All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.
The cliche is true: this is a week-to-week league. Underdogs won seven of the first 15 games in Week 3, per CBS Sports, and Chicago made it eight of 16 on Monday night with its third-string quarterback. Twelve of Sunday’s games were decided by eight points or fewer, tying the record for a single day, per ESPN Research. Very few teams are overwhelmingly better than the rest head-to-head. What decides most Sundays is who matches up with whom, and who is healthy.
The matchup side showed up everywhere. Pittsburgh’s offense came in 31st in DVOA and put 14 points on Cincinnati in the first quarter, going deep against man coverage. Cleveland took away Bryce Young’s deep ball with disguised pressure and won a game in which it gained 154 yards through three quarters.
Week 3 Review
Each game lists the line, our pick, what we expected to decide it and what did. Lines are DraftKings at kickoff where we have them.
Thursday
Atlanta had not run a red-zone play in two weeks with Cooper Rush at quarterback. With Michael Penix Jr. back from his November ACL tear, the Falcons fell behind 7-0, scored 27 straight, and outrushed Green Bay 242 to 17. Bijan Robinson ran for 194 yards and two touchdowns, and Drake London caught nine passes for a career-high 194.
Green Bay’s penalties turned it. A roughing call on Brenton Cox Jr. wiped out a third-and-11 stop, and Robinson went 55 yards on the next snap. Jordan Love threw 53 times behind a line starting rookie Jager Burton at left guard. It was the Packers’ first home-opener loss since 2012.
Packers -4.5 at kickoff (-7 when we published), total 43.5. ESPN had Green Bay at 74.1%. Our Pick: Packers.
Expected: Green Bay’s penalties and inexperienced line, against an Atlanta passing game that had been historically bad with Rush. What decided it: Penix changed Atlanta’s offense, and Green Bay’s penalties did the rest.
Sunday Early
We said this would be closer than the line, and it was tied at 24 midway through the fourth. The Jets erased a 14-point deficit on Geno Smith touchdowns to Jeremy Ruckert and Garrett Wilson and a two-point pass to Sterling Shepard. Smith finished 31 of 37 for 321 yards and three touchdowns, and rookie Kenyon Sadiq caught seven for 105.
Then two blown coverages let Detroit go 65 yards in four plays, capped by Jahmyr Gibbs’ 11-yard catch, his third touchdown. Chuck Clark’s strip-sack at the Detroit 28 ended it. Jared Goff has a touchdown pass in 26 straight games, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is the first Lion since Calvin Johnson in 2011 with a touchdown catch in each of the first three games, per the Lions.
Lions -6.5 when we published, total 48.5. ESPN had Detroit at 75.5%. Our Pick: Lions.
Expected: Whether Kelvin Sheppard blitzed the way he did against Allen, and a game closer than the line. What decided it: It was closer, tied at 24 in the fourth. Detroit’s pressure ended it: five sacks, per CBS Sports, the last a blitzing Chuck Clark’s strip-sack.
Kansas City scored touchdowns on its first two drives, then spent most of the afternoon letting Miami hang around. It was 14-10 going into the fourth. Miami failed on fourth down at its own 48, and Patrick Mahomes found Travis Kelce for an 11-yard touchdown with 2:55 left. Kelce’s 48-yard catch on the first play and that touchdown were his only targets.
Kenneth Walker III scored on a run and a catch and leads the league in rushing. Mahomes went 20 of 24. Miami has still not led for a single snap this season. It also lost De’Von Achane to a torn ACL on the opening drive, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter and NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.
Chiefs -11.5 when we published, total 45.5. ESPN had Kansas City at 85.8%. Our Pick: Chiefs.
Expected: Miami, last in DVOA, unable to hold a lead or the ball. What decided it: Kansas City’s first two drives. After that Miami’s defense held up, and the Chiefs needed a fourth-down stop and a late touchdown to pull away.
Aaron Rodgers was 0 for 9 on throws of 20-plus air yards in the first two weeks, and went 2 of 3 for 61 yards and two touchdowns on them in the first quarter, per Next Gen Stats. Pittsburgh started Brock Hoffman at right guard and first-round pick Max Iheanachor at right tackle. Rodgers held the ball an average of 3.19 seconds, his longest as a Steeler, per ESPN’s Benjamin Solak.
