If the 2010 O’s looked like the following, what would you expect out of them?
Roberts 2nd
Jones CF/LF
Markakis RF
Wieters C
Scott 1st
Reimold DH
Snyder 3rd
Pie LF/CF
Izturis SS
Wigginton, Zaun, Andino / Salazar, Montanez
** If you want rationale of why I have Snyder at 3rd, please see this blog: http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2009/07/snyder-back-to-3rd.html **
Guthrie, Tillman, Arrieta, Bergesen, Hernandez
Sherrill
Johnson
Albers
Perez
Ray
Berken
Bass / Mickolio / Sarfate
I would anticipate Matusz in the rotation at the end of May, with Hernandez then moved to the bullpen.
There are plenty of questions with that roster. Enough questions, that at a low-point, I could see the O’s winning just 70-75 games.
However, I believe that even in the AL East, 85 wins could be possible, and a .500 record expected.
Tillman / Arrieta / Bergesen / Hernandez / Matusz obviously will not be finished products… all will have their own growing pains… but more often than not, I would expect the O’s to be in games. When Matusz ascended to the Majors, and Hernandez moved to the bullpen, I think the team would have a real opportunity to take off.
I expect Wieters to end 2009 producing on a regular basis, and of course carry that into 2010.
Jones improved from 2008 to 2009, and I would expect him to be even more consistent in 2010.
I think Markakis has had an off 8 weeks, and I expect him to finish strong this year. Ultimately I see him as more of .900 OPS player vs. the .800 OPS guy he is right now.
I think Roberts would probably be about the same as he is now, with slight-regression possible.
I think Scott would basically be what he is now, with slight-regression possible.
I expect Reimold to be a .825-.850 OPS guy that goes through extreme highs, and lows. I think Snyder at 3rd would basically equate Mora’s production at a minimum, and most-likely exceed it. I think Pie has a chance to produce on a regular basis in the Majors.
I think it bears repeating that Pie is a full-year younger than Reimold.
I am not sure I ‘love’ Pie, but I like what he has done as a professional. I know it was the Pacific Coast League, but I do not think his production over his 1100 AAA at-bats can be ignored.
2006 Age 21: 559 at-bats, 33 doubles, 8 triples, 15 homers, 57 rbi, 283 avg, 792 OPS
2007 Age 22: 229 at-bats, 9 doubles, 5 triples 9 homers, 43 rbi, 362 avg, 973 OPS
2008 Age 23: 335 at-bats, 20 doubles, 5 triples, 10 homers, 55 rbi, 287 avg, 802 OPS (23 walks, 54 k’s)
I also would not ignore what he has done in the Majors over 360 at-bats, I just think those ML at-bats carry less weight as they have been at ages 22-24, and not on a regular-basis.
The bench would be strong, and the bullpen would be deeper than currently comprised.
Berken for 2-3 innings will every-bit as good as Baez, and likely better.
I do not think all starters just easily convert to relief pitchers, but I believe Berken would. I think in 2-3 inning spurts, you would see his velocity increase, and be successful getting grounders.
If the O’s went into this off-season knowing they were going to have Scott at 1st for 2010… and Scott spent all Winter preparing for that switch, it seems reasonable to believe that he could be somewhat competent at the position.
If Snyder was horrible at 3rd, Wigginton could take over the position. Snyder would than take over 1st, and Scott would go back to DH, with Reimold back in LF. Same scenario would exist if Pie was horrible.
I do not have any thought that all of the pitchers will come-up and have no problems. They are all going to have growing pains. I just think more often than not, that staff 1-12 would keep you in games.
However, let us build off the opposing premise that the O’s have decided as an Organization that Pie can not start for them, and that they have the OF they want with Reimold, Jones, and Markakis.
You could keep Scott at DH, and you could slot in Snyder at 1st. For 2010, you could use Wigginton at 3rd. You would still need to obtain long-term options for SS, and 3rd. What are you doing to address that?
What I kept saying leading up to the June Amateur draft was, if the O’s did not select Grant Green, that they would wind-up dealing pitching to obtain a SS or 3rd-baseman.
Tillman, and Matusz are not going to be traded, and frankly I do not see a much higher chance of Arrieta being moved. I could see them dealing Hernandez, Bergesen, Patton, Berken, Britton, Zagone, Erbe etc etc… and I would love to see them target SS, and 3rd if they do.
Additional talent is necessary.
The bottom-line is that even if that team above won 81-85 games in 2010, would there be enough internal growth possible to contend in 2011? I would lean towards probably not. That is, unless Snyder worked at 3rd, Pie produced, and the O’s were able to drastically upgrade SS.
This leads me back to wondering what is the better use of time for 2010?
My choice would be using 2010 to see if Pie could handle CF / LF, if Snyder could be adequate at 3rd, and if Scott could handle 1st.
Ultimately, the question of the O’s ability to contend in the near-future always leads back to Tillman, Matusz, and Arrieta.
I do not think any of them has to be a legitimate ace (a Halladay, Beckett, Santana, Verlander, Peavy etc etc) for the O’s to make up a lot of ground quickly. I think if you end up with two 2’s, and a 3… and you combine that with Jones, Markakis, Wieters (and to a lesser-extent Roberts, Reimold, and Scott) that you are right on the cusp.
EDIT: Koji is a glaring omission. If he comes back in September, I hope it is in the pen.. but I could see it in the rotation if they do not want the young getting any additional starts. If he starts in September, there is a chance he starts through next June… but ultimately he is in the pen.I would have him over Bass / Mickolio / Sarfate for now.
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