2026 NFL: Week 6 Review, Week 7 Preview

Week 6 in Brief

The 49ers are 6-0 after holding off Washington on Monday night, and the Chiefs and Vikings are the only other unbeaten teams. Seven underdogs won outright, including Arizona at 12.5 points in Los Angeles and Tennessee at 7 in Indianapolis, for the Titans’ first win. Jalen Hurts is expected to miss the rest of the season with blood clots in his lungs, and the Colts fired general manager Chris Ballard.

FTN’s defensive DVOA returns to the defensive line table this week. The quarterback list returns after Week 8.

All lines from DraftKings. All percentages from ESPN’s Match-Up Predictor.

Week 6 Recap

Seven of 14 games went to the underdog outright, including Arizona at 12.5 points and Tennessee at 7.

Lines are the ones we published before each game.

Broncos 17, Seahawks 14 (OT, Thursday)

Box score · Line: Seahawks -3, 40.5 · Our pick: Seahawks

Expected: Both teams were on a short week. Seattle’s backfield had been fumbling, and Charbonnet was out. Denver was without Surtain and, we expected, Riley Moss.

What decided it: Denver’s pass rush, and Seattle’s quarterback giving the ball away. The Broncos sacked Sam Darnold five times and hit him 17 times, and forced three turnovers. Ja’Quan McMillian intercepted Darnold on Seattle’s first overtime possession, and Wil Lutz kicked the 53-yard winner. Seattle’s one fumble came from a receiver, not the backfield: Nik Bonitto punched the ball from Rashid Shaheed. Denver won with 168 yards to Seattle’s 353; Bo Nix went 17 of 27 for 107. Seattle scored the last 11 points of regulation and tied it on Jason Myers’ 34-yarder with 3 seconds left. Denver played without Surtain and safety Talanoa Hufanga, both inactive; Moss was not among the inactives.

Texans 34, Jaguars 31 (London)

Box score · Line: Jaguars -3, 42.5 · Our pick: Jaguars

Expected: Jacksonville’s red zone after 0 for 3 against the Eagles, against DeMeco Ryans’ defense; Anton Harrison’s knee; Marvin Harrison Jr.’s Houston debut; David Montgomery’s groin.

What decided it: Jacksonville fixed its red zone, and Ryans’ defense still didn’t hold. Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdown passes, and Houston allowed 30 points for the third time this season in Ryans’ first game back calling the defense. The Texans didn’t sack Lawrence once. C.J. Stroud threw three touchdowns, two to Foster Moreau. A too-many-men penalty on a Houston punt, Jacksonville’s third straight week of costly flags, kept one scoring drive alive. Travis Hunter caught a touchdown and intercepted Stroud in the end zone, setting up Cam Little’s 60-yard tying field goal. Stroud answered with a drive to Ka’imi Fairbairn’s 49-yarder at the gun. Harrison caught three passes for 34 yards. With Montgomery inactive, Woody Marks ran for 56.

Bears 31, Falcons 23

Box score · Line: Bears -3, 49.5 · Our pick: Bears

Expected: Caleb Williams’ return and Michael Penix Jr.’s ribs; Atlanta’s run defense after Baltimore ran for 208. Flips if Williams sits or Penix plays.

What decided it: Williams. Penix played, so half our condition came true, but Williams more than offset it. He completed his first 12 passes and finished 30 of 36 for 305 yards, and Chicago held the ball for more than 40 minutes. Kyler Gordon, activated from the physically unable to perform list the day before, had three sacks and two forced fumbles, the last ending Atlanta’s comeback with 2:54 left. Rookie Zachariah Branch lost two fumbles on returns. Chicago led 31-7 before Penix’s late touchdowns. The Bears overcame 12 penalties for 133 yards.

Browns 13, Ravens 10

Box score · Line: Ravens -4.5, 40.5 · Our pick: Ravens

Expected: Lamar Jackson’s ankle; Cam Jurgens’ debut at center against Verse and possibly Mason Graham; Cleveland’s eight sacks allowed, Howard and Concepcion.

What decided it: Jackson didn’t play, and neither did Jurgens; Vega Ioane started at center for a third straight week. Baltimore led 10-0 in the first quarter on Tyler Huntley’s fourth-down touchdown pass to rookie tight end Josh Cuevas and a Tyler Loop field goal, then didn’t score again. Cleveland held Derrick Henry to 58 yards on 17 carries, and Carson Schwesinger forced his fumble at the Baltimore 35 with 12:45 left; Audric Estime scored the tying touchdown four minutes later. After going 1 for 9 on third down through three quarters, the Browns converted 5 of 8 in the fourth, and Andre Szmyt won it from 37 yards at the gun, after a Ravens block of his earlier try was wiped out by an offside penalty. Huntley finished 19 of 31 for 165 yards. Baltimore sacked Deshaun Watson five times, with Trey Hendrickson back from finger surgery, and the teams finished two yards apart, 237 to 235. (Our full review)

Titans 26, Colts 20

Box score · Line: Colts -7, 44.5 · Our pick: Colts

Expected: A Titans offense averaging 10.4 points against a Colts offense that settles for field goals.

What decided it: Both halves of that came true, and the Colts still lost. Indianapolis outgained Tennessee 232-64 in the first half but led only 13-0 after two field goals. The Titans’ offense scored one touchdown; defense and special teams did the rest. Jeffery Simmons forced a fumble on the first play of the second half. Chimere Dike’s 58-yard punt return set up the tying score, and Oluwafemi Oladejo returned a blocked punt for the lead. Joey Slye kicked four field goals. Daniel Jones threw two interceptions in scoring position. It was Robert Saleh’s first win in Tennessee, and the Colts fired general manager Chris Ballard on Monday.