Jaylen Warren had a career-high 176 scrimmage yards with Rico Dowdle inactive. He gained 69 yards before contact after totaling -14 in the first two weeks, per Next Gen Stats. Joe Burrow completed his first 14 passes and threw three touchdowns. Cincinnati’s special teams cost it 10 points, on a roughing-the-punter penalty and Ke’Shawn Williams’ muffed punt. Chris Boswell’s 33-yarder put Pittsburgh ahead with 2:18 left, and Derrick Harmon’s strip-sack of Burrow sealed it.
Bengals -3.5 when we published, total 42.5. ESPN had Cincinnati at 61.1%. Our Pick: Bengals.
Expected: Whichever line held up, with Cincinnati’s front, tied for the league lead in sacks, against the Steelers offense. What decided it: The lines, as expected, but Pittsburgh’s. The rebuilt right side kept Dexter Lawrence quiet, Harmon had the only sack, and Cincinnati’s special teams gave away 10 points.
This was the game our 10-7 Houston projection could not survive losing, and Houston lost it. Spencer Shrader hurt his groin on the opening kickoff and still made four field goals, the last from 53 yards with 16 seconds left.
Houston gained 223 yards without Nico Collins or right guard Ed Ingram. It failed on fourth-and-1, then kicked a field goal on fourth-and-4 inside the 10 down 16-7, a call Solak says cost 3.6% in win probability. The defense forced three turnovers. Will Anderson Jr. had nine pressures and two strip-sacks, per ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, and the second set up Woody Marks’ go-ahead run with 1:48 left. The Colts needed 37 seconds and three plays to answer.
Texans -3 when we published, total 43.5. ESPN had Houston at 52.5%. Our Pick: Texans.
Expected: Houston’s red-zone offense, 32nd since the start of last season, and Collins’ hamstring. What decided it: Collins’ absence, yes: 223 yards. The red zone wasn’t the problem (2 of 3). Getting there was, along with two fourth-down decisions and Shrader’s leg.
Buffalo turned it over five times and won. James Cook fumbled on the first snap, Josh Allen threw two interceptions to rookie safety Genesis Smith and lost a fumble, and Dalton Kincaid fumbled at the Chargers’ 17. It was Buffalo’s first win at -4 or worse in turnover differential since 1997, and the opposing quarterback that day was Jim Harbaugh, per ESPN’s Nick Suss.
Harbaugh’s Chargers turned five takeaways into 10 points. They have now lost three games since 2015 in which they won the turnover margin by four or more; the rest of the league has lost two, per Solak. They kicked a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the 3 while tied, which Barnwell says cost 5.8% in win probability, then had to go for fourth-and-10 later. C.J. Gardner-Johnson intercepted Justin Herbert at the goal line, Allen scored the go-ahead touchdown with 7:35 left, and Cook added another. Cook ran for 154 yards, 108 of them on man-blocking concepts, per Next Gen Stats. Greg Rousseau tied Bruce Smith’s team record with five sacks through three games.
Bills -7 when we published), total 50.5. ESPN had Buffalo at 78.9%. Our Pick: Bills.
Expected: Buffalo’s offense, best in DVOA, against a Chargers team with 13 offensive penalties, seven fumbles and a rattled quarterback. What decided it: The turnovers went the other way; Buffalo committed five. The Chargers’ self-inflicted problems still decided it, through penalties and two field goals where the math said go for it.
Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdowns, all in the red zone. Drake Maye threw two interceptions, including Travis Hunter’s first career pick on third-and-goal from the 2, and lost a fumble when the ball slipped out of his hand. He has one touchdown pass and six interceptions, and his seven turnovers lead the league.
Andy Borregales missed from 38. Mack Hollins’ taunting penalty turned a fourth-and-1 conversion into a field goal. Christian Barmore and Carlton Davis were both hurt and both returned; guard Greg Van Roten did not. Jacksonville has an interception in eight straight games, the league’s longest active streak, per the Jaguars.
Jaguars -3 when we published, total 45.5. ESPN had Jacksonville at 57.5%. Our Pick: Jaguars.
Expected: The interior, Barmore and Milton Williams against Lawrence, plus New England’s attrition in the heat. What decided it: Maye. His three turnovers became 14 Jacksonville points. The pressure that mattered was on Maye, 11 times in the first half per ESPN’s Mike Reiss, from a front ranked 30th in pass-rush win rate.
We took Tennessee on Jaxson Dart’s injury, and the Giants won with Jameis Winston in a nor’easter. Dominic Zvada kicked four field goals. Tennessee went three-and-out on its first five possessions and did not get a first down until late in the third, per ESPN’s Turron Davenport. Chimere Dike fumbled the opening kickoff.
