So here we are, four weeks in. If you want a refresher on the models used in this post, be sure to go to the original post this year. It can be found here.
Expected Wins by the Baltimore Orioles using Five Projections (4/29/2013)
| mJS | PWE | mBP | Parcells | fWAR | |
| 4/1/2013 | 72.6 | 81.0 | 74.9 | 81.0 | 81.0 |
| 4/8/2013 | 73.5 | 97.1 | 75.3 | 81.0 | 115.9 |
| 4/15/2013 | 73.9 | 88.0 | 76.1 | 81.0 | 94.5 |
| 4/22/2013 | 75.3 | 90.4 | 77.6 | 90.0 | 86.2 |
| 4/29/2013 | 77.1 | 98.0 | 79.4 | 97.2 | 90.3 |
As someone who likes to write about statistics, it is very comforting to see the run differential matching the actual win-loss record because it means I do not have to deal with hordes of folks who do not understand what run differential actually means in an applied sense.
As everything goes, the two more complicated projection models are slowly trending the team upwards, but have yet to crest above the .500 mark. The models that only use the current year’s data have the team as a threshold playoff contender. It is still early however and we can expect much fluctuation from any of the models.
Baseball Prospectus has slowly been increasing the probability of the team making the playoffs: 5% -> 6.5% ->7.9% -> 11% -> 16.4%. With that in mind, if you are excited about this team…you have good reason to be.
Now for the fWAR.
AL Final Standings by fWAR (4/29/2013)
| Team | Wins | fWAR | Final | Rank |
| Red Sox | 18 | 10.3 | 114.7 | East |
| Tigers | 13 | 8.4 | 104.6 | Central |
| Rangers | 16 | 8.4 | 102.3 | West |
| Royals | 13 | 6.9 | 98.0 | WC1 |
| Yankees | 15 | 6.4 | 92.3 | WC2 |
| Orioles | 15 | 6.4 | 90.3 | |
| Athletics | 14 | 6.7 | 89.0 | |
| Rays | 12 | 5.9 | 84.6 | |
| Indians | 9 | 4.9 | 81.3 | |
| Twins | 11 | 3.5 | 75.9 | |
| ChiSox | 10 | 3.2 | 68.9 | |
| Mariners | 11 | 3.2 | 66.7 | |
| Angels | 9 | 2.2 | 62.2 | |
| Blue Jays | 9 | 2.5 | 62.0 | |
| Astros | 7 | 1.4 | 54.9 |
Third week in a row without playoff dreams.
NL Final Standings by fWAR (4/29/2013)
| Team | Wins | fWAR | Final | Rank |
| Rockies | 15 | 7.9 | 98.5 | West |
| Braves | 15 | 6.8 | 94.6 | East |
| Reds | 14 | 7.7 | 94.2 | Central |
| Dbacks | 15 | 7 | 93.6 | WC1 |
| Giants | 13 | 6.9 | 91.1 | WC2 |
| Dodgers | 12 | 5.3 | 83.0 | |
| Cardinals | 14 | 4.8 | 82.1 | |
| Pirates | 15 | 4.9 | 82.1 | |
| Nationals | 13 | 4.8 | 79.6 | |
| Mets | 10 | 4.2 | 76.2 | |
| Brewers | 12 | 3.3 | 72.8 | |
| Phillies | 12 | 3.7 | 71.3 | |
| Cubs | 9 | 3.3 | 68.5 | |
| Padres | 9 | 0.8 | 54.1 | |
| Marlins | 6 | -1.3 | 39.1 |
Jon Shepherd founded the Baltimore Orioles blog Camden Depot in 2007. In addition to Baltimore Orioles analysis, the blog also focuses on qualitative and quantitative approaches to assessing baseball in general as well as providing mainstream reviews and commentary on substances alleged to performance enhancing. Dr. Shepherd’s writing has been featured on ESPN, and his blog has been part of the ESPN Sweetspot Network since May 2011. He has made radio and podcast appearances for Orioles’ centered programs.