Patriots 26, Jets 19

Box score · Line: Patriots -7, 43.5 · Our pick: Patriots

Expected: Bailey and the eight-sack front against a line possibly without Will Campbell; A.J. Brown’s possible return; New England’s thin cornerbacks.

What decided it: The Jets’ pass rush didn’t show up, and their offense stalled near the goal line. A week after eight sacks, New York had none, even as New England lost Morgan Moses, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown to injuries during the game. Christian Gonzalez returned at cornerback, and the Patriots held the Jets to 0 for 3 in the red zone. Charles Woods intercepted Geno Smith in the fourth quarter, Smith’s first of the season. Drake Maye threw three touchdown passes. Brown’s return was rough: three catches for 27 yards on 10 targets, with three drops.

Saints 34, Giants 27

Box score · Line: Giants -1.5, 45.5 · Our pick: Giants

Expected: A Giants run defense allowing 5.19 a carry against a Saints offense held to 142 yards; New York’s kicking; Tyler Shough’s hand.

What decided it: One kickoff return. The Giants led 10-0 late in the first half. After Daniel Carlson’s 58-yard field goal, Isaiah Stalbird forced Charlie Jones to fumble the kickoff, and New Orleans scored 34 straight points. Martin Emerson intercepted Jameis Winston twice, and Winston was benched for J.J. McCarthy, whose fourth-down throw into the end zone fell incomplete in the final seconds. Shough threw three touchdown passes and ran for another; he says his broken hand affects only handoffs. Cam Skattebo didn’t get a carry, and the Giants’ backs totaled 34 yards. The model was right.

Panthers 25, Eagles 14

Box score · Line: Eagles -1.5, 41.5 · Our pick: Panthers

Expected: Carolina’s passing offense against an Eagles defense that fades late, behind an offense with the most three-and-outs; Ekwonu and Moton back.

What decided it: Both held, and Jalen Hurts’ absence made it easier. Philadelphia had 37 yards in the first quarter and punted on its first five drives, then was shut out in the third quarter; it has six third-quarter points all season. Carolina pulled away in the second half. Bryce Young threw for 281 yards and two touchdowns to Tommy Tremble, and Chuba Hubbard ran for 120, including a 19-yard run on fourth-and-1. Tanner McKee went 26 of 45 for 215 yards. Carolina won despite a franchise-record 13 penalties for 149 yards.

Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19 (OT)

Box score · Line: Steelers -3, 40.5 · Our pick: Steelers

Expected: Irving and a 241-yard run game against Pittsburgh’s run defense; Mayfield not back before Week 7.

What decided it: Pittsburgh took away the run, and Tampa Bay’s rookie quarterback couldn’t make up for it. With no ground game, Jalon Daniels dropped back about 50 times in his third start, went 22 of 43 for 164 yards and was sacked six times. His two fourth-quarter interceptions set up field goals as Pittsburgh came back from 16-3. Aaron Rodgers, sacked five times through three quarters, led four fourth-quarter scoring drives and threw the winner to rookie Germie Bernard with 3:15 left in overtime. That touchdown tied him with Peyton Manning for third all time. Jalen Ramsey’s fourth-down sack ended it.

Cardinals 18, Rams 16

Box score · Line: Rams -12.5, 52.5 · Our pick: Rams

Expected: Arizona’s league-worst 8.5 net yards per pass allowed; the Rams’ kicking.

What decided it: The Rams’ kicking, though not the way we expected. New kicker Blake Grupe hurt his knee making a tackle on a first-quarter kickoff, which left the Rams going for two (they failed) and their punter kicking an extra point. The pass defense we worried about held Los Angeles to 286 yards, much of it by attacking the left side with Alaric Jackson suspended. The Rams didn’t sack Jacoby Brissett on 35 dropbacks and failed twice on fourth down. Matthew Stafford’s touchdown with 47 seconds left put them ahead. A long completion and an unnecessary-roughness penalty set up Chad Ryland’s sixth field goal at the gun.

Chiefs 22, Chargers 6

Box score · Line: Chiefs -8.5, 42.5 · Our pick: Chiefs

Expected: A pass rush that pressures without finishing, against four rookie linemen; Herbert’s turnovers.

What decided it: Kenneth Walker ran for 128 yards and two touchdowns. The Chargers, without Joe Alt, Kayode Awosika and Tre’ Harris, managed two field goals and 259 yards and lost Ladd McConkey to a concussion. Justin Herbert threw his league-leading eighth interception. The Kansas City pass rush finally finished, with four sacks to end a three-game sackless streak. Harrison Butker missed an extra point and a field goal. The Chiefs are 5-0; the Chargers are 0-6 heading into their bye.

Bills 33, Raiders 30

Box score · Line: Bills -6, 52.5 · Our pick: Bills

Expected: A Raiders run game held to 38 yards in New England; Buffalo’s thin cornerbacks; Spencer Brown’s back.

What decided it: Both concerns showed up, and Buffalo’s offense covered for them. Ashton Jeanty ran 10 times for 22 yards, but Kirk Cousins threw for 313 against the Bills’ secondary, and Las Vegas tied it at 23 with 8:07 left. Buffalo answered with a 66-yard drive capped by James Cook’s 3-yard run. Cook ran for 95 yards without a fumble, and the Bills had their first turnover-free game in a month. Josh Allen’s shovel pass to Keon Coleman tied Jim Kelly’s franchise touchdown record. The Raiders scored touchdowns on two of five red-zone trips.

