Week 6 took down the No. 1 team on a walk-off field goal in Dallas, settled Georgia and Alabama by three points in the rain in Tuscaloosa and put three top-ten SEC teams in the loss column on the same day. It also gave us the worst week of picks we have had.

Quick Hits

We went 0-5 straight up. Every team we picked to win last week lost, and three of them were favored by at least 9.5 points.

Oklahoma 27, Texas 24. We had Texas first for four weeks and wrote each week that the case against the Longhorns was the offense. The offense finally cost them. Tate Sandell kicked a 47-yard field goal on the final play, and Oklahoma won a game in which it gained 238 yards and scored one offensive touchdown. The other two came on a blocked punt recovered in the end zone and Peyton Bowen’s 42-yard interception return. Arch Manning threw three touchdown passes and two interceptions, and the second one, with 19 seconds left, set up the winning kick. Texas converted three of 14 third downs. John Mateer, whom Oklahoma had talked about benching, completed 18 of 26 passes and hit Isaiah Sategna for 13 and 20 yards to get Sandell in range. It was Oklahoma’s first win over a No. 1 team since 2007. We said the Sooners would cover 9.5 points. We did not say they would win.

Georgia 20, Alabama 17. We ranked Georgia third and Alabama fourth and picked Alabama anyway, on the grounds that home field was worth more than the gap between them. The ranking was right and the pick was wrong. Dwight Phillips Jr. ran for 120 yards, Georgia ran for 206 as a team without Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens, and Gunner Stockton completed 18 of 22 passes for 249 yards, including 9 of 10 on third down. It was Kirby Smart’s first win in Tuscaloosa.

It came with an argument. Late in the fourth quarter, officials did not flag Georgia safety KJ Bolden on what looked like pass interference in the end zone. Bolden sacked Keelon Russell on the next play and Alabama punted. Georgia also recovered all five of its own fumbles. Russell was 16 of 30 for 185 yards, and Ryan Coleman-Williams left the game twice, the second time to be evaluated for a concussion. We called for 59 points and got 37.

UCLA 17, Oregon 15. The game had ten turnovers, and seven of them were Oregon’s. Dylan Raiola completed six passes for 43 yards with two interceptions before Dan Lanning went to Brock Thomas, whose 44-yard touchdown pass to Evan Stewart made it 17-15 with 2:16 left. Oregon got two tries at the two-point conversion because of a facemask penalty, and UCLA stopped Jordon Davison from half a yard out on the second. Wayne Knight ran for 103 yards and scored both UCLA touchdowns. The Bruins lost Nico Iamaleava to a lower leg injury before halftime and finished the game with Ty Dieffenbach. Bob Chesney is 5-0. We said for two weeks that we would move Oregon once we knew its quarterback. Now we know, and the Ducks are out of our twenty. Oregon has to run the table (including winning at Columbus) to make the CFP.

Kentucky 35, LSU 34, in overtime. For the second straight week Will Stein went for two and the win in overtime, and for the second straight week it worked, by the same score. Kenneth Minchey ran it in untouched. Adam Zouagui missed field goals of 42 and 26 yards in the last five minutes of regulation, then made a 33-yarder with 12 seconds left to force overtime. Kentucky played without six defensive regulars and still gained 401 yards on a defense that had been allowing 220.6 a game. We had Kentucky covering in our first draft last week and switched to LSU when SP+ came out. That was a mistake.

North Carolina 21, Pittsburgh 17. We left Pitt out of our twenty at 5-0 because Mason Heintschel was out for the season, and then we picked the Panthers to win by three. Holden Geriner was 27 of 44 for 219 yards with two interceptions in his first college start. Pitt took a 17-14 lead in the second half, and Billy Edwards Jr. answered with a 75-yard touchdown pass to Shamar Easter. It was Bill Belichick’s first win over a ranked opponent at North Carolina.

South Carolina 38, Florida 19. Last week we kept Florida two spots ahead of a Missouri team that had just beaten it by 28, and wrote that one more result like it would flip the order. LaNorris Sellers accounted for five touchdowns, four of them passing, and Dylan Stewart forced two fumbles in his return from a suspension. South Carolina had lost eight straight SEC games. Florida has lost its last two by a combined 47 points, played its second straight game without Vernell Brown III, and heard Jon Sumrall booed at home. The Gators are out of the ranking, and they go to Texas next.

