All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.
Three teams are unbeaten after four weeks, and they got there three different ways. San Francisco has not allowed a sack all season, Kansas City has the league’s leading rusher in Kenneth Walker III, and Minnesota has scored one offensive touchdown since Week 1.
Eleven of the 16 games finished within one score, per NFL.com. Three were fourth-quarter comebacks by teams facing 1-3: the Rams in Philadelphia, the Cowboys in Houston and the Patriots in Buffalo. Houston, Tampa Bay, the Chargers, Tennessee and Miami are 0-4.
There were injuries to some of the biggest names. Lamar Jackson (ankle), Ja’Marr Chase (concussion), Saquon Barkley (hamstring) and Patrick Surtain II (ankle) all left games, and Washington lost a second quarterback in three weeks.
Week 4 Review
Each game lists the line, our pick, what we expected to decide it and what did. Lines are DraftKings from late in the week, via ESPN’s Week 4 preview, with our published line in parentheses where it moved. [LINE TK] marks a kickoff line we don’t have.
Thursday
Deshaun Watson led a go-ahead fourth-quarter drive for the third straight week, and Andre Szmyt’s career-long 56-yard field goal won it with 10 seconds left. Cleveland led 21-7 late in the first half before Pittsburgh tied it at 24 with 1:44 to play.
The Browns sacked Aaron Rodgers five times and hit him 10 times. Rodgers threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns with two interceptions, the second on a Hail Mary. Cleveland is 3-1 for the first time since 2001.
Steelers -2.5 when we published), total 37.5. ESPN had Pittsburgh at 55.4%. Our Pick: Steelers.
Expected: Pittsburgh’s rebuilt right side against Cleveland’s disguised pressure and Mason Graham. What decided it: The pressure, without Graham, who left in the first quarter with a knee injury. Mike McCarthy described five-man pressure with man coverage from the start, and Pittsburgh’s protection never solved it.
London
Washington led 6-0 when Marcus Mariota was sacked on third down and left with a right knee injury. Dan Quinn said it looks like an MCL. Seventh-round rookie Athan Kaliakmanis played the rest and went 15 of 33 with a 47-yard touchdown and an interception.
Jonathan Taylor ran for 95 yards and two touchdowns. The Colts won despite two Daniel Jones turnovers and 143 passing yards. Jayden Daniels (elbow) and Terry McLaurin (hamstring) were inactive.
Colts -3.5 late in the week (-3 when we published), total 47.5. ESPN had Indianapolis at 53.9%. Our Pick: Colts.
Expected: Whether Daniels would play, and whether Washington could score without takeaways. What decided it: Daniels didn’t play, and Washington was on its third quarterback after two drives. The Commanders settled for field goals on two red-zone trips before the injury and scored once after it.
Sunday Early
Drake Maye had two first-half turnovers, then threw three touchdown passes. The last was a one-handed catch by Efton Chism III with 1:50 left, at the end of a 73-yard drive that began with New England down five.
Josh Allen’s deep throw for Joshua Palmer was intercepted by Craig Woodson on the next drive. Buffalo blitzed Maye 15 times, and he went 9 of 14 for 118 yards and all three touchdowns against it, per Bill Barnwell of ESPN. Mike Vrabel went for it twice on fourth down in field-goal range, and both drives ended in touchdowns.
Bills -6.5 late in the week (-7 when we published), total 48.5. ESPN had Buffalo at 71%. Our Pick: Bills.
Expected: Maye’s turnovers without A.J. Brown. What decided it: Maye had two turnovers and won anyway, because Allen had the one that mattered. New England played without Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore, and Buffalo lost DJ Moore and Ed Oliver during the game.
Chicago ran 89 plays to New York’s 32, held the ball for nearly 43 minutes and did not punt. Its 34 first downs outnumbered the Jets’ plays, which had not happened in the NFL since 1999.
Kyle Monangai carried 30 times for 146 yards and two touchdowns. Tyson Bagent threw for a career-high 268 yards after Case Keenum took a ceremonial first snap. The Jets went 0 for 7 on third down, though Minkah Fitzpatrick ended their record 20-game interception drought.
Bears -3.5 late in the week (-3 when we published), total 43.5 (42.5 when we published). ESPN had Chicago at 66.2%. Our Pick: Bears.
Expected: Keenum or Bagent without left tackle Braxton Jones, and Geno Smith’s form. What decided it: Neither quarterback question. Chicago ran for 232 yards, per CBS Sports’ Week 4 grades, and Smith had the ball for 17 minutes.
Jacksonville stopped Chase Brown a yard short on fourth-and-10 with 50 seconds left. Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards but had two interceptions, one returned 45 yards to set up a touchdown and one in the red zone.
Trevor Lawrence went 18 of 23 for 227 yards and beat Cincinnati for the first time in four tries. The Bengals lost Ja’Marr Chase to a concussion in the second quarter and ran for 23 yards. The officials called 24 penalties for 244 yards.
Bengals -2.5, total 51.5. ESPN had Jacksonville at 55%. Our Pick: Jaguars.
Expected: DVOA’s No. 2 team against a defense that had just allowed 411 yards. What decided it: Jacksonville’s defense, not Cincinnati’s. The Jaguars gave up 428 passing yards and still made two red-zone stops, and their interception streak reached nine games, a franchise record.
Arizona led 14-3 after 12 minutes and gained 138 yards the rest of the way. Jameis Winston threw three touchdown passes and two interceptions, and Malik Nabers caught six passes for 112 yards.