Packers 23, Cowboys 13

Box score · Line: Packers -1.5, 52.5 · Our pick: Packers

Expected: Love’s deep ball against a Dallas defense allowing 72.3% completions and last against the run; no Parsons; Lamb’s quadriceps.

What decided it: Third downs, and Dak Prescott’s interceptions. Green Bay came in last in third-down conversions and Dallas last in third-down defense; the Packers converted nine of their first 10. Evan Williams and rookie Brandon Cisse intercepted Prescott on consecutive possessions inside the Green Bay 30, the second when Lamb slipped. Green Bay led 17-0 at half. Jordan Love threw for 276 yards and ran for a touchdown, and receivers dropped three more potential scores. The line was right.

49ers 23, Commanders 17 (Monday)

Box score · Line: 49ers -7.5, 50.5 · Our pick: 49ers

Expected: Daniels’ scrambling against the defense that sacked Darnold five times; Washington’s second-half defense; Deebo Samuel’s hamstring.

What decided it: San Francisco’s first half, and Washington’s second-half defense, which held this time. The 49ers scored touchdowns on their first two drives, led 20-3 at half and outgained Washington 303-90 before the break. Brock Purdy went 21 of 29 for 264 yards, with a touchdown to George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey ran for two. After halftime San Francisco managed three first downs and 72 yards, and Jayden Daniels threw two touchdown passes to make it 23-17. Malik Mustapha broke up a fourth-down pass to Treylon Burks near the goal line with 1:54 left, and Washington’s last drive ended with an intentional grounding and a sack. Purdy passed 1,500 attempts and became the highest-rated passer in NFL history. With Deebo Samuel out, Mike Evans caught three passes for 94 yards before leaving with Achilles tendinitis; Terry McLaurin was carted off with a knee injury.

Power Rankings

The top two hold. The biggest moves are the Rams (down 6) and the Falcons (down 5), and the Browns (up 5). Our line rankings count here: both Rams lines rank in our top 11, which keeps a 2-4 team at 14, while both Packers lines rank in the bottom four, which holds a 4-2 team behind them.

BSL	Team	Rec	Pre	DVOA	ESPN	NFL.com	Prisco
1	49ers	6-0	14	1	1	1	1
2	Chiefs	5-0	11	2	2	2	2
3	Bills	5-1	3	4	3	3	4
4	Vikings	5-0	19	6	4	4	3
5	Jaguars	4-2	17	3	5	5	8
6	Patriots	4-2	10	11	7	7	9
7	Broncos	4-2	6	14	10	9	5
8	Seahawks	3-3	2	10	6	10	7
9	Bears	4-2	16	15	9	11	13
10	Ravens	4-2	5	8	8	8	10
11	Bengals	3-2	12	5	13	6	6
12	Lions	3-2	9	17	12	12	11
13	Panthers	3-2	23	7	15	13	14
14	Rams	2-4	1	13	14	24	18
15	Packers	4-2	13	18	11	15	12
16	Texans	2-4	7	9	16	14	15
17	Steelers	4-2	20	12	17	17	17
18	Browns	4-2	31	21	19	16	16
19	Raiders	3-3	29	23	18	18	22
20	Falcons	2-4	26	24	22	19	23
21	Cowboys	2-4	15	19	20	26	19
22	Giants	3-2-1	24	28	23	21	20
23	Jets	2-4	28	20	25	25	25
24	Buccaneers	1-5	18	16	28	27	29
25	Eagles	2-4	4	26	21	28	21
26	Cardinals	2-4	30	22	27	22	27
27	Saints	2-4	21	29	24	20	26
28	Colts	2-4	22	25	26	30	24
29	Commanders	1-4-1	25	27	29	23	28
30	Titans	1-5	27	30	30	29	30
31	Chargers	0-6	8	31	31	32	31
32	Dolphins	0-5	32	32	32	31	32

DVOA is FTN’s total DVOA through Week 6. Outside rankings: ESPN, NFL.com and Pete Prisco, CBS Sports.