Indiana 20, Nebraska 17. Nebraska led 17-6 early in the fourth quarter after Anthony Colandrea’s 39-yard touchdown run. Josh Hoover hit Nick Marsh for 75 yards on the next snap, then found him again for 44 on fourth-and-1. Marsh had six catches for 187 yards. Indiana ran for 65 yards, its season low, and trailed at halftime for the first time since last year’s Big Ten championship game. It has won 22 straight. Nebraska has lost 31 straight to ranked opponents.

Most of the rest of the ranked teams took care of business. Notre Dame beat Stanford 58-7, with freshman Jonaz Walton scoring on runs of 97 and 40 yards. Ohio State beat Maryland 45-16. Ole Miss won 52-17 at Vanderbilt. Missouri beat Texas A&M 27-6 behind 222 rushing yards from Jamal Roberts. Iowa won 41-24 at Washington on Friday, and USC won 31-23 at Penn State, which is 3-3 overall and 0-3 in the Big Ten. Utah beat Kansas 41-24. BYU beat Iowa State by 14 with 329 passing yards and 109 rushing yards from Bear Bachmeier. Tennessee turned it over three times and won by seven at Arkansas. Houston won 35-16 at Kansas State, and tight end Patrick Overmyer caught four touchdown passes, tying the FBS record for the position. Miami, Texas Tech and Mississippi State were off.

Power Rankings

#	Team	Record	Change
1	Georgia	6-0	Up 2
2	Ohio State	5-1	—
3	Miami	5-0	Up 2
4	Notre Dame	6-0	Up 2
5	Alabama	5-1	Down 1
6	Texas	4-1	Down 5
7	Indiana	6-0	—
8	Texas Tech	5-0	Up 1
9	BYU	5-0	Up 1
10	Utah	5-0	Up 1
11	UCLA	5-0	New
12	Ole Miss	4-1	Up 2
13	Missouri	5-1	Up 2
14	Tennessee	5-1	Up 2
15	Iowa	5-1	Up 2
16	Kentucky	5-1	New
17	USC	6-1	Up 1
18	LSU	4-2	Down 10
19	Mississippi State	4-1	—
20	Nebraska	5-1	—

 

Georgia moves up two, to No. 1. For five weeks the knock on Georgia was that it had not played anyone. It has now won on the road against the team we had fourth. FPI gives Georgia a 95.7 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff, the highest in the country, and a 54.3 percent chance of winning the SEC. The 41-13 win over Oklahoma two weeks ago looks better today than it did on Friday. We would not go as far as some of the coverage, which has Georgia settling every question. It won by three, it recovered all five of its own fumbles, it got the benefit of the no-call, and ESPN notes it allowed six plays of 20 yards or more, its most in a game since 2024. SP+ moved Ohio State past Georgia into first after the game. We think Georgia is the best team in the country. The gap to Alabama is small.

Miami moves up two. The Hurricanes were off. They move because Texas and Alabama lost, and because nothing happened to change what we thought of them. ESPN notes that Miami is first in the country in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Pitt and Duke both lost on Saturday, which leaves Miami as the only unbeaten team in the ACC.

Notre Dame moves up two. The Irish won 58-7, and their win at North Carolina improved when the Tar Heels won at Pitt. FPI now rates Notre Dame first. We keep the Irish behind Miami because we moved Miami past them a week ago and neither has given us a reason to switch back. They play each other on November 7th. Saturday’s trip to BYU is Notre Dame’s hardest game so far.

Alabama drops one. A three-point loss to our new No. 1, with that no-call in it, does not cost much. Alabama falls behind Miami and Notre Dame, who are unbeaten, and stays ahead of Texas. The Tide lost to the best team in the country. Texas lost to a team that came in 2-2. Alabama’s 45-17 win at Kentucky also got better on Saturday night.

Texas drops five. Texas lost to an opponent that gained 238 yards. ESPN has the Longhorns at 5.4 yards a play and 3.7 yards a carry, both worse than 100th in the country. We do not drop them further because the wins over Ohio State and at Tennessee are still two of the best on anyone’s résumé.

