The Baltimore Orioles have been swept in New York, and started the 2nd-half at 1-5 overall.
The 6 games have been marked by a lack of clutch-hits, baserunning mistakes, and poor starts.
With the 3 game losing streak, the O’s have fallen to twelve-games under .500 at 41-53.
It does not get any easier, with the Orioles scheduled to head to Boston for 3 games starting Friday. Before that series, the O’s and their fans need to regroup.
I understand that I sound like a broken-record that continues to issue the same Public Service Announcement; but come off of the ledge, and remember the things that matter.
Do not accept poor play, poor mental decisions, or poor pitching; but understand what matters and what does not.
If Rich Hill can not harness his mechanics, and does not get out of the 3rd inning – that is a problem. Since you are not counting on him as a piece going forward, it matters very little.
I hate losing, and I especially hate losing to NY, and Boston – but you have to look at the larger-picture.
The Yankees, Boston, and Tampa are set to continually win 90+ games for the forseeable future.
However, regardless of any improvements they make, they are not likely to win more than 90-95 games a year. Those teams are not going to get better by any significant measure.
Obviously, the O’s are on the other spectrum and can only improve.
Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Reimold only figure to be better next year, than they are this year.
Roberts, and Scott figure to essientially be the same, with slight regression likely from Scott.
You will have to replace Mora at 3rd, and Huff at 1st. Finding replacements to match their current-level of production should be realtively easy.
At the end of the day, it comes back to pitching. There is no reason to believe that Tillman, Arrieta, and Matusz will not contribute to the O’s staff in 2010.
In 2010, those 3 (Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz) do not have to reach the levels of their ultimate performance, to greatly improve upon received production from O’s starters in 2009.
If you get 300 combined innings, at a 4.75 era out of Tillman, and Arrieta in 2010, that is a huge upgrade to what you have received in 2009 out of the 4th and 5th starters.
If Guthrie is not traded, than you are looking at an Opening Day 2010 rotation of Guthrie, Bergesen, Hernandez, Tillman, and Arrieta – with Matusz knocking on the door in AAA.
At the latest, Matusz will join the rotation by June 2010. When that occurs, Hernandez will likely have the opportunity to greatly improve the bullpen. A bullpen that could already be augmented to start next year with the additions of Uehara, and Berken.
While looking ahead to next-year is fun, I am not done with 2009. The O’s are off tomorrow, and need to regroup prior to their series in Boston. I think the fan-base needs to step-back and regroup as well.
What I mean by regrouping, is stepping-back and remembering what to be looking for.
I had been hoping that Chris Tillman would have received the start in NY today in place of Berken. I think I was wrong, and that MASN’s Steve Melewski had it right today when he suggested that Tillman should replace Hill.
I think the addition of Hill was a great low-risk acquistion and worth the time spent. Hill had enough of a Minor League pedigree, and produced enough in 2007 to give him the opportunity. 12 starts has been long-enough to see that Hill is not ready to regularly replicate his mechanics. As such, it is time to make a move.
Again, Tillman does not have to be who he ultimately will be, to help improve the team.
Tillman would be replacing Hill, and Hill’s 7.64 era, and only has to be better than that.
Past that, there are other-things to be watching now, such as:
1) There are 68 games left in the 2009 season, including 37 games against the American League East. The O’s should be improving as the 2009 season ends. Are they?
2) If you are regularly arguing that Trembley does not have the horses, are you going to also argue that Trembley should be winning the race?
3) The O’s have players that are marketable to contenders – Guthrie, Scott, Sherrill, Baez, Huff – are any of these players moved before the 7/31 Non-waiver deadline?
4) Between now, and the start of the 2010 season, how do the O’s address SS, and 3rd-base long-term?
4a) If the team is committed to not picking up Mora’s 2010 option, and Wiggington is seen as a 2010 stop-gap option for 3rd; how long does the team start Mora every-day in the 2nd-half? Mora has raised his OPS to .676 from .630 since July 7th. Does he have another magical 2nd-half in him like 2008?
5) Assuming Huff is not traded, will the team offer him salary-arbitration?
6) Markakis has 5 XBH’s since the AS Break, how strong can he finish? In the same-light, where do Jones, and Scott finish?
7) How do Bergesen, and Hernandez progress start to start?
8) How much growth do you see in Wieters, and Reimold between now and the end of the season?
9) Can Roberts buck his 2 year trend of being a 1st-half player?
10) Does Arrieta follow Tillman to the bigs before the end of 2009?
11) Does Matusz continue to dominate AA, and does Snyder turn it on for AAA Norfolk?
There are things to watch everyday with this team, which continues to make this year enjoyable as a whole. The organization is progressing, even if the results do not yet reflect on the field.
The wins will come for the O’s, but it will continue to be a gradual progression.
As I said, what I mean by regrouping, is stepping-back and remembering what to be looking for.
The O’s have the rest of today, and tomorrow to lick their wounds. In Boston, I will be looking to see how the team responds to being swept in NY, and facing another hostile environment.
How the youth responds to challenges and adversity will say as much about our future as anything else.
With Bergesen, Guthrie, and Hernandez all taking the mound, the O’s should have a chance to win every game – even with Penny, Lester, and Smoltz as the opposition.
Even if the O’s lose all 3 games to Boston, there are lessons to be learned, and questions that will continue to be answered.
I again suggest to O’s fans, that they not divert their attention from the questions that actually matter.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.