Last time we laid out a version of the offseason where the Orioles largely run this group back: re-sign Trevor Rogers, add a catcher who plays, find at-bats for Coby Mayo in right field, and hope Dylan Beavers’ glove rebounds.
That’s one path. Maybe you win in the high 80’s.
Here we give another option.
This scenario assumes the front office reaches a harder set of conclusions this winter:
- Rogers isn’t coming back. He tests the market and someone pays him more than Baltimore will.
- They aren’t relying on Bautista and Helsley. One high-leverage arm gets acquired, whatever it costs.
- They don’t believe Beavers rebounds defensively.
- They want a plus glove in the outfield every day. Either an everyday left fielder who can really defend, or an everyday center fielder with Colton Cowser sliding back to left.
- They trade for a controllable starter. Another Shane Baz – quality arm, years of team control, acquired rather than signed.
- They’re done with Jackson Holliday at second base. He’s made available. Blaze Alexander is penciled in at second, with Jeremiah Jackson taking a bench spot.
- Westburg’s health gets settled in Sarasota.
- Samuel Basallo catches 110 games and DHs 20. He’s the catcher, full stop.
- Mayo gets the bulk of the DH at-bats, which means he isn’t playing right field.
- They eat Tyler O’Neill’s contract. Sixteen and a half million dollars, released, gone.
That’s a substantially different team. Let’s build it.
What Changes First
Two of those premises cascade through everything else, and it’s worth seeing why before we start spending.
Basallo catching 110 games eliminates the Ryan Jeffers plan. In Scenario 1, Basallo catches 80 to 90 and the other 70-plus starts go to a $19 million co-starter. At 110, the backup catches roughly 50 and can be a $4 million veteran. That frees $15 million immediately.
It also opens the designated hitter spot, which is exactly what Mayo needs. Basallo takes 20 DH days instead of 50, Mayo takes the bulk of the rest, and the entire right-field problem from Scenario 1 disappears.
But Mayo at DH means right field is empty. Beavers is traded. O’Neill is released. Cowser is moving to left to accommodate the new center fielder. There is nobody in right.
So Scenario 2 doesn’t need one outfielder. It needs two.
The Moves Out
Jackson Holliday. The most consequential decision in this scenario, and the one I’d argue about. He’s 23 in December, controlled through 2030, and coming off a season where his exit velocity sat at 87.0 mph against a league mark of 88.8. The case for moving him is that the contact quality hasn’t improved in three years and Alexander is right there. The case against is that you’re selling the first overall pick at the absolute floor of his value.
If you’re trading him, trade him for something — he’s the headline piece in the package for the controllable starter, not a salary dump.
Dylan Beavers. A 25-year-old corner outfielder with a 24.1% chase rate, a 24.5% whiff rate, six home runs and -9 Outs Above Average. Somebody will buy the approach. In this scenario, the Orioles have decided the glove isn’t coming back and they’d rather be a year early than a year late.
Tyler O’Neill. Released, with $16.5 million eaten. This one costs money and saves nothing – it’s a roster spot, not a payroll move. You do it because a 94 wRC+ and a shoulder that won’t stay healthy shouldn’t block anyone.
Leody Taveras, Ryan Mountcastle, the Eflin option. Same housekeeping as Scenario 1.
And Trevor Rogers, but extend him the qualifying offer anyway. MLBTR projects it at $23.1 million. He’s said he’s excited to test the market and he’ll almost certainly decline – at which point Baltimore collects a pick just after the first round when he signs elsewhere.
The Moves In
Trade for the controllable arm
This is the centerpiece and it’s the hardest thing on the list, because controllable starting pitching is the most expensive commodity in the sport.
The Baz template is the right one: a quality arm with multiple years of control, acquired from a club that’s either rebuilding or has a surplus. Seattle has been the name floated on our board. Tampa Bay reloads this way constantly. Miami, Pittsburgh and Cleveland all have arms and needs.