Why Ohio State stays ahead of Texas. Texas beat Ohio State, and we have Texas four spots behind the Buckeyes. That needs explaining. The game was in Week 2, in Austin, and Texas won it by one point on a fourth-quarter comeback. That result says the two teams were about even five weeks ago. Since then Ohio State has won four straight, including 31-14 at an Iowa team that is now 5-1 and just recently won by 17 at Washington. Texas nearly lost at Tennessee and then lost in Dallas. The two losses are also not the same. Ohio State lost by one on the road to a team that is still in everyone’s top six. Texas lost on a neutral field to a team that came in 2-2, gained 238 yards and scored one offensive touchdown. FPI rates Ohio State third and Texas sixth, and SP+ has Ohio State first and Texas sixth. The polls and the committee break a tie between teams with the same record by looking at who won when they played. That is a fair way to compare résumés, and Texas has the two best wins between them, over Ohio State and at Tennessee. Even so, résumé SP+ has Ohio State eighth and Texas ninth. We are ranking who we think is the better team today, and we think that is Ohio State. If the Buckeyes lose in Bloomington on Saturday, this order changes.

UCLA enters at 11. The Bruins are 5-0 with three road wins over power-conference teams, and ESPN notes this was their first win at Autzen Stadium since 2004. We slot them behind the three Big 12 unbeatens because Oregon handed them seven turnovers and because Iamaleava’s status is unknown. The models split on the Bruins. FPI ranks them 36th. SP+ has them 18th, and seventh in its résumé ranking.

Kentucky enters at 16. The Wildcats are 5-1 with wins at Texas A&M, at South Carolina and over LSU, and the only loss is to Alabama. Two of those wins came by one point in overtime, which is why they are not higher. FPI has Kentucky 30th and SP+ has it 47th.

LSU drops ten. That is the biggest move of the week and one short of the largest drop we have made all year. LSU is 4-2, and CBS points out that its best wins are now Texas A&M, which is 3-3, and Clemson, which is 3-2. The Tigers have lost to Ole Miss and Kentucky, and both are ahead of them here. They stay in the twenty because both losses came on the road, by a combined nine points, and because FPI still rates them eighth and SP+ ninth. Mississippi State comes to Baton Rouge on Saturday.

Oregon and Florida leave the ranking. Oregon is 3-2 with losses to Oklahoma State and UCLA and has used three quarterbacks in five games. Florida is 4-2 and has been beaten by 28 and 19 in back-to-back weeks. Oregon is not finished affecting the race. FPI still rates the Ducks ninth and SP+ 12th, Dante Moore is still in concussion protocol and could return, and they go to Ohio State on November 7th. As we said above, Oregon would need to run the table to make the CFP.

Texas Tech, BYU and Utah each move up one as LSU falls past them. Utah stays one spot behind BYU until they play on November 7th. Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee and Iowa each move up two into the space Oregon and Florida left, and all four won. USC moves up one after winning at Penn State. Ohio State, Indiana, Mississippi State and Nebraska hold. Nebraska lost, but it lost by three to our No. 7 team after leading by 11 in the fourth quarter. Houston, Oklahoma State, Wake Forest, Arizona and Boise State, all with one loss, are the next group.

The outside check

CBS’s projection of the post-Week 6 AP poll has Georgia first, then Notre Dame, Miami, Texas, Ohio State, Indiana and Alabama. It moves UCLA from 21st to 11th, brings Kentucky in at 19 and has LSU hanging on at 25. It drops Oregon, Florida and Pitt. The real poll was not out at press time. Last week’s projection, which we used on the board, missed in a few places. The AP had Ohio State fifth and Alabama sixth, Texas Tech 11th, Florida 16th, Iowa 20th and UCLA 21st, and it left Kentucky out. It did rank Pitt, at 25.

ESPN’s committee projection goes Georgia, Miami, Notre Dame, Texas, Ohio State, Alabama, Indiana, BYU, Ole Miss, UCLA, Utah and Kentucky, with Boise State taking Kentucky’s bracket spot as the top Group of Six team. CBS’s bowl projection seeds Miami, Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama in the top four and has Notre Dame, Indiana, Utah, Texas, UCLA, Ole Miss, Kentucky and Boise State behind them.

We differ in three places. Both the poll projection and the committee projection keep Texas ahead of Ohio State on the head-to-head, and we have it the other way, for the reasons given above. Neither bracket has Texas Tech in its twelve, and we have the Red Raiders eighth. They have not lost, and they do not play Utah or BYU. And both projections have Kentucky in their top twelve, while we have the Wildcats 16th.

