Maryland projects at roughly 21-11 overall and 11-9 in the Big Ten – an NCAA Tournament team seeded 9 to 11, after a 12-21 first season under Buzz Williams. The roster is more talented and looks like it fits together far better than last year’s did. There is room for this team to exceed their current projections, and there is also room for MD to fall short of the NCAA Tournament even in an expanded 76 team field.
That would be a failure for Coach Buzz Williams, and the MD program. Whether MD gets to dance might come down to how they fare in five conference road games against teams currently projected to below the Terps.
Where The Projections Sit
Every national outlet has Maryland as a bubble team, 10th to 12th in the Big Ten. I haven’t seen anyone project them to finish below 12th in Conference play.
I don’t think there is anyone out there currently projecting MD to finish Top 6 in the Conference either.
| Source | Maryland | As of |
| Bart Torvik preseason | 33rd (15th offense, 72nd defense) | May 2nd |
| Andy Katz Power 44 | 43rd, 12th in the Big Ten | May 29th |
| Joe Lunardi Bracketology | First Four Out | Aug 18th |
| ESPN floors and ceilings | 11th in the Big Ten; ceiling 24 wins and the round of 32, floor 18 wins and no bid | Aug 5th |
Torvik’s split looks inverted to me and my expectations, as I anticipate this team to be led by their defense.
The Williams Pattern
Williams’ three worst seasons in a decade were all year one or year two of a job. Twice the recovery reached the Top 35 within three years. Maryland’s 119th is not an outlier in his career; it is his standard opening move, and 2027-28 is when the pattern says it should break historically. Breaking in Year 3 here would not be sufficient. Needs to be a major jump here in Year 2.
The Roster
Sixteen players, six transfers, four freshmen and five holdovers. The class ranked 10th among high school groups, 19th in the portal and 5th overall. The roster reportedly cost north of $14 million.
Backcourt
| Player | Ht | Yr | From | 2025-26 | The number that matters |
| DJ Wagner | 6-4 | Sr | Kentucky/Arkansas | 7.4 pts, 2.4 ast | 85 assists to 23 turnovers; 11.2 and 3.6 as a sophomore starter |
| Bishop Boswell | 6-4 | Jr | Tennessee | 6.2 pts, 4.4 reb, 3.1 ast | 13 pts, 9 ast, 0 TO vs Virginia — first SEC player to do that in an NCAA game since 2012 |
| Andre Mills | 6-4 | R-So | Maryland | 12.2 pts, 4.1 reb | 39 points vs Northwestern, tying Diamond Stone’s freshman record |
| Mike McNair Jr. | 6-5 | Gr | Boston University | 16.9 pts, 5.1 reb | 5th nationally at 44.4% from three; 24.0 ppg on 13-of-21 at Northwestern and Penn State |
| Kaden House | 6-3 | Fr | Compass Prep | — | 2026 EYBL Defensive Player of the Year; No. 25 by Rivals |
| Guillermo Del Pino | 6-5 | So | Maryland | 1.5 pts in 24 games | MVP of the 2023 FIBA U16 Euros; missed seven games hurt |
| Lukas Sotell | 6-3 | Sr | Maryland | — | The only holdover from the Willard roster |
Wings
| Player | Ht | Yr | From | 2025-26 | The number that matters |
| Baba Oladotun | 6-10 | Fr | Blake (Silver Spring) | — | No. 10 nationally; second-highest-rated signee in program history behind Diamond Stone |
| Maban Jabriel | 6-9 | Jr | Queens | 7.7 pts, 3.8 reb | 44% from three, 35th nationally |
| George Turkson Jr. | 6-7 | R-So | Texas A&M | 1.3 pts in 23 games | Eight points on 4-of-6 vs No. 2 Michigan, 4 star, Top 100 out of HS |
| Austin Brown | 6-8 | Fr | Lufkin (TX) | — | 2,616 career points, Lufkin’s all-time leading scorer |
Frontcourt
| Player | Ht | Yr | From | 2025-26 | The number that matters |
| Pharrel Payne | 6-9 | R-Sr | Minnesota/Texas A&M | 17.5 pts, 7.2 reb in 10 games | Third season with Buzz Williams; 25 and 10 vs Yale in the 2025 NCAA tournament |
| Tomislav Buljan | 6-9 | So | New Mexico | 13.1 pts, 10.3 reb | The only Mountain West player to average a double-double; school-record 141 offensive rebounds |
| Robert Jennings II | 6-8 | Gr | Texas Tech/Oklahoma St | 3 games, medical redshirt | Would have ranked 8th nationally in offensive rebounding rate in 2023-24 |
| Alex K’Medehouto | 7-0 | Jr | Frank Phillips/South Plains | 3.8 pts, 4.6 reb (JuCo) | 83 blocks in 33 games as a JuCo freshman; 71-74% from the floor both years |
| Adama Tambedou | 6-7 | Fr | Putnam Science | — | MVP of the 2026 Iverson Classic; 15.3 and 10.0 in prep |
The rotation
Likely starters: Wagner — Boswell — Mills — Buljan — Payne, with Oladotun as a high-minutes sixth man who probably starts by January.