Jacoby Brissett threw three interceptions. Deonte Banks returned the last one 98 yards for a touchdown on the final play. The Giants are alone in first place in the NFC East.
Cardinals -2.5 late in the week (-1.5 when we published), total 44.5. ESPN had Arizona at 55.1%. Our Pick: Cardinals.
Expected: The Giants’ defense without Brian Burns. What decided it: That defense. It intercepted Brissett three times, got a first career interception from rookie Arvell Reese, and ended a game with a red-zone interception for the second straight week.
Philadelphia led 20-10 with fourth-and-goal at the 2 midway through the fourth quarter, went for it and threw incomplete. The Rams then drove 98 and 79 yards for Kyren Williams touchdowns, the second with 1:10 left.
The Eagles went 0 for 12 on third down and gained 172 yards. They played without DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and Lane Johnson, then lost Saquon Barkley to a hamstring injury in the first quarter. Matthew Stafford threw two more interceptions and has six.
Rams -3 late in the week (-1.5 when we published), total 43.5 (46.5 when we published). ESPN had the Rams at 56.6%. Our Pick: Rams.
Expected: Puka Nacua’s return, and an Eagles team that was 22nd in DVOA with no takeaways. What decided it: Nacua caught nine passes for 125 yards, most of it after halftime. The Eagles got their first two takeaways and still lost, because the Rams blitzed Jalen Hurts on half his dropbacks and he went 5 of 16 against it, per Barnwell.
Jordan Love threw two short touchdown passes, and Green Bay survived two fourth-quarter turnovers deep in Tampa Bay territory. Jalon Daniels, an undrafted rookie making his first start, threw two interceptions that became 10 Packers points.
Love was hit twice after taking 31 hits in three games, with Laken Tomlinson the fourth player to start at left guard. Todd Bowles passed up a 65-yard field goal try on the Buccaneers’ last possession. Green Bay lost linebacker Edgerrin Cooper to an Achilles injury.
Packers -3.5, total 38.5 (39.5 when we published). ESPN had Tampa Bay at 53.9%. Our Pick: Packers.
Expected: Daniels behind a line that had allowed six sacks. What decided it: Daniels’ two interceptions. The surprise was the other line: Green Bay’s, last in pass block win rate, kept Love clean.
Baltimore led 24-7 at halftime on Lamar Jackson’s 222 yards and two touchdown passes, plus Tyler Loop’s 64-yard field goal on the last play of the half. Jackson hurt his left ankle on the snap before the kick and did not return.
Tyler Huntley went 8 of 9 for 63 yards, and the Ravens did not score again. Tennessee was stopped on fourth-and-goal from the 2, lost a Carnell Tate fumble and scored late to get within six. Baltimore had 13 penalties for 131 yards.
Ravens -11.5, total 42.5 (43.5 when we published). ESPN had Baltimore at 83.3%. Our Pick: Ravens.
Expected: Baltimore’s center position, and whether it let Tennessee hang around. What decided it: The first half. The line question got worse: the Ravens are down to their fourth option at center and their third at right guard, per ESPN’s Jamison Hensley.
CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes for 189 yards, the last a 12-yard touchdown in the final minute. Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards and went 8 of 11 on the 74-yard winning drive, per Barnwell.
Houston led 16-6 at halftime and 23-13 in the third quarter. Javonte Williams ran for three second-half touchdowns, and Kamari Lassiter gave up a 53-yard catch and two penalties on one drive. C.J. Stroud threw for 347 yards, and Nico Collins returned with 118 yards and two touchdowns.
Texans -3 late in the week (-2.5 when we published), total 48.5 (47.5 when we published). ESPN had Dallas at 55.5%. Our Pick: Texans.
Expected: Dallas’ travel from Rio, and DVOA saying Houston was better than 0-3. What decided it: Houston’s coverage. Every one of Lamb’s catches came against zone, per Barnwell. The Texans press on 25% of snaps after 56% last season, per ESPN’s DJ Bien-Aime.
Sunday Late
Will Reichard kicked five field goals, and Minnesota is 4-0 without an offensive touchdown in its last two games. T.J. Hockenson caught 13 passes for 119 yards and slid short of the goal line on the last one to run out the clock.
Miami had 76 yards at halftime, then got a 53-yard Ollie Gordon run and a Gordon touchdown to make it 12-10. A 68-yard Malik Willis touchdown pass was wiped out by an illegal-touching penalty. The Vikings held the ball for 14 of the final 15 minutes.
Vikings -10.5 late in the week (-10 when we published), total 38.5. ESPN had Minnesota at 82.4%. Our Pick: Vikings.
Expected: Minnesota’s pass rush against Willis, without De’Von Achane. What decided it: That, barely. Willis went 9 of 17 for 85 yards and lost a fumble on one of Dallas Turner’s two sacks. Kyler Murray was sacked four times by a defense that had no sacks all season.
Kenneth Walker III ran for 177 yards and two touchdowns, including a 76-yard run that set up Kansas City’s first lead. Las Vegas led 19-17 with 4:53 left. Tyquan Thornton’s 55-yard catch set up Walker’s go-ahead score, and a fumbled kickoff handed Walker another.
Kirk Cousins threw for 365 yards and two touchdowns and was intercepted near midfield at the end. Thornton dislocated his left ankle on the long catch, and Rashee Rice left with a hamstring injury.
Chiefs -4.5 late in the week (-5.5 when we published), total 47.5. ESPN had Kansas City at 70.2%. Our Pick: Chiefs.
