As the Orioles 2009 season comes to a close, I find myself having extremely mixed-feelings on impending Free Agent pitcher John Lackey.
I think there are valid arguments to make from differing perspectives.
From one point-of-view it is nice to day-dream about a 2010 O’s rotation of Lackey, Guthrie, Matusz, Tillman, and Bergesen.
That would be a strong rotation 1-5, that would provide a large quantity of quality starts. With that rotation, you could be fairly confident of having more of a rested bullpen, which would help avoid the team implode in the dog days of summer.
The fact that Berken, and Hernandez would likely be in the bullpen, with Arrieta a call away at Norfolk, are also reasons to enjoy that potential alternative.
The other point-of-view is that Lackey is turning 31 in October. While there might be quality years ahead for him, the reality is he has passed his prime.
By definition, that would mean the O’s would be providing a contract for past-performance.
Additionally, Lackey has spent his entire career as an Angel. I do not see how the O’s would be able to bring Lackey to Baltimore, for market-value alone. That means the Orioles would have to pay a premium.
If you have to pay a premium to bring a player that is past his prime to Baltimore; is Lackey the right investment?
Lackey has pitched 1,480 Major League innings. He recorded at-least 32 starts per year from 2003 through 2007.
In 2008, he made only 24 starts, missing the first six-weeks with a strained right-triceps.
In 2009, he against missed the first six-weeks, this time due to a strained forearm.
For his career, Lackey has a .717 OPS against. In 2009, he is holding hitters to a .692 OPS against.
For his career, Lackey has a 0.83 Grounder to Fly-ball ratio. In 2009, he has a 0.84 G/FB ratio.
He has a 7.22 K per 9 inning ratio for his career, and 7.23 K per 9 inning ratio for 2009.
His control has always been very good, and is still the case in 2009, but not quite as good as it was in his prime seasons. (52 walks in 224 innings in 2007, 41 walks in 155.2 innings in 2009).
Lackey went into 2009, looking for a 5 year $80-$90M deal.
http://articles.latimes.com/2009/mar/26/sports/sp-angels-fyi26
I am not sure that I have the appetite to bid $16-$18M per year over 5 years for John Lackey.
More to the point, with MacPhail’s long-stated mantra of ‘Grow the arms, Buy the bats,’ I am really not sure about MacPhail having the necessary appetite to obtain Lackey.
I have to think that if the O’s Front-office was committed to adding a quality front-end caliber starter, that they would have claimed Scott Kazmir when he was on waivers. Kazmir is owed $20M combined for the 2010, and 2011 seasons, but that seems like a huge bargain compared to the money necessary to sign Lackey. Especially, when you consider that Kazmir is only 25.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.