Maybe Oladotun grabs a staring spot right away, but after missing most of his Senior high school season; coupled with Mills having started 25 games and averaging 12.2 points in the Big Ten – I’d think Mills would begin the year as a starter.
I’ve seen some people suggest that Buljan and Payne might not play a lot together.
I don’t see how that works even if their similar.
I like McNair as the seventh man with him giving MD some spacing.
Jennings, Turkson, House and Jabriel fill out a nine-to-ten-man group; K’Medehouto and Tambedou are the emergency bigs.
That said, I like everything I’ve seen and read about Tambedou, so maybe he forces his way into more minutes then I’m currently expecting.
Expect a very good defensive rebounding team and a dominant offensive glass — Buljan, Jennings, K’Medehouto and Tambedou were all elite offensive rebounders at their last stops. That is the single most deliberate thing about how this roster was built.
The Schedule
Twenty Big Ten games split evenly, ten home and ten away, with two of them in early December. The full schedule runs 32 games plus two October exhibitions, against Georgia Tech at UMBC on Oct. 11th and West Virginia in College Park on Oct. 18th.
Non-Conference
Six buy games — Bucknell, Alcorn State, Wagner, American, Morgan State, Radford — and six that matter.
| Date | Opponent | Site |
| Nov 7th | at Georgetown | Washington, DC |
| Nov 13th | Virginia | College Park |
| Nov 24th | Tennessee (Players Era) | Las Vegas |
| Nov 26th | Iowa State or San Diego State (Players Era) | Las Vegas |
| Nov 27th | TBA (Players Era) | Las Vegas |
| Dec 19th | South Carolina | CFG Bank Arena, Baltimore |
The Big Ten Draw
Home: Michigan State, UCLA, USC, Illinois, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern
Away: Ohio State, Iowa, Indiana, Purdue, Penn State, Michigan State, Oregon, Washington, Rutgers, Michigan
The draw is favorable in structure. Maryland gets seven of ESPN’s top ten Big Ten teams at Xfinity Center, and draws Michigan State, Indiana and Rutgers at home once each. The December opener is unkind – at Ohio State on Dec. 6th, then Michigan State at home three days later – and January is eight straight games against tournament-caliber opposition.
Do Damage Against The Teams Expected To Be Below You
ESPN ranks seven Big Ten teams below Maryland. The Terps play eight games against those seven, and five are on the road: at Iowa (Jan 9th), at Penn State (Jan 30th), at Oregon (Feb 17th), at Washington (Feb 20th), at Rutgers (Feb 28th).
Quick Hits
The shooting concern is a legitimate question, but shouldn’t be a crisis. This won’t be a strong shooting team like the ’24-’25 team. But It has McNair at 44.4% (5th nationally, a program-record 110 makes), Jabriel at 44.0% (35th nationally), Boswell at 38.5%, Mills at 34.6% on 159 attempts, and Wagner improving from deep for a third straight year. Will this team be a great shot making team? I doubt it. I think there is enough shooting that it shouldn’t be a tremendous liability. Of course, MD is going to have to do work on the boards, and get to the line.
Andre Mills. Twelve points a game over a full Big Ten season, 25 starts, two 30-point games. He is the second Maryland freshman ever alongside Joe Smith to post two 30 point games as a rookie. He is also the strongest counter-evidence to the argument that this staff cannot develop players: a four-star ranked 96th nationally who redshirted at Texas A&M and produced a top-five freshman scoring season in program history.