Expected: Las Vegas’ takeaways and sacks against Walker and Patrick Mahomes. What decided it: Walker, and a takeaway going the other way. The Raiders ran for 72 yards at 2.8 a carry. Klint Kubiak also took a field goal off the board for a fourth-and-2 that failed, per the Ringer Staff.
San Francisco had three points on its first seven possessions, then scored touchdowns on three straight after Marvin Mims Jr. fumbled a punt return. George Kittle’s 56-yard touchdown on a screen with 2:15 left answered Denver’s only touchdown.
Brock Purdy went 19 of 30 for 218 yards with no sacks and no turnovers. Denver finished without both starting cornerbacks, Patrick Surtain II (ankle) and Riley Moss (ribs).
49ers -3, total 47.5 (46.5 when we published). ESPN had San Francisco at 77.6%. Our Pick: 49ers.
Expected: San Francisco’s injuries against Denver’s slow starts, with the 49ers facing the real opponent our rankings discount was waiting for. What decided it: Denver’s slow start held: three first-half points, and 13 in four first halves. The 49ers passed the test without Nick Bosa, and the discount is gone.
Both teams threw an interception on their first play from scrimmage. Seattle led 27-6 in the third quarter and sealed it when Justin Herbert was sacked and fumbled in the final two minutes.
Herbert threw two interceptions and was sacked four times, and Joe Alt left in the second quarter with a neck injury. The teams combined for 30 penalties and 280 yards. Seattle’s 150 penalty yards set a franchise record.
Seahawks -7 late in the week (-6.5 when we published), total 42.5 (43.5 when we published). ESPN had Seattle at 73.8%. Our Pick: Seahawks.
Expected: Seattle’s turnovers against a defense that had forced five. What decided it: The other team’s turnovers. Los Angeles gave the ball away four times, including a muffed punt that Seattle turned into a touchdown on the next play.
Sunday Night
Bryce Young completed his first 11 passes and finished 29 of 41 for 329 yards and two touchdowns. Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 passes for 192 yards, both career highs, and Chuba Hubbard ran for 122 yards and two scores.
Jared Goff threw for 412 yards, but Detroit could not get a first down on its last drive, which started at its 13 with 2:12 left. Carolina played without Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette, both starting cornerbacks and both starting tackles.
Lions -3.5, total 51.5 (50.5 when we published). ESPN had Detroit at 61.9%. Our Pick: Lions.
Expected: Carolina without Coker, and how much Detroit got from Jahmyr Gibbs. What decided it: Young had the best EPA per dropback of any quarterback in Week 4, per the Ringer Staff, and Gibbs was held to 77 yards from scrimmage.
Monday Night
Bijan Robinson scored from 59 yards on Atlanta’s third play and finished with 145 yards and two touchdowns. Brian Robinson Jr. added three short touchdowns, and the Falcons outrushed New Orleans 205 to 50.
Michael Penix Jr. went 15 of 20 for 223 yards and a touchdown. Atlanta has scored 80 points in two games since he returned. The Saints missed a field goal and lost a fumble at their own 22 while falling behind 14-0.
Saints -2.5, total 47.5 (48.5 when we published). ESPN had New Orleans at 62.6%. Our Pick: Saints.
Expected: Penix’s second game against the Saints’ turnovers. What decided it: The run game. Penix was clean, the turnover that mattered was New Orleans’, and the Saints have allowed almost 600 rushing yards in four games, per Fox Sports.
Power Rankings
San Francisco is first on all five lists, ours included. Pre is our preseason rank, and last week’s rank is in parentheses in each note. The outside columns are FTN’s DVOA, ESPN, NFL.com and Pete Prisco of CBS Sports. DVOA now uses 2026 opponent adjustments, at 40% strength.
| BSL | Team | Rec | Pre | DVOA | ESPN | NFL.com | Prisco |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 4-0 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 4-0 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3-1 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| 6 | Baltimore Ravens | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Los Angeles Rams | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 9 |
| 8 | Chicago Bears | 3-1 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 8 |
| 9 | Minnesota Vikings | 4-0 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 3 |
| 10 | Denver Broncos | 2-2 | 6 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 11 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Raiders | 3-1 | 29 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 10 |
| 12 | Dallas Cowboys | 2-2 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 12 |
| 13 | Cincinnati Bengals | 2-2 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 9 | 14 |
| 14 | Detroit Lions | 2-2 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 20 |
| 15 | Carolina Panthers | 2-2 | 23 | 9 | 18 | 14 | 18 |
| 16 | New England Patriots | 2-2 | 10 | 26 | 14 | 18 | 15 |
| 17 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2-2 | 4 | 22 | 13 | 21 | 13 |
| 18 | Atlanta Falcons | 2-2 | 26 | 15 | 25 | 15 | 19 |
| 19 | Cleveland Browns | 3-1 | 31 | 24 | 19 | 17 | 16 |
| 20 | New York Giants | 3-1 | 24 | 23 | 17 | 19 | 17 |
| 21 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2-2 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 25 | 21 |
| 22 | Indianapolis Colts | 2-2 | 22 | 20 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
| 23 | Houston Texans | 0-4 | 7 | 17 | 24 | 23 | 26 |
| 24 | New Orleans Saints | 1-3 | 21 | 30 | 21 | 20 | 23 |
| 25 | Green Bay Packers | 2-2 | 13 | 27 | 23 | 27 | 24 |
| 26 | New York Jets | 1-3 | 28 | 25 | 26 | 24 | 29 |
| 27 | Washington Commanders | 1-3 | 25 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 28 |
| 28 | Arizona Cardinals | 1-3 | 30 | 19 | 29 | 26 | 25 |
| 29 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0-4 | 18 | 18 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| 30 | Los Angeles Chargers | 0-4 | 8 | 31 | 28 | 31 | 27 |
| 31 | Tennessee Titans | 0-4 | 27 | 29 | 31 | 32 | 31 |
| 32 | Miami Dolphins | 0-4 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 29 | 32 |
1. 49ers (2). They beat a real opponent without Nick Bosa, which was the test we were waiting on. FTN has them 11th among all teams through four games since 1977.