Cam Ward missed an open Carnell Tate in the end zone, hit Wan’Dale Robinson for the only touchdown with 5:35 left, then threw an interception to Jevon Holland on first-and-goal with 17 seconds left and two timeouts. The Giants lost Brian Burns to a torn ACL; he is out for the season. Jeffery Simmons had a sack and seven tackles in the first half.
Giants -2.5 at kickoff (-3 when we published, -6 at open), total 37.5 (40.5 when we published). ESPN had Tennessee at 54.1%. Our Pick: Titans.
Expected: Dart’s knee. We called it a tossup taken on the injury alone. What decided it: Not Dart. The weather, a Giants run game that gained 138 yards, and Ward’s misses in the red zone.
The biggest upset of the season. Marcus Mariota threw three touchdowns and ran for the clinching first down on third-and-7. Seattle outgained Washington but gave the ball away three times, and Washington scored 21 points off them. Rookie Sonny Styles had an interception and a forced fumble, the first rookie linebacker to do both in a game since 2018, per Solak. Kain Medrano, playing because Leo Chenal was carted off with a neck injury, returned a Sam Darnold interception 50 yards for the winning points.
Darnold threw for 379 yards and four touchdowns in his return, but Seattle ran for 44 yards and came away empty on three straight throws from the Washington 2 before half. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 10 for 128 and two scores and joined Jerry Rice (1989) as the only players with 120 yards and a touchdown in each of their team’s first three games. Seattle’s 12-game winning streak is over, and so is its run without allowing a 25-yard play: Terry McLaurin’s 30-yard touchdown ended it. Chenal was at the hospital with feeling in his extremities, per Dan Quinn.
Seahawks -6.5 when we published, total 39.5. ESPN had Seattle at 67.2%. Our Pick: Seahawks.
Expected: Mariota’s first start against the only defense yet to allow a 25-yard play, in the lowest total on the board. What decided it: Seattle’s three turnovers, worth 21 Washington points. The teams scored 64.
Carolina settled for four Ryan Fitzgerald field goals and went 0 for 3 on fourth down, which is how it led by only five after John Metchie III’s touchdown with 4:25 left. Deshaun Watson then threw an interception in the end zone, had it erased by a roughing penalty on Bobby Okereke, and hit Harold Fannin Jr. for a 14-yard touchdown with 1:48 left. Ronnie Hickman’s interception finished it.
Our Match-Up to Watch went Cleveland’s way. Young went 2 of 6 on deep throws after 7 of 11 in the first two weeks, per Barnwell, and was pressured on more than half his dropbacks for much of the game. Mason Graham has four sacks in three games. Carolina lost Jalen Coker and Mike Jackson during the game.
Panthers -3 when we published, total 42.5. ESPN had Carolina at 63.5%. Our Pick: Panthers.
Match-Up we named: Young’s 8.0 yards per dropback against Cleveland. What decided it: That matchup, the other way. Cleveland took away the deep ball, and Carolina’s three failed fourth downs left the door open for Watson.
Sunday Late
Minnesota scored on an 86-yard Myles Price punt return and a 41-yard Kyler Murray pass to Jordan Addison, and Will Reichard kicked from 54, 56 and 43. That was enough. Kyle Van Noy had three of Minnesota’s six sacks, and Tampa went 2 of 17 on third down. A Luke Goedeke hold wiped out an 85-yard Chris Godwin Jr. touchdown.
Baker Mayfield dislocated his right thumb late and has an MRI Monday. Justin Jefferson left in the first quarter with a right ankle injury. The Vikings are 3-0 and have won eight straight dating to last season.
Vikings -1.5 when we publishe), total 42.5. ESPN had Minnesota at 52.2%. Our Pick: Vikings.
Expected: Minnesota’s blitz against a line that had allowed seven sacks, Murray upgrading the offense, and the Tampa heat. What decided it: The pass rush (six sacks) and special teams. Murray did not upgrade the offense once Jefferson left, and the heat never showed up.
New Orleans led 27-16 in the third quarter behind four Tyler Shough touchdown passes, then turned it over four times in the fourth. The first came on a Malcolm Koonce strip-sack that stood on review. Kirk Cousins threw three touchdowns and has nine through three games. Brock Bowers made his season debut with 10 catches for 116 yards and the clinching touchdown.
The six tight-end touchdowns tied the NFL record for a game, per Solak. Las Vegas is 3-0.