FPI’s post-Week 6 run has Notre Dame first, then Georgia, Ohio State, Miami, Alabama, Texas and Indiana. That is our top seven in a slightly different order. It disagrees with us further down. It has LSU eighth and Oregon ninth, where we have LSU 18th and Oregon unranked. It has Nebraska 12th and Houston 18th. It has Iowa 23rd, Mississippi State 27th, Kentucky 30th and UCLA 36th. FPI is a rating of how good a team is likely to be from here. We give more weight than it does to the results a team already has, which is why UCLA and Kentucky are in our twenty and Oregon is not.

SP+’s October 11th run moved Ohio State past Georgia into first, with Notre Dame third, Miami fourth, Indiana fifth and Texas sixth. It has Utah seventh, ahead of Alabama, which fell two spots to eighth. It sides with FPI on LSU, which it has ninth, and on Oregon, which it has 12th. It moved Ole Miss up 19 spots to 16th and Oklahoma State up 20 to 22nd. It is closer to us than FPI is on UCLA, at 18th. It is further from us on Kentucky, at 47th. As it did a week ago, it has Nebraska, at 14th, well ahead of Iowa at 24th and Mississippi State at 28th, and we have Nebraska behind both. It also has Northwestern, which is 4-1, at 17th. Its résumé ranking goes Notre Dame, Georgia, Miami, Alabama, Indiana and Utah, then UCLA, Ohio State and Texas.

The Playoff Field

Team	Preseason	Now	Change
Georgia	69	92	Up 23
Miami	71	88	Up 17
Notre Dame	78	84	Up 6
Ohio State	76	78	Up 2
Alabama	40	74	Up 34
Indiana	72	74	Up 2
Texas	62	64	Up 2
Texas Tech	64	54	Down 10
Utah	—	46	New
BYU	40	42	Up 2
UCLA	—	30	New
Ole Miss	40	30	Down 10
Tennessee	22	24	Up 2
Iowa	20	24	Up 4
Kentucky	—	20	New
Missouri	—	20	New
USC	33	18	Down 15
LSU	42	18	Down 24
Nebraska	—	16	New
Mississippi State	—	12	New
Group of Six	1.00	1.12	Up 0.12
The field	1.34	1.80	Up 0.46

 

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff, and the Change column is against August. The week-over-week moves are bigger. LSU loses 24 points, which matches the largest cut we have made this season, and Texas loses 19. LSU has two losses with Mississippi State, Alabama and Texas still to come, and CBS and ESPN both describe the rest of its season as a series of elimination games. Texas is still more likely in than out at 64 percent, but it has Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU left and no longer has a loss to give.

Georgia gains 12 points and takes the highest playoff number on the board from Miami, which gains four of its own as the ACC thins out behind it. Indiana gains six, because it is 6-0 and because three SEC teams and Oregon just fell out of its way. Iowa and Missouri each gain six, USC gains four, and Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas Tech and Utah gain two apiece. Alabama gives back four, which is light for a loss, because it is the kind of loss the committee forgives. BYU gives back two with LJ Martin hurt and Notre Dame coming to Provo. Nebraska gives back two.

UCLA joins the table with a 30 percent chance and Kentucky with 20. ESPN’s Playoff Predictor had UCLA at 1 percent in August and has it at 33 now. Oregon, which we gave a 74 percent chance in August, and Florida fall into the field. The field grows to 1.80 and now also holds Houston, Wake Forest, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Pitt. The Group of Six holds at 1.12. FPI gives Boise State a 46.6 percent chance of making the playoff and James Madison 27.1.

Conference Projections

Each number is our estimate of a team’s chance of winning its conference.

ACC. Miami 73 (up 3), Wake Forest 9 (up 6), SMU 6, Virginia Tech 4, Pitt 3 (down 3), Duke 3 (down 4), field 2. Louisville and Virginia fall into the field. Miami is the only unbeaten team left in the league. Wake Forest is 5-1 and 3-1 in the ACC after scoring the last 31 points at NC State, and its only loss is to Miami. Duke lost 28-25 at Georgia Tech when Gavin Strange missed a 33-yard field goal with five seconds left. FPI has Miami at 82.6 percent.