1. 49ers (1). 6-0, first in all four lists, and Brock Purdy is now the highest-rated passer in NFL history. They were held to 72 yards after halftime Monday, and Mike Evans left with Achilles tendinitis.
2. Chiefs (2). Kenneth Walker ran for 128 yards and the pass rush finally finished, with four sacks. Our second offensive line, but both starting tackles are hurt going to Seattle.
3. Bills (4). Up one. Seven scores on nine full drives in Las Vegas and their first turnover-free game in a month, behind our top offensive line. The defense has allowed 64 points in two weeks (Prisco).
4. Vikings (7). Up three on a bye at 5-0, now sixth in DVOA. Second on our defensive line list, 21st on offense.
5. Jaguars (3). Down two after losing in London. Still third in DVOA, but penalties have now cost them three touchdowns this season (Michael DiRocco, ESPN).
6. Patriots (9). Up three after a third straight win, but they finished Sunday without three offensive linemen and play Thursday in Chicago.
7. Broncos (11). Up four. Five sacks and three takeaways beat Seattle, and the offense is 31st on third down (ESPN).
8. Seahawks (5). Down three after a second loss in five days. Our top defensive line, but Sam Darnold has thrown seven interceptions in four games (Brady Henderson, ESPN).
9. Bears (13). Up four. Caleb Williams went 30 of 36 in his return, and Kyler Gordon had three sacks off the physically unable to perform list.
10. Ravens (6). Down four. Ten points in Cleveland without Lamar Jackson, and FTN gives them the hardest remaining schedule in the league.
11. Bengals (12). Up one on a bye. Fifth in DVOA and fifth on our offensive line list.
12. Lions (10). Down two on a bye, with both lines in our top 11. The defense is still the problem: 25th in defensive DVOA.
13. Panthers (16). Up three. Bryce Young and Chuba Hubbard beat a Hurts-less Eagles team, and Carolina is seventh in DVOA, though its defensive line is 30th.
14. Rams (8). Down six after losing at home to Arizona as 12.5-point favorites. Both lines rank in our top 11, which keeps them here, but Davante Adams is expected to miss 6 to 10 weeks (Prisco) and their new kicker hurt his knee.
15. Packers (17). Up two after a third straight win, allowing 14 points or fewer in each. Both lines rank in the bottom four, which holds them behind the Rams.
16. Texans (20). Up four. C.J. Stroud’s London drive kept them alive at 2-4; ninth in DVOA and fourth on our defensive line list.
17. Steelers (14). Down three despite winning: Aaron Rodgers was sacked five times in three quarters in Tampa before his late rally.
18. Browns (23). Up five. First place in the AFC North at 4-2 on Deshaun Watson’s fourth game-winning drive, behind our last-ranked offensive line.
19. Raiders (19). Held after a third straight loss. The line is back in our top 8; the run game isn’t.
20. Falcons (15). Down five. Down 31-7 at home to Chicago, with two lost return fumbles; third on our defensive line list.
21. Cowboys (18). Down three. Two more Dak Prescott interceptions, and the worst rushing start since 1989 (Todd Archer, ESPN).
22. Giants (21). Down one after blowing a 10-0 lead. John Harbaugh hasn’t named a starter between Jameis Winston and J.J. McCarthy.
23. Jets (26). Up three, mostly as others fell. Zero sacks a week after eight, and 0 for 3 in the red zone.
24. Buccaneers (25). Up one after another one-score loss, their fifth. Sixteenth in DVOA.
25. Eagles (22). Down three. Jalen Hurts is out for the season, and they have lost four straight.
26. Cardinals (29). Up three. Six Chad Ryland field goals beat the Rams in Los Angeles.
27. Saints (27). Held. Won in New York but nearly gave back a 24-point lead.
28. Colts (24). Down four. Lost at home to the winless Titans, and the general manager was fired Monday. Their defensive line ranks last.
29. Commanders (28). Down one. Came back to within six in San Francisco after trailing 20-3, and lost Terry McLaurin to what they fear is a significant knee injury.
30. Titans (31). Up one with their first win: six sacks, three takeaways and two special teams scores.
31. Chargers (30). Down one. 0-6 into the bye, with Justin Herbert’s league-high eighth interception.
32. Dolphins (32). Held. Bye, and still winless.

Offensive Lines

The Bills hold No. 1, the Chiefs pass the 49ers, and the Raiders return. The Lions drop out after their bye, and the Patriots are held out again, now for more than one injury. Each line is judged on the season: ESPN’s pass and run block win rates, sacks allowed and rushing, both measured against what its opponents’ defenses usually allow, and injuries that change who is available. Win rates don’t capture penalties.

BSL	Team	Pass block	Run block	Sack rate allowed (vs. opp.)	YPC (vs. opp.)	Status
1 (1)	Bills	59% (3)	77% (2)	6.6% (-0.2)	5.1 (+0.9)	Held
2 (3)	Chiefs	53% (10)	76% (3)	3.7% (-2.1)	5.5 (+1.1)	Up 1
3 (2)	49ers	61% (2)	75% (4)	2.8% (-2.9)	4.6 (+0.5)	Down 1
4 (4)	Rams	54% (8)	75% (5)	3.4% (-2.1)	4.6 (+0.3)	Held
5 (6)	Bengals	46% (24)	77% (1)	4.5% (-1.0)	3.6 (+0.1)	Up 1
6 (–)	Raiders	64% (1)	74% (12)	3.5% (-1.7)	3.0 (-0.9)	New
7 (5)	Bears	56% (6)	73% (18)	6.7% (+0.2)	4.5 (+0.3)	Down 2
8 (7)	Steelers	53% (9)	74% (11)	7.5% (+0.8)	4.6 (+0.4)	Down 1

Win rates are ESPN’s through Week 6, rank in parentheses (ESPN). Sack rate is sacks per dropback; the figure in parentheses is the difference from what the same opponents’ defenses averaged (negative is better). YPC in parentheses is the difference from what those defenses allowed (positive is better). Opponent averages are from CBS Sports team stats and the Week 6 box scores, and include each opponent’s game against that team.