2. Chiefs (3). Kenneth Walker III leads the league with 537 rushing yards, per ESPN. The defense has no sacks in three straight games, and Tyquan Thornton and Rashee Rice were hurt going into the bye.
3. Seahawks (4). First in pass rush win rate and in defensive DVOA. FTN also says they have played one of the three easiest schedules and have the hardest one left, starting with San Francisco.
4. Jaguars (6). Second in DVOA and 11-1 in their last 12 regular-season games. We keep them a spot behind Seattle for one more week.
5. Bills (1). Seven turnovers in two weeks and a defense that is 26th in DVOA. The offense is still second.
6. Ravens (5). Lamar Jackson is day-to-day with a left ankle injury, and the line is on its fourth center. Thirteen penalties nearly let Tennessee back in.
7. Rams (9). FTN gave them a 96% post-game win expectancy in a game they trailed by 10 midway through the fourth quarter. Their special teams are last in DVOA, and Matthew Stafford has six interceptions.
8. Bears (11). Three wins with three quarterbacks, the league’s best rushing total, and a defense that is sixth in DVOA after FTN projected it last.
9. Vikings (8). They are 4-0 and 10th in DVOA: 31st on offense, second on defense, first on special teams. FTN’s list of the weakest 4-0 teams does include two champions.
10. Broncos (7). The hardest schedule so far, per FTN, and 13 first-half points in four games. Both starting cornerbacks left Sunday’s game.
11. Raiders (12). They lost by three to Kansas City and moved up a spot. The caution is FTN’s: no team has played an easier schedule.
12. Cowboys (15). Sixth on offense and last on defense in DVOA. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb won a game in which the defense allowed 30.
13. Bengals (10). Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards and the run game added 23. Ja’Marr Chase has to clear the concussion protocol.
14. Lions (13). They have allowed at least 30 points in every game, per ESPN, and are 30th in defensive DVOA. The pass rush is fourth in win rate, so the front is not the problem.
15. Panthers (21). The biggest rise on the board. They are ninth in DVOA, Bryce Young is playing the best football of his career without either starting tackle, and the bye should bring both back.
16. Patriots (24). Drake Maye’s first good game of the season came on the road, without Christian Gonzalez or Christian Barmore. He still leads the league with nine turnovers, per ESPN.
17. Eagles (14). No second-half points in two weeks and 0 for 12 on third down. Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are all hurt, and Jacksonville is next, in London.
18. Falcons (25). Eighty points in two games with Michael Penix Jr., and third in pass rush win rate. Baltimore, Chicago and San Francisco all visit Atlanta next, per NFL.com.
19. Browns (18). They are 3-1 and still 24th in DVOA, so three teams pass them. Deshaun Watson has three straight fourth-quarter go-ahead drives; Mason Graham’s knee is the concern.
20. Giants (22). First place in the NFC East and 31st in ESPN’s FPI. The defense has ended two straight games with red-zone interceptions.
21. Steelers (16). They lost in Cleveland, lost Derrick Harmon for a few weeks and traded Joey Porter Jr. to Dallas. The pass rush is 25th in win rate.
22. Colts (23). They are 2-2 with the league’s second-lowest yards per play, per ESPN. Daniel Jones has turned the ball over in every game.
23. Texans (20). They are 0-4 and 17th in DVOA, the third-best 0-4 team since 1977 by FTN’s count. The pass defense has fallen from fifth to 28th in yards allowed, per ESPN.
24. Saints (17). We had them winning the NFC South. They are 1-3 and 30th in DVOA, and they just allowed 205 rushing yards at home.
25. Packers (27). Last in rushing, with no rushing touchdown, per ESPN. Jordan Love was hit only twice in Tampa, but Edgerrin Cooper is out for the season and the Bears are next.
26. Jets (19). Thirty-two plays in Chicago, and three straight losses since the opener.
27. Commanders (26). They are down to their third quarterback, and ESPN reports optimism about Jayden Daniels for Week 6, not Week 5.
28. Cardinals (28). Three straight losses with at least 30 points allowed in each, per CBS Sports. DVOA still has them 19th.
29. Buccaneers (30). All four losses are by one score, and FTN has them 18th. Baker Mayfield is out three to six weeks, per ESPN.
30. Chargers (29). Last in offensive DVOA and 30th in pass block win rate, and Joe Alt is hurt. Justin Herbert has six interceptions.
31. Titans (31). Three straight losses by six points or fewer, per CBS Sports. Cam Ward topped 200 yards for the first time, and rookie Carnell Tate had 145.
32. Dolphins (32). Their four opponents are a combined 15-1. The defense got its first four sacks of the season in Minnesota.
