Brian Roberts 2009 Review

As the 2009 O’s season comes to an end, I am going to review the results of a number of the prominent players you plan to move forward with.

I will start this review, with the Orioles normal lead-off hitter.

Roberts turns 32 on October 9th.

To start the 2009 season, I projected Roberts to bat .295, with 10 homers, 60 rbi, a .815 OPS, 80 walks, 35 steals, and 45 doubles.

With 15 games left in the year, Roberts is batting .286, with 15 homers, 74 rbi, a .815 OPS, 65 walks, 29 steals, and 52 doubles.

Typically known as a 1st-half player, Roberts has responded this year with a .878 OPS in the 2nd-half.

Fangraphs.com calculates his defense as having slipped during the past-year. Let us take a further look at those numbers. To do that, we are first going to have to learn a few definitions.

The standard defensive measuring stick used, is Ultimate Zone Rating.

Fangraphs defines UZR as the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined

UZR is calculated by adding the following: (Arm+Double Plays Above Avg+Range Runs Above Avg+Error Runs Above Avg).

ARM: Only applies to OF’s, so do not apply to Roberts.

DPR (double play runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, based on the number double plays versus the number forces at second they get, as compared to an average fielder at that position, given the speed and location of the ball and the handedness of the batter.

RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.

ErrR (error runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by the number of errors he makes as compared to an average fielder at that position given the same distribution of balls in play.

Many saber-metric types take that number one step forward by dividing that total by 150, to get a UZR number per 150 games. For these purposes, we will just use UZR.

In 2008, Roberts Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) was -1.3. In 2009, Roberts has a UZR of -4.3.

In 2008, Roberts arrived at that UZR of -1.3, by having a DPR of -2.9, a RngR of 1.9, a ErrR of -0.4.

In 2009, Roberts has his current UZR of -4.3, by having a DPR of 0.3, a RngR of -3.6, a ErrR of -1.0.

So, to believe in the value of these numbers you have to believe that Roberts has seen a significant decrease in his range this year, but has proven to be far superior turning double-plays. Call me naive, but I think the value in defensive statistics remain limited.

There is some information to be gleaned, but I remain steadfast that defense is one area of baseball where scouting has it all over defensive statistics.

Errors only tell you so much, but I think explains what is being shown in the other defensive stats for Roberts.

In 2008, Roberts had 8 errors in 1,320 innings. In 2009, Roberts has 10 errors in 1,223 innings.

This past February, I interviewed the National Baseball Writer Tom Tango. As Roberts had just signed his 4 year $40M dollar deal, I asked Mr. Tango if Roberts was likely to be productive during the duration of the contract.

Mr. Tango stated, “He doesn’t have to be productive for all 4 years. He just has to deliver 40MM of performance over the next 4 years, whether it all happens in the first 2 or least 3 or first year or whatever.”

Even when factoring in-their lowered defensive scores, Fangraphs calculates Roberts 2009 value as currently worth $15.9M.

All-in-all, this has been a pretty solid year for Roberts. He figures to regress some over the next couple of years, but he also figures to still be productive enough to help.