• Bills: second in run block win rate and third in pass block, and the second-best run game against expectation. Spencer Brown played through his back in Las Vegas.
• Chiefs: up one, with the best yards per carry in the league and a sack rate two points under what their opponents allow. Both starting tackles are the worry: Josh Simmons has a bulging disk and Jaylon Moore left Sunday with a concussion, and Andy Reid suggested Simmons won’t be ready for Seattle (Nate Taylor, ESPN).
• 49ers: second in pass block win rate and a 2.8% sack rate; down one only because Kansas City ran for 150 on Sunday.
• Rams: held, though Arizona went after backup left tackle David Quessenberry with Alaric Jackson suspended.
• Bengals: first in run block win rate, but 3.6 yards a carry is barely above what their opponents allow.
• Raiders: back in. First in pass block win rate with a low sack rate, but still 3.0 yards a carry, nearly a yard below expectation. Caleb Rogers replaced Jackson Powers-Johnson at right guard (Ryan McFadden, ESPN).
• Bears: down two after four sacks allowed in Atlanta; right guard Jonah Jackson left with a hip injury.
• Steelers: down one after five sacks allowed in Tampa.
• Out: Lions. Eleventh on the numbers, on bye.
• Held out by injury: Patriots, fifth on the numbers. Morgan Moses, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown all left Sunday, after Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten went to injured reserve and with Will Campbell’s knee; New England has started three line combinations in six games and is likely to start a fourth Thursday (Mike Reiss, ESPN).
• First out: Patriots, Colts, Lions.
• Charting against results: Cowboys (2.8% sack rate, but 31st in run block win rate) and Browns (last; a 12.1% sack rate, the worst in the league).
• Watch in Week 7: the Chiefs’ tackles against Seattle’s front, first on our defensive list; the Patriots’ line on a short week; the length of Jackson’s suspension.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Rank	Team	Pass block	Run block	Sack rate allowed (vs. opp.)	YPC (vs. opp.)
1	Bills	59% (3)	77% (2)	6.6% (-0.2)	5.1 (+0.9)
2	Chiefs	53% (10)	76% (3)	3.7% (-2.1)	5.5 (+1.1)
3	49ers	61% (2)	75% (4)	2.8% (-2.9)	4.6 (+0.5)
4	Rams	54% (8)	75% (5)	3.4% (-2.1)	4.6 (+0.3)
5	Patriots	56% (5)	75% (8)	5.5% (-1.2)	4.2 (+0.2)
6	Bengals	46% (24)	77% (1)	4.5% (-1.0)	3.6 (+0.1)
7	Raiders	64% (1)	74% (12)	3.5% (-1.7)	3.0 (-0.9)
8	Bears	56% (6)	73% (18)	6.7% (+0.2)	4.5 (+0.3)
9	Steelers	53% (9)	74% (11)	7.5% (+0.8)	4.6 (+0.4)
10	Colts	52% (14)	74% (13)	6.4% (0.0)	4.0 (+0.2)
11	Lions	58% (4)	72% (20)	5.4% (-1.0)	4.4 (-0.1)
12	Jaguars	47% (21)	74% (9)	5.2% (-2.1)	4.1 (-0.2)
13	Falcons	48% (19)	73% (17)	8.7% (+1.6)	5.1 (+0.7)
14	Ravens	47% (20)	73% (19)	7.7% (+1.3)	4.9 (+0.6)
15	Buccaneers	53% (11)	73% (16)	10.2% (+2.6)	4.8 (+0.4)
16	Cowboys	52% (12)	70% (31)	2.8% (-3.1)	3.7 (-0.2)
17	Saints	44% (29)	74% (10)	5.2% (-1.8)	3.8 (-0.5)
18	Panthers	46% (26)	71% (26)	5.6% (-1.5)	4.2 (+0.1)
19	Dolphins	51% (17)	71% (29)	9.7% (+2.3)	4.9 (+0.7)
20	Broncos	46% (25)	72% (21)	4.1% (-1.6)	3.4 (-0.3)
21	Vikings	52% (15)	75% (6)	9.7% (+3.6)	3.8 (-0.3)
22	Commanders	55% (7)	68% (32)	6.5% (+1.2)	4.6 (+0.3)
23	Texans	49% (18)	72% (22)	6.0% (+0.1)	3.6 (-0.7)
24	Giants	51% (16)	73% (14)	7.8% (+1.9)	3.8 (-0.6)
25	Titans	44% (28)	71% (30)	5.3% (-0.6)	3.8 (-0.4)
26	Seahawks	46% (23)	71% (25)	7.5% (+1.0)	3.9 (-0.2)
27	Chargers	38% (30)	75% (7)	10.4% (+4.0)	4.2 (+0.1)
28	Eagles	47% (22)	72% (23)	7.4% (+1.3)	3.7 (-0.5)
29	Jets	52% (13)	71% (28)	9.7% (+1.7)	3.6 (-0.6)
30	Cardinals	32% (31)	71% (27)	4.9% (-1.4)	3.7 (-0.4)
31	Packers	31% (32)	73% (15)	5.4% (-1.6)	2.9 (-1.2)
32	Browns	45% (27)	71% (24)	12.1% (+5.7)	3.6 (-0.3)

Defensive Lines

The top two hold, the Falcons climb, the Ravens return and the 49ers drop out. The same four measures apply: pass rush and run stop win rates, sacks against what opponents’ lines usually allow, and run defense against what those offenses usually gain, with injuries on top. FTN’s defensive DVOA is back in the table.

BSL	Team	Pass rush	Run stop	Sack rate (vs. opp.)	YPC allowed (vs. opp.)	Def. DVOA	Status
1 (1)	Seahawks	65% (1)	31% (10)	8.2% (+2.5)	3.5 (-0.6)	-21.4% (2)	Held
2 (2)	Vikings	63% (2)	32% (6)	9.8% (+2.4)	4.0 (-0.1)	-22.5% (1)	Held
3 (5)	Falcons	57% (5)	33% (2)	5.7% (-0.6)	3.6 (-0.6)	-2.4% (15)	Up 2
4 (3)	Texans	47% (24)	30% (11)	7.6% (+2.5)	3.4 (-0.6)	-3.6% (14)	Down 1
5 (4)	Lions	60% (3)	29% (17)	8.6% (+2.2)	4.2 (+0.2)	10.4% (25)	Down 1
6 (6)	Chargers	48% (22)	33% (3)	6.0% (+1.0)	4.0 (-0.1)	5.3% (21)	Held
7 (–)	Ravens	53% (10)	31% (9)	7.1% (+0.3)	3.8 (-0.2)	-1.8% (17)	New
8 (8)	Broncos	51% (14)	30% (13)	7.7% (+2.2)	4.7 (+0.2)	-10.2% (5)	Held

Sack rate is sacks per opponent dropback; in parentheses, the difference from what the same opponents’ lines allowed (positive is better). YPC allowed in parentheses is the difference from what those offenses gained (negative is better). Defensive DVOA is FTN’s through Week 6, rank in parentheses (FTN); negative is better, and it rates the whole defense, not only the line.