Projected Win Totals
Sixty-four wins are banked through four weeks, and the other 208 are projected here; the totals sum to 272. The Week 4 column is what we published last week.
| Team | Rec | Week 4 | Week 5 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 3-1 | 12-5 | 12-5 | Hold; division |
| Patriots | 2-2 | 8-9 | 9-8 | Up one; first team out |
| Jets | 1-3 | 7-10 | 6-11 | Down one |
| Dolphins | 0-4 | 2-15 | 2-15 | Hold |
| Ravens | 3-1 | 11-6 | 11-6 | Hold; division, No. 4 seed |
| Bengals | 2-2 | 10-7 | 10-7 | Hold; wild card |
| Steelers | 2-2 | 9-8 | 8-9 | Down one |
| Browns | 3-1 | 8-9 | 8-9 | Hold |
| Jaguars | 3-1 | 11-6 | 12-5 | Up one; division |
| Colts | 2-2 | 7-10 | 7-10 | Hold |
| Texans | 0-4 | 7-10 | 6-11 | Down one |
| Titans | 0-4 | 4-13 | 3-14 | Down one |
| Chiefs | 4-0 | 12-5 | 13-4 | Up one; division, No. 1 seed |
| Broncos | 2-2 | 10-7 | 10-7 | Hold; wild card |
| Raiders | 3-1 | 10-7 | 10-7 | Hold; wild card |
| Chargers | 0-4 | 5-12 | 4-13 | Down one |
| Cowboys | 2-2 | 9-8 | 10-7 | Up one; takes the division |
| Eagles | 2-2 | 10-7 | 9-8 | Down one; loses the division |
| Giants | 3-1 | 6-11 | 8-9 | Up two |
| Commanders | 1-3 | 6-11 | 5-12 | Down one |
| Vikings | 4-0 | 12-5 | 12-5 | Hold; division, No. 2 seed |
| Bears | 3-1 | 9-8 | 11-6 | Up two; wild card |
| Lions | 2-2 | 10-7 | 9-8 | Down one; out of the field |
| Packers | 2-2 | 7-10 | 7-10 | Hold |
| Panthers | 2-2 | 8-9 | 10-7 | Up two; takes the division |
| Falcons | 2-2 | 7-10 | 9-8 | Up two |
| Saints | 1-3 | 9-8 | 6-11 | Down three; loses the division |
| Buccaneers | 0-4 | 5-12 | 4-13 | Down one |
| 49ers | 4-0 | 13-4 | 14-3 | Up one; division, No. 1 seed |
| Seahawks | 3-1 | 11-6 | 11-6 | Hold; wild card |
| Rams | 2-2 | 11-6 | 11-6 | Hold; wild card |
| Cardinals | 1-3 | 6-11 | 5-12 | Down one |
Projected seeds. AFC: Chiefs, Bills, Jaguars, Ravens; wild cards Broncos, Raiders, Bengals; first out, Patriots. NFC: 49ers, Vikings, Cowboys, Panthers; wild cards Seahawks, Rams, Bears; first out, Eagles, Lions and Falcons. We can’t project the tiebreakers between Buffalo and Jacksonville, Dallas and Carolina, the three AFC wild cards, or the three NFC wild cards.
The NFC South. This is the division we had most wrong. The Saints drop three wins and out of the field after losing by 21 at home. Carolina takes the division at 10-7, with a Top 10 DVOA and two tackles due back, and Atlanta rises two more after gaining three last week.
The NFC East. Dallas passes Philadelphia. The Eagles have not scored in the second half for two weeks and are hurt at running back, receiver, tight end and on the line. The Giants rise two wins to 8-9; first place is real, but ESPN’s FPI still ranks them 31st.
Kansas City. The Chiefs were our first team out in August and are now the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Kenneth Walker III is the reason, and the bye comes with two receivers hurt.
The Bears. Up two and into the field. They have won with three quarterbacks, and the defense is sixth in DVOA.
Houston. Down one more, to 6-11. DVOA still ranks the Texans 17th, and FTN gives them one of the easiest remaining schedules.
Holding on the schedule. Cincinnati stays at 10-7 despite losing at home, because FTN has its remaining schedule among the easiest. Denver stays at 10-7 because its 2-2 came against the hardest one.
Top 8 Quarterbacks
This is the first edition of this list. Their historical body of work carries more weight than 4 weeks. When we review this again after Week 8, the 2026 results will be doing more lifting. The season can move a quarterback at each four-week checkpoint, if the form lasts the whole stretch and can’t be explained by his line or his receivers. The first five are quarterbacks who are the reason their teams win.
Two outside lists show where we differ. Mike Sando of The Athletic surveys coaches and executives before the season, and his order is relayed here by Austin Gayle of The Ringer. NFL.com’s QB Index is weekly; this edition was written entering Week 4. QBR is ESPN’s Total QBR through Week 4.
| BSL | Quarterback | Team | QBR (rank) | Sando | NFL.com |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Allen | Bills | 69.5 (8) | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 69.6 (7) | 1 | 2 |
| 3 | Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 81.1 (4) | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Joe Burrow | Bengals | 69.1 (9) | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford | Rams | 58.6 (17) | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Brock Purdy | 49ers | 89.7 (1) | 11 | 1 |
| 7 | Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 83.4 (3) | 7 | 3 |
| 8 | Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | 73.0 (6) | Outside top 11 | 5 |
1. Josh Allen, Bills. Buffalo has seven turnovers in two weeks, and his interception ended Sunday’s game. He also became Buffalo’s career leader in scrimmage touchdowns with his 88th. Two loose weeks don’t outweigh the body of work.
2. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs. He is 4-0 ten months after ACL surgery, as Dan Graziano of ESPN notes. The offense now runs through Kenneth Walker III, and Mahomes has been efficient more than spectacular: 20 of 24 in Miami, two touchdown passes in Las Vegas.