Wagner’s baseline is? Hopefully his sophomore year, and not last season. He started all 36 games at Arkansas in 2024-25, led the team with 131 assists, ranked second in the SEC in minutes, and averaged 12.2 points and 4.6 assists over the final 18 games once he took over at point guard. He entered last season as preseason third-team All-SEC. Maryland needs that level of steady production.
Year Two: What Buzz Has To Obtain
- Make the tournament. With the field at 76, missing is close to disqualifying. There is no version of a second straight whiff he survives with credibility.
- Win a tournament game. A one-and-done 11 seed will read as treading water to the fan base. MD has just three Sweet 16s in 24 years, and wants signs to believe deeper runs in March are coming.
- Two and ideally three quality non-conference wins. Georgetown plus one of Virginia, South Carolina or the Players Era field. The schedule gives MD six chances before January.
- A defense that matches the rhetoric. Williams was hired on a reputation for gritty, physical defense and finished 125th. Injuries factored. So did overall lack of talent. In Year 2 a bottom-half defense would be an indictment with no alibi.
- Get Wagner right. The Arkansas read was that he impacts winning as a facilitator and struggles carrying the scoring. Maryland needs the former and needs not to require the latter.
- Maximize Oladotun. This might be his only season in College Park. Make the most of it.
- If there is an issue with the Boosters, that has to be settled. Winning would be what helps the most. But overall Buzz has to make sure everyone with the program – current players, former players, alumni, administration, former coaches, etc – is rowing in the same direction.
Expectations
Nationally, the current expectations are for MD to be a bubble team, 11 seed, finishing 10th to 12th in the Big Ten.
My program expectations for MD is to get back to being a perennial Top 25 team with Sweet 16 aspirations annually.
Is that possible for MD this year? We’ll see.
What are realistic expectation for this year? 21-11, 11-9 in the Big Ten, a 9 or 10 seed, somewhere around 35th in the efficiency ratings. That would be an 85-spot jump from 119th – dramatic-sounding, but close to what Texas A&M did from year two to year three under Williams, 137th to 33rd.
A 21 win, 10 seed season would be simultaneously a large improvement, a validation of the Williams career pattern, and short of the standard Maryland should hold. All three are true at once.
What I Like
The Payne-Buljan frontcourt. Two 6-9, 250-pound bodies, one of whom was the only Mountain West player to average a double-double and set a school offensive rebounding record, the other in his third year in the system. They should combine to be a strong duo, that isn’t pushed around.
The ball security. Wagner at 85-to-23 and Boswell at 106-to-53 is elite for a backcourt. Last season Maryland played shooting guards at point because Myles Rice did not work out. That specific problem is fixed.
McNair. A 224th-ranked portal addition who finished fifth nationally in three-point percentage and averaged 24.0 points shooting 13-of-21 from deep in road games at Northwestern and Penn State. He’ll have to adjust to a new role of being a reserve, and not getting as many looks as he is accustomed to. But he should be able to hit a couple of shots a game off the bench.
The defensive intent. House was Defensive Player of the Year in his HS league, Boswell led Tennessee in steals eight times, K’Medehouto blocked 83 shots in a JuCo season, McNair led BU in steals, Jennings is a defensive specialist by reputation. Five distinct defensive additions.
Oladotun. The second-highest-rated recruit in program history and a projected lottery pick, from Silver Spring. Worth watching regardless of the record.
The Primary Questions
- Does Mills take the next step? He scored 12.2 a game on 40.9% shooting and 46.8% on twos. With Wagner, Buljan and a healthy Payne cutting his usage, does that become 15 on 45%? The offense largely depends on it.
- Is Boswell’s shooting real? He opened last season at 60.7% from three through 18 games and finished at 38.5% – meaning he was roughly 20% over the back half, when SEC play tightened. His career high in points is 13, tied three times. Project him at 8 to 10 a game.
- How ready is Oladotun? He missed most of his senior high school season, returning for the playoffs. He’s going to be playing a ton, and potentially be a day one starter. If he needs until January, the wing rotation thins fast.
- Health. Payne played 10 games, Jennings three. Behind Jennings is a JuCo transfer and a freshman. You lose either of Payne or Buljan for any time, and that would likely be crippling.
- It’s 1 Year Situation: College Basketball in 2026 is not about program building. Is Williams and this roster cohesive, and ready to start building a resume out of the gate?
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.