• Seahawks: first in pass rush win rate and a sack rate 2.5 points above expectation. The offense, not the front, lost in Denver.
• Vikings: bye. Minnesota blitzes on 68% of dropbacks, so some of its pressure is the coordinator’s.
• Falcons: up two, second in run stop win rate. Linebackers Kendal Daniels (neck) and Divine Deablo (arm) were hurt Sunday; neither is a lineman, but both play behind this front.
• Texans: down one after London, where they didn’t sack Trevor Lawrence (Lindsay Jones, the Ringer).
• Lions: bye; third in pass rush win rate. Detroit’s poor defensive DVOA is the secondary, not the front.
• Chargers: held. Third in run stop win rate on an 0-6 team; Bud Dupree (neck) was inactive.
• Ravens: back in, tenth and ninth in the win rates and above expectation on sacks.
• Broncos: held after five sacks and 17 quarterback hits Thursday (AP), without Pat Surtain II behind them.
• Out: 49ers. Tenth on the numbers, with Nick Bosa still out.
• Held out by injury: Browns, fifth on the numbers. Mason Graham has missed two straight games and Mike Hall Jr. was inactive again, though Maliek Collins has a sack in three straight (Daniel Oyefusi, ESPN).
• First out: Browns, 49ers, Rams (Myles Garrett still on injured reserve, and Kobie Turner and Poona Ford hurt Sunday).
• Giants: 27th on the numbers. Not restored on win rate alone.

All 32 teams

Ordered by the four measures weighted equally, before injuries.

Rank	Team	Pass rush	Run stop	Sack rate (vs. opp.)	YPC allowed (vs. opp.)
1	Seahawks	65% (1)	31% (10)	8.2% (+2.5)	3.5 (-0.6)
2	Vikings	63% (2)	32% (6)	9.8% (+2.4)	4.0 (-0.1)
3	Falcons	57% (5)	33% (2)	5.7% (-0.6)	3.6 (-0.6)
4	Texans	47% (24)	30% (11)	7.6% (+2.5)	3.4 (-0.6)
5	Browns	49% (18)	35% (1)	8.4% (+0.8)	4.4 (0.0)
6	Lions	60% (3)	29% (17)	8.6% (+2.2)	4.2 (+0.2)
7	Chargers	48% (22)	33% (3)	6.0% (+1.0)	4.0 (-0.1)
8	Ravens	53% (10)	31% (9)	7.1% (+0.3)	3.8 (-0.2)
9	Broncos	51% (14)	30% (13)	7.7% (+2.2)	4.7 (+0.2)
10	49ers	50% (17)	28% (20)	6.6% (+0.5)	3.6 (-0.6)
11	Rams	52% (11)	33% (4)	4.2% (-1.4)	4.4 (+0.3)
12	Patriots	53% (9)	28% (24)	6.8% (+0.2)	3.9 (-0.1)
13	Eagles	45% (25)	32% (5)	3.6% (-1.9)	4.0 (-0.3)
14	Bengals	48% (23)	31% (7)	9.2% (+1.5)	5.0 (+0.7)
15	Bears	57% (6)	27% (28)	9.4% (+1.7)	4.5 (+0.6)
16	Titans	44% (27)	30% (12)	7.8% (+0.3)	3.8 (-0.1)
17	Jaguars	57% (7)	26% (31)	4.9% (-1.7)	3.2 (-0.5)
18	Cardinals	51% (15)	28% (25)	7.0% (+0.8)	4.4 (+0.2)
19	Steelers	42% (31)	31% (8)	7.4% (-0.5)	4.0 (-0.2)
20	Buccaneers	52% (12)	28% (21)	4.9% (-2.1)	3.4 (-0.3)
21	Dolphins	52% (13)	27% (27)	2.7% (-2.2)	3.7 (-0.4)
22	Chiefs	49% (19)	29% (14)	4.2% (-2.7)	3.5 (-0.4)
23	Saints	51% (16)	29% (16)	7.0% (-0.2)	4.8 (+0.6)
24	Bills	44% (28)	29% (15)	4.3% (-1.4)	3.8 (-0.2)
25	Commanders	48% (20)	28% (22)	4.8% (-1.0)	4.0 (0.0)
26	Raiders	45% (26)	28% (26)	7.2% (+0.4)	4.9 (+0.3)
27	Giants	59% (4)	28% (23)	4.0% (-0.7)	5.0 (+1.0)
28	Jets	48% (21)	25% (32)	8.1% (+1.4)	4.2 (+0.3)
29	Packers	42% (30)	26% (30)	6.6% (-1.3)	4.0 (-0.3)
30	Panthers	54% (8)	29% (18)	5.5% (-2.6)	5.1 (+0.9)
31	Cowboys	43% (29)	29% (19)	4.2% (-3.0)	4.7 (+0.6)
32	Colts	36% (32)	26% (29)	5.0% (-1.1)	4.8 (+0.3)

Win Totals

The Bears move into the NFC field outright and the Rams drop to first out; the Ravens no longer win the AFC North alone. Dallas keeps the NFC East at 9-8. The projections sum to 271 wins plus the Giants-Commanders tie, with 92 wins and that tie banked through Week 6. Kansas City, first team out in August, is still the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