3. Lamar Jackson, Ravens. Fourth in QBR, the best of our first five. He threw for 222 yards and two touchdowns in one half against Tennessee before the ankle injury, behind a line on its fourth center. He is day-to-day, per CBS Sports.
4. Joe Burrow, Bengals. He threw for 428 yards on Sunday with 23 rushing yards of support and without Ja’Marr Chase for a half. His two interceptions, one in the red zone, were also the difference in a five-point loss.
5. Matthew Stafford, Rams. The reigning MVP has six interceptions, two more than all of last season, and is last in the league in QBR on play-action, per Barnwell. He also went 12 of 15 for 140 yards on the two drives that won in Philadelphia. He stays fifth on the MVP season, and the next four weeks decide whether he stays at the Week 8 checkpoint.
6. Brock Purdy, 49ers. First in QBR, with 11 touchdown passes, no sacks taken and no turnovers since Week 1. The standing question is how much of it is Kyle Shanahan’s system. The best answer so far is Gayle’s: through three weeks, no Shanahan offense had started a season better. This is our widest gap from the survey, which had him 11th.
7. Dak Prescott, Cowboys. Third in QBR with the league’s last-ranked defense by DVOA behind him. He threw for 335 yards in Houston and went 8 of 11 on the winning drive.
8. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars. Sixth in QBR, on a team that is second in DVOA and 11-1 in its last 12 regular-season games. He went 18 of 23 in Cincinnati for his first win over the Bengals.
First out: Jared Goff, Lions. He is 10th in QBR, threw for 412 yards on Sunday and was ninth in Sando’s survey. Prescott and Lawrence have been better this season.
Top 8 Offensive Lines
Four of our August eight stay and four go. The 49ers, Bills, Rams and Bears hold; the Raiders, Lions, Chiefs and Bengals replace the Broncos, Eagles, Chargers and Buccaneers. Win rates are ESPN’s through Week 4, with league rank in parentheses.
One caveat covers the whole list: win rate does not capture penalties. Baltimore was flagged 13 times on Sunday, and the Chargers and Seahawks combined for 30.
| BSL | Team | Pass block | Run block | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49ers | 59% (2) | 74% (10) | Held |
| 2 | Bills | 58% (4) | 77% (2) | Held |
| 3 | Raiders | 63% (1) | 74% (12) | New |
| 4 | Rams | 55% (6) | 75% (6) | Held |
| 5 | Lions | 57% (5) | 72% (22) | New |
| 6 | Chiefs | 52% (14) | 76% (4) | New |
| 7 | Bears | 50% (15) | 74% (14) | Held |
| 8 | Bengals | 48% (19) | 78% (1) | New |
1. 49ers. They have not allowed a sack in four games, the first team to do that since the 2005 Colts. Sunday’s shutout came against a Denver defense that had the fifth-most sacks in NFL history last season, per CBS Sports. Colton McKivitz is fourth among tackles in pass block, and Trent Williams is tied for seventh.
2. Bills. The only line in the top four of both team measures. Dion Dawkins is fourth among tackles in run block, and Connor McGovern is sixth among interior linemen.
3. Raiders. First in pass block, with Kolton Miller first among tackles and Tyler Linderbaum 10th among interior linemen. Two cautions: they ran for 72 yards against Kansas City, and Jackson Powers-Johnson missed that game with a groin injury.
4. Rams. Their pass block rank rose from 18th to sixth in a week, and they gained 415 yards in Philadelphia. Warren McClendon Jr. is sixth and Alaric Jackson 10th among tackles in run block.
5. Lions. Fifth in pass block, with Blake Miller 11th and Penei Sewell 13th among tackles. A run block rank of 22nd keeps them from going higher.
6. Chiefs. Creed Humphrey is first among interior linemen in pass block, and Kenneth Walker III leads the league in rushing. They have done it without left tackle Josh Simmons, who has not played this season.
7. Bears. We had them marked for a downgrade after they lost left tackle Braxton Jones. They then ran for 232 yards against the Jets and lead the league with 785 rushing yards, per ESPN. Darnell Wright is sixth among tackles in pass block, and Garrett Bradbury is tied for second among interior linemen.
8. Bengals. First in run block, with Dalton Risner first among interior linemen and Orlando Brown Jr. second among tackles. This is the thinnest entry: they are 19th in pass block and ran for 23 yards against Jacksonville.
Dropped. Denver is 23rd in pass block and 20th in run block, with 13 first-half points all season. The Eagles are still ninth in pass block, with Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata second and third among tackles, but they are 29th in run block and played Sunday without Johnson and Landon Dickerson. The Chargers are 30th in pass block and lost Joe Alt to a neck injury. Tampa Bay is 22nd and 23rd.
First out. Minnesota is third in run block but lost Christian Darrisaw and Donovan Jackson during Sunday’s game. Baltimore is seventh in run block, 20th in pass block and on its fourth center. Atlanta ran for 205 yards on Monday, and Chris Lindstrom is in the top three of interior linemen in both measures.
Charting against results. Houston is seventh in pass block, yet its run game managed 50 yards on 17 designed carries in Week 4, per Barnwell. Pittsburgh is eighth after allowing five sacks in Cleveland. Green Bay is last at 22%, eight points behind the next-worst team, and just kept Jordan Love to two hits.
