In March of 2009, I called for the O’s to win between 72-77 games. The range was based on not knowing when Wieters would be recalled, and not sure how fast (or if) the Orioles would promote Bergesen, Hernandez, Reimold, Tillman, and Arrieta.
All season-long, I have talked about how when you can not contend, it is only the growth of the players you are building around that matters.
I believe much has occurred as an organization, to position the O’s for an 85 win season in 2010, and contention in 2011.
I also think there are enough players on the current 25 man roster that you want to move forward with, that you do have to start paying closer attention to the ledger of wins and losses.
The O’s won 68 games in 2008.
Currently, the Orioles are 41-54. When I look at their schedule for the rest of the year, I project the following:
July 25th – 26th at Boston: 2 games, 1 win
July 27h – 30th vs KC: 4 games, 2 wins
July 31st – Aug 2nd vs Boston: 3 games, 1 win
Aug 3rd – Aug 6th at Detroit: 4 games, 2 wins
Aug 7th – Aug 9th at Toronto: 3 games, 1 win
Aug 10th – Aug 12th vs Oakland: 3 games, 2 wins
Aug 14th – Aug 17th vs LAA: 4 games, 2 wins
Aug 18th – Aug 20th at Tampa: 3 games, 1 win
Aug 21st – Aug 23rd at CWS: 3 games, 1 win
Aug 24th – Aug 26th at Minnesota: 3 games, 1 win
Aug 27th – Aug 30th vs Cleveland: 4 games, 2 wins
Aug 31st – Sept 2nd vs NYY: 3 games, 1 win
Sept 4th – Sept 6th vs Texas: 3 games, 2 wins
Sept 8th – Sept 9th at Boston: 2 games, 1 win
Sept 11th – Sept 13th at NYY: 3 games, 1 win
Sept 14th – Sept 17th vs Tampa: 4 games, 2 wins
Sept 18th – Sept 20th vs Boston: 3 games, 1 win
Sept 21st – Sept 23rd at Toronto: 3 games, 1 win
Sept 25th – Sept 27th at Cleveland: 3 games, 1 win
Sept 28th – Oct 1st at Tampa: 4 games, 1 win
Oct 2nd – Oct 4th vs Toronto: 3 games, 2 wins
= 28 projected wins, 39 projected losses, and a 2009 final-record of 69-93.
If the O’s finish as projected above, it is quite possible that Oriole President of Baseball Operations Andy MacPhail, looks to replace Oriole Manager Dave Trembley.
However, I believe MacPhail will be more interested in watching the development of the youth. If they are progressing as MacPhail believes they should, I believe Trembley will retain his job. Until I see specific names of who would replace Trembley, I will continue to vote for organization continuity through at-least the 2010 season. If the O’s were to finish under the above projection, I could get behind a move at Manager.
A 69-93 record would be dissapointing, but mean little overall heading into 2010.
The Yankees, Boston, and Tampa are set to continually win 90+ games for the forseeable future. However, regardless of any improvements they make, they are not likely to win more than 90-95 games a year. Those teams are not going to get better by any significant measure.
As we stated the other-day, the O’s can only obviously improve.
Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Reimold only figure to be better next year, than they are this year. Roberts, and Scott figure to essientially be the same, with slight regression likely from Scott.
You will have to replace Mora at 3rd, and decide about Huff at 1st. Finding replacements to match their current-level of production should be realtively easy, but recent comments by MacPhail point to Huff’s 2010 return.
At the end of the day, it comes back to pitching. It is pitching that allowed Tampa to go from 66 wins in 2007, to 97 wins in 2008.
There is no reason to believe that Tillman, Arrieta, and Matusz will not contribute to the O’s staff in 2010. In 2010, those 3 (Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz) do not have to reach the levels of their ultimate performance, to greatly improve upon received production from O’s starters in 2009.
Wins and losses matter, and should be followed. However, the contributions of the O’s youth to the wins and losses is where the focus should remain.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.