays and held it for 36 minutes against Buffalo. If the Bengals’ defensive investment is real rather than opportunistic, this is where it shows. Houston’s defense led the NFL in yards allowed last season and gave up 36 in the opener, surrendering 7.9 yards a play and 400-plus total yards for the first time under DeMeco Ryans since late 2024. Cincinnati’s own second half was the second-worst offensive half of the week by EPA, and the Bengals ran nine plays from under center without a single success. Houston is a 3 point favorite with a total of 46.5, and given a 55.5% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Mike Gesicki and Cincinnati’s tight ends against Houston’s safeties. Dalton Kincaid went for 130 on that group last week, and Gesicki drew seven targets in Week 1 with Ja’Marr Chase bracketed.

Our Pick: Houston.

Pittsburgh at New England – New England’s line let Drake Maye get pressured on 38.1% of dropbacks against Seattle, and now T.J. Watt arrives off a two-sack, pick-six afternoon with Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig and Cam Heyward alongside him. A.J. Brown is out several weeks with a high ankle sprain, leaving Maye with Doubs, Douglas, Hollins, Kyle Williams and Efton Chism after Kayshon Boutte was traded to Houston in camp. Maye just threw three interceptions forcing throws into coverage. Pittsburgh played exclusively zone against Atlanta per Next Gen Stats, which is the coverage that invites a quarterback to be patient, the exact thing Maye said he stopped being. Joey Porter Jr. missed Week 1 with a back issue and is a press-man specialist, so his return would change what Patrick Graham can call. Rodgers pushed the ball further downfield than he has as a Steeler and completed 60 percent doing it. New England is a 5.5 point favorite with a total of 41.5, and given a 65.9% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: T.J. Watt against New England’s tackles. Will Campbell graded well outside two penalties; Alijah Vera-Tucker had a rough debut and Jared Wilson hurt his hand.

Our Pick: Pittsburgh. Five and a half points is a lot to lay with a team that lost at home, lost its best receiver, and could not run the ball, against the best edge group in the league.

Green Bay at New York Jets – Green Bay’s line problem is now the headline. Jordan Love threw for 387 behind a front that gave up four sacks, two fumbles and fifteen quarterback hits with Aaron Banks inactive, and Micah Parsons and Josh Jacobs are both still unavailable. He draws Aaron Glenn, who called the defense himself in Week 1 and got three sacks with a rebuilt front seven. The Jets won their opener the boring way — 39 minutes of possession, a 19-play drive, Geno Smith throwing 24 times without a turnover. Green Bay has now lost five straight dating to last season, four of them after leading in the second half by multiple scores, and Matt LaFleur signed an extension in between. Green Bay is a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 44.5, and given a 61.7% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Green Bay’s interior line against the Jets’ rebuilt front. T’Vondre Sweat, Harrison Phillips and David Onyemata inside against Donovan Jennings making his second career start.

Our Pick: Green Bay.

Cleveland at Tampa Bay – Cleveland managed 272 yards, went 1 for 8 on third down and took 11 penalties in Jacksonville. Tampa Bay handed Cincinnati four turnovers and lost a game it otherwise played well, with Baker Mayfield completing 82 percent of his throws and fumbling three times. The Browns defense was supposed to be the floor under this season — first in passing EPA last year — and instead played passive zone, blitzed three times and never pressured Trevor Lawrence. Jared Verse did not record a hurry. Deshaun Watson threw an interception five plays into the year, and Todd Monken declined afterward to put a quarterback change on the table. Tampa Bay is an 8.5 point favorite with a total of 40.5, and given a 77.6% chance of winning. That is the second-largest number of the week and the joint-lowest total.

Match-Up to Watch: Cleveland’s front against Baker Mayfield’s ball security. Tampa put it on the ground four times in a game it led in most other categories.

Our Pick: Tampa Bay.

Philadelphia at Tennessee – Philadelphia won by two at home while its offensive line gave up three sacks, committed four penalties and produced a 59-yard third quarter. Tennessee was outgained 367-195 at home by the Jets. Cam Ward threw for 140 and was chased all afternoon. Jalen Hurts threw three touchdowns down the middle of the field in Sean Mannion’s debut, the throw Philadelphia had stopped making under Kevin Patullo. The Eagles’ defense is the reason to expect a comfortable afternoon: Fangio, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the secondary, Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis up front. DeJean had the worst game of his career in Week 1 and gets a much softer test. Philadelphia is a 7 point favorite with a total of 40.5, and given a 70.1% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis against Tennessee’s interior. Ward has now been pressured into two of the worst full-game passing lines of his young career against defensive fronts a tier below this one.