Saints -3 when we published, total 43.5. ESPN had New Orleans at 64.3%. Our Pick: Saints.
Match-Up we named: Shough, sacked the second-most in the league, against a Raiders rush tied for the lead, with Kelvin Banks Jr. out. What decided it: Exactly that. Koonce’s strip-sack started four fourth-quarter turnovers, and Banks’ replacement, Asim Richards, was beaten on two of them, per ESPN’s Katherine Terrell.
Tyler Loop’s 56-yard field goal as time expired won it in Rio, set up by Lamar Jackson’s throw to Zay Flowers with seven seconds left and a timeout with one. Derrick Henry passed Eric Dickerson for ninth on the career rushing list. Full review in our Ravens piece.
Ravens -3 when we published, total 52.5. ESPN had Baltimore at 53.9%. Our Pick: Ravens.
Expected: Baltimore’s run blocking against Dallas’ run defense, Jackson’s protection, and the field. What decided it: The run game scored twice early and failed in short yardage late. Jackson won it in the fourth quarter. The field held up.
Kyle Shanahan opened with a hook-and-ladder on third-and-12: Brock Purdy to Mike Evans, lateral to Deebo Samuel, 82 yards. Purdy threw four touchdowns and tied Steve Young’s team record with nine touchdown passes through three games. San Francisco led 23-6, then lost Evans (ribs), Trent Williams (stinger) and Dre Greenlaw (quad), with Nick Bosa already out.
Arizona got within 29-27, helped by a muffed punt and two missed Eddy Pineiro extra points. George Kittle’s second touchdown and Samuel’s onside-kick recovery closed it.
49ers -8.5 when we published, total 47.5. ESPN had San Francisco at 90.3%. Our Pick: 49ers.
Expected: San Francisco’s DVOA and Purdy, against an offense that gained 151 yards the week before. What decided it: Purdy, as expected. Arizona scoring 30 after San Francisco’s injuries was not.
Sunday Night
The Rams led 16-0 at halftime and outgained Denver 482 to 257, per CBS Sports. Talanoa Hufanga dropped two interceptions, then returned one 66 yards for a touchdown with 4:49 left and caught another in the end zone on the final play. Bo Nix scored the winner from inches out with 47 seconds left, after a pass interference call on Justin Wallace.
Matthew Stafford threw for 390 yards without Puka Nacua. Davante Adams caught seven for 137. The Rams were 1 of 4 in the red zone.
Rams -2.5 when we published, total 45.5. ESPN had the Rams at 65.1%. Our Pick: Rams.
Expected: The Rams looking like themselves against a Denver run defense allowing 157.5 yards a game. What decided it: The Rams did look like themselves for a half, and gained 482 yards. Red-zone trips (1 of 4), Stafford’s pick-six and Hufanga decided it.
Monday Night
Case Keenum made his first start in almost three years, with Caleb Williams hurt and Tyson Bagent cleared from the concussion protocol only on Sunday. Keenum went 24 of 34 for 247 yards and two touchdowns, a shovel pass to Luther Burden and a 41-yarder to a wide-open Kalif Raymond. He also scored on a 1-yard run to finish a 13-play drive that took more than eight minutes. Ben Johnson credited Keenum’s command of the offense.
Philadelphia turned it over three times and still has no takeaways this season. Jalen Hurts was pulled for a concussion check after a late hit in the second quarter, and Andy Dalton threw an end-zone interception to rookie Dillon Thieneman while Hurts waited to be cleared. Hurts was later intercepted by T.J. Edwards on fourth-and-5, and Nick Sirianni said afterward he should have gone for an earlier fourth-and-1. The Eagles gained 62 of their 248 yards after halftime. Chicago lost left tackle Braxton Jones to a knee injury.
Eagles -3.5 when we published, total 44.5. ESPN had Philadelphia at 57.1%. Our Pick: Eagles.
Expected: Whether Bagent could run Ben Johnson’s offense unchanged, against the lowest-ranked 2-0 team in DVOA. What decided it: Keenum, not Bagent, running the offense on time, and three Philadelphia turnovers against a defense that still hasn’t forced one.