Division	Projections
AFC East	Bills 12-5, Patriots 10-7, Jets 6-11, Dolphins 2-15
AFC North	Ravens 10-7, Bengals 10-7, Steelers 9-8, Browns 8-9
AFC South	Jaguars 11-6, Texans 9-8, Colts 6-11, Titans 4-13
AFC West	Chiefs 13-4, Broncos 10-7, Raiders 8-9, Chargers 3-14
NFC East	Cowboys 9-8, Giants 8-8-1, Eagles 7-10, Commanders 5-11-1
NFC North	Vikings 13-4, Bears 11-6, Lions 10-7, Packers 9-8
NFC South	Panthers 10-7, Falcons 7-10, Buccaneers 6-11, Saints 6-11
NFC West	49ers 14-3, Seahawks 10-7, Rams 9-8, Cardinals 6-11

• AFC seeds: Chiefs, Bills, Jaguars, then the AFC North winner; wild cards Patriots, Broncos and the AFC North runner-up; first out, the Steelers or Texans.
• NFC seeds: 49ers, Vikings, Panthers, Cowboys; wild cards Bears, then the Lions and Seahawks; first out, the Rams or Packers.
• Ties we could not project: Baltimore and Cincinnati for the North; the order of the three AFC wild cards; the Lions and Seahawks for the sixth and seventh seeds; the Steelers and Texans, and the Rams and Packers, for first out.

What moved:

• Up: Texans +2 (two straight division wins, ninth in DVOA and fifth in FTN’s DAVE); Bears, Packers, Browns, Titans, Saints and Cardinals +1.
• Down: Eagles -1 (Jalen Hurts out for the season); Rams -1 (Davante Adams expected out 6 to 10 weeks, per Prisco); Ravens, Jaguars, Seahawks, Colts, Falcons and Chargers -1.
• Cowboys 9-8: held, and still the NFC East winner. ESPN’s Football Power Index makes Dallas a 66.9% favorite for the division at 2-4 (Ben Solak, ESPN).
• Ravens 10-7: depends on Lamar Jackson’s ankle, against the toughest remaining schedule by DVOA (FTN).

Calls most likely to need moving after Week 7:

• Bears 11-6 against the Patriots (10-7) on Thursday.
• Ravens 10-7 against the Bengals (10-7), with Jackson’s status unsettled.
• Seahawks 10-7 against the Chiefs on Sunday night.
• Lions 10-7 against the Packers (9-8).
• Browns 8-9 at Tennessee, and Rams 9-8 at Las Vegas (8-9).

Week 7 Preview

The line and the model split on three games; we take the line twice (Browns, Ravens) and the model once (Chiefs). Jacksonville, Buffalo, the Chargers and Washington are on bye.

Patriots at Bears (Thursday)

Line: Bears -3, 50.5 · ESPN: Bears 58.9%

Key to the Game: New England’s offensive line on a short week. Morgan Moses, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown all left Sunday’s win with injuries, and Romeo Doubs left with a shoulder injury. Chicago’s defense just got Kyler Gordon back, and his nickel blitz produced three sacks in 16 snaps. On the other side, Caleb Williams is 54 of 60 on throws of 10 or fewer air yards this season (the Ringer), against a Patriots secondary with Christian Gonzalez back.

Our Pick: Bears.

Steelers vs. Saints (Paris)

Line: Steelers -3, 44.5 · ESPN: Steelers 60.1%

Key to the Game: Whether New Orleans can play four quarters. The Saints scored on five straight possessions against the Giants, then nearly gave back a 24-point lead. Pittsburgh is without receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson, so Aaron Rodgers is leaning on DK Metcalf and rookie Germie Bernard. Tyler Shough is playing through a broken nonthrowing hand, and right guard Cesar Ruiz left Sunday with a knee injury.

Our Pick: Steelers.

49ers at Falcons

Line: 49ers -4.5, 50.5 · ESPN: 49ers 79.4%

Key to the Game: Atlanta’s front against a 49ers team coming off Monday night. Michael Penix Jr. was pressured on 46% of his dropbacks against Chicago, and the Falcons lost linebackers Kendal Daniels (neck) and Divine Deablo (arm) during the game. San Francisco is thin at receiver: Mike Evans left Monday with Achilles tendinitis, with Deebo Samuel and Christian Kirk already out (CBS Sports). The model is far more confident than the line, giving San Francisco about what it gave New England at -7 last week.

Our Pick: 49ers.

Browns at Titans

Line: Browns -1.5, 38.5 · ESPN: Titans 50.0%

Key to the Game: Tennessee’s defense against a Browns offense that wins late. The Titans had six sacks and three takeaways against Indianapolis, and Jeffery Simmons forced a fumble and had two sacks. Cleveland scored 13 points against Baltimore and won on Deshaun Watson’s fourth game-winning drive of the season. Mason Graham has missed two games; Maliek Collins has a sack in three straight.

Our Pick: Browns. The line over the model: ESPN calls it a coin flip, and Tennessee’s offense scored one touchdown last week.

Colts at Vikings

Line: Vikings -5.5, 41.5 · ESPN: Vikings 64.9%

Key to the Game: Daniel Jones’ turnovers. He is tied for the league lead with nine (ESPN), and two came in scoring position against Tennessee. Minnesota comes off its bye at 5-0, with a defense that blitzes on 68% of dropbacks. The Colts lost Sauce Gardner to a calf injury, played without Tyler Warren and fired their general manager on Monday.

Our Pick: Vikings.