Our Pick: Philadelphia.

Jacksonville at Denver – Jacksonville’s best offensive performance of 2025 was Week 16 in Denver, when it scored 34 and beat the AFC’s top seed on the road — the only team to beat the Broncos by double digits all year. They open this season having scored on six of their first seven drives against a Cleveland defense that played passive zone and never pressured Trevor Lawrence, which is the opposite of what Denver usually does. The Broncos led the NFL with 68 sacks last year, eleven clear of the field, though Jonathon Cooper remains on the Commissioner’s Exempt List. Lawrence was sacked once by Cleveland and that offensive line, a projected weakness, held up all afternoon. What Denver did Monday complicates the whole picture: 176 yards of offense in Davis Webb’s play-calling debut, and a defense that gave up 220 rushing yards and missed 28 tackles, the most in a game by any defense since at least 2018. Jacksonville’s three-man backfield of Bhayshul Tuten, Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Ameer Abdullah ran for 121 on 25 carries with a 52% success rate. Denver is a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 44.5, but ESPN gives the Broncos only a 36.9% chance of winning — the widest gap between a line and the model we have seen this season.

Match-Up to Watch: Jacksonville’s run game against Alex Singleton, DJ Jones and the middle of the Denver defense. The Broncos have now been run on by Buffalo, New England and Kansas City in consecutive meaningful games.

Our Pick: Jacksonville.

Las Vegas at Los Angeles Chargers – Las Vegas beat Miami without Brock Bowers, who is out following a knee procedure, and now starts the hard part of its schedule. The Chargers lost at home as a nine-and-a-half-point favorite and come out of it with Ladd McConkey nursing a hip and Elijah Molden a hamstring, which matters more than usual given what the offense looked like once McConkey left the field. Arizona sacked Herbert three times, held the ball for 19 of the first 30 minutes, and averaged 4.5 yards a carry in the first half against an interior of Dalvin Tomlinson, Jamaree Caldwell and Teair Tart. Omarion Hampton averaged under half a yard before contact. Maxx Crosby is a worse problem than Walter Nolen and Josh Sweat, and Kwity Paye — signed in free agency specifically to be the second rusher Las Vegas has never had — opened with two sacks, five pressures and five quarterback hits. On the other side, Cousins threw for 160 yards on 30 attempts and Las Vegas’ offense ran through Jeanty and a long opening drive. The Chargers are a 7 point favorite with a total of 43.5, and given a 68.7% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Maxx Crosby against the Chargers’ interior. Crosby has 70 career sacks and Los Angeles is elite at tackle and unproven inside.

Our Pick: Los Angeles.

Seattle at Arizona – The defending champions travel to face the team that just won at SoFi. Seattle’s offense produced a field goal through three quarters with Drew Lock in for an injured Darnold and a skill group missing Zach Charbonnet, Tory Horton and Robbie Ouzts, and the defense won the game with three fourth-quarter interceptions. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the reigning Offensive Player of the Year, had 122 yards on eight catches with a backup throwing to him. Darnold’s hip is the story: Macdonald said tests ruled out a break, but if Lock starts, Seattle’s ranking is being carried entirely by Mike Macdonald. Arizona controlled the ball for 37 minutes against the Chargers and Jacoby Brissett threw for 277 without a turnover. Trey McBride and a healthy Jeremiyah Love give Mike LaFleur two pieces to build around, and Arizona’s front got home three times. Seattle is a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 41.5, but Arizona is given a 52.9% chance of winning — the third game this week where the number and the model disagree.

Match-Up to Watch: Trey McBride against Seattle’s linebackers and safeties. Nick Emmanwori was inactive in Week 1 with an ankle, and McBride is the one Arizona skill player who grades a 9.

Our Pick: Seattle.