Power Rankings
Pre is our preseason ranking. Last week’s rank is in parentheses in each note below.
| BSL | Team | Rec | Pre | DVOA | ESPN | NFL.com | Prisco |
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | 3-0 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 3-0 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Seattle Seahawks | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 5 | Baltimore Ravens | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| 6 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 2-1 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 7 |
| 7 | Denver Broncos | 2-1 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 8 | Minnesota Vikings | 3-0 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 4 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Rams | 1-2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 10 |
| 10 | Cincinnati Bengals | 2-1 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 14 |
| 11 | Chicago Bears | 2-1 | 16 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 9 |
| 12 | Las Vegas Raiders | 3-0 | 29 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 15 |
| 13 | Detroit Lions | 2-1 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 12 |
| 14 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2-1 | 4 | 22 | 8 | 15 | 11 |
| 15 | Dallas Cowboys | 1-2 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 11 | 16 |
| 16 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2-1 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 19 | 13 |
| 17 | New Orleans Saints | 1-2 | 21 | 28 | 18 | 16 | 18 |
| 18 | Cleveland Browns | 2-1 | 31 | 27 | 24 | 17 | 25 |
| 19 | New York Jets | 1-2 | 28 | 15 | 25 | 18 | 30 |
| 20 | Houston Texans | 0-3 | 7 | 17 | 21 | 24 | 27 |
| 21 | Carolina Panthers | 1-2 | 23 | 13 | 22 | 22 | 26 |
| 22 | New York Giants | 2-1 | 24 | 20 | 19 | 25 | 19 |
| 23 | Indianapolis Colts | 1-2 | 22 | 24 | 23 | 20 | 20 |
| 24 | New England Patriots | 1-2 | 10 | 25 | 16 | 31 | 17 |
| 25 | Atlanta Falcons | 1-2 | 26 | 23 | 29 | 23 | 21 |
| 26 | Washington Commanders | 1-2 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 21 | 28 |
| 27 | Green Bay Packers | 1-2 | 13 | 30 | 20 | 28 | 22 |
| 28 | Arizona Cardinals | 1-2 | 30 | 19 | 28 | 26 | 23 |
| 29 | Los Angeles Chargers | 0-3 | 8 | 31 | 27 | 27 | 24 |
| 30 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0-3 | 18 | 21 | 30 | 29 | 29 |
| 31 | Tennessee Titans | 0-3 | 27 | 29 | 31 | 32 | 31 |
| 32 | Miami Dolphins | 0-3 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 30 | 32 |
- Bills (1). Five turnovers and still a win. First in ESPN and Prisco. They stay here until someone beats them.
- 49ers (3). First in DVOA at 68.7%, the ninth-best mark through three games since 1977, per FTN’s Aaron Schatz, and first on NFL.com. We held them at 3 until they beat a real opponent. Arizona wasn’t it; Denver on Sunday is.
- Chiefs (4). Kenneth Walker III leads the league in rushing and has changed what Mahomes’ offense can be. The concern is a pass rush that hasn’t sacked anyone in two weeks.
- Seahawks (2). Lost on three turnovers, not on being outplayed. First in team run-stop win rate, second in pass rush.
- Ravens (5). Last week we held them here against ESPN and Prisco. This week DVOA, ESPN and NFL.com all have them fifth.
- Jaguars (14). Second in DVOA and 10-1 in their last 11 regular-season games. The biggest move on the board, and still below where DVOA has them.
- Broncos (9). Two comeback wins in two weeks, and 10 first-half points all season. Sixth in three outside rankings, 16th in DVOA.
- Vikings (10). First in defensive DVOA, 30th on offense, eight straight wins.
- Rams (7). 1-2, but 10th in DVOA and the highest-ranked team with a losing record. Nacua is due back.
- Bengals (6). Pittsburgh put 411 yards on the defense we reversed our August read on.
- Bears (17). Case Keenum, and a defense that held Philadelphia to 248 yards.
- Raiders (19). Nine takeaways, nine Cousins touchdown passes, and a schedule that turns now: Kansas City, New England, Buffalo, the Rams.
- Lions (11). Thirty-plus points every week, and the most points allowed in the league.
- Eagles (8). 22nd in DVOA with no takeaways in three games. The Chicago loss confirmed what the first two weeks suggested.
- Cowboys (12). Lost in Rio on two late mistakes. Twelfth in DVOA.
- Steelers (18). A rebuilt right side and a new offense for one week. Now it has to last on a short week in Cleveland.
- Saints (21). Four fourth-quarter turnovers turned a win into a loss. Shough has eight touchdown passes.
- Browns (25). Outgained in all three games and 2-1 anyway, on defense and Mason Graham.
- Jets (20). Two one-score losses to NFC North teams. Fifteenth in DVOA.