Top 8 Defensive Lines
This list changes more than the offensive one: three hold and five are new. The Seahawks, Rams and Ravens stay; the Vikings, Falcons, 49ers, Patriots and Broncos replace the Steelers, Bengals, Eagles, Texans and Giants. Win rates are ESPN’s through Week 4 with league rank in parentheses, and defensive DVOA rank is FTN’s.
| BSL | Team | Pass rush | Run stop | Def. DVOA | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seahawks | 69% (1) | 32% (5) | 1 | Held |
| 2 | Vikings | 64% (2) | 33% (2) | 2 | New |
| 3 | Rams | 56% (5) | 33% (3) | 4 | Held |
| 4 | Falcons | 61% (3) | 32% (6) | 8 | New |
| 5 | 49ers | 56% (6) | 27% (24) | 5 | New |
| 6 | Ravens | 54% (11) | 30% (12) | 12 | Held |
| 7 | Patriots | 55% (7) | 27% (26) | 7 | New |
| 8 | Broncos | 51% (15) | 29% (16) | 14 | New |
1. Seahawks. First in pass rush win rate by five points and first in defensive DVOA. They sacked Justin Herbert four times on Sunday, and DeMarcus Lawrence ranks in the top eight among edges against both the pass and the run.
2. Vikings. Top two in all three measures, and the strongest omission from our August list. The caveat stands: they blitz on 68% of dropbacks, per ESPN, so some of this is Brian Flores. Andrew Van Ginkel is fourth and Dallas Turner ninth among edges in pass rush.
3. Rams. They held the Eagles to 172 yards without Myles Garrett, who is on injured reserve after knee surgery, or Aaron Donald, who sat with a back injury. Kobie Turner is third among tackles in run stop. They blitzed on half of Jalen Hurts’ dropbacks, per Barnwell, so the Flores caveat applies here too.
4. Falcons. Third in pass rush, with Maason Smith first and Brandon Dorlus third among tackles. Za’Darius Smith entered the concussion protocol on Monday night.
5. 49ers. Sixth in pass rush and fifth in defensive DVOA without Nick Bosa. Romello Height is tied for sixth among edges and Osa Odighizuwa is seventh among tackles. A run stop rank of 24th is the weakness.
6. Ravens. Trey Hendrickson is eighth among edges and missed Sunday after a procedure on a broken finger.
7. Patriots. Seventh in pass rush and seventh in defensive DVOA, with Milton Williams eighth among tackles. They won in Buffalo without Christian Barmore. They are 26th in run stop.
8. Broncos. The numbers are middling, but they come against the hardest schedule in the league, per FTN. Denver held the 49ers to three points on their first seven possessions. Zach Allen is fifth among tackles in pass rush, and Malcolm Roach is sixth in run stop. This is the thinnest entry.
Dropped. The Giants come off because Brian Burns tore his ACL and is out for the season. Pittsburgh is 25th in pass rush, its defensive DVOA has gone from first to 13th in two weeks, and Derrick Harmon is out for a few weeks. Cincinnati is 17th in pass rush and 21st in defensive DVOA, and B.J. Hill missed another game. The Eagles are 30th in pass rush, though fourth in run stop. Houston is 29th in pass rush even with Will Anderson Jr. second among edges in run stop.
First out. Detroit is fourth in pass rush and 30th in defensive DVOA, which points at the secondary. The Chargers are first in run stop, with Tuli Tuipulotu first among edges, on an 0-4 team.
Where the line isn’t the story. Jacksonville is third in defensive DVOA while ranking 23rd in pass rush and 29th in run stop. Chicago is sixth in defensive DVOA and last in run stop. Arizona is ninth in pass rush and 29th in defensive DVOA.
Three Things Getting Little Attention
Field goal range now starts near midfield. Andre Szmyt won Thursday’s game from 56 yards. Tyler Loop hit from 64 to end a half, a week after winning in Rio from 56. Trey Smack’s 58-yarder was the margin in Tampa, and Brandon Aubrey tried from 62 and 65 in one half in Houston.
The tell is what now counts as a decision. Todd Bowles had to explain passing up a 65-yard attempt, and Szmyt said he asked Deshaun Watson only to reach the 42. A trailing team needs far less field in the last minute than it did a few years ago, and coaches have not all adjusted their clock management to it.
The schedule corrections have arrived. FTN switched DVOA to 2026 opponent adjustments this week, at 40% strength and rising. Denver has played the hardest schedule, against four opponents who are 13-3, per Fox Sports. The Raiders, Seahawks and Ravens have played the easiest.
That reframes three teams. Denver’s 2-2 is better than it looks. Las Vegas’ 3-1 gets tested at New England, then against Buffalo and the Rams. Seattle’s four opponents are 4-12, and FTN gives the Seahawks the hardest remaining schedule, starting with the 49ers on Sunday.
The best teams are winning through their own flags. Four of DVOA’s top 10 were penalized at least 11 times in Week 4: Seattle (14), Jacksonville (13), Baltimore (13) and Minnesota (11). All four won, and all four won by one score.
Those games were closer than the play in them. It also bears on our line lists, because win rate does not see a holding call. If the flags continue, the first place it will show is in close losses by teams the efficiency numbers like.
Week 5 Preview
Fifteen games, with Kansas City and Carolina on bye. We take ESPN’s model over the line once (San Francisco), the line over the model twice (Atlanta, Pittsburgh), and go against both twice (Cleveland, the Giants).
Thursday, October 8th
Tampa Bay at Dallas, 8:15 p.m. ET — Cowboys -8.5, total 47.5. ESPN gives Dallas 86.1%.
Key to the Game: Jalon Daniels makes his second start on a short week. He faces the defense DVOA ranks last, so this is the Cowboys’ chance to show the unit is better than that. Guard Tyler Smith is eligible to return from injured reserve, per Barnwell.