The package starts with Holliday and Beavers – two young major league position players with control, which is exactly the currency that buys young pitching with control – plus prospects from the tier below the top. Not Anthony Eyanson, Joseph Dzierwa or Caden Hunter, but possibly guys like Trey Gibson, Boston Bateman, Luis De Leon.
Budget roughly $7 million for an arbitration-eligible starter’s salary.
Sign the plus glove in center
Daulton Varsho is the archetype, and he’s available.
He posted +7 Outs Above Average in center field in 2026, with a 91% catch rate against an 89% expectation. He’s played center essentially every day. And because Toronto traded him to Houston at the deadline, he isn’t qualifying-offer eligible — no draft pick, same as Skubal and Mize.
Be honest about what you’re buying. He hit .221/.281/.355 with 12 home runs, a 86.8 mph average exit velocity and a 6.8% barrel rate. His splits were bad in both directions, a .615 OPS against lefties and .644 against righties. FanGraphs wrote a piece this summer noting his sprint speed had fallen from the 28-29 range to 27.2 and his jumps had regressed to average. He turns 31 next season and finished the year on the injured list with wrist inflammation.
This is a glove-first signing at a lineup spot, and that’s the point. He made $10.75 million in 2026 and is coming off a .636 OPS. Two years and $24 million should get it done.
Cowser moves to left, where he’s better anyway, and Baltimore’s outfield defense improves in one move more than every idea in Scenario 1 combined.
Bring back Luis Robert Jr. for right field
Decline the $20 million option, pay the $2 million buyout, and re-sign him at $6 million with playing-time incentives.
Career line against left-handed pitching: .285/.360/.498. Gold Glove center fielder in 2020. Still running 28.9 ft/s. In a lineup that now has Basallo, Cowser, Henderson and Varsho all hitting left-handed, Robert is the right-handed bat that keeps the thing from falling apart against a good lefty – and he’s a plus defender in a corner.
The risk is the same as it was: roughly 113 games a year over four seasons, with a herniated disc and a hamstring in 2026.
Buy a high-leverage arm
We argued against going out and getting a high leverage reliever in Option 1.
Here we say go ahead and target one of Adrian Morejon or David Bednar, at roughly $14 million. Morejon is qualifying-offer eligible, so there’s a pick attached; Bednar isn’t the pitcher Morejon is but comes clean.
The argument for spending here, which I rejected last time, is simple in this scenario: if you’ve decided you can’t plan around Bautista’s shoulder and Helsley’s elbow, then you can’t plan around them. Helsley was shut down September 19th when his throwing program stalled. Bautista’s 2026 was a September cameo after two surgeries. Treating $18 million in committed salary as a bullpen is how you end up patching in June.
Bautista and Helsley become upside rather than relied on.
Sign a backup catcher and a starter
A veteran backup catcher at $4 million who can handle 50 starts and not be an automatic out. Carlos Narvarez finished with under a .500 OPS in 237 at-bats. If you don’t believe his bat rebounds (42 xbh’s in 2025), then go get someone you believe in a bit more. My guess is Narvarez is back.
And a free agent starter. Same conversation as Scenario 1: bid on Tarik Skubal, sign Casey Mize when that doesn’t work. Mize at 3 years and $54 million with an opt-out.
The Money
At $190 million against roughly $126 million committed, there’s about $64 million available.
| Addition | Projected deal | 2027 AAV |
|---|---|---|
| Casey Mize | 3 yrs / $54M, opt-out after 2027 | $18M |
| Traded-for starter | arbitration | $7M |
| Morejon or Bednar | 3 yrs / $42M | $14M |
| Daulton Varsho | 2 yrs / $24M | $12M |
| Luis Robert Jr. | 1 yr / $6M plus incentives | $6M |
| Backup catcher | 1 yr / $4M | $4M |
$61 million, which lands payroll around $187 million.