- Texans (15). 0-3. DVOA has them 17th, and FTN says the offense is about what it was last season. The record is what we have to answer to.
- Panthers (23). Young is a different quarterback without Jalen Coker, and the injury list keeps growing.
- Giants (28). 2-1, with Dart and now Burns out for the season.
- Colts (24). The defense that allowed 1,029 yards in two weeks held Houston to 223.
- Patriots (13). The worst offense in DVOA. Maye has seven turnovers in three games.
- Falcons (31). With Penix, 35 points in Green Bay.
- Commanders (29). Beat the champions with a backup, and Daniels may be back in London.
- Packers (16). Last in pass-block win rate at 16%, and 30th in DVOA.
- Cardinals (26). Scored 24 second-half points in San Francisco after eight first-half penalties.
- Chargers (27). Five takeaways, still 0-3. DVOA and the results now agree.
- Buccaneers (22). 0-3, with an undrafted rookie at quarterback for at least three weeks.
- Titans (30). One first down in the first half in New Jersey.
- Dolphins (32). Hung with Kansas City for three quarters and lost Achane for the season.
Projected Win Totals
With 48 wins banked through three weeks, the Week 4 set spreads the remaining 224 across 14 games per team and sums to 272 again.
| Team | Rec | Week 3 | Week 4 | Note |
| Bills | 3-0 | 12-5 | 12-5 | Hold; division, No. 1 seed |
| Patriots | 1-2 | 10-7 | 8-9 | Down two |
| Jets | 1-2 | 7-10 | 7-10 | Hold |
| Dolphins | 0-3 | 2-15 | 2-15 | Hold |
| Ravens | 2-1 | 11-6 | 11-6 | Hold; division, No. 3 seed |
| Bengals | 2-1 | 10-7 | 10-7 | Hold; wild card |
| Steelers | 2-1 | 9-8 | 9-8 | Hold; first team out |
| Browns | 2-1 | 6-11 | 8-9 | Up two |
| Jaguars | 2-1 | 9-8 | 11-6 | Up two; division, No. 4 seed |
| Colts | 1-2 | 6-11 | 7-10 | Up one |
| Texans | 0-3 | 10-7 | 7-10 | Down three; loses the division |
| Titans | 0-3 | 5-12 | 4-13 | Down one |
| Chiefs | 3-0 | 12-5 | 12-5 | Hold; division, No. 2 seed |
| Broncos | 2-1 | 10-7 | 10-7 | Hold; wild card |
| Raiders | 3-0 | 9-8 | 10-7 | Up one; wild card |
| Chargers | 0-3 | 6-11 | 5-12 | Down one |
| Eagles | 2-1 | 11-6 | 10-7 | Down one; division, No. 3 seed |
| Cowboys | 1-2 | 10-7 | 9-8 | Down one |
| Commanders | 1-2 | 5-12 | 6-11 | Up one |
| Giants | 2-1 | 5-12 | 6-11 | Up one, even without Burns |
| Vikings | 3-0 | 11-6 | 12-5 | Up one; division, No. 2 seed |
| Lions | 2-1 | 10-7 | 10-7 | Hold; wild card |
| Bears | 2-1 | 8-9 | 9-8 | Up one; first team out |
| Packers | 1-2 | 9-8 | 7-10 | Down two |
| Saints | 1-2 | 9-8 | 9-8 | Hold; division, No. 4 seed |
| Panthers | 1-2 | 8-9 | 8-9 | Hold |
| Falcons | 1-2 | 4-13 | 7-10 | Up three |
| Buccaneers | 0-3 | 7-10 | 5-12 | Down two |
| 49ers | 3-0 | 11-6 | 13-4 | Up two; division, No. 1 seed |
| Seahawks | 2-1 | 12-5 | 11-6 | Down one; wild card |
| Rams | 1-2 | 12-5 | 11-6 | Down one; wild card |
| Cardinals | 1-2 | 6-11 | 6-11 | Hold |
Projected seeds. AFC: Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Jaguars; wild cards Broncos, Raiders, Bengals; first out, Steelers. NFC: 49ers, Vikings, Eagles, Saints; wild cards Seahawks, Rams, Lions; first out, Bears and Cowboys. Buffalo and Kansas City, Baltimore and Jacksonville, and Seattle and the Rams finish tied; we can’t project those tiebreakers.
Houston. Last week we called 10-7 from 0-2 the most aggressive projection on the page, and said a loss in Indianapolis would make it untenable. It did. The Texans drop three wins to 7-10, and the AFC South goes to Jacksonville.