Our Pick: Cowboys.
Sunday, October 11th
Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville (London), 9:30 a.m. ET — Jaguars -6.5, total 42.5. ESPN gives Jacksonville 73.4%.
Key to the Game: An Eagles offense with no second-half points in two weeks meets a defense that is third in DVOA and has an interception in nine straight games. Watch the statuses of Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson.
Our Pick: Jaguars.
Chicago at Green Bay, 1 p.m. ET — Bears -3, total 45.5. ESPN gives Chicago 57.6%.
Key to the Game: The league’s best rushing offense against a defense that just lost Edgerrin Cooper for the season. The other question is whether Green Bay’s protection in Tampa was real or a product of the opponent.
Our Pick: Bears. Chicago has won with three quarterbacks, so the pick doesn’t wait on Caleb Williams’ hamstring.
Houston at Tennessee, 1 p.m. ET — Texans -6.5, total 38.5. ESPN gives Houston 66.4%.
Key to the Game: Two winless teams. Houston’s secondary has blown two-score leads in consecutive weeks, and Tennessee has lost three straight by six or fewer.
Our Pick: Texans.
Cincinnati at Miami, 1 p.m. ET — Bengals -7, total 42.5. ESPN gives Cincinnati 80.3%.
Key to the Game: Whether Ja’Marr Chase clears the concussion protocol and Tee Higgins is available. Miami’s pass rush got its first four sacks of the season in Minnesota.
Our Pick: Bengals.
Las Vegas at New England, 1 p.m. ET — Patriots -3.5, total 45.5. ESPN gives New England 63.8%.
Key to the Game: The league’s top pass-blocking line by win rate against a pass rush that is seventh. Las Vegas also has to run it better than 2.8 yards a carry, with Ashton Jeanty playing through an ankle injury.
Our Pick: Patriots. The Raiders have played the easiest schedule in the league and now travel east for an early kickoff, their third road game in four weeks.
Minnesota at New Orleans, 1 p.m. ET — Vikings -1.5, total 42.5. ESPN gives Minnesota 55.1%.
Key to the Game: DVOA’s 31st-ranked offense against its 31st-ranked defense. Justin Jefferson’s health always matters, especially for a team with one offensive touchdown since Week 1.
Our Pick: Vikings. The Saints just allowed 205 rushing yards, and Minnesota’s defense is second in DVOA.
Cleveland at New York Jets, 1 p.m. ET — Jets -2.5, total 39.5. ESPN gives New York 55.4%.
Key to the Game: Cleveland’s five-man pressure and man coverage against an offense that ran 32 plays in Chicago. Mason Graham’s knee is the Browns’ concern.
Our Pick: Browns. Against both the line and the model. Cleveland has had 10 days off, and the Jets were missing Breece Hall and two pass catchers last week.
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh, 1 p.m. ET — Steelers -2.5, total 44.5. ESPN has it even: Colts 49.9%, Steelers 49.7%.
Key to the Game: Daniel Jones’ turnovers against a Pittsburgh defense missing Derrick Harmon and possibly Jamel Dean, with Joey Porter Jr. traded.
Our Pick: Steelers. Pittsburgh has had 10 days off, and Indianapolis is coming home from London without a bye.
New York Giants at Washington, 1 p.m. ET — Commanders -3.5, total 43.5. ESPN gives Washington 62.9%.
Key to the Game: Washington’s quarterback. Marcus Mariota has a knee injury, and ESPN reports optimism about Jayden Daniels for Week 6, which would leave Athan Kaliakmanis.
Our Pick: Giants. Against both the line and the model. New York is seventh in pass rush win rate, and Washington may also be without Terry McLaurin.
Denver at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m. ET — Broncos -3.5, total 42.5. ESPN has it even: Broncos 50%, Chargers 49.6%.
Key to the Game: A Chargers line that is 30th in pass block and may not have Joe Alt, against Denver’s front. Denver’s own concern is at cornerback, where Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss both left Sunday’s game.
Our Pick: Broncos.
Detroit at Arizona, 4:25 p.m. ET — Lions -4.5, total 54.5. ESPN gives Detroit 69.3%.
Key to the Game: The league’s worst scoring defense against Jacoby Brissett, who threw three interceptions on Sunday. The total is tied for the highest on the slate.
Our Pick: Lions.
San Francisco at Seattle, 4:25 p.m. ET — Seahawks -3, total 47.5. ESPN gives San Francisco 55.7%.
Key to the Game: The game of the week comes down to one matchup. The line that has not allowed a sack faces the pass rush that is first in win rate at 69%.
Our Pick: 49ers. Model over line. San Francisco’s DVOA is more than double Seattle’s, and the Seahawks’ four opponents are 4-12.
Baltimore at Atlanta, 8:20 p.m. ET — Falcons -3, total 43.5. ESPN gives Baltimore 51.8%.
Key to the Game: Lamar Jackson’s left ankle, and a Ravens line on its fourth center against the third-ranked pass rush by win rate.
Our Pick: Falcons. Line over model. The line is pricing the ankle, and Atlanta has scored 80 points in two games.
Monday, October 12th
Buffalo at Los Angeles Rams, 8:15 p.m. ET — Rams -2.5, total 54.5. ESPN gives the Rams 59%.
Key to the Game: Two quarterbacks from our top five who have been loose with the ball. Buffalo has seven turnovers in two weeks, and Matthew Stafford has six interceptions.
Our Pick: Rams. Buffalo’s defense is 26th in DVOA and lost Ed Oliver on Sunday, and Aaron Donald could return.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.