SEC. Georgia 46 (up 18), Alabama 20 (down 4), Texas 14 (down 11), Ole Miss 5 (up 1), Missouri 4 (up 2), Kentucky 3 (new), Tennessee 2, LSU 2 (down 6), Oklahoma 1 (new), Mississippi State 1, field 2. Florida falls into the field. Georgia now holds the tiebreaker over Alabama, and ESPN says FPI gives the Bulldogs at least an 80 percent chance of winning each game they have left. Kentucky is 3-1 in the league. FPI has Georgia at 54.3 percent, Alabama at 23.9 and Texas at 13.5.

Big Ten. Ohio State 42 (up 2), Indiana 34 (up 7), UCLA 6 (new), Iowa 5 (up 1), Oregon 3 (down 12), USC 3, Wisconsin 3 (up 1), Nebraska 2 (down 3), field 2 (down 2). This is a two-team race, and the two teams play in Bloomington on Saturday. The field shrinks because Penn State and Michigan, the biggest names in it, are both winless in the league. FPI has Ohio State at 44.5 percent and Indiana at 41.1.

Big 12. Texas Tech 30, Utah 27, BYU 24, Houston 7 (up 3), Oklahoma State 5, Arizona 2, Baylor 2 (new), field 3 (up 1). Cincinnati and Kansas State fall into the field. Kansas State is 0-2 in the league. Last week we wrote that Cincinnati had taken its first loss without saying to whom. It was to Arizona, which has now won four straight and scored 52 at West Virginia. Houston hosts Oklahoma State on Saturday, and CBS notes that Oklahoma State also gets Texas Tech in Stillwater on November 14th. FPI has Texas Tech at 33.6 percent, Utah at 28.0 and BYU at 21.7.

Pac-12. Boise State 64 (up 8), Oregon State 20 (up 9), Fresno State 7 (down 8), Washington State 4, Texas State 2 (down 5), San Diego State 1 (down 4), Utah State 1, Colorado State 1. Boise won 38-31 at Fresno State in the game we circled in August, with 150 rushing yards from Dylan Riley and 120 from Sire Gaines. Oregon State beat San Diego State 66-14 and has won four straight. FPI has Boise at 68.0 percent, Oregon State at 24.1 and Texas State at 1.4.

Conference Overviews

The order holds for a sixth week: the SEC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the ACC and the Pac-12. Starting this week we also rank four more leagues behind them: the American, the Mountain West, the Sun Belt and the MAC. The SEC had three top-ten teams lose on the same day, which ESPN says has happened only three times in the history of the AP poll. All three lost to other SEC teams. FPI still has ten SEC teams in its top 25, with seven from the Big Ten, four from the Big 12 and three from the ACC. SP+ counts it differently, with nine from the Big Ten, seven from the SEC, six from the Big 12 and two from the ACC. We keep the SEC first because it has four of SP+’s top nine teams and the Big Ten has two.

The SEC has a clear No. 1 for the first time this season. Georgia has Auburn and Florida next and should be unbeaten when the first committee ranking comes out on November 3rd. Behind it, the league spent Saturday reshuffling. Texas lost to an Oklahoma team that had lost by 28 to Georgia. LSU lost to a Kentucky team that had lost by 28 to Alabama. Florida, which beat Ole Miss by 24 two weeks ago, lost at home to a South Carolina team that had dropped eight straight league games. Shane Beamer’s seat cooled and Jon Sumrall’s first bad month began. At Texas A&M, which is 3-3 after starting 11-0 a year ago, Mike Elko used his postgame press conference to go after a fan site. LSU still matters to everyone else, whatever happens to its own chances. Alabama goes to Baton Rouge on November 7th and Texas goes there a week later, and FPI still rates LSU eighth. Missouri goes to Ole Miss, Alabama goes to Tennessee and Kentucky goes to Oklahoma.

The Big Ten gets its game of the year on Saturday, when Ohio State goes to Indiana in a rematch of last year’s conference championship game. Indiana won that one. The surprise is behind them. UCLA is one of two unbeaten teams left in the league, and the other is Indiana. The Bruins host Wisconsin, which has won four straight since losing to Notre Dame. Oregon is 1-1 in the league and hosts Nebraska, where Dylan Raiola played before he transferred. Iowa and USC both won on the road. Penn State is 3-3, the same record that got James Franklin fired a year ago, and Michigan is winless in the league under Kyle Whittingham.