Dolphins at Jets

Line: Jets -4.5, 38.5 · ESPN: Jets 65.5%

Key to the Game: The Jets’ red zone. New York went 0 for 3 inside the 20 against New England and has 112 points in six games. Miami is 0-5 and comes off its bye. A week after eight sacks, the Jets’ pass rush had none.

Our Pick: Jets.

Buccaneers at Panthers

Line: Panthers -3, 44.5 · ESPN: Panthers 63.2%

Key to the Game: Tampa Bay’s run game, which ranks 26th in success rate (the Ringer), against a Carolina offense that ran for 120 with Chuba Hubbard. Without a ground game, Jalon Daniels dropped back about 50 times in Tampa. Baker Mayfield’s thumb is the question to watch. Carolina needs to cut its 13 penalties, and Jaelan Phillips aggravated a hamstring injury.

Our Pick: Panthers.

Bengals at Ravens

Line: Ravens -3, 51.5 · ESPN: Bengals 54.3%

Key to the Game: Lamar Jackson’s ankle. Without him, Baltimore scored 10 points in Cleveland, and Tyler Huntley went 13 of 24 for 107 yards over the last three quarters. Cincinnati comes off its bye, and Derrick Henry has fumbled four times since the start of last season (ESPN).

Our Pick: Ravens. The line over the model: the pick assumes Jackson plays, and flips to Cincinnati if he sits.

Giants at Texans

Line: Texans -10, 42.5 · ESPN: Texans 84.7%

Key to the Game: The Giants’ quarterback. John Harbaugh hasn’t said whether Jameis Winston or J.J. McCarthy starts after McCarthy threw for 243 yards in the fourth quarter. The Giants have fumbled in every game. C.J. Stroud now has Marvin Harrison Jr. alongside Jaylin Noel and Nico Collins, against a Giants secondary that lost Greg Newsome to a concussion.

Our Pick: Texans.

Broncos at Cardinals

Line: Broncos -4.5, 43.5 · ESPN: Broncos 69.8%

Key to the Game: Denver’s offense. The Broncos rank 26th in scoring and 31st on third down, and went 3 of 26 on third down across their last two games (ESPN). Arizona leads the league with seven fourth-down stops and just held the Rams to 286 yards. Jeremiyah Love (ankle) is the Arizona injury to watch.

Our Pick: Broncos. Denver’s defense has carried an offense that can’t move the ball, and Arizona’s defense just showed it can.

Packers at Lions

Line: Lions -3, 52.5 · ESPN: Lions 59.2%

Key to the Game: Detroit’s defense, worst in the league in EPA per drive allowed (the Ringer), against a Packers offense that dropped three potential touchdowns Sunday. Josh Jacobs comes off the commissioner’s exempt list. Green Bay has allowed 14 points or fewer in three straight games, and Detroit comes off its bye.

Our Pick: Lions. We are taking the home team off a bye, not a judgment that Detroit’s defense has been fixed.

Rams at Raiders

Line: Rams -5.5, 47.5 · ESPN: Rams 66.5%

Key to the Game: The Rams’ kicking again. Blake Grupe hurt his knee in his debut, five days after Harrison Mevis was cut. Their pass rush converts pressure into sacks at the second-worst rate in the league (Bill Barnwell, ESPN). Davante Adams is expected to miss 6 to 10 weeks (Pete Prisco, CBS Sports). Ashton Jeanty has been held under 3.0 yards a carry in four of six games.

Our Pick: Rams.

Chiefs at Seahawks

Line: Seahawks -2.5, 42.5 · ESPN: Chiefs 52.2%

Key to the Game: Seattle’s protection. Denver hit Sam Darnold 17 times and sacked him five times, and Mike Macdonald said afterward his quarterback is getting hit far too often. Kansas City may start two undrafted rookie tackles, with Josh Simmons and Jaylon Moore hurt (Nate Taylor, ESPN), against the front that tops our defensive line list. Kansas City’s pass rush ended its sackless streak with four against the Chargers, and Kenneth Walker leads the league in rushing. Seattle has had 10 days since Thursday.

Our Pick: Chiefs. The model over the line: Kansas City is 5-0 and Seattle has lost two straight, though Seattle’s defensive line was first on our list last week.

Cowboys at Eagles (Monday)

Line: Cowboys -4.5, 44.5 · ESPN: Cowboys 68.8%

Key to the Game: Tanner McKee. With Jalen Hurts expected to miss the season, McKee was pressured on more than 40% of his dropbacks against Carolina. The Eagles have scored six third-quarter points all season. Dallas needs Dak Prescott to stop throwing interceptions: two more Sunday, after two in the second half of Week 5.

Our Pick: Cowboys.

Three Things Getting Little Attention

1. Backups went 0-4. Four backup quarterbacks started Sunday, and all four lost (the Ringer): Jalon Daniels in Tampa Bay, Tanner McKee in Philadelphia, Tyler Huntley in Baltimore and Jameis Winston for the Giants. Winston was the only one benched. With Hurts out for the season, Mayfield’s thumb unresolved and Jackson’s ankle still a question, at least three of those teams could start backups again in Week 7.

2. Penalties piled up on the winners. Carolina was flagged 13 times for 149 yards, a franchise record, and still won by 11. Chicago won through 12 penalties for 133 yards. Green Bay and Dallas combined for 22. Jacksonville’s too-many-men penalty on a punt extended a Houston touchdown drive, its third straight week of costly flags.

3. Winning without the offense. Arizona beat the Rams without a touchdown, on six Chad Ryland field goals. Tennessee’s offense scored one touchdown in a 26-point game. Denver won with 168 yards, its first win under 175 yards since 1983 (CBS Sports). All three leaned on defenses that forced turnovers or fourth-down stops.