Washington at Dallas – Washington’s second straight division game after losing by two in Philadelphia, and Dallas’ first home game after losing at the Giants. Both defenses are the story. Dallas rebuilt its entire defensive side and then turned in its worst performance by EPA per drive since 2017, with Christian Parker largely declining to blitz despite generating pressure on five of seven blitzes through three quarters. Washington got three sacks and five quarterback hits without Jer’Zhan Newton, with Sonny Styles and Odafe Oweh both showing up, and held Hurts to 203 yards. Jayden Daniels was 18 of 34 for 164 behind a line missing Laremy Tunsil, and Terry McLaurin finished without a catch. Dak Prescott went 22 of 26 when kept clean in Week 1 and 0 for 8 under pressure. Dallas also lost Malik Hooker to a fractured forearm, which may force them to move Caleb Downs — the 11th overall pick, who played 61 of 69 snaps between safety and the slot and produced seven tackles, a sack and a forced fumble — out of the slot role he was drafted to play. Dallas is a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 50.5, and given a 63% chance of winning. That total is the second-highest of the week.

Match-Up to Watch: Washington’s pass rush against a Dallas line that kept Prescott clean most of the night. The Giants pressured him nine times without a sack and it decided the game.

Our Pick: Washington. The model has Dallas at 63% off a defensive performance that was the worst this franchise has produced in nine years, and Washington’s front just made Philadelphia uncomfortable for four quarters.

Miami at San Francisco – San Francisco beat the preseason favorite by 20 and now gets the roster Clay graded 32nd on both sides of the ball. Malik Willis was sacked five times and threw for 220. Miami’s defense allowed a 16-play, 93-yard opening drive. The 49ers had four blown blocks as a unit, led the league in rushing success rate at 56.7%, and got Bosa and Warner back at full speed. The question is whether Kyle Shanahan has to spend anything here, and whether Brock Purdy stays upright, since the entire San Francisco projection rests on him playing seventeen games rather than nine. San Francisco is a 13.5 point favorite with a total of 45.5, and given a 90.8% chance of winning — the largest number of the week by a distance.

Key to the Game: Whether San Francisco can win this cheaply. They played Friday in Australia and now play a home game on a short turnaround against the league’s weakest roster.

Our Pick: San Francisco.

Indianapolis at Kansas City – Indianapolis was outgained by 255 yards at home, graded 30th in Week 1 DVOA, and now goes to Arrowhead before hosting Houston. Daniel Jones, nine months off an Achilles, went 19 of 31 for 166 with an interception and ran once for four yards, and Schatz’s preseason model had already built in a first-month penalty for exactly that. Jonathan Taylor ran for 98 and two scores against Baltimore and remains the reason to watch. Kansas City’s defense graded second in the league in Week 1, holding Denver to 176 yards and limiting Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton to three catches for thirteen between them — and it did that after losing rookie corner Mansoor Delane, the sixth overall pick, to a shoulder injury on the third play of the game. The Chiefs’ vulnerability is at left tackle, where Josh Simmons is out and undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson is now on tape for the first time. Kansas City is a 6.5 point favorite with a total of 47.5, and given a 75.9% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Indianapolis’ edge rush against Kahlil Benson. Denver got very little out of that matchup and there’s now a full game of film on him.

Our Pick: Kansas City.

Monday September 21st

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams – The Rams host their home opener at 0-1 without Myles Garrett, who had arthroscopic knee surgery and will miss at least four games. Aaron Donald unretired into a defense that was supposed to pair him with Garrett, and how much he can give at 35 having not played since 2023 is now a live question rather than a luxury. Stafford was held to 155 yards and stopped on a fourth-down sneak from the 1. The Giants just controlled a division game for sixty minutes with Jaxson Dart throwing nothing deep, Isaiah Likely catching all eight of his targets, and Patrick Ricard on the field for most of the run game. New York’s corners remain the problem — Dru Phillips drew three interference penalties and Paulson Adebo was beaten twice on three targets — and Puka Nacua is a harder assignment than the one that just exposed them. The Rams are a 7 point favorite with a total of 48.5, and given a 66.3% chance of winning.

Match-Up to Watch: Puka Nacua against the Giants’ secondary. Nacua was limited to one long reception by San Francisco, and New York does not currently have a corner it can leave alone.

Our Pick: Los Angeles.