The Big 12 still has three unbeatens and still has not sorted them. Texas Tech was off and hosts Arizona State. Utah never trailed against Kansas. BYU won by 14 without LJ Martin and now gets Notre Dame without him. The league’s best game on Saturday is one tier down, where Houston hosts Oklahoma State with both teams at one loss. Houston is a failed two-point conversion at Texas Tech from being unbeaten. Arizona is 5-1 with its only loss at BYU. West Virginia has lost three straight after a 3-0 start and has allowed 40 or more in all three.

The ACC is down to one unbeaten. Pitt lost at home in Holden Geriner’s first start, and Duke lost at a Georgia Tech team that had not beaten an FBS opponent in six tries. Wake Forest is the best of the rest. Jake Dickert’s team is 5-1 with three road wins over power-conference opponents, and Gio Lopez threw for 303 yards and three touchdowns in Raleigh. North Carolina, 3-2 after winning at Pitt, goes to Duke. Miami comes off its week off to face Florida State. SMU does not play Miami and hosts Wake Forest in November.

The Pac-12 race looks more like Boise State and Oregon State than Boise State and Fresno State now. Oregon State receiver Jesse Legree, a true freshman, has 38 catches for 932 yards and 12 touchdowns in six games. We rank the Pac-12 ahead of the four leagues below because its average team rates higher than theirs in both FPI and SP+, and because FPI has Boise State 29th and Oregon State 49th, which no other league in the group can match. SP+ is cooler on the top of the league. It has Boise 42nd, behind New Mexico and James Madison. Boise’s only loss is by seven at Oregon, Oregon State’s two losses are to Houston and Texas Tech, and Boise beat the MAC favorite, Western Michigan, by 25. The league is not deep. Three of its eight teams are below 100th in FPI. But FPI gives Boise a 46.6 percent chance of making the playoff, the best of any team outside the power conferences.

The American is the deepest of these leagues and has the weakest top. It has no team in FPI’s top 50, but only three of its 14 are below 100th, and its median team rates better than the Pac-12’s in both FPI and SP+. Memphis is 5-1 and 54th, and FPI gives the Tigers a 38.0 percent chance of winning the league, with North Texas at 25.6 and UTSA at 18.3. Both Memphis and North Texas have beaten UNLV. What the American does not have is a playoff candidate. FPI gives Memphis a 6.3 percent chance, the best in the league.

The Mountain West has the second-best team in the group. New Mexico is 4-1 under Jason Eck, 38th in FPI and 29th in SP+, which makes the Lobos the highest-rated team outside the power conferences in that system. Their only loss was 14-6 at Oklahoma, and they have scored 103 points in two games since. FPI gives them a 63.9 percent chance of winning the league. North Dakota State took its first FBS loss, 13-7 at UNLV, and goes to New Mexico on October 24th. Behind those two the league falls off, with five of its ten teams below 100th.

The Sun Belt is James Madison and not much else. The Dukes are the last unbeaten team in the Group of Six after a 27-24 win at Georgia Southern, their first close game of the season. They are 6-0 under Billy Napier, and FPI gives them a 62.0 percent chance of winning the league and a 27.1 percent chance of making the playoff, second to Boise State. The next Sun Belt team in FPI is 83rd, and half the league is below 100th. That thin schedule is the problem for James Madison, though résumé SP+ currently has the Dukes 16th and Boise State 23rd.

The MAC is last by a wide margin. It has no team in FPI’s top 75, and 11 of its 13 are below 100th. Western Michigan, at 4-2 and 76th, is the favorite with a 50.1 percent chance of winning the league, and its losses are to Michigan and Boise State. No MAC team has as much as a 1 percent chance of making the playoff.

The Week 7 Board

Game	Kickoff / TV	Spread	ESPN %	Total
Florida at No. 4 Texas	Sat 12:00 ABC	TEX -10	87.5%	53.5
No. 5 Ohio State at No. 6 Indiana	Sat 12:00 FOX	OSU -4	52.2%	49.5
No. 15 Mississippi State at No. 25 LSU	Sat 12:00 ESPN	LSU -11.5	76.8%	59.5
No. 7 Alabama at No. 14 Tennessee	Sat 3:30 ABC	BAMA -6.5	71.2%	56.5
No. 2 Notre Dame at No. 8 BYU	Sat 7:30 ABC	ND -12.5	78.2%	48.5
No. 16 Oklahoma State at No. 20 Houston	Sat 7:30 FOX	HOU -3.5	74.9%	58.5

 

All times Eastern. All games are Saturday, October 17th. Spreads and totals are from DraftKings, percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor, and each percentage is the favorite’s chance of winning. Rankings are CBS’s projection of the post-Week 6 AP poll; the real poll was not out at press time. For the first time in five weeks, the market and the Match-Up Predictor have the same favorite in every game on our board. They still disagree on how much. ESPN makes Ohio State close to a coin flip at 52.2 percent, where a four-point line implies about 60. It is also less confident than the line on Notre Dame. It is far more confident than the line on Houston, and somewhat more on Texas.