The NFC West. We flipped the division from the Rams to Seattle last week. It now goes to San Francisco at 13-4, with Seattle and the Rams at 11-6 as wild cards.
Kansas City. From first team out in August to a projected top-two seed. We’ll say it every time the totals come back.
The AFC North. All four teams are 2-1. Baltimore holds the division at 11-6. Cincinnati’s 10-7 is now a wild card, Pittsburgh is first team out at 9-8, and Cleveland is up two to 8-9. Pittsburgh and Cleveland meet Thursday.
Week 4 Preview
No byes. In three games ESPN’s model favors the team the line has as the underdog: Green Bay at Tampa Bay, Dallas at Houston and Jacksonville at Cincinnati. Those, plus Denver at San Francisco, are the low-confidence picks and get a sentence of reasoning. Next week’s review checks each Key to the Game against what actually decided the game.
Thursday, October 1st
Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 8:15 p.m. ET — Steelers -2.5, total 37.5. ESPN gives Pittsburgh 55.4%.
Key to the Game: The AFC North is four teams at 2-1, and the winner leads it alone. Pittsburgh’s new right side gave Rodgers time against Cincinnati. Cleveland’s disguised pressure and Mason Graham are the test of whether that holds. Cleveland drew 10 penalties in the first half against Carolina.
Our Pick: Steelers. Cleveland has been outgained in all three games. Pittsburgh’s rebuilt right side gives Rodgers time to see through pressure the Browns disguise.
Sunday, October 4th
Indianapolis vs. Washington (London), 9:30 a.m. ET — Colts -3, total 47.5. ESPN gives Indianapolis 53.9%. [Confirm designated home team.]
Key to the Game: Whether Jayden Daniels plays. Dan Quinn told The MMQB’s Albert Breer that Daniels is more likely than not to travel to London, two weeks after dislocating his elbow, per Yahoo Sports. Mariota won with quick throws and no turnovers. The Colts’ defense allowed 1,029 yards in its first two games and 223 against Houston. Daniel Jones fumbled three times. Washington’s linebackers are thin after Leo Chenal’s neck injury, and Rachaad White is hurt, per Fox Sports.
Our Pick: Colts. Washington’s 33 points came off three takeaways; without them, it gained 258 yards.
New England at Buffalo, 1:00 p.m. ET — Bills -7, total 48.5. ESPN gives Buffalo 71%.
Key to the Game: Maye has seven turnovers and A.J. Brown will miss at least two more games. Buffalo gave the ball away five times and still won. Christian Benford’s toe matters for the Bills’ secondary.
Our Pick: Bills.
N.Y. Jets at Chicago, 1:00 p.m. ET — Bears -3, total 42.5. ESPN gives Chicago 66.2%.
Key to the Game: Case Keenum beat Philadelphia on Monday in his first start in almost three years, with Caleb Williams out three to four weeks and Bagent back from the concussion protocol. Chicago lost left tackle Braxton Jones to a knee injury. Geno Smith threw for 321 yards in Detroit, and the Jets have lost two straight one-score games to NFC North teams. Breece Hall’s thigh.
Our Pick: Bears.
Jacksonville at Cincinnati, 1:00 p.m. ET — Bengals -2.5, total 51.5. ESPN gives Jacksonville 55%.
Key to the Game: Lawrence has five red-zone touchdowns and no interceptions this season. Cincinnati allowed 411 yards and gave away 10 points on special teams in Pittsburgh. The model and the market disagree; one sentence of reasoning.
Our Pick: Jaguars. DVOA has Jacksonville second, and Cincinnati’s defense just allowed 411 yards. The line likes the Bengals at home; we don’t.
Arizona at N.Y. Giants, 1:00 p.m. ET — Cardinals -1.5, total 44.5. ESPN gives Arizona 55.1%.
Key to the Game: The Giants are 2-1 with Winston, who remains the starter after Monday’s trade for J.J. McCarthy, per John Harbaugh. They lost Brian Burns to a torn ACL. Arizona had 10 penalties in San Francisco, eight in the first half, then scored on anyone it saw in the second.
Our Pick: Cardinals. The Giants’ defense won last week’s game, and it just lost Brian Burns.
L.A. Rams at Philadelphia, [1:00 or 4:25] p.m. ET — Rams -1.5, total 46.5. ESPN gives the Rams 56.6%. [Kickoff: Fox Sports lists 1:00, ESPN lists 4:25. Confirm, and recheck the line after Monday night.]
Key to the Game: Puka Nacua is expected back; Myles Garrett is still out. The Rams gained 482 yards in Denver and went 1 of 4 in the red zone. Philadelphia has no takeaways in three games and gained 62 yards after halftime in Chicago.
Our Pick: Rams. DVOA has Philadelphia 22nd, and Nacua is due back.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay, 1:00 p.m. ET — Packers -3.5, total 39.5. ESPN gives Tampa Bay 53.9%.
Key to the Game: Mayfield is reportedly out two to four weeks with the thumb, per Yahoo Sports, and ESPN expects Jalon Daniels to start for at least three weeks, with practice-squad veteran Easton Stick the only other option. Tampa’s offense had six sacks and went 2 of 17 on third down with Mayfield. Green Bay’s line is missing Zach Bako-Bewele for the season, and the Packers have a penalty problem. The model and the market disagree; one sentence of reasoning.
Our Pick: Packers. Green Bay’s line is last in pass-block win rate, but Tampa Bay is starting an undrafted rookie behind a line that just allowed six sacks.
Tennessee at Baltimore, 1:00 p.m. ET — Ravens -11.5, total 43.5. ESPN gives Baltimore 83.3%.
Key to the Game: Who snaps the ball for Baltimore, and whether the Ravens let an inferior team hang around. Full preview in our Ravens piece.
Our Pick: Ravens.
Dallas at Houston, 1:00 p.m. ET — Texans -2.5, total 47.5. ESPN gives Dallas 55.5%.
Key to the Game: Dallas flew back from Rio and did not return to work until Tuesday, per ESPN’s Todd Archer. Houston is 0-3 with its defense playing well and its offense waiting on Collins. The model and the market disagree; one sentence of reasoning.
Our Pick: Texans. ESPN’s model likes Dallas, but the Cowboys didn’t get back to work from Rio until Tuesday, and DVOA says Houston is better than 0-3.
Miami at Minnesota, 4:05 p.m. ET — Vikings -10, total 38.5. ESPN gives Minnesota 82.4%.
Key to the Game: Miami lost De’Von Achane for the season, and Malik Willis came into Week 3 as the most-sacked quarterback in the league. Minnesota’s defense had six sacks in Tampa. Justin Jefferson’s ankle.
Our Pick: Vikings.
Kansas City at Las Vegas, 4:25 p.m. ET — Chiefs -5.5, total 47.5. ESPN gives Kansas City 70.2%.
Key to the Game: Two 3-0 teams. Las Vegas has nine takeaways and 10 sacks and just got Brock Bowers back. Kansas City has not sacked a quarterback in two weeks, per ESPN’s Nate Taylor, and leans on Walker.
Our Pick: Chiefs.
Denver at San Francisco, 4:25 p.m. ET — 49ers -3, total 46.5. ESPN gives San Francisco 77.6%.
Key to the Game: The model rates San Francisco far higher than a three-point line does, likely because the market is pricing the injuries: Bosa, Evans, Trent Williams and Greenlaw. This is also the real opponent that decides our discount on the 49ers. Denver has 10 first-half points in three games and two comeback wins.
Our Pick: 49ers. The line says three points because of the injuries. Purdy’s offense is first in DVOA, and Denver has scored 10 first-half points all season.
L.A. Chargers at Seattle, 4:25 p.m. ET — Seahawks -6.5, total 43.5. ESPN gives Seattle 73.8%.
Key to the Game: Seattle’s turnovers against a Chargers defense that just forced five. The Chargers’ offense has more punts and turnovers than touchdowns this season, per AP.
Our Pick: Seahawks.
Detroit at Carolina, 8:20 p.m. ET — Lions -3.5, total 50.5. ESPN gives Detroit 61.9%.
Key to the Game: Carolina’s injuries, especially Coker, whose absence changes Young’s deep game. Gibbs has touched the ball on every big Detroit drive. Carolina has its bye next week.
Our Pick: Lions.
Monday, October 5th
Atlanta at New Orleans, 8:15 p.m. ET — Saints -2.5, total 48.5. ESPN gives New Orleans 62.6%.
Key to the Game: Penix’s second game against a Saints team that turned it over four times in the fourth quarter Sunday, with Kelvin Banks Jr. on IR and Travis Etienne’s hamstring. The NFC South is three teams at 1-2.
Our Pick: Saints. Penix makes Atlanta a different team, but New Orleans’ collapse was one quarter, and Shough has eight touchdown passes.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.