That’s three million under Scenario 1, which is the part worth sitting with. Not signing Jeffers and not signing Rogers frees $40 million, and that $40 million buys a controllable starter, a closer, a Gold Glove center fielder and a backup catcher.
Swap Skubal in for Mize and it’s $78 million, or roughly $204 million in payroll.
And O’Neill’s $16.5 million is already inside the committed figure. Releasing him doesn’t cost anything new.
The 2027 Roster
Rotation: Mize (or Skubal), Bradish, Baz, Young, the traded-for arm
Bullpen: Morejon/Bednar, Cano, Rico Garcia, Wolfram, Sanders, Hoppe, Walker, with Bautista and Helsley as upside rather than plan
Against right-handed pitching: Basallo C, Alonso 1B, Alexander 2B, Westburg 3B, Henderson SS, Cowser LF, Varsho CF, Robert RF, Mayo DH
Against left-handed pitching: Basallo C, Alonso 1B, Alexander 2B, Westburg 3B, Henderson SS, 4th OF LF, Encarnacion-Strand DH, Robert CF, Mayo RF
Bench: backup catcher, Encarnacion-Strand, Jeremiah Jackson, a fourth outfielder
Thirteen position players: Basallo, the backup catcher, Alonso, Alexander, Westburg, Henderson, Mayo, Encarnacion-Strand, Cowser, Varsho, Robert, Jackson, and a fourth outfielder.
What Has To Go Right
Option 2 could be the more coherent plan. It’s also feels riskier.
Basallo catching 110 games. This deserves more scrutiny. The O’s have to decide how many games they want him catching. If the workload wears down his bat – which is the normal outcome for young catchers pushed to 110 games – you’ve degraded your best young hitter. If he gets hurt and misses real time you don’t have a great option behind him.
Alexander at second base every day. He hit .302 with a 120 wRC+ in 2026, which is why this feels safe. It isn’t. He ran a .385 BABIP, which is not a repeatable number. In this scenario is he a really good bench guy being asked to be a starter?
The offense gets worse. I think the first option we presented gives the O’s a better offense. Here you are punting some offense to buy run prevention.
Westburg’s arm. If spring training reveals he can’t make the throw from third, he moves to second, and the chain resolves without much trouble: Alexander slides to third, where he started games in 2026 anyway, and Encarnacion-Strand and Mayo are both behind him. That’s three answers for one hole. Alexander started at six different positions last season, and being the piece that moves is arguably his best use.
With Holliday traded, the infield becomes almost entirely right-handed: Alonso, Alexander, Westburg, Mayo and Encarnacion-Strand, with only Henderson hitting from the left side. Cowser, Varsho and Basallo keep the overall lineup balanced, but there’s no left-handed answer left on the dirt.
Other thoughts.
Trading Holliday and Beavers for a controllable starter is swapping control for control, albeit less unless prospects also come back alongside the arm.
Do Holliday and Beavers by themselves land a good controllable starter? Two uncertain young position players with upside but questions. If they’re not enough, that’s when the O’s would have to add sweeteners.
Should also be noted that the positional depth thins out a bit if you trade both.
Also, have to think about the attrition rate of pitchers. Converting position-player control years into pitcher control years is a genuine transfer of risk, because pitchers break more often and more permanently. This organization needs no reminder of that.
None of that makes the trade wrong. It makes it a bet on a specific arm rather than a bet on a category. Get the evaluation right and Baltimore is deeper in 2029 than it is today.
Which One
Option 1 feels like the more likely plan to me. It keeps the young position players, it fixes the catching, and it gets Mayo his at-bats without giving anything up.
Option 2 might build a better baseball team. The bullpen adds a real weapon, and the outfield defense goes from a liability to a strength. If Basallo holds up and Alexander is real, that could be a 90 win team.
I said the priority should be building a team that looks like it should win 90 to 95 in March.
Do either of these options get you there?
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.