Predictions

Texas 30, Florida 17. ESPN gives Texas an 87.5 percent chance of winning, and FPI’s ratings put the gap at about 15 points in Austin. SP+ makes it about 16. Florida has given up 83 points in two weeks. South Carolina threw four touchdown passes against what the AP called the league’s worst pass defense. Texas has its own problem. Its offense has been the question all season, and it just lost a game in which its defense allowed one offensive touchdown. But Manning threw for 260 yards and three scores against a far better defense than this one, and Florida has played two straight games without its leading receiver. We do not think Texas scores enough to push this over. Texas wins and covers. Under.

What it means. Texas has no loss left to give. Starting with this one, its next five opponents were all ranked in last week’s AP poll, and ESPN points out that a bad loss to Florida was one reason the committee left Texas out a year ago. A second loss to an unranked team would put the Longhorns on the bubble with Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU still to play. For Florida, a third straight loss ends any playoff talk, and Georgia is still on the schedule. Two other teams have a stake in this. Missouri’s best win is over Florida, and Ole Miss’s worst loss is to Florida, so both need the Gators to stop sliding.

Ohio State 24, Indiana 21. ESPN gives Ohio State a 52.2 percent chance of winning, and FPI rates the Buckeyes 2.7 points better on a neutral field, which is about even in Bloomington. SP+ has the gap at 2.8 points and says the same thing. The market has Ohio State by four. We have Ohio State second and Indiana seventh, and we are still taking the points. Indiana has won 22 in a row, beat Ohio State in December and is at home. What worries us about the Hoosiers is the 65 rushing yards at Nebraska. Turbo Richard had ten yards on eight carries, and Ohio State’s defense is better than Nebraska’s. Hoover and Marsh will have to do it again. We think they keep it close and that Jeremiah Smith is the difference late. Ohio State wins, Indiana covers. Under.

What it means. This is the game that decides how the Big Ten race is shaped. FPI gives Ohio State a 44.5 percent chance of winning the league and Indiana 41.1, and the winner holds the tiebreaker. If Ohio State wins, both teams are still in good position. The Buckeyes would have their best win, and Indiana would be 6-1 with its only loss to a top-five team. The risk for Indiana is its schedule. ESPN says the Hoosiers have played the weakest slate of anyone in its top 12, and Ohio State is the highest-ranked team they will see, so a loss leaves them without a marquee win and without another chance at one before a possible rematch in the Big Ten championship game. If Indiana wins, the Hoosiers are close to a lock and Ohio State is the team in trouble. The Buckeyes would have two losses with a trip to USC and a home game against Oregon still to come. ESPN’s view is that a second loss would not knock them out, but it would open the debate and cost them in seeding.

That is why the result matters to the whole league. We give Ohio State a 78 percent chance of making the playoff and Indiana 74, and after them the Big Ten’s candidates are UCLA at 30, Iowa at 24, USC at 18 and Nebraska at 16. Both CBS and ESPN project three Big Ten teams in the field today, with UCLA as the third. An Ohio State win is the safer result for the conference, because it leaves both of its best teams with one loss or none. An Indiana win makes the Hoosiers safe and puts Ohio State one more loss from the bubble, and then a third bid depends on UCLA staying unbeaten without knowing if it has its quarterback, or on Iowa getting to 11-1 with a schedule that may not include a ranked win.

LSU 34, Mississippi State 27. ESPN gives LSU a 76.8 percent chance of winning, and the line is 11.5. FPI and SP+ both make it about 11.5 as well, so the models agree with the market, and the case for Mississippi State is ours and not theirs. Last week we sided with the bigger LSU number and were wrong, and the reasons to be careful have grown. LSU’s defense came in allowing 220.6 yards a game and gave up 401 to a Kentucky team missing six defenders. Mississippi State has had two weeks to get Kamario Taylor’s ankle right, and we held the Bulldogs in our ranking on the belief that the Alabama game was not a fair look at them. This is where we find out. LSU is the better team, it is at home, and Sam Leavitt threw for 275 yards on Saturday. We think LSU wins a game that stays within one score. LSU wins, Mississippi State covers. Over.

What it means. For LSU this is the first of the elimination games. CBS wrote that the Tigers need to win out, and they still have Alabama and Texas at home. A third loss in mid-October would end it. Mississippi State is 4-1, and a win in Baton Rouge would put it back in the playoff conversation, with Texas and Ole Miss still ahead. A Bulldogs win would also help Missouri, whose only loss is to Mississippi State.

Alabama 31, Tennessee 21. ESPN gives Alabama a 71.2 percent chance of winning, and both the line and FPI make it about a touchdown in Knoxville. SP+ is closer, at about four points, after dropping Alabama to eighth. Tennessee is 5-1 and does not know who its quarterback is. George MacIntyre threw for 247 yards with two interceptions at Arkansas, the Vols turned it over three times, and they needed all of DeSean Bishop’s 138 yards to beat a 2-4 team by seven. Alabama has already won by 28 at Kentucky and by 33 at Mississippi State. The thing to check is Coleman-Williams, who left the Georgia game twice. Georgia held Alabama to 17, and we do not think Tennessee’s defense is Georgia’s, but we also do not see the Vols scoring enough to get this to 57. Alabama wins and covers. Under.

What it means. Alabama can absorb the Georgia loss. It cannot easily absorb two in a row, because the trip to LSU is still ahead and Georgia now holds the tiebreaker for the SEC championship game. ESPN’s point is that it is hard to win a debate as a multi-loss team that did not play for its league title. For Tennessee, this is the win its résumé does not have. The Vols are 5-1 with their only loss to Texas, and beating Alabama would put them in the playoff discussion. A loss leaves them at two with South Carolina, Kentucky and LSU still to play.

Notre Dame 27, BYU 17. ESPN gives Notre Dame a 78.2 percent chance of winning. The line is 12.5, and FPI’s ratings make it about 11 in Provo. SP+ makes it only four, and it has BYU’s defense ninth in the country. Notre Dame has won every game by double digits, but it has not played on the road against a team like this. BYU has held its last two Big 12 opponents to ten points each, and Bachmeier just accounted for 438 yards by himself. He will have to, because ESPN reports that LJ Martin will not play. Notre Dame’s Leonard Moore missed the Stanford game with a concussion and is worth watching during the week. We think the Irish win a slower game than they are used to, and that 12.5 is a few points too many at night in Provo. Notre Dame wins, BYU covers. Under.

What it means. Notre Dame has no conference title to fall back on, so its margin is two games: this one and Miami on November 7th. ESPN notes that if the Irish lose both, their place in the field becomes a real question, and the committee would look hard at the rest of a schedule that has not been strong. A win in Provo would be their best of the season and would all but lock them in. BYU does not need this game to make the playoff, because the Big 12 champion gets in automatically. What it changes is the Cougars’ fallback. Beating Notre Dame would give BYU a win that could carry an at-large case if it loses the league, and it would be the Big 12’s best argument for a second bid. Losing means BYU most likely has to win the conference, and that road goes through Utah.

Houston 34, Oklahoma State 27. ESPN gives Houston a 74.9 percent chance of winning, which is a long way from a line of 3.5. FPI is closer to ESPN, with a gap that works out to about nine points in Houston. SP+ is nearer the line, at about four and a half. All three have Houston by more than 3.5, and we side with them. Houston outgained Kansas State 475 yards to 299 on the road, and Conner Weigman and Overmyer connected for four touchdowns. Oklahoma State is 4-1 under Eric Morris, and Drew Mestemaker threw for 304 yards against UCF, but the Cowboys were tied at halftime at home and gave up four touchdown passes. Both quarterbacks are good enough to get this past 58.5. Houston wins and covers. Over.

What it means. This is close to an elimination game in the Big 12 race. Houston already has a league loss, to Texas Tech, and a second one would leave it needing help from three unbeaten teams. Oklahoma State is 2-0 in the league, and a win here would mean its game against Texas Tech in Stillwater on November 14th could decide a spot in the conference title game. CBS already lists the Cowboys with Utah, BYU and Texas Tech as the four teams likely to settle the league. Neither team is in our playoff table yet. The